Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

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karlhungis
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by karlhungis »

I guess my biggest disappointment is the apparent lack of conditioning. All things being equal, our athletes had the same opportunities to get in shape as any other team yet our guys seem to be getting pushed around and gassed.
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OrTDuck
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by OrTDuck »

I guess it's early to talk about 2021, but, I guess it's really only 9-10 months away.

I'd suggest concern at DB. The way AA seems to want to play, requires a lot of DBs, and a lot from them - in both run and pass defense. Second, the STUD needs to be, at least at times, an impact guy.

Maybe it's been a bit missed just how good/consistent Bryson Young was most of last year at STUD. That and as many as 5 future NFL guys at DB (Holland, Graham, Lenior, Breeze, Wright) and at least a pair of solid back-up/role guys (McKinley, Pickett). PFF's #1 rated DB group for 2020 prior to the opt-outs The 3-3-5 or 2-3-6 (or whatever it is termed) perhaps would have had the guys to run it.

How is that fit looking in 2021? Thank goodness Wright returns. I don't know what's beyond that. James seems to need to make a big step for a guy we haven't seen much this year. Manning doesn't appear to look like he's even going to be able to get his feet wet this year.

Safety? McKinley should be ok, maybe Pickett returns (even then views there have been a mixed bag in 2020), then: Happle? Bennett? Hill? Stephens? Several guys are gonna need to really step up in a short amount of time. Funa becomes an important guy to have a bounce back year at STUD as the guys behind him are probably another year away.

Right now I'm seeing reasons for concern. Good thing is the offense should be productive. To get anywhere there still needs to some "D" though. I'll be thrilled to be mistaken.

Charles Fischer had an interesting take following the game on defensive prospects for 2021: "Oregon has a pretty serious rebuild on defense ahead, and I don’t want to hear about all our great young talent, because the Ducks just got beat by a bunch players Oregon probably never even extended offers to."
Last edited by OrTDuck on Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
OrTDuck
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by OrTDuck »

Some stats from James Crepea.

2019 versus 2020:

* Top 15 in rush defense in 2019 to bottom 7 amongst P5 in 2020

* Top 20 in sacks to bottom 10 in sacks. Behind only UA and Purdue amongst P5 in sacks

* 5 rushing TDs allowed in 14 games in 2019, 10 rushing TDs allowed in 4 games in 2020

* 16 TFL in 2020 ahead of only Vandy, Michigan, & Minn in P5

* Second greatest increase in 2020 in average points allowed among P5, behind only Penn State

* 229 yards to Jefferson most allowed by Ducks since 2015 and 3rd most allowed by anyone in P5 this year
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StevensTechU
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by StevensTechU »

Oregon coaches, namely Cristobal, touted Oregon's conditioning coming into the season, saying it was better than expected and really hammering home how good the nutrition has been. I can't think of any reason they'd lie about that, so I don't know if individual failings on the conditioning front are to blame.
GrantDuck
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by GrantDuck »

OrTDuck wrote:I guess it's early to talk about 2021, but, I guess it's really only 9-10 months away.

I'd suggest concern at DB. The way AA seems to want to play, requires a lot of DBs, and a lot from them - in both run and pass defense. Second, the STUD needs to be, at least at times, an impact guy.

Maybe it's been a bit missed just how good/consistent Bryson Young was most of last year at STUD. That and as many as 5 future NFL guys at DB (Holland, Graham, Lenior, Breeze, Wright) and at least a pair of solid back-up/role guys (McKinley, Pickett). PFF's #1 rated DB group for 2020 prior to the opt-outs The 3-3-5 or 2-3-6 (or whatever it is termed) perhaps would have had the guys to run it.

How is that fit looking in 2021? Thank goodness Wright returns. I don't know what's beyond that. James seems to need to make a big step for a guy we haven't seen much this year. Manning doesn't appear to look like he's even going to be able to get his feet wet this year.

Safety? McKinley should be ok, maybe Pickett returns (even then views there have been a mixed bag in 2020), then: Happle? Bennett? Hill? Stephens? Several guys are gonna need to really step up in a short amount of time. Funa becomes an important guy to have a bounce back year at STUD as the guys behind him are probably another year away.

Right now I'm seeing reasons for concern. Good thing is the offense should be productive. To get anywhere there still needs to some "D" though. I'll be thrilled to be mistaken.

Charles Fischer had an interesting take following the game on defensive prospects for 2021: "Oregon has a pretty serious rebuild on defense ahead, and I don’t want to hear about all our great young talent, because the Ducks just got beat by a bunch players Oregon probably never even extended offers to."
Have hopes for Jaddarious Perkins coming in as a JuCo corner. Only a 3*, but Oregon State just taught us how much stars mean if we don't play with heart.

I think we should consider playing Sewell at the STUD position if Funa doesn't step up and play more consistently. With him, it's between the ears and not so much the physical problems we're seeing with other guys.

DE: Thibs
DT: Popo
DE:Dorlus
Stud:Funa

LB:ISM/Flowe(hopefully he comes back healthy and eager)
LB:Sewell
LB: AJax

CB: Wright
S:Wright IV
S:Anyone but fucking Happle(maybe Stephens can step up?)
Nickel: Hill
CB: Manning/James/Perkins battle.


The biggest concerns looking at this are the safety positions and the defensive line. We have a ton of 4* kids on the D-Line that just aren't developing. It might be time to move on from Coach Joe if that doesn't change soon. The safety position I think got screwed this year with Breeze/Holland both leaving and I'm confident that Heyward can get guys up to speed there with a full offseason. We do REALLY need Daymon David or Bassa to be a hit there though in the '21 class. That, or maybe Manning can play some safety.
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by buckmarkduck »

Our D doesn't have a conditioning problem. They have a trying hard problem. Mainly in the DL. To many guys not playing hard. When that starts happening, you wonder if its time to find a new voice in the locker room.
karlhungis
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by karlhungis »

OrTDuck wrote:Some stats from James Crepea.

2019 versus 2020:

* Top 15 in rush defense in 2019 to bottom 7 amongst P5 in 2020

* Top 20 in sacks to bottom 10 in sacks. Behind only UA and Purdue amongst P5 in sacks

* 5 rushing TDs allowed in 14 games in 2019, 10 rushing TDs allowed in 4 games in 2020

* 16 TFL in 2020 ahead of only Vandy, Michigan, & Minn in P5

* Second greatest increase in 2020 in average points allowed among P5, behind only Penn State

* 229 yards to Jefferson most allowed by Ducks since 2015 and 3rd most allowed by anyone in P5 this year
Has anyone pressed Avalos on this dramatic turn around? I'd be very curious to see what kind of a leader he is. Will he take accountability for this or blame the players and coordinators?
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It will be announced at Autzen press conference tomorrow afternoon!
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GoDucksTroll
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by GoDucksTroll »

I rewatched the crap show that was Friday night’s game and updated my snap count and amateur play made chart. Snap count is not 100% accurate since sometimes I couldn’t see all the DBs or LBs and I couldn’t make out the players number, especially on DL. Except for Fat Mac, that number 3 looks ridiculous on him. Keep in mind that some of the guys missed time with injury or covid tracing or targeting, and the numbers will be lower than actual if I couldn’t identify.

Snap count, +\- a few: ISM 263, KT 261, Lenoir 255, Wright 252, McKinley 225, Happle 221, Funa 220, Jamal Hill 190, Austin Faoliu 172, Noah Sewell 165, Fat Mac 165, Pickett 139, Dorlus 130, Bennett Williams 90, Andrew Faoliu 85, DJ James 72, Dru Mathis 67, Kristian Williams, 53, Popo 36, Adrian Jackson 35, Steve Stephens 30, Swinson 28, Ware-Hudson 27, Cunningham 9, Daewood 4, Flowe 2.

My grades for best overall: Lenoir, Wright, Sewell, Jamal Hill.

Okay-ish: KT5, Adrian Jackson, ISM, DJ James.

Less okay-ish: McKinley, Kristian Williams, Nick Pickett, Andrew Faoliu.

Bad: Bennett Williams, FatMac, Dorlus, Popo.

Terrible: Austin Faoliu, Mase Funa, Jordan Happle, Dru Mathis.
GrantDuck
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by GrantDuck »

I'd disagree in Popo and Bennett Williams. I'd move them both up to okay-ish.

I'd also move Sewell down. For every big play, he runs himself out of a gap.
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Tray Dub
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by Tray Dub »

Haven't researched the game but based on initial impression I'd move ISM down. Almost every time I noticed him he was doing something frustrating.
OrTDuck
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by OrTDuck »

I think there are 65 P5 teams and 127 FBS teams (this year).

Rush D is 58 out of 65. TFL is 62 out of 65. Sacks is 63 out of 65. If you are taking bodies off the LOS, and playing "smaller but faster" bodies, one would at least expect some results defending the pass.

Currently, 86 out of 127 in pass yards allowed. Pass efficiency D has "only" dropped from 14 to 43; but, that's against a 1-2 Stanford team playing it's backup QB, a 1-1 WSU playing a freshman QB, a 2-2 UCLA with a rFR playing basically his 1st college game, and the 2-2 Beavers. That's with a pair of CBs PFF has as potential NFL draft choices.

Whatever the goals of the scheme are, it's hard to argue much of ANYTHING is working. I guess the idea is to keep at it and maybe it works next year; but, one has to wonder if the approach might not be an exact "fit" for the guys we've got (and will have next year), or has been somewhat "figured out", or is at least susceptible to certain types of offense.
karlhungis
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by karlhungis »

karlhungis wrote:
OrTDuck wrote:Some stats from James Crepea.

2019 versus 2020:

* Top 15 in rush defense in 2019 to bottom 7 amongst P5 in 2020

* Top 20 in sacks to bottom 10 in sacks. Behind only UA and Purdue amongst P5 in sacks

* 5 rushing TDs allowed in 14 games in 2019, 10 rushing TDs allowed in 4 games in 2020

* 16 TFL in 2020 ahead of only Vandy, Michigan, & Minn in P5

* Second greatest increase in 2020 in average points allowed among P5, behind only Penn State

* 229 yards to Jefferson most allowed by Ducks since 2015 and 3rd most allowed by anyone in P5 this year
Has anyone pressed Avalos on this dramatic turn around? I'd be very curious to see what kind of a leader he is. Will he take accountability for this or blame the players and coordinators?
I'll answer my own question. I am listening to his interview now. He is owning it and I respect that.
OregonFan4life -
My source just said Chip is officially back!
It will be announced at Autzen press conference tomorrow afternoon!
ducks5ever
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by ducks5ever »

The 2017 ducks team didn't have much talent at RB or WR (after Rolls Royce sat out) but Avalos did hold that team to just 47 rushing yards in the Vegas bowl... I'm guessing he knows something about defense. I doubt he'll rely on a 2-3-6 or something exotic that heavily.
OrTDuck
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by OrTDuck »

I tried to rewatch some of the OSU game; but, I couldn't get too far. Frustrating.

Flipped to a recording of the UO/Utah game from last year and watched about a quarter (Pac 12 in 60). The Ducks certainly have played some "D" in the recent past. The 4 games so far defensively don't look a lot like Utah though.
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GoDucksTroll
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Re: Defense a massive disappointment through 3 games

Post by GoDucksTroll »

GrantDuck wrote:I'd disagree in Popo and Bennett Williams. I'd move them both up to okay-ish.

I'd also move Sewell down. For every big play, he runs himself out of a gap.
I could buy Bennett Williams and Popo being higher, especially Williams. He’s a solid tackler, but he was the culpable party on some big chunk plays. Popo actually gets pressure from the interior on passing plays, but also gets moved around on run plays and is slow to disengage.

Sewell I will defend as the most effective player on the defensive front. I use a scoring system that analytics has been using for a while. Brief summation: a tackle for a 2 yard gain on 1st and 10 is worth more than a tackle after a 2 yard gain on 3rd and 1. TFL on a running back for a loss of 3 yards is worth slightly less than a sack for a loss of 3 yards because the sack not only gets the yards but also prevents a pass attempt which is worth as much as the other team is averaging per pass attempt - which is usually more than a run play. So on for every play, adjusted to averaged and situational down and distance. A successful tackle is where the offense gains less than 50% of the distance needed on 1st down, less than 70% of distance to go on second down, and doesn’t convert on third down.

Negative plays are more difficult to score. We don’t know the coverage or assignments for sure. Some are obvious: broken or missed tackle, blown man coverage, blitz that doesn’t result in pressure, commitment to the wrong read, getting pancaked or blocked out of the play for certain players, etc.

Anyway, Sewell I’ve graded out the highest +\- not just on a per play basis but on total he is neck and neck with Lenoir for first. Despite playing fewer snaps since the injury against UCLA and the coaches being hesitant to unleash him in the season opener.
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