Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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pezsez1
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by pezsez1 »

A vaccinated person in Israel is more liable to spread the virus than an unvaccinated person at this point
Source?

That's really strange because an unvaccinated person in Los Angeles is 5x more likely to spread the virus than a vaccinated person. (And also 29x more likely to be hospitalized.)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by dd10snoop28 »

pezsez1 wrote:
A vaccinated person in Israel is more liable to spread the virus than an unvaccinated person at this point
Source?

That's really strange because an unvaccinated person in Los Angeles is 5x more likely to spread the virus than a vaccinated person. (And also 29x more likely to be hospitalized.)

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm
It's all public information via Israeli gov't. Just filter by date range, vax status, and cases and then compare to vax/unvax population percentages.

The unvax'ed make up a proportionally smaller % of the cases during the summer spike in Israel.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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Also, in regards to LA county. Just took a quick peek at the most recent data (9/14-9/21) and it the data is already looking bad for prevention of inception/trasmission of the virus for vaccinated:

-11,200 total new cases
-4,864 of these were "fully vaccinated"

This means 43% of the cases were of the full vaccinated. So....

43% of new cases = fully vaccinated
52% of population = fully vaccinated
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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The unvax'ed make up a proportionally smaller % of the cases during the summer spike in Israel.
This is almost certainly because most people in Israel are vaccinated and the country is pretty strong with its public safety measures.

EDIT: Just read up more on this, and it's also because of waning vaccine immunity over time coinciding with the emergence of Delta -- which isn't surprising and doesn't change the fact that unvaccinated people who've never been infected are more likely to transmit the virus than vaccinated people people whose vaccines haven't waned too heavily. (But this is why we've authorized boosters for people over the age of 60.)

As more people get vaccinated, we'll see what appears to be higher transmission rates among vaccinated people. This happened here in a highly vaxxed county in MA or something. But this isn't because vaccinated people are more likely to spread the virus -- literally all controlled, peer-reviewed scientific studies on the matter refute that. It's simply because in some places the unvaxxed minority has shrank to the point that most spread is happening among vaccinated people.

This is a great thing, btw. In places where more spread is happening among vaccinated people, far fewer people will get sick and be hospitalized, and transmission is easier to control because it's happening at a slower rate. It also means those places are close to actually reaching what "herd immunity" will look like with COVID. (The virus will persist and spread, but it will be relatively harmless because it will no longer be new to most people's immune systems.)

I mean, just check out state-by-state test positivity rates and compare that with the states with the lowest vaccination rates.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... ly-14.html

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... tion-rates

Here are the states with the lowest vaccination rates and their test-positivity rankings:

1. Idaho (46% vaccination rate)
49.4% test positivity rate (worst in country)

2. Wyoming (47%)
15.9% (9th worst)

3. West Virginia (48%)
10.4% (24th worst)

4. Mississippi (49%)
12.4% (19th worst)

5. North Dakota (49%)
15% (12th worst)

You only really need to glance at the test-positivity rankings to see that most states on the top half of the list are likely to be states where fewer people are vaccinated.

If vaccinated people were more likely to spread the virus, then the two lists wouldn't match up so nicely.
Last edited by pezsez1 on Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by dd10snoop28 »

pezsez1 wrote:
The unvax'ed make up a proportionally smaller % of the cases during the summer spike in Israel.
This is almost certainly because most people in Israel are vaccinated and the country is pretty strong with its public safety measures.

As more people get vaccinated, we'll see what appears to be higher transmission rates among vaccinated people. This happened here in a highly vaxxed county in MA or something. But this isn't because vaccinated people are more likely to spread the virus -- literally all peer-reviewed scientific studies on the matter refute that. It's simply because in some places the unvaxxed minority has shrank to the point that most spread is happening among vaccinated people.

This is a great thing, btw. In places where more spread is happening among vaccinated people, far fewer people will get sick and be hospitalized, and transmission is easily to monitor because it's happening at a slower rate.
Proportionally is the keyword.

I think Israel has around 80% of adults that have been 1+ jabbed in Israel.

An example of proportional:
-80% have been 1+ jabbed
-20% have no jab

-85% of infections are in 1+ jab
-15% of inflections are in no jab

This is an example of PROPORTIONALLY having more cases in getting jabbed vs not.

My numbers are 100% accurate but if u filter the data in Israel during the peak spike (July-august) you will find my original assertion to be true.

This data - along with so much more that is coming out- dispels so many of the false narratives that were being fed to people re: the therapeutic in order to comply to absurdly restrictive mandates/shutdowns in late 2020 and early 2021.

But somehow we have arrived at the conclusion that we need to have 100 of million workers be terminated from their job for therapeutics which are having outbreaks in the most vaccinated parts of the world?

People are not that daft to not notice this. The question is, will the leaders be held accountable? Likely not. But one can hope.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by dd10snoop28 »

I meant to say *not 100% accurate*
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by pezsez1 »

I just added this to my post above:
EDIT: Just read up more on this, and it's also because of waning vaccine immunity over time coinciding with the emergence of Delta -- which isn't surprising and doesn't change the fact that unvaccinated people who've never been infected are more likely to transmit the virus than vaccinated people people whose vaccines haven't waned too heavily. (But this is why we've authorized boosters for people over the age of 60.)
I don't think your numbers are wrong. I just think your conclusion that vaccinated people are more likely to spread the virus is wrong, and -- as I've already said -- literally all peer-reviewed studies I've seen agree.

Studies show that people who've recovered from infection are less likely to spread the virus than vaccinated people, but I don't think that's what either of us are trying to focus on here. I'm focusing on the fresh meat -- people who've neither been infected or vaccinated.

This might sound counter-intuitive, but more vaccinated people can be spreading the virus AND vaccinations can help reduce spread.
Last edited by pezsez1 on Tue Sep 28, 2021 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by dd10snoop28 »

pezsez1 wrote:
The unvax'ed make up a proportionally smaller % of the cases during the summer spike in Israel.
This is almost certainly because most people in Israel are vaccinated and the country is pretty strong with its public safety measures.

EDIT: Just read up more on this, and it's also because of waning vaccine immunity over time coinciding with the emergence of Delta -- which isn't surprising and doesn't change the fact that unvaccinated people who've never been infected are more likely to transmit the virus than vaccinated people people whose vaccines haven't waned too heavily. (But this is why we've authorized boosters for people over the age of 60.)

As more people get vaccinated, we'll see what appears to be higher transmission rates among vaccinated people. This happened here in a highly vaxxed county in MA or something. But this isn't because vaccinated people are more likely to spread the virus -- literally all controlled, peer-reviewed scientific studies on the matter refute that. It's simply because in some places the unvaxxed minority has shrank to the point that most spread is happening among vaccinated people.

This is a great thing, btw. In places where more spread is happening among vaccinated people, far fewer people will get sick and be hospitalized, and transmission is easier to control because it's happening at a slower rate. It also means those places are close to actually reaching what "herd immunity" will look like with COVID. (The virus will persist and spread, but it will be relatively harmless because it will no longer be new to most people's immune systems.)

I mean, just check out state-by-state test positivity rates and compare that with the states with the lowest vaccination rates.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... ly-14.html

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states ... tion-rates

Here are the states with the lowest vaccination rates and their test-positivity rankings:

1. Idaho (46% vaccination rate)
49.4% test positivity rate (worst in country)

2. Wyoming (47%)
15.9% (9th worst)

3. West Virginia (48%)
10.4% (24th worst)

4. Mississippi (49%)
12.4% (19th worst)

5. North Dakota (49%)
15% (12th worst)

You only really need to glance at the test-positivity rankings to see that most states on the top half of the list are likely to be states where fewer people are vaccinated.

If vaccinated people were more likely to spread the virus, then the two lists wouldn't match up so nicely.
The data only shows a point-in-time. That's not very helpful. All the links for sources require subscription too. Additionally, I'm not sure why positivy-test rate would be a good measure since Idaho probably has way less testing compared to other states. Likely the only people being tested in Idaho are those that are already feeling symptoms and/or if their employer requires it (which would be very rare in Idaho).

Anyways, I don't want to get into semantics but my original assertion still stands.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by pezsez1 »

Additionally, I'm not sure why positivy-test rate would be a good measure since Idaho probably has way less testing compared to other states.
Weird, those links opened just fine for me and I don't have subs.

Test-positivity rates are the gold standard because the # of tests are irrelevant. This rate simply looks at the percentage of tests that turn out to be positive. It's actually a far more accurate and relevant metric than simply counting positive tests in an area.

Think of it like a QB's completion percentage as opposed to the number of passes he completed. And we get enough tests from all states to get adequate sample sizes.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by pezsez1 »

Really though, what you should be digging up is just one real study that shows vaccinated people spread the virus at a higher rate than unvaccinated people who've never been infected. I've not seen a single study that found this to be true.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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pezsez1 wrote:
Additionally, I'm not sure why positivy-test rate would be a good measure since Idaho probably has way less testing compared to other states.
Weird, those links opened just fine for me and I don't have subs.

Test-positivity rates are the gold standard because the # of tests are irrelevant. This rate simply looks at the percentage of tests that turn out to be positive. It's actually a far more accurate and relevant metric than simply counting positive tests in an area.

Think of it like a QB's completion percentage as opposed to the number of passes he completed.
I'm confused.

Likely the vast majority of people in Idaho would not voluntarily get tested without having symptoms, whereas people in Oregon might.
Additionally, certain governmental entities, health care entities, and various employers in OR require testing in certain situations. Whereas in Idaho, this is probably much less frequently occurring.

So if a significantly higher amount of people in Idaho (as opposed to OR) are only getting tested because they have symptoms, and/or they go to the doctor because they aren't feeling well, wouldn't that result in a much positivity test rate in ID compared to OR?

Also, didn't OR have a significantly larger spike in cases this summer compared to Idaho? You wouldn't expect that if Oregon had a vaccine that prevented from inception/spread of a virus, but alas, it does not. Obviously, one should consider other factors before making this assertion which is kind of my point.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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You have to look at *where* Oregon's spikes occured. Wasn't in Portland or Eugene.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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pezsez1 wrote:You have to look at *where* Oregon's spikes occured. Wasn't in Portland or Eugene.
Wait, so there were no spikes in Multnomah County and/or other highly "vaccinated" areas? That is easily disproved, unless you are saying something other than what I understand.
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

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Wait, so there were no spikes in Multnomah County and/or other highly "vaccinated" areas? That is easily disproved, unless you are saying something other than what I understand.
Oregon's rural areas drove our spike. The data shows this pretty clearly. Multnomah County's "spike" has been mild in comparison to counties like Baker, Josephine, etc.

https://www.oregon.gov/oha/covid19/Docu ... etrics.pdf
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Re: Team/League COVID Safety Protocols For 2021

Post by pezsez1 »

So if a significantly higher amount of people in Idaho (as opposed to OR) are only getting tested because they have symptoms, and/or they go to the doctor because they aren't feeling well, wouldn't that result in a much positivity test rate in ID compared to OR?
That's an extremely unscientific assumption that's pretty easily debunked by test positivity trends over time.

A better approach might be comparing Idaho's positivity rates with similar politically leaning Oregon counties.
Also, didn't OR have a significantly larger spike in cases this summer compared to Idaho? You wouldn't expect that if Oregon had a vaccine that prevented from inception/spread of a virus, but alas, it does not. Obviously, one should consider other factors before making this assertion which is kind of my point.
I know that COVID was spreading faster in some of Oregon's rural counties than anywhere else in the country at one point during the pandemic, but overall I don't think we were ever among the worst states overall -- and if we were, it was extremely short-lived. The worst states have been places like Florida (which is days away from overtaking NY's death toll), Missouri, Alabama, etc. Idaho was pretty bad, too.

The bigger question is why did Oregon's rural counties get hit so much harder than Multnomah County? The answer would appear to be vaccination rates.

Note: I live in Multnomah County so I've paid especially close attention to our test-positivity rates. They're higher now than they should be (ideal is below 4 percent) but they never reached the alarming heights like we've seen elsewhere. We've managed things pretty well here.
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