2019 Watch out for the Giants

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Phalanx
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2019 Watch out for the Giants

Post by Phalanx »

As we all know, baseball was created to fill in the sports year between college football seasons. Looking at the meager offerings so far on that topic though, it seems like most guys here are Mariner fans and down in the dumps because after selling off all of their good players, for some reason they are awful this year. So I thought I might introduce an alternative team for everyone to watch, the San Francisco Giants.

A little background for those who haven't been paying attention. At the end of May, the Giants (22-34) actually had a worse record than the Mariners (25-35). Besides having to endure mockery and scorn, there was also the indignity of reading the latest team who might be interested in poaching our best players, including our beloved MadBum. Now, I understand that some fans of other teams don't like Bumgarner - he can be a bit surly sometimes for seemingly petty things - but for Giants fans, the dude is somewhere between Babe Ruth and Paul Bunyan. Aside from his central role in winning three world series rings (including pretty much single-handedly in 2014), the dude hits home runs, he intimidates the heck out of batters, and he chops down trees with his bare hands. It makes me ill just thinking about the possibility of him being traded, but that is all we have been reading about for the last few months.

Since the beginning of June, however, there has been kind of an interesting development. This team that was formerly mired in the cellar has started winning. They are 23-15 in that period, and have won 11 of their last 14, having just swept a double-header in Denver last night, one of the hardest places to win in the Majors. They are still in fifth/last place in their division, but the margin is so slim, they might even be tied for third after tonight's game. More importantly, they are only 3 games out of the wild card race. In the NL, there is a large pack of teams hovering just over and under .500, and the Giants have joined that pack. Besides MadBum, they still have the core position players who won World Series: Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, and even the Panda, Pablo Sandoval is back with the team. They may not be the players they once were, but for a fan, there is always the feeling that whatever voodoo they used to win before might still be there. The potential for an amazing season is definitely there. They also have assembled one of the deeper bullpens in baseball, which was a key to winning those three rings before.

So, with the July 31 trade deadline looming, the burning questions now are:
1. Have the Giants won enough to dissuade management from trading away our chances of winning this year,
2. Can the Giants keep winning with this roster,
3. Does Bumgarner still have some postseason magic left in the tank if they can somehow get to the Wild Card game.

I think these question are enough to provide interest and even excitement for those poor Mariner fans among you who are feeling like all is lost. I will tell you that i am not a Mariner fan, but that 1995 season was amazing, and I was definitely following every game down the stretch of that season. The Giants are now here to return that favor for you.

Go Giants!
duckfan22
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

Post by duckfan22 »

Not a Giants fan. But i dont hate them. Would be awesome for them to storm back
and win the division. I have a co-worker who is a die hard obnxious dodger fan. He reminds
me of a huskie fan. And a close fan that is also a dodger fan (i know i should change friends).
They have been really a nagging pain in the arse this year. As for me i have been since the mid
sixties and early 70's a cardinal and red sox fan.. have not waiverd ever. good luck to you and giants.
droop10
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

Post by droop10 »

Not to be a debbie downer, but the Giants will definitely not be winning the division, and are as much smoke and mirrors right now as the Mariners were early in the season. Their run differential sits at -45, which is right between the Mets and Pirates, 2 other non-contenders. If it weren't for being +23 the last 3 games, they'd be right next to the Royals in run differential, and the Royals are an atrocious team.

It just comes down the fact that the Giants can't hit. Their pen is actually pretty good, and their pitching is middle of the road, but they simply won't consistently score runs often enough to be competitive. As you mentioned, all of those guys above are past their prime, and a shell of themselves. Sandoval had a bit of a resurgence early in the season, but it's all about regression to the mean, and he's come back down to earth, hitting .208 with a .674 OPS over the last month.

The smart thing for them to do would be to sell whatever assets they have and build up a minor league system that, as usual, ranks near the bottom of the league. If they let these vets go without getting any compensation in return, it will only extend their rebuild that much further, and it will have been for naught. As it stands, even in the midst of this hot streak, they have a 2.8% change of reaching the postseason. Yes, baseball's postseason can be a bit of a crapshoot, but I just don't think they have the horses to win a postseason series in the off chance they made it.

Sell, sell, sell. As a Braves fan, it was very frustrating when they dismantled a fairly competitive team 5 years back, but I'm glad they chose to tear it down. It sped up the rebuild, and even though they had a few lean years, it's worth it to know they will likely be competitive for years to come with the amount of young talent they have, and a top 3 farm system in baseball to consistently restock the major league team.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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droop10 wrote:Not to be a debbie downer, but the Giants will definitely not be winning the division, and are as much smoke and mirrors right now as the Mariners were early in the season. Their run differential sits at -45, which is right between the Mets and Pirates, 2 other non-contenders. If it weren't for being +23 the last 3 games, they'd be right next to the Royals in run differential, and the Royals are an atrocious team.

It just comes down the fact that the Giants can't hit. Their pen is actually pretty good, and their pitching is middle of the road, but they simply won't consistently score runs often enough to be competitive. As you mentioned, all of those guys above are past their prime, and a shell of themselves. Sandoval had a bit of a resurgence early in the season, but it's all about regression to the mean, and he's come back down to earth, hitting .208 with a .674 OPS over the last month.

The smart thing for them to do would be to sell whatever assets they have and build up a minor league system that, as usual, ranks near the bottom of the league. If they let these vets go without getting any compensation in return, it will only extend their rebuild that much further, and it will have been for naught. As it stands, even in the midst of this hot streak, they have a 2.8% change of reaching the postseason. Yes, baseball's postseason can be a bit of a crapshoot, but I just don't think they have the horses to win a postseason series in the off chance they made it.

Sell, sell, sell. As a Braves fan, it was very frustrating when they dismantled a fairly competitive team 5 years back, but I'm glad they chose to tear it down. It sped up the rebuild, and even though they had a few lean years, it's worth it to know they will likely be competitive for years to come with the amount of young talent they have, and a top 3 farm system in baseball to consistently restock the major league team.
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Phalanx
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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duckfan22 wrote:Not a Giants fan. But i dont hate them. Would be awesome for them to storm back
and win the division. I have a co-worker who is a die hard obnxious dodger fan. He reminds
me of a huskie fan. And a close fan that is also a dodger fan (i know i should change friends).
They have been really a nagging pain in the arse this year. As for me i have been since the mid
sixties and early 70's a cardinal and red sox fan.. have not waiverd ever. good luck to you and giants.
Bless you for your kind wishes. I agree, if you find yourself hanging out with Dodger fans, you probably need new friends. Quite frankly, any Dodger fan who is crowing after how much they have spent in the last decade with zero championships to show for it should probably stop talking and see if they can seal the deal.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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droop10 wrote:Not to be a debbie downer, but the Giants will definitely not be winning the division, and are as much smoke and mirrors right now as the Mariners were early in the season. Their run differential sits at -45, which is right between the Mets and Pirates, 2 other non-contenders. If it weren't for being +23 the last 3 games, they'd be right next to the Royals in run differential, and the Royals are an atrocious team.

It just comes down the fact that the Giants can't hit. Their pen is actually pretty good, and their pitching is middle of the road, but they simply won't consistently score runs often enough to be competitive. As you mentioned, all of those guys above are past their prime, and a shell of themselves. Sandoval had a bit of a resurgence early in the season, but it's all about regression to the mean, and he's come back down to earth, hitting .208 with a .674 OPS over the last month.

The smart thing for them to do would be to sell whatever assets they have and build up a minor league system that, as usual, ranks near the bottom of the league. If they let these vets go without getting any compensation in return, it will only extend their rebuild that much further, and it will have been for naught. As it stands, even in the midst of this hot streak, they have a 2.8% change of reaching the postseason. Yes, baseball's postseason can be a bit of a crapshoot, but I just don't think they have the horses to win a postseason series in the off chance they made it.

Sell, sell, sell. As a Braves fan, it was very frustrating when they dismantled a fairly competitive team 5 years back, but I'm glad they chose to tear it down. It sped up the rebuild, and even though they had a few lean years, it's worth it to know they will likely be competitive for years to come with the amount of young talent they have, and a top 3 farm system in baseball to consistently restock the major league team.
I just spent the morning reading about how the Braves would like to trade for MadBum, so forgive me if I seem too dismissive of your opinion that my team should jettison its beloved players. If you want a pitcher, take Mark Melancon. He's really, really good, I promise.

The three World Series winning Giants teams were never great hitters. Sandoval, for instance, has usually had a mid-season lull before bringing it in the playoffs. It was always all about timely hitting and a knack for getting just what they needed to win. Winning the division was also never a requirement; they won in 2014 by getting to the 2nd Wild Card slot and beating everyone in their path from there. They were never favored to win it all in any of those years. You mentioned 'reversion to the mean', but I think that is exactly what is happening now. Posey and Crawford are starting to hit like their old selves again after getting a really bad start. That run differential is quickly changing.

The Wild Card spot is there for the taking. I think the Giants run has been long enough that it is more than just a fluke. They are getting healthy and showing that they are a better team than their start. It's possible that everything goes sideways from here, but that is part of the fun of baseball. You just never know. I'm really hoping the team stays together and keeps on trucking. There is bound to be a break up soon anyway with Bochy leaving and MadBum hitting free agency. I would really like to see them do one last hurrah.

As I am writing, San Diego is losing 3-7 in the fifth to the Marlins. If that result holds, a Giant win tonight would vault them from 5th to 3rd in the NL West. Hopefully management sees that they are in the hunt and doesn't douse the fire just when it is starting to get hot.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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Phalanx wrote:
droop10 wrote:Not to be a debbie downer, but the Giants will definitely not be winning the division, and are as much smoke and mirrors right now as the Mariners were early in the season. Their run differential sits at -45, which is right between the Mets and Pirates, 2 other non-contenders. If it weren't for being +23 the last 3 games, they'd be right next to the Royals in run differential, and the Royals are an atrocious team.

It just comes down the fact that the Giants can't hit. Their pen is actually pretty good, and their pitching is middle of the road, but they simply won't consistently score runs often enough to be competitive. As you mentioned, all of those guys above are past their prime, and a shell of themselves. Sandoval had a bit of a resurgence early in the season, but it's all about regression to the mean, and he's come back down to earth, hitting .208 with a .674 OPS over the last month.

The smart thing for them to do would be to sell whatever assets they have and build up a minor league system that, as usual, ranks near the bottom of the league. If they let these vets go without getting any compensation in return, it will only extend their rebuild that much further, and it will have been for naught. As it stands, even in the midst of this hot streak, they have a 2.8% change of reaching the postseason. Yes, baseball's postseason can be a bit of a crapshoot, but I just don't think they have the horses to win a postseason series in the off chance they made it.

Sell, sell, sell. As a Braves fan, it was very frustrating when they dismantled a fairly competitive team 5 years back, but I'm glad they chose to tear it down. It sped up the rebuild, and even though they had a few lean years, it's worth it to know they will likely be competitive for years to come with the amount of young talent they have, and a top 3 farm system in baseball to consistently restock the major league team.
I just spent the morning reading about how the Braves would like to trade for MadBum, so forgive me if I seem too dismissive of your opinion that my team should jettison its beloved players. If you want a pitcher, take Mark Melancon. He's really, really good, I promise.

The three World Series winning Giants teams were never great hitters. Sandoval, for instance, has usually had a mid-season lull before bringing it in the playoffs. It was always all about timely hitting and a knack for getting just what they needed to win. Winning the division was also never a requirement; they won in 2014 by getting to the 2nd Wild Card slot and beating everyone in their path from there. They were never favored to win it all in any of those years. You mentioned 'reversion to the mean', but I think that is exactly what is happening now. Posey and Crawford are starting to hit like their old selves again after getting a really bad start. That run differential is quickly changing.

The Wild Card spot is there for the taking. I think the Giants run has been long enough that it is more than just a fluke. They are getting healthy and showing that they are a better team than their start. It's possible that everything goes sideways from here, but that is part of the fun of baseball. You just never know. I'm really hoping the team stays together and keeps on trucking. There is bound to be a break up soon anyway with Bochy leaving and MadBum hitting free agency. I would really like to see them do one last hurrah.

As I am writing, San Diego is losing 3-7 in the fifth to the Marlins. If that result holds, a Giant win tonight would vault them from 5th to 3rd in the NL West. Hopefully management sees that they are in the hunt and doesn't douse the fire just when it is starting to get hot.
I can appreciate the fandom, and wanting to believe they can make a run. Hell, even in the Braves down years, they hovered around .500 for half of the season, and I convinced myself that maybe it was possible. Then, their true talent level shown through and they quickly faded. Honestly, while Bumgarner would be nice for the Braves, I don't want them to give up a top 5 prospect for a guy that isn't as dominant as he once was, and could possibly leave at the end of the season with no compensation. If the Braves were to offer that for he and Will Smith (I think they'd be looking to package both, as the Braves desperately need to upgrade their pen), the Giants should jump all over it. They only have 1 prospect in the top 200 in baseball. That's a horrible sign for their future, granted Sabean always had a garbage farm system, but struck gold with a few guys here and there (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Sandoval).

Posey's power has been sapped from the number of injuries over the years, and he's not the same player. Especially with catchers, it's bound to happen over time. It's not a dig on him, just the way it is. Crawford's regression to the mean would indicate that he would be a light hitting shortstop that plays solid defense. At his peak, he was an average offensive shortstop. They have the absolute worst offensive outfield in baseball, and as it stands, don't really have the prospects to trade to outbid other teams and improve significantly.

I understand hating to see your favorite players go. Over the years, as the Braves payroll was dictated by the corporation that owns them and doesn't give a s*** about the team, I've had to see many people go that I would have loved to see them keep. However, when the writing is on the wall, it's best to get some kind of compensation for that player, rather than let him leave for nothing. Bumgarner may bring back a compensation pick for next year's draft, but I feel like they can get more value than that from him on the trade market, given the need for pitching for many of the contenders.

If they can get decent prospects for bullpen guys, they should jump all over it. Most bullpen guys are a crapshoot. They can be lights out one year, disastrous the next. Anytime you can get value out of a middle reliever or setup guy, it makes sense to trade him. If you're a team that doesn't expect to contend in the next couple of years, trade the star closer for as much value as possible, as well. As wrecked as bullpens are across baseball this year, they can really improve their farm system by trading these pen guys.

Does it suck to watch a team that's non-competitive? Absolutely, but sometimes it helps to see the long-term benefit, which is seeing 2-3 years of a shitty team, as opposed to 5-6, which is what they'll be staring at if they don't use this opportunity to trade these vets.

I understand not everyone will have the same view point as me. It does suck to see a team tank, but I also love watching young guys develop, so I still found joy in watching the Braves during the lean years as they brought up the exciting, young prospects. I do get that the Giants payroll may not be as limited as the Braves, but it's still not comparable to teams like the Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees, who will just spend enormous amounts to fill all positions on the field. In that event, you have to have a great farm system. Hell, even those teams spend a ton on the international market, which helps keep their farm systems fairly well stocked. In today's game, you cannot succeed long-term without a decent farm system.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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droop10 wrote:
I can appreciate the fandom, and wanting to believe they can make a run. Hell, even in the Braves down years, they hovered around .500 for half of the season, and I convinced myself that maybe it was possible. Then, their true talent level shown through and they quickly faded. Honestly, while Bumgarner would be nice for the Braves, I don't want them to give up a top 5 prospect for a guy that isn't as dominant as he once was, and could possibly leave at the end of the season with no compensation. If the Braves were to offer that for he and Will Smith (I think they'd be looking to package both, as the Braves desperately need to upgrade their pen), the Giants should jump all over it. They only have 1 prospect in the top 200 in baseball. That's a horrible sign for their future, granted Sabean always had a garbage farm system, but struck gold with a few guys here and there (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Sandoval).

Posey's power has been sapped from the number of injuries over the years, and he's not the same player. Especially with catchers, it's bound to happen over time. It's not a dig on him, just the way it is. Crawford's regression to the mean would indicate that he would be a light hitting shortstop that plays solid defense. At his peak, he was an average offensive shortstop. They have the absolute worst offensive outfield in baseball, and as it stands, don't really have the prospects to trade to outbid other teams and improve significantly.

I understand hating to see your favorite players go. Over the years, as the Braves payroll was dictated by the corporation that owns them and doesn't give a s*** about the team, I've had to see many people go that I would have loved to see them keep. However, when the writing is on the wall, it's best to get some kind of compensation for that player, rather than let him leave for nothing. Bumgarner may bring back a compensation pick for next year's draft, but I feel like they can get more value than that from him on the trade market, given the need for pitching for many of the contenders.

If they can get decent prospects for bullpen guys, they should jump all over it. Most bullpen guys are a crapshoot. They can be lights out one year, disastrous the next. Anytime you can get value out of a middle reliever or setup guy, it makes sense to trade him. If you're a team that doesn't expect to contend in the next couple of years, trade the star closer for as much value as possible, as well. As wrecked as bullpens are across baseball this year, they can really improve their farm system by trading these pen guys.

Does it suck to watch a team that's non-competitive? Absolutely, but sometimes it helps to see the long-term benefit, which is seeing 2-3 years of a shitty team, as opposed to 5-6, which is what they'll be staring at if they don't use this opportunity to trade these vets.

I understand not everyone will have the same view point as me. It does suck to see a team tank, but I also love watching young guys develop, so I still found joy in watching the Braves during the lean years as they brought up the exciting, young prospects. I do get that the Giants payroll may not be as limited as the Braves, but it's still not comparable to teams like the Dodgers/Red Sox/Yankees, who will just spend enormous amounts to fill all positions on the field. In that event, you have to have a great farm system. Hell, even those teams spend a ton on the international market, which helps keep their farm systems fairly well stocked. In today's game, you cannot succeed long-term without a decent farm system.
Lalalala, can't hear you trying to steal MadBum AND Will Smith...too busy watching the Giants win. The third place Giants, only three games out from the playoffs, winners of 12 out of the last 15.

Fandom aside though, I think if this run continues through the next two weeks, and they get above .500 it would be lunacy to trade away players who could help the team win. I could see trading one relief pitcher (like Melancon) just to take advantage of some desperate team wanting to overpay while simultaneously shedding salary so that they can re-sign Bumgarner or Smith, but otherwise, the Giants are too close to contention to be sellers. I guarantee more people are going to games and tuning in now, so why would you mess with that?

I can't speak to the farm system. I know there is a guy playing in Keizer, Franklin Labour , who is tearing it up, but that is only Class A ball. I'm just happy that they had enough of a farm system to trade for Kevin Pillar, Alex Dickerson and Mike Yastrzemski, and to promote Austin Slater. Suddenly, there is an outfield full of guys hitting like outfielders. Who knows if they can keep it up long term, but I think you have to give them the chance to prove themselves. Meanwhile, you can address whatever problems there are in the farm system with better drafting.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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Giants complete the 4-game sweep of the Rockies in Denver, and are now 2 games under .500 and officially ahead of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Colorado in the loss column. Maybe the Braves should be checking out the Rockies' pitchers now instead of circling like vultures over Smith and Bumgarner.

Giants only managed 18 hits today on their way to scoring 11 runs. Hopefully they can work on their hitting some more...maybe take some extra BP before the next series vs. the Mets.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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Phalanx wrote:Giants complete the 4-game sweep of the Rockies in Denver, and are now 2 games under .500 and officially ahead of Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Colorado in the loss column. Maybe the Braves should be checking out the Rockies' pitchers now instead of circling like vultures over Smith and Bumgarner.

Giants only managed 18 hits today on their way to scoring 11 runs. Hopefully they can work on their hitting some more...maybe take some extra BP before the next series vs. the Mets.
Eh, this post does a pretty good of summing it up:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/07/ ... mith.html

As of today, it's still rumored that the Giants are big sellers of Bumgarner and all relievers, which is a sound strategy. It also points out the huge amount of luck they've had over the past few weeks, and the unlikelihood that it continues. Look at the teams they are passing. None of them have been considered contenders for weeks. The Rockies also don't have guys they are looking to trade, as they have young controllable pitching that they'd currently be selling low on. I'm just saying...this mirrors the Mariners thread to a tee, it's just happening at a different time of year. Mariners fans thought for about 2-3 weeks that they had a lethal offense, when it was really multiple players playing well above their means, and it happened to occur at the same time, which is what leads to a hot streak.

Like I mentioned before, Bumgarner is a nice to have, but I'd be OK if the Braves went a different direction. I think the Giants should and will command a large return for him, and I'd prefer the Braves not do that for a starter with half a season of control. I also am not a huge fan of giving a big return for a closer, so I doubt they'll end up striking a deal with the Giants, unless the Giants are simply backed into a corner, because Bumgarner won't accept a deal to another team willing to offer more. (not expecting that, but only way I see it happening)

Those trades for outfielders had nothing to do with minor league depth in the Giants farm. They traded away guys that aren't even really considered prospects, because those outfielders weren't in demand. Again, I understand valuing guys from a fan perspective more than what the actual numbers say. I'm just trying to look at this from an analytical perspective, and the outlook doesn't look promising for the Giants. I think it would be a mistake for them to waste this opportunity to try to get some future talent in their system.

I think it's more likely the Braves grab a combo like Stroman/Giles from the Blue Jays,as I think the price will be cheaper. We'll see what happens though. The trade deadline is always exciting, regardless of what side you're on! Either your team brings in a lot of exciting young talent, or they pick up pieces that could help with a playoff push. We'll see how it goes!
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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One of the reasons I started this thread is that I think July is going to be a very interesting month for the Giants. I did read Passan's column, but I also listened to Farhan Zaidi in his interview this morning:

"This entire season for us has never been a throwaway season or rebuilding season," Zaidi told KNBR. "I think people tried to cast it that way, especially with the way we came out of the gates early in the season and it sort of had that air to it. But one of the reasons we made all the moves and brought up Dickerson and Yastrzemski is we tried to look for a group of players that could get on a roll like this.

"We're very invested in this season and it's been really exciting seeing how the team has played. Every pennant race and every opportunity you have to get to the playoffs has a ton of value. It has a ton of value to the fans and the organization, and we don't take that lightly."

I think the Zaidi is likely gauging what he can get in trade, while also waiting until the last minute to see what comes of this hot streak. There are 12 games left in July. If the Giants can get within a game of the Wildcard in that time, you think they will trade one of San Francisco's all-time favorite players? I don't believe it, and neither does Mike Krukow. It doesn't mean they won't do some kind of a deal, but not MadBum. Can you imagine the Giants making the playoffs and then having to face Bumgarner? Zaidi would instantly become of the most hated people in the Bay, right up there with Trump. There is some accountability to fans.

Interestingly, the team that currently sits where the Giants want to be, in the 2nd Wild Card slot, is the team the Giants play at the tail end of the month, the Phillies. So this could literally go down to the trade deadline before a decision is made.

So I am rooting for the hot streak to continue and the team to force management's hand. In my mind, the more they win, the less likely they will make a trade that damages their chances to win this year.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

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Interesting bit to me about Passan's report: He says that the Giants have narrowed possible destination for MadBum to four teams - the Houston Astros, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins. As of last night's win, the Giants are currently 2 1/2 games back of Milwaukie for the second wild card spot and 2 games back of the Phillies. So basically, the Giants would be giving up Bum to help a rival beat out the Giants. Makes zero sense. This part of the report was actually encouraging to me, since it seems like they can close the gap, at least on those two teams, and make that trade look dumber than it already appears. As for the other two teams, there is a rumor that Bumgarner does not want to play in the AL since he likes hitting. So, sorry, it doesn't look like the whole trade thing will work out. He'll just have to stay in San Francisco.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

Post by droop10 »

Phalanx wrote:Interesting bit to me about Passan's report: He says that the Giants have narrowed possible destination for MadBum to four teams - the Houston Astros, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Minnesota Twins. As of last night's win, the Giants are currently 2 1/2 games back of Milwaukie for the second wild card spot and 2 games back of the Phillies. So basically, the Giants would be giving up Bum to help a rival beat out the Giants. Makes zero sense. This part of the report was actually encouraging to me, since it seems like they can close the gap, at least on those two teams, and make that trade look dumber than it already appears. As for the other two teams, there is a rumor that Bumgarner does not want to play in the AL since he likes hitting. So, sorry, it doesn't look like the whole trade thing will work out. He'll just have to stay in San Francisco.
Bumgarner doesn't have no trade protection against the Twins, so he really doesn't have a choice on whether he gets dealt there. You could argue that the Giants might, out of good faith, work with him to find a place that he likes, but in the end, if the Twins make a lucrative offer, the Giants could pounce on it. The Twins do seem like one of those small market teams that is thinking of going all in to try to make it happen this year. Reminds me of the Brewers in the past, with their trades of Sabathia and Greinke. Small market teams rarely have an extended chance to win the championship, so when those opportunities arise, they tend to gamble a little more. Another example is the Pirates, that gambled last year on Archer and vastly overpaid. If the Twins offered something like Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff (or really either one, plus additional decent prospects), I think the Giants would be foolish not to give up half a season of Bumgarner.

Zaidi is a smart guy. I think he sees the writing on the wall. He's saying all the right things right now, but behind the scenes I sense he's still shopping these guys. It only adds to his leverage if he even hints at the notion that they might hang on to these guys and make a run at the playoffs. That's why you don't just come out and say you're selling everything.

I'm not saying that in the end they don't try to make a run with these guys. However, I do wholeheartedly believe it would be a mistake, and just end up in a team missing the playoffs and getting very little compensation for easily the most valuable assets in their organization. (Compensation pick in next year's draft if Bumgarner leaves) Guys like Dickerson and Yaz are career minor leaguers for a reason. It's a nice story to see a 29 year old guy come up and rake, but it's fools gold in the end. Trust me, I've fallen for this trap before! Not saying Dickerson can't make for a serviceable 4th OF, but he's not going to be anything more than a below average every day starter in the end.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

Post by Phalanx »

droop10 wrote:
Bumgarner doesn't have no trade protection against the Twins, so he really doesn't have a choice on whether he gets dealt there. You could argue that the Giants might, out of good faith, work with him to find a place that he likes, but in the end, if the Twins make a lucrative offer, the Giants could pounce on it. The Twins do seem like one of those small market teams that is thinking of going all in to try to make it happen this year. Reminds me of the Brewers in the past, with their trades of Sabathia and Greinke. Small market teams rarely have an extended chance to win the championship, so when those opportunities arise, they tend to gamble a little more. Another example is the Pirates, that gambled last year on Archer and vastly overpaid. If the Twins offered something like Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff (or really either one, plus additional decent prospects), I think the Giants would be foolish not to give up half a season of Bumgarner.

Zaidi is a smart guy. I think he sees the writing on the wall. He's saying all the right things right now, but behind the scenes I sense he's still shopping these guys. It only adds to his leverage if he even hints at the notion that they might hang on to these guys and make a run at the playoffs. That's why you don't just come out and say you're selling everything.

I'm not saying that in the end they don't try to make a run with these guys. However, I do wholeheartedly believe it would be a mistake, and just end up in a team missing the playoffs and getting very little compensation for easily the most valuable assets in their organization. (Compensation pick in next year's draft if Bumgarner leaves) Guys like Dickerson and Yaz are career minor leaguers for a reason. It's a nice story to see a 29 year old guy come up and rake, but it's fools gold in the end. Trust me, I've fallen for this trap before! Not saying Dickerson can't make for a serviceable 4th OF, but he's not going to be anything more than a below average every day starter in the end.
I am realistic, and I expect that if Zaidi is offered a honey of a deal for any of his players, he will likely pull the trigger. It does sound like teams have been lowballing him for Bumgarner and Smith though, and now he is able to level the threat of holding on to his pitchers with some plausibility. I still believe though that if the team can make any more progress before the deadline, it will force him to hold onto them, especially fan favorites like Bum. I mean, how could anyone do a selloff to a team that is even or below them in the standings? It would be like folding into a bluff. You might believe his words yesterday were just lip service to the fans, but it is exactly that pressure from the fans that will stay his hand if they keep winning.

Yaz is definitely a marginal major leaguer - he almost got sent down last week just before the Rockies series. Slater is only 26 and has been up with the team on and off the last two years, so he's too young to say 'career minor leaguer'. Dickerson is an interesting case. It seems like every time his career was about to take off, he got injured. This might just be the first time he has really been healthy enough to play his best at the major league level. We'll see; it seems like these guys usually taper off once pitchers and catchers figure out their weaknesses. Still, I think you might be missing that the Giants have always won mostly with pitching and defense, coupled with timely or 'lucky' hitting from guys off the waiver wire. All we've ever heard from fans of other teams is that our players were too old, not talented enough, etc. I can't remember how many playoff series ended with the Giants winning and the other team insisting they were better and just didn't play well. The funny thing is now they are saying it while also talking about how many Giants players could help them get to the playoffs. Sort of funny how that works.

This is largely the same team that went to the playoffs via the Wild Card game three years ago and had the Cubs on the ropes but for some terrible relief pitching. Well, we have plenty of relievers now, and Cueto is starting his rehab assignment in a few weeks. Lots of possibility. People assume that the Giants are a 'bad team' because of their bad start. They might be wrong.
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Re: 2019 Watch out for the Giants

Post by Phalanx »

...And here is a report which seems to confirm my own theory...

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giant ... ant-return
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