Early thoughts on this year's team (long)

[GrantDuck]

So I'll start this by saying last year, I said this could be a final four team and we had final four talent. Many said, "whoa, pump the brakes!". And I did not mean hey they are for sure going to make it, just that the talent was there.

So, expectations are raised after last year, but I think people need to take a step back after this weekend and realize how CBB works. Teams that win, unless they are very much superior athletically, are teams that have at least a couple of guys that have played a lot of basketball together or an experienced stud player.

This year's "talent" is not final four talent THIS season. Our only legit big man is a true freshman learning not to foul in the most over officiated conference in all of college sports. Our most experienced "leader" is not that athletic or quick(PP) by CBB standards. He's an average defender. Troy Brown may be a one an done guy in the end, but he looks nothing like that right now.(let's see in Feb/March). Elijiah Brown has been the largest disappointment so far. We're a better team than UConn, I can say that much, but didn't play like it. Post defense right now is a nightmare.

Side note: It's really sad to hear Altman say things like "Dillon Brooks is a really good defender in the NBA, he didn't play defense in college much, because he was always afraid of fouling out." God, how awful of a reflection is that on our conference's officiating?

Anyhow, on to some positives: we WILL get better and we WILL be in the top half of the Pac-12. The only team that's looked CLEARLY better than Oregon so far is USC. I'd venture ASU and Arizona will also finish ahead of us, but we'll be right there fighting in the 4-6 range with UCLA, Stanford, etc. We do have a lot of young talent. Victor Bailey by next season is going to be an all-conference type defender. We can shoot the lights out from 3. For our size, rebounding has been much less of an issue than I originally thought. We shoot Free Throws exceptionally well as a team(unfortunately we don't get to the line much and need to attack the basket more). Our FG% defense is 16th in the nation. There's a lot to work with.

As far as the real question of every season: Will we make the tournament and how far will we go?
With Arizona struggling in non-conference and our non-con OOC being trash outside of the PK80, it's going to be tougher than usual to build the resume. However, our KenPom #'s are still pretty good, even with all of the struggles and learning going on out there. If we improve like a normal Dana team, we will absolutely make the tournament. I think our absolute ceiling is probably sweet 16 this year, but more likely than not we'll be a first weekend team only. Expect some bad losses(yes, we probably blow a game to OS/WSU/Cal or someone like that; but we also probably beat USC/UA at some point). That's OK. If Brown sticks around we will be a Final Four contender again in 2018.

[duckfan22]

I was thinking about the bb team this morning and agree with all that you wrote.
What bugs me is the defense and lack of a take charge leader. This team also
dribbles way to much. Last years team moved the ball really well and had the expierence.
This years team needs someone to be the leader even a freshman if need be. I really think
Troy Brown should stay another year from what i have seen so far. But he is really good.
Elijiah Brown is pressing to hard. Trying to fit into a team player vs the main guy at New Mexico.
Maybe a roll off the bench for awhile would help him.

[GrandpaDuck]

I've watched every game and what I am sure of is I don't know this team yet. I'm not even going to guess at their ceiling, but hopefully we've seen the floor. E Brown, Bailey and McIntosh all have bursts of playing so out of control they are hurting more than helping. One would guess that would improve for some of them. The one thing I'm afraid wont improve is teams pounding us on the boards.

I just remember how bad some of our better players looked at the beginning of the last couple of years and how it was like an instant change. Like Ennis, I was all get him out of there at the beginning of the year and then snap, huge contributor. With so many new guys who are flashing good and bad, it is just tough to guess if this is another tournament team or if they'll snap Altman's string of 20 wins.

Actually I have faith in Altman, we shouldn't doubt him getting it in order at least until the first time it doesn't happen.

[northbeachsf]

I am not worried either. Is Oregon going to be good enough to win the conference? Nope. However, Altman will have this team in the Top 5 by seasons end and into the NCAA tourney. This is exactly what happens when you get a bunch of new faces. It just takes a while to get everyone on the same page, especially when you are playing true freshman. Look at what Arizona is dealing with right now. They dropped three straight with probably the most raw talent in the entire NCAA. I can almost guarantee that AZ makes the elite eight.

[Merganzer]

Nothing to disagree with from what's been posted already, the one comforting aspect about this team's performance is that it is completely indicative of a team that just doesn't know each other yet, and on top of that is without a true leader( who knows what is wrong at Arizona). As these things come together the performance will improve. Oregon's defense is big on communication and will certainly get better as the familiarity grows; offense looks even more disorganized, though it was sharp in the early minutes against Oklahoma.