Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

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pudgejeff
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by pudgejeff »

oregontrack wrote:i think phalanx is right. and furthermore, i fully expect some team with money to spend and in search of a big man to step up and sign nurk to one of those toxic offer sheets that portland almost assuredly cannot match (likely front-loaded to drive up the luxury dollars paul allen would need to spend to keep him). given nurk's so-so play this year -- and zach collins' emergence -- i am ok with this.

collins, (re-signing davis), chief, swanigan, and god help me meyers leonard as a 5th option inside is still a formidable front line. we lose some of the easy buckets nurk can provide, but that's the cost of doing business.
Hilariously, those toxic offers keep Portland out of the repeater tax as the future years are so cheap.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

oregontrack wrote:i think phalanx is right. and furthermore, i fully expect some team with money to spend and in search of a big man to step up and sign nurk to one of those toxic offer sheets that portland almost assuredly cannot match (likely front-loaded to drive up the luxury dollars paul allen would need to spend to keep him). given nurk's so-so play this year -- and zach collins' emergence -- i am ok with this.

collins, (re-signing davis), chief, swanigan, and god help me meyers leonard as a 5th option inside is still a formidable front line. we lose some of the easy buckets nurk can provide, but that's the cost of doing business.
It's not a formidable front line at all. We've already seen what that front line looks like, at the end of last year when Nurkic got hurt. They suck. The only addition is Collins (and trading Swanigan for Noah Vonleh, which is a push at best), and I don't think anyone considers him 'formidable'. Without Nurkic, the Blazers will take a major step backward on both offense, and especially defense. You can call it the cost of doing business...I call it the cost of Olshey's 2016 summer insanity.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by oregontrack »

once nurk went down last season, we started moe harkless at the 4 and either meyers leonard or noah vonleh at the 5 (save for game 3 of the playoffs, when nurk started and played about 15 minutes).

the harkless/vonleh frontcourt was a giant suckfest, but that doesn't really have anything to do with a theoretical nurk-less frontcourt rotation next season.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

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oregontrack wrote:once nurk went down last season, we started moe harkless at the 4 and either meyers leonard or noah vonleh at the 5 (save for game 3 of the playoffs, when nurk started and played about 15 minutes).

the harkless/vonleh frontcourt was a giant suckfest, but that doesn't really have anything to do with a theoretical nurk-less frontcourt rotation next season.
It actually has quite a bit do with it, since it is mostly the same players. Aminu, Leonard, Harkless. Ed Davis did go down in March last year, but they were 25-35 before that happened, and that was with Vonleh and Plumlee who are no longer on the team. Instead, we have Collins and Swanigan, an arguably worse trade at this point in their careers. It was only with Nurkic (and no Ed Davis) that the team rebounded and finished with an even record, and then when he got injured, they went right back to sucking. Anyone who was paying attention could see the obvious impact he made on the otherwise terrible team.

If the Blazers are unable to sign Nurkic, and I can't see how they will, I expect them to struggle to make the playoffs the next two years. So make your prediction, and in a few years we can revisit this thread and see who was right. You have been wrong the last few years, so you are totally due for a turnaround, dude. Let's hear it! :D
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

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Phalanx wrote:
It actually has quite a bit do with it, since it is mostly the same players. Aminu, Leonard, Harkless. Ed Davis did go down in March last year, but they were 25-35 before that happened, and that was with Vonleh and Plumlee who are no longer on the team. Instead, we have Collins and Swanigan, an arguably worse trade at this point in their careers. It was only with Nurkic (and no Ed Davis) that the team rebounded and finished with an even record, and then when he got injured, they went right back to sucking. Anyone who was paying attention could see the obvious impact he made on the otherwise terrible team.

If the Blazers are unable to sign Nurkic, and I can't see how they will, I expect them to struggle to make the playoffs the next two years. So make your prediction, and in a few years we can revisit this thread and see who was right. You have been wrong the last few years, so you are totally due for a turnaround, dude. Let's hear it! :D
warn a guy before you drop that kind irony. we're only days removed from a *very* embarrassing end for you to that lillard/mccollum discussion.

let me clean up your mess thusly:

1.) harkless is not an inside player. 2.) he is a small forward/wing. 3.) portland was so injury-riddled at the end of 2016-17 they had to start him inside. 4.) being that he is not an inside player, i did not include him in my hypothetical rotation for next season. 5.) now you see why it's strange that you continue to list him in the group of "those same frontcourt players." may as well drop evan turner's name while you're at it.

6.) leonard was forced to start several games at center at the end of 2016-17. 7.) i just want to reinforce that: leonard was an emergency starter. that's how thin we were. 8.) in my theoretical 2018-19 frontcourt rotation, i rightfully relegated him to the bench once more as a back-up's back-up at best, which is what he is right now. 9.) a permanent seat on the bench is very different than starting.

10.) when leonard wasn't starting at center, noah vonleh was. 11.) noah vonleh is no longer with the team. 12.) so far, we've covered three players, and not a single one plays a role anything remotely in the same galaxy from your example to mine.

13.) chief is the only player who plays/played an active role in both of our scenarios, and even then his role was different at the tail end of 2016-17. 14.) he came off the bench and even logged minutes at center, as one is wont to do when you are serviceable and the other available big men are named noah vonleh and meyers leonard. 15.) that being said, i am nothing if not charitable and i will concede you al-farouq aminu.

16.) so that's one.

i can't speak for the false equivalencies you're spouting about this year's rookie class and guys like noah vonleh. that's a strange rabbit hole you've gone down and i don't think anyone wants to take that journey.
Last edited by oregontrack on Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by Duck07 »

Portland does have a 13 million TPE they can use this summer. Say for a team who wants to dump a young player to get a marquee FA like LeBron. Bazz seems like the one we may not be able to keep.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

oregontrack wrote:
warn a guy before you drop that kind irony. we're only days removed from a *very* embarrassing end for you to that lillard/mccollum discussion.

let me clean up your mess thusly:

1.) harkless is not an inside player. 2.) he is a small forward/wing. 3.) portland was so injury-riddled at the end of 2016-17 they had to start him inside. 4.) being that he is not an inside player, i did not include him in my hypothetical rotation for next season. 5.) now you see why it's strange that you continue to list him in the group of "those same frontcourt players." may as well drop evan turner's name while you're at it.

6.) leonard was forced to start several games at center at the end of 2016-17. 7.) i just want to reinforce that: leonard was an emergency starter. that's how thin we were. 8.) in my theoretical 2018-19 frontcourt rotation, i rightfully relegated him to the bench once more as a back-up's back-up at best, which is what he is right now. 9.) a permanent seat on the bench is very different than starting.

10.) when leonard wasn't starting at center, noah vonleh was. 11.) noah vonleh is no longer with the team. 12.) so far, we've covered three players, and not a single one plays a role anything remotely in the same galaxy from your example to mine.

13.) chief is the only player who plays/played an active role in both of our scenarios, and even then his role was different at the tail end of 2016-17. 14.) he came off the bench and even logged minutes at center, as one is wont to do when you are serviceable and the other available big men are named noah vonleh and meyers leonard. 15.) that being said, i am nothing if not charitable and i will concede you al-farouq aminu.

16.) so that's one.

i can't speak for the false equivalencies you're spouting about this year's rookie class and guys like noah vonleh. that's a strange rabbit hole you've gone down and i don't think anyone wants to take that journey.
Let's Review

1. Damian Lillard
2. CJ McCollum
3. Evan Turner
4. Maurice Harkless
5. Meyers Leonard
6. Al-Farouq Aminu
7. Ed Davis (If he signs)
8. Zach Collins
9. Caleb Swanigan
10. Jake Layman
11. Wade Baldwin
12. 1st Round Pick

This is the 2018-19 team as it stands right now, and if my hunch is correct that they will not re-sign either Nurkic or Napier. Barring a seriously creative contract for Nurkic or Davis, the payroll for these twelve guys (plus 3 'stretched' players totaling a little over $5million in cap space) will be $120 million or more, which is right around the estimate for the luxury tax threshold. Not the cap. The. Luxury. Tax. They might have room to pick up a couple of minimum-salary players.

So out of this team, you don't think Harkless is going to get minutes at the 4? From a coach who has already played him there in the past? The only post players on that list that are even in the rotation right now are Aminu, Davis, and Collins. I would bet money Harkless is going to be logging minutes fairly often at power forward. P.S. Harkless is 6'9'', Evan Turner is 6'7''. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the coach doesn't view them the same in terms of which to play in the post.

The larger point is that this is nothing like a 'formidable' front court (a term which often includes small forward, by the way). With Leonard, Harkless, Aminu, and Davis, you basically just trade Collins for Plumlee and Swanigan for Vonleh, and you have the same team that went 25-35 last year before Nurkic arrived.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by oregontrack »

i’m on my phone right now so it’s a little hard to research it, but i think:

extending napier a qualifying offer would make him restricted, so we could at least put ourselves in position to bring him back;

and the vonleh trade gave portland access to spend the full MLE, which should be more than enough to bring back ed and would also cover a bit of napier’s new deal.

if nurk goes, one would think the team would prioritize these two guys. to the point where they would likely aggressively shop harkless, even if it means packaging him with our first.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

Any of the Blazers free agents would likely be signed using Bird rights rather than the MLE, which is used for free agents from other teams. Once the payroll crosses a certain point past the luxury tax, I think they hit a hard cap anyway, so many of the various exceptions become moot. I think you are missing the point though: It isn't that the Blazers aren't allowed to sign all of these players, it is that it is not in their financial interest to go over the luxury tax, give up revenue sharing, and pay the extra tax, particularly for a team that is not in contention.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

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does napier qualify for bird rights? i've totally lost track of how long he's been in the league.

what paul allen will do and what's in paul allen's best interest may very well be two very different things. i don't disagree that a non-contender shouldn't be jumping headfirst into the luxury tax. i've also long considered portland a franchise that considers simply making the playoffs "a win." you know? you follow this franchise, i'm sure you've seen it. with rare exceptions over the years, i just haven't picked up on any sort of killer instinct. i think they're fine putting out a winning product and putting butts in the seats, and paul allen hasn't shied away paying a big price to do so.

at least that's my overall impression of the paul allen-era blazers.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by spacefrog13x »

I still think they resign Nurkic unless another team comes in with a ridiculous offer. When has Paul Allen ever let RFA's go for nothing? they overpaid to keep Batum and Crabbe in the past.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

spacefrog13x wrote:I still think they resign Nurkic unless another team comes in with a ridiculous offer. When has Paul Allen ever let RFA's go for nothing? they overpaid to keep Batum and Crabbe in the past.
Okay, but you realize you just mentioned two guys as examples, neither of which are on the team now for financial reasons, right? I mean, I feel like you are making my argument for me. Let me ask you a question in return: For all of the bluster about Paul Allen's pocketbook, when was the last time he actually paid the luxury tax? Okay, I'll answer my own question: He last paid it in 2008/9, and before that for a couple of years during the Bob Whitsett days...you know...back when they used to be contenders. People think Allen doesn't care about that tax, but then, why did they give Crabbe and Vonleh away for nothing this year?

Because they care about the tax.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by lukeyrid13 »

FWIW we have bird rights on: Nurk, Napier and Ed Davis. We can sign them to whatever deals we want but with obvious tax implications.
Nurk and Napier are both restricted and their cap holds will likely be lower than their actual salary numbers.
Portland with have their Mid-Level but depending on when they try and use it, it will likely be the taxpayer mid-level which is smaller than a regular MLE. I would be very surprised if we re-signed all three players, and a rookie and/or use the MLE or the 13 million dollar TPE. If we did all of that and only added salary without trading away any, Paul Allen's bill would approach 200 million.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by spacefrog13x »

Phalanx wrote:
spacefrog13x wrote:I still think they resign Nurkic unless another team comes in with a ridiculous offer. When has Paul Allen ever let RFA's go for nothing? they overpaid to keep Batum and Crabbe in the past.
Okay, but you realize you just mentioned two guys as examples, neither of which are on the team now for financial reasons, right? I mean, I feel like you are making my argument for me. Let me ask you a question in return: For all of the bluster about Paul Allen's pocketbook, when was the last time he actually paid the luxury tax? Okay, I'll answer my own question: He last paid it in 2008/9, and before that for a couple of years during the Bob Whitsett days...you know...back when they used to be contenders. People think Allen doesn't care about that tax, but then, why did they give Crabbe and Vonleh away for nothing this year?

Because they care about the tax.

Ok let me put it this way..when was the last time the blazers let a front court player of Nurkic's level walk as a RFA?

The Crabbe trade was a pure salary dump. The Batum trade was a reaction to Matthews/Aldridge entering free agency.
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Re: Portland Trail Blazers 2017-18 Thread

Post by oregontrack »

that... may have been... the greatest dunk of lebron’s career. poor nurk. poor, poor nurk.
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