oregon and making the ncaa tournament

[oregontrack]

we are 17-13. we have an RPI of 84, and a SOS of 63.

the good news: the schedule in front of us will give us the opportunity to win a lot of games down the stretch. we have just one remaining opponent with an RPI in the top 40.

the bad news: we have just one remaining opponent with an RPI in the top 40 (oregon state, RPI 40). we can win a lot of games from here till the end, but a lack of quality opponents is going to make it hard for our computer numbers to rise significantly. we're going to have to rely on passing a lot of eyeball tests.

believe it or not, we're in a tie for 4th place in the pac-12 but only a game behind utah for the lead. the conference winner gets an automatic bid, since we don't have a conference tournament to crown a champion. this might be our best track to the postseason. consider this OPTIMISTIC W/L projection for the remainder of the season:

@ ucla
@ ucla
@ ucla

2-1, new record: 19-14

oregon state
wazzu
wazzu
wazzu

4-0, new record: 23-14

san diego
@ asu
@ asu
@ asu

3-1, new record: 26-15

@ osu
@ osu
@ osu

1-2, new record: 27-17 (we have NEVER won a pac-12 game in corvallis since rebirth -- i'll predict ONE win)

portland (conclusion of 9th inning game we lead 3-1)
portland
arizona
arizona
arizona

5-0, new record: 32-17

st. mary's
@ stan
@ stan
@ stan

3-1, new record: 35-18

this projection has us winning every remaining non-conference game and every pac-12 series except the oregon state one. that might be a little TOO optimistic, but the bottom line is that, with a poor RPI, i think staying under 20 losses is a MUST if we're trying for an at-large bid. we're going to have to sweep a few series. we're going to have to win series on the road. last year, in a MUCH stronger pac-12, we were the LAST team in the field with a resume boasting a 37-23 record and a 66 rpi, with series wins over #7 ucla and #24 ucsb. this year, our best wins are against #9 ucsb and #31 cal, with almost zero opportunities for another top 25 win (unless oregon state wins out, save against us).

[UOducksTK1]

That seems beyond optimistic. I can't believe Utah is on top of the standings btw...

[nogerO]

That seems beyond optimistic. I can't believe Utah is on top of the standings btw...

Utah seems to me to have blossomed in the Pac-12 while Califraudo, not so much.

[shoparound]

Not getting the series win here at UCLA hurts a bit. They were also another team struggling, like us, and we couldn't get passed their pitchers. First series loss to them in a while (ever? since rebirth) at that stadium.

[oregontrack]

new route to the postseason: win out. anything less and it gets pretty dicey.

[nogerO]

Horton's in trouble...

[shoparound]

I'd love for us to get a new coach and team just to change things up...
But I don't think it will happen. This is only the first "bad" year the team has had in a while.

[oregontrack]

Horton's in trouble...

nah. you don't fire someone for one bad year. especially if that "bad" year still results in a winning record.

[cordy02c]

but what if we don't finish with a winning record and our remaining schedule doesn't guarantee that by any means

[oregontrack]

i don't feel you can fire him, even if we end up with a losing record. that's one bad year after four consecutive tournament appearances. much, much better programs than ours suffer down years, too.

i would have horton and all of his players on a muzzle going forward, because we're our own worst enemy in regards to expectations. but he doesn't deserve to be fired after one mediocre season.

i would save the calls for his dismissal till next year, imo. there's a very good chance both irvin and krook sign with pro clubs and none of our freshmen right now scream future above average pac-12 starter. and our hitting is always a question mark. we might be bad again next year, and i believe his contract it up after 2017 (? -- someone correct me if i'm wrong). the chorus will get louder.

[nogerO]

but he's going to be on a short leash pretty soon if this season goes badly and next year more of the same...

[shoparound]

i don't feel you can fire him, even if we end up with a losing record. that's one bad year after four consecutive tournament appearances. much, much better programs than ours suffer down years, too.

i would have horton and all of his players on a muzzle going forward, because we're our own worst enemy in regards to expectations. but he doesn't deserve to be fired after one mediocre season.

i would save the calls for his dismissal till next year, imo. there's a very good chance both irvin and krook sign with pro clubs and none of our freshmen right now scream future above average pac-12 starter. and our hitting is always a question mark. we might be bad again next year, and i believe his contract it up after 2017 (? -- someone correct me if i'm wrong). the chorus will get louder.

According to this article...
http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.s ... e_h_1.html

His contract:
The new contract guarantees the former national coach of the year at least $500,000 per year. Performance bonuses could stretch his total UO earnings close to $800,000 annually.
It expires Sept 2017.

His bonuses:
Horton, under terms of the new deal, would earn $30,000 for a Pac-12 championship. He would earn an additional $25,000 for an NCAA tournament berth, plus $25,000 more if the Ducks advance to a super regional.

His bonus for a College World Series berth is $50,000, and a national championship bonus is an additional $50,000.

Horton will receive a guaranteed $50,000 or 10 percent — whichever is greater — of gross annual receipts from ticket sales. That guaranteed compensation will increase by $10,000 each year of the deal.

At that time of the contract he is the highest paid Pac-12 baseball coach, and still holds up to this day. Even after UCLA won the national championship, their head coach's raise was the closest to Horton.
Now theoretically next year would be his last, if they don't extend it...

[oregontrack]

but he's going to be on a short leash pretty soon if this season goes badly and next year more of the same...

i agree.