karlhungis wrote:I realize that the sample size is small but this is how we are doing this year as compared to where we finished last year. I think our new DC is absolutely earning his salary.
Turnover Margin - 26th (85th)
Scoring Defense - 85th (126th)
Total Defense - 65th (126th)
Passing Defense - 86th (113th)
Rushing Defense - 43rd (121st)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions - 9th (122nd)
Interceptions - 3rd (81st) (We already have 6 and only had 9 the entire season last year)
Out of curiosity, I'd like to know where we stood after two games last year compared to two games this year in these same categories. I'd bet there is not a huge difference because our team didn't quit until after the Colorado game. And we went on a historically bad defensive run after that.
I didn't write it down last year but we were very bad from the get go. I remember looking and we were always at least in the 80's on everything and only got worse as the season went on. There were no positive signs at all on defense last year. It started bad and just got worse.
I'm interested because I was going through the box scores last night trying to figure out how we were doing comparatively. We've actually given up more points this year, by just one or two, and our total defense is only down about 27 yards per game. I know we have a better turnover margin this year, and I expect we're probably better on 3rd down, but it would be cool to see the numbers.
I'll keep this running as the season goes on. It will be interesting to keep an eye on.
OregonFan4life -
My source just said Chip is officially back!
It will be announced at Autzen press conference tomorrow afternoon!
karlhungis wrote:I realize that the sample size is small but this is how we are doing this year as compared to where we finished last year. I think our new DC is absolutely earning his salary.
Turnover Margin - 26th (85th)
Scoring Defense - 85th (126th)
Total Defense - 65th (126th)
Passing Defense - 86th (113th)
Rushing Defense - 43rd (121st)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions - 9th (122nd)
Interceptions - 3rd (81st) (We already have 6 and only had 9 the entire season last year)
Out of curiosity, I'd like to know where we stood after two games last year compared to two games this year in these same categories. I'd bet there is not a huge difference because our team didn't quit until after the Colorado game. And we went on a historically bad defensive run after that.
I didn't write it down last year but we were very bad from the get go. I remember looking and we were always at least in the 80's on everything and only got worse as the season went on. There were no positive signs at all on defense last year. It started bad and just got worse.
I'm interested because I was going through the box scores last night trying to figure out how we were doing comparatively. We've actually given up more points this year, by just one or two, and our total defense is only down about 27 yards per game. I know we have a better turnover margin this year, and I expect we're probably better on 3rd down, but it would be cool to see the numbers.
I'll keep this running as the season goes on. It will be interesting to keep an eye on.
Thanks. I'm sure we're going to fare much better than last year.
karlhungis wrote:I realize that the sample size is small but this is how we are doing this year as compared to where we finished last year. I think our new DC is absolutely earning his salary.
Turnover Margin - 26th (85th)
Scoring Defense - 85th (126th)
Total Defense - 65th (126th)
Passing Defense - 86th (113th)
Rushing Defense - 43rd (121st)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions - 9th (122nd)
Interceptions - 3rd (81st) (We already have 6 and only had 9 the entire season last year)
Out of curiosity, I'd like to know where we stood after two games last year compared to two games this year in these same categories. I'd bet there is not a huge difference because our team didn't quit until after the Colorado game. And we went on a historically bad defensive run after that.
I think Virginia was a lot worse last year than Nebraska this year so if the stats look the same, I'd consider that an improvement.
karlhungis wrote:I realize that the sample size is small but this is how we are doing this year as compared to where we finished last year. I think our new DC is absolutely earning his salary.
Turnover Margin - 26th (85th)
Scoring Defense - 85th (126th)
Total Defense - 65th (126th)
Passing Defense - 86th (113th)
Rushing Defense - 43rd (121st)
Opponent 3rd Down Conversions - 9th (122nd)
Interceptions - 3rd (81st) (We already have 6 and only had 9 the entire season last year)
Out of curiosity, I'd like to know where we stood after two games last year compared to two games this year in these same categories. I'd bet there is not a huge difference because our team didn't quit until after the Colorado game. And we went on a historically bad defensive run after that.
I think Virginia was a lot worse last year than Nebraska this year so if the stats look the same, I'd consider that an improvement.
Right, but if you remove Virginia and swap Nebraska to compare both this year and last with one FCS team, we're better by 3.5 ppg because UC Davis got one more td than SUU and the total defense is about 50 yards better per game. We are clearly better this year, but the statistics aren't overwhelming in demonstrating just how far. Not yet. Small sample size.
It was really the Pac-12 season when the Duck defense was really exposed last year, particularly the Colorado, WSU, UW, and Stanford games where we gave up at least 1.5 ypp more vs. each team than what ended up as that team's offensive ypp average for last season. The UW and Stanford games at Autzen were truly special defensive abominations.
Greenblood wrote:It was really the Pac-12 season when the Duck defense was really exposed last year, particularly the Colorado, WSU, UW, and Stanford games where we gave up at least 1.5 ypp more vs. each team than what ended up as that team's offensive ypp average for last season. The UW and Stanford games at Autzen were truly special defensive abominations.
Yep. And the team quit then. Or the coaches totally lost them. However you would describe that. And the injuries started mounting. Basically, we're going to do better just based off coaching and team attitude. Plus, we've added a few nice players. Right now we are giving up 28 ppg and 365 yards ppg in total defense while averaging 3 turnovers. If we can do that all season, that would be an impressive turnaround. But when you look at the schedule, I think the only one of those numbers that can hold is 28ppg. I think it will be very difficult to keep teams to an average of 365 yards pg and average 3 defensive turnovers. Doable. But difficult.
Greenblood wrote:It was really the Pac-12 season when the Duck defense was really exposed last year, particularly the Colorado, WSU, UW, and Stanford games where we gave up at least 1.5 ypp more vs. each team than what ended up as that team's offensive ypp average for last season. The UW and Stanford games at Autzen were truly special defensive abominations.
Yep. And the team quit then. Or the coaches totally lost them. However you would describe that. And the injuries started mounting. Basically, we're going to do better just based off coaching and team attitude. Plus, we've added a few nice players. Right now we are giving up 28 ppg and 365 yards ppg in total defense while averaging 3 turnovers. If we can do that all season, that would be an impressive turnaround. But when you look at the schedule, I think the only one of those numbers that can hold is 28ppg. I think it will be very difficult to keep teams to an average of 365 yards pg and average 3 defensive turnovers. Doable. But difficult.
If we stay healthy.... I think the defense will continue to improve week by week even though the competition will become more difficult. So I think sustaining these numbers is possible. Either way, I am excited to watch the defense again.
OregonFan4life -
My source just said Chip is officially back!
It will be announced at Autzen press conference tomorrow afternoon!
nogerO wrote:If we can just finish somewhere between 60-70th in defensive rankings I will be very happy after last years piss poor showing.
In which stats are you wanting it? I don't care as much about total defense. Things like 3rd down, turnovers, and scoring are the stats I want to keep an eye on.
OregonFan4life -
My source just said Chip is officially back!
It will be announced at Autzen press conference tomorrow afternoon!
nogerO wrote:If we can just finish somewhere between 60-70th in defensive rankings I will be very happy after last years piss poor showing.
In which stats are you wanting it? I don't care as much about total defense. Things like 3rd down, turnovers, and scoring are the stats I want to keep an eye on.
Greenblood wrote:It was really the Pac-12 season when the Duck defense was really exposed last year, particularly the Colorado, WSU, UW, and Stanford games where we gave up at least 1.5 ypp more vs. each team than what ended up as that team's offensive ypp average for last season. The UW and Stanford games at Autzen were truly special defensive abominations.
Yep. And the team quit then. Or the coaches totally lost them. However you would describe that. And the injuries started mounting. Basically, we're going to do better just based off coaching and team attitude. Plus, we've added a few nice players. Right now we are giving up 28 ppg and 365 yards ppg in total defense while averaging 3 turnovers. If we can do that all season, that would be an impressive turnaround. But when you look at the schedule, I think the only one of those numbers that can hold is 28ppg. I think it will be very difficult to keep teams to an average of 365 yards pg and average 3 defensive turnovers. Doable. But difficult.
If we stay healthy.... I think the defense will continue to improve week by week even though the competition will become more difficult. So I think sustaining these numbers is possible. Either way, I am excited to watch the defense again.
I think we'll have to stay healthy, and both Pagano and Young will have to be upgrades over what we currently have getting most the snaps on the DL. Those guys have been pretty good so far, but if Pagano and Young can be better, then that should really be huge.
In some ways I've always felt that a defense is measured by the situations it is put in and how they fare so using stat's is not as effective for me than the eye test some times. Are they in the right place, are they communicating, are they tackling and doing basics? For so long the defense was overlooked because of how well the offense played and when put in a situation where they had to respond and were given no help, they looked like a much improved unit from seasons past. At the same time, in NA's best seasons, the defense kept teams from scoring TD's in the RZ and settling for FG's because that was the design of the bend but don't crap the bed defense.
We look like we're getting to a point where players are in the right positions on the field and now their natural instincts and abilities can take over to make plays. That's what good coaching is.
nogerO wrote:If we can just finish somewhere between 60-70th in defensive rankings I will be very happy after last years piss poor showing.
In which stats are you wanting it? I don't care as much about total defense. Things like 3rd down, turnovers, and scoring are the stats I want to keep an eye on.
For me, its about two:
1. yards per play
2. 3rd down conversion rate
Yes, I think those two are probably the most important. I might add,
3. Turnovers (or maybe "turnover % per play").
4. Red zone defense (however that effectiveness is calculated).
Most useful stat for me is Points per Possession. It allows you to take out much of the the affect of the teams offense on the defense ie Ball Control teams versus Tempo teams.
Problem is I don't know a site that lists it. In a couple of years past I have taken the Top 20 scoring defenses and calculated this stat and then done Oregon and a couple of other Tempo teams to see how they compare. (I have a spreadsheet so you just have to enter about 10 pieces of data for each team to determine the number of possesions they defended, points allowed are already there.)
Of the readily available stats, I like Red Zone defense, turnovers forced ranking and Scoring defense as rough guides.
If I have time. I am going to do points per possession for the PAC-12 teams. I would prefer to do conference games only, but haven't found a good source for the data I need totaling Conference games only. (I'm not going to do each team game by game.)
