Chances of Beating Georgia?

Moderators: greenyellow, Autzenoise, UOducksTK1

GrantDuck
Senior
Posts: 2497
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:05 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by GrantDuck »

1 in 6 seems about right to me.

Georgia's talent level is even better than Ohio State's (outside of WR/QB). We won't be able to expose them like we did Ohio State's linebackers.

Further, UGA has a returning QB and Ohio State didn't. Wouldn't count on him to make the same types of mistakes that helped us at Ohio State.

We are also in year one under Lanning, and we know it takes time to get a program running, especially with a different offense(even Chip struggled at first).

That said, they did lose a bunch of dudes off that defense and we have (hopefully) Justin Flowe and Noah Sewell on defense playing together. Our defense might be able to keep us in the game for awhile and give us a chance with those 2 dudes in there and guys like Popo coming back inside.

We also have talent at the WR position (I count at LEAST 4 NFL dudes) and TE position that we did not have when we played Auburn. That should make us more dynamic on offense.

So yeah, I'm at 15-20% range.
duck023
Four Star Recruit
Posts: 809
Joined: Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:32 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by duck023 »

I think Oregon can win the game as long as they don't make too many mistakes. 54%
User avatar
Tray Dub
All Pac-12
Posts: 5004
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 10:31 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by Tray Dub »

We're +460 underdogs according to the one sportsbook I found with a line this early, which converts to 18% chance to win. Pretty good guessing job by us.
SuperDuck
Senior
Posts: 4311
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2009 4:29 am
Location: Arizona, USA
Contact:

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by SuperDuck »

We have several things going our way, actually.

1. Dan Lanning is familiar with the Georgia staff where Kirby Smart has no real blueprint to go by for Oregon.

2. We have most of our O-Line returning against their inexperienced defense.

3. We'll have a proven SEC QB playing for us. Bo Nix won't be intimidated by Georgia.

4. If we can dominate, or at least hold our own, on the O-Line, that should open up the running game for us and allow Nix time to distribute the ball.

5. I expect the Ducks offense to test Georgia's defense deep early and often. Find some success there and we'll also soften things up for the running game.

I don't see any reason to rate this game as anything other than a tossup at this point.
John 3:36
User avatar
QuackininBama
All Pac-12
Posts: 5153
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:55 am

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by QuackininBama »

I think MC, while his gameplans were hot garbage, recruitment wise, we have a solid team, MC recruited very well. With that being said, we are not anywhere near the level of a Georgia or Alabama right now, so while I expect us to be competitive, Georgia will win this game going away. Probably 37-21. They are just that much better at this point. I think if Lanning sticks around, I do think we have a solid chance at the playoffs in the next 3 seasons.
spacefrog13x
Three Star Recruit
Posts: 258
Joined: Sun Jan 11, 2009 1:40 am

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by spacefrog13x »

Playing the game early in the season lessons the talent and depth gap between the two teams, so hopefully we are able to take advantage of some turnovers/sloppy play and jump on them early. Feels like a lot depends on how big a chip on their shoulder the Ducks have coming into the game.
User avatar
UOducksTK1
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 37590
Joined: Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:28 pm
GM: Boston Celtics GM
Location: Portland, Oregon

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by UOducksTK1 »


Do Not Fear. Isaiah 41:13
McDawg
One Star Recruit
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:24 am

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by McDawg »

Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.
hslack
One Star Recruit
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:35 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by hslack »

McDawg wrote:Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.

That TE room is nasty, curious to see how Monken utilizes them all on the field, Washington is a better blocker than reciever if I remember right,
McDawg
One Star Recruit
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:24 am

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by McDawg »

hslack wrote:
McDawg wrote:Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.

That TE room is nasty, curious to see how Monken utilizes them all on the field, Washington is a better blocker than reciever if I remember right,
Washington has great hands. I think he may have one drop in two years, but he hasn't had a lot of targets either. He had a bad foot some last year and that left Bowers opportunity. Not to mention Bowers is pretty quick; I think Bowers runs something like a 4.5
Here's a sample
http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=32727865
GrandpaDuck
Senior
Posts: 3100
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:48 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by GrandpaDuck »

McDawg wrote:Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.
Honestly, several of us here have a much better feel for what your team will look like than our own. We watched you in the playoffs, know your basic style and have seen lots of your important players. We're just guessing at what our offense and defense are going to look like and who the starters will be at multiple key positions.
McDawg
One Star Recruit
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:24 am

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by McDawg »

GrandpaDuck wrote:
McDawg wrote:Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.
Honestly, several of us here have a much better feel for what your team will look like than our own. We watched you in the playoffs, know your basic style and have seen lots of your important players. We're just guessing at what our offense and defense are going to look like and who the starters will be at multiple key positions.
Your defense will be good I will bet. Lanning knows defense. We THINK our defense will be OK, and our offense will be stronger. I have zero clue of what to expect from your offense. Didn't y'all have a pretty good running back last year? Is he a big back ? ( 220-230)
GrandpaDuck
Senior
Posts: 3100
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2009 3:48 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by GrandpaDuck »

McDawg wrote:
GrandpaDuck wrote:
McDawg wrote:Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.
Honestly, several of us here have a much better feel for what your team will look like than our own. We watched you in the playoffs, know your basic style and have seen lots of your important players. We're just guessing at what our offense and defense are going to look like and who the starters will be at multiple key positions.
Your defense will be good I will bet. Lanning knows defense. We THINK our defense will be OK, and our offense will be stronger. I have zero clue of what to expect from your offense. Didn't y'all have a pretty good running back last year? Is he a big back ? ( 220-230)
We had a pair who have been co-starters for the last several years. One entered the draft, the other transferred to USC for his 5th year. We have a true Sophomore who did good things in a backup role at the end of the year. He is tall but not that heavy and is a vision back, not a bruiser. A speedy small transfer back will make the top 3 of the depth chart. Supposedly we'll have an up tempo spread offense. Hopefully it will look like Norvell's offense at Memphis a few years ago and not last years FSU.

Bo Nix is likely to start at QB. At Auburn some of his best games have been against the better competition so I guess that's a positive on our side.
McDawg
One Star Recruit
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:24 am

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by McDawg »

GrandpaDuck wrote:
McDawg wrote:
GrandpaDuck wrote:
McDawg wrote:Lifelong Georgia fan here, so tender this reply with some seasoning;

The Ducks have some chance to win this game, make no mistake. Just as good a chance as we do to lose.
Someone said that Lanning, knows Kirby, but forgetting that Kirby knows Lanning. I have to think Kirby has the advantage. It was also said that you have most of your starting OL back against an "inexperienced defense" ...that might be a bit of a push. That was not just a good defense, it was a generational defense that used a heavy rotation. While we did lose several guys to the draft, those were the 1's on the DL and Georgia was pretty deep with edge guys and LB's. Don't forget that UGA has recruited pretty good the last few years. They may not shut the Ducks offense down, but I do think a lot of people are overlooking the Dawgs because we are losing 2-3dudes that are 1st rounders; we may have 2-3 more first round guys now that are maybe just soph or freshmen.
Offensively would be more of an area to watch. Dawgs have a solid OL, deep RB rotation and a TE room that is probably the best in the country. The California TE, Bowers is pretty unique blend of size and speed, and the Georgia native Arik Gilbert is a WR in a TE body. And Washington is just a giant. 13 personnel is a given, and there is even the possibility of 14 personnel if Oscar Delp picks up the blocking schemes. Todd Monken has been amazing at OC. Delp looked good in spring, but he had a lot of targets to show off too.
Maybe I'll start a thread and tell you what I know we have coming and let ya'll dissect it with that yall know. Give you some names to watch. All my infornation and $2.99 will get you a Happy Meal.
Honestly, several of us here have a much better feel for what your team will look like than our own. We watched you in the playoffs, know your basic style and have seen lots of your important players. We're just guessing at what our offense and defense are going to look like and who the starters will be at multiple key positions.
Your defense will be good I will bet. Lanning knows defense. We THINK our defense will be OK, and our offense will be stronger. I have zero clue of what to expect from your offense. Didn't y'all have a pretty good running back last year? Is he a big back ? ( 220-230)
We had a pair who have been co-starters for the last several years. One entered the draft, the other transferred to USC for his 5th year. We have a true Sophomore who did good things in a backup role at the end of the year. He is tall but not that heavy and is a vision back, not a bruiser. A speedy small transfer back will make the top 3 of the depth chart. Supposedly we'll have an up tempo spread offense. Hopefully it will look like Norvell's offense at Memphis a few years ago and not last years FSU.

Bo Nix is likely to start at QB. At Auburn some of his best games have been against the better competition so I guess that's a positive on our side.
We have seen Nix some. He is a fantastic athlete, perhaps more of an athlete than a pure QB ala Manziel-ish. He was never a statue with us, but tended to tuck and run more often than perhaps he wanted; that could have been due to our defense being pretty fast. Bennett is now the starter, but he is being pushed pretty hard one of the back-ups pretty Hard ( Cason Beck) Beck has a better arm, taller, faster, but Bennett has the lead for now. That is subject to change possibly.
We have a decent RB rotation with a couple of big guys; Milton is a third year 5* guy out of California that merits watching- big 6'2" 225 He has shown some flashes of being a fantastic back, but has had some dings that kept him off the field. McIntosh is a 3rd year Ft Lauderdale Fl guy thats about 6ft 210 and he will probably the first back in and Milton the 2 in the rotation. Hard to tell this early. Georgia fans are excited to see if an incoming freshmen gets in the game; Branson Robinson from Mississippi. His pics have been making the internet rounds pretty good. He is pretty impressive looking. Very "Nick Chubb-like" in physical appearance. 247 has him at 5,10 220lb Thats a good low to the ground SEC type back. You should google a pic of him.
Kirby is all about that RB that can pass block tho...ya never know what he is gonna do.
You never know how these kids will turn out. But I've read he was a good kid.
User avatar
DuckzRule
Four Star Recruit
Posts: 976
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:30 pm

Re: Chances of Beating Georgia?

Post by DuckzRule »

I really wanna have hope for us winning this game since Lanning seems to be a better coach than Cristobal, and Bo Nix will be an improvement over our 2 past QB's, but Auburn (which is a team we should have beat in 2019 but stupid decisions cost us the victory) is a joke when compared to Georgia, plus they are coming right off a natty.

Georgia does have a really bad record playing at Mercedes Benz Stadium but I think we will lose, hopefully it's close.

But hey, since we managed to beat Ohio State last year, anything is possible.
Post Reply