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Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:10 am
by Greenblood
So, given that no Pac-12 team will be in the CFP, is it absolute that the ONLY "New Years Six" bowl game a Pac-12 team can be in this season is the one the Pac-12 champion is selected for (most likely the Fiesta)? In other words, other than that one, is it impossible by the CFP rules that a Pac-12 team can get an at-large bid this season to another New Years Six bowl game? Adam Jude of the Seattle Times seems unequivocal that that's the case (https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw- ... ssibility/): "To get to the Fiesta Bowl — one of the famed New Year’s Six bowl games— the Huskies would need to win the Pac-12 championship. " I've Googled around but can't seem to find a definite answer otherwise.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:36 am
by Duck07
1 - Las Vegas Bowl: Dec. 16th, 12:30 p.m. on ABC vs. Mountain West
2 - Cactus Bowl: Dec. 26th, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN vs. Big 12
3 - Foster Farms Bowl: Dec. 27th, 5:30 p.m. on FOX vs. Big Ten
4 - Holiday Bowl: Dec. 28th, 6:00 p.m. on FS1 vs. Big Ten
5 - Alamo Bowl: Dec. 28th, 6:00 p.m. on ESPN vs. Big 12
6 - Sun Bowl: Dec. 29th, 12:00 p.m. on CBS vs. ACC/Notre Dame

Cotton, Fiesta and Peach are at-large selections. Notice the Holiday and Alamo bowl will be played at the same frickin time and those are supposed to be the #2 and #3 bowl's following the Rose for us so this year its more like #1 and #2 but I think we'll find the conf champ get one of those 3 at large bowls.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:46 am
by Alan
For me the three most important things in order of importance are:

1: be bowl eligible
2: with luck a late December bowl, extra practice time is highly important
3: win the bowl

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:03 am
by Greenblood
To get at what I'm really after in my question, let me illustrate with a scenario that will not happen this year.

Let's say a 9-3 Stanford team met an 12-0 USC team in the CCG this year, and Stanford decisively beats the Trojans, knocking them down to #5 in the CFP Rankings and therefore no CFP for any Pac-12 team. Stanford is the conference champ and gets chosen for the Fiesta. So a #5 USC team wouldn't get an at-large bid to one of the three remaining non playoff NY6 bowls? Are the rules for CFP seedings that hard and fast?

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:09 am
by Alan
Greenblood wrote:To get at what I'm really after in my question, let me illustrate with a scenario that will not happen this year.

Let's say a 9-3 Stanford team met an 12-0 USC team in the CCG this year, and Stanford decisively beats the Trojans, knocking them down to #5 in the CFP Rankings and therefore no CFP for any Pac-12 team. Stanford is the conference champ and gets chosen for the Fiesta. So a #5 USC team wouldn't get an at-large bid to one of the three remaining non playoff NY6 bowls? Are the rules for CFP seedings that hard and fast?
If I'm following what you are saying, Ohio St did it last year, Penn won the Big 10 and CFP chose Ohio St as one of the four. MYbe I didn't understand your question.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:54 am
by Greenblood
But in that case, tOSU made the Playoff. I'm talking about a situation where the conference does NOT (the situation the Pac-12 faces this year) have a CFP representative. Can a team other than the conference champ in that scenario get an at-large bid to one of the three remaining NY6 bowls?

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:24 pm
by Duck07
Greenblood wrote:But in that case, tOSU made the Playoff. I'm talking about a situation where the conference does NOT (the situation the Pac-12 faces this year) have a CFP representative. Can a team other than the conference champ in that scenario get an at-large bid to one of the three remaining NY6 bowls?
So my understanding is this. The Rose Bowl is a CFP game this season so there is no auto-bid for the P12 Champ to play in another January Bowl game (but there is a strong preference for those Bowl Games to take a Conf Champion, but not a requirement.)

So whoever wins the P12 CG likely goes to Fiesta but it's not out of the realm for a 10-2 washingtwelve to miss the CG game but make a January game. It just seems unlikely because those other at-large games are east coast games and unlikely to take the poodles. They aren't going to out-travel and spend a Notre Dame or Ohio State or Georgia etc.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:43 pm
by Greenblood
Duck07 wrote:
Greenblood wrote:But in that case, tOSU made the Playoff. I'm talking about a situation where the conference does NOT (the situation the Pac-12 faces this year) have a CFP representative. Can a team other than the conference champ in that scenario get an at-large bid to one of the three remaining NY6 bowls?
So my understanding is this. The Rose Bowl is a CFP game this season so there is no auto-bid for the P12 Champ to play in another January Bowl game (but there is a strong preference for those Bowl Games to take a Conf Champion, but not a requirement.)

So whoever wins the P12 CG likely goes to Fiesta but it's not out of the realm for a 10-2 washingtwelve to miss the CG game but make a January game. It just seems unlikely because those other at-large games are east coast games and unlikely to take the poodles. They aren't going to out-travel and spend a Notre Dame or Ohio State or Georgia etc.
Thanks. Now you're really getting at my (unspoken in this thread) issue: Can UW still get into a NY6 game if it beats Utah and WSU but doesn't make the CCG? Sounds like you're saying very unlikely but not impossible. If I could choose between a 10-2 UW and a 10-3 UW that lost in the CCG, I'd probably choose the latter, as that would seem to ensure it gets left out of the NY6.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 1:26 pm
by J-Boy
"Participants in the New Year’s Bowls

Both participants in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls are contracted outside the playoff arrange­ment (Big Ten and Pac-12 to Rose Bowl; SEC and Big 12 to Sugar Bowl; ACC to Orange Bowl against the highest ranked available team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame). If a conference champion qualifies for the playoff, then the bowl will choose a replacement from that conference. When those bowls host the semifinals and their contracted conference champions do not qualify, then the dis­placed champion(s) will play in one of the other New Year’s bowls.

When not hosting semifinals, the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach Bowls will welcome displaced conference champions and the top-ranked champion from a non-contract conference (Group of 5). The highest-ranked available teams will fill any other berths. The selection committee will make the pairings."


How I read this is the Pac-12 champ is guaranteed a NY6 bowl. Once the 5 P5 Conf champs and top G5 conf champ are slotted, the CFP committee selects the remaining spots based on final rankings and bowl affiliations. So in theory, if UW is ranked high enough they could get in

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:23 am
by Greenblood
Here are Wilner's latest projections. The outcome of the ND @ Stanford game will be key, as of course will be that of the Apple Cup.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/21/b ... ome-chaos/

Btw, per Wilner in an earlier piece (https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw- ... lamo-bowl/), he says that, in order for the Pac-12 to get an at-large team into a NY6 bowl, "The conference would have to place a non-champion in the top six or eight of the final CFP rankings." I don't really understand the "or" part, but mostly I'm relieved that it looks like there's no possible way for UW to earn a NY6 invitation, since it seems impossible that they could jump from their current #18 spot in the CFP (as of last week) to #8.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:55 am
by Duck07
So Wilner sees us in the Cactus and Stanford in the Vegas bowl. Right now I think that'd pit us against KSU.

Re: Pac-12 Bowl Scenarios

Posted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:22 am
by Greenblood
Here's a quick roundup of bowl projections from the "national" sites. Kind of a mixed bag for the Ducks, mostly either Vegas or Cactus, though CBS has us in the Cactus vs. WV. One of these even has us in the Independence. But I think people like Wilner are more tuned in that it's pretty solid that we'll be in the Cactus assuming a victory this Saturday.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootba ... redictions

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... tions-2017

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 884250001/

https://www.si.com/college-football/201 ... f-rankings