Best “Lottery Draft Positions” in the Last 10 Drafts

[offtheheezy]

Best “Lottery Draft Positions” in the Last 10 Drafts

With all the rage over the lottery picks in the past couple of days, a look back at a ten year period of drafts to evaluate, which of the lottery draft positions are the best? Starting with the year 1993 and going back 11 drafts to fully consider how their careers panned out or is currently panning out, here are the results.

I'll be bucketing each player in somewhat of these amorphous tiers, from my own personal opinion. Some of these players I've lost a bit of context on, but I still remember most of them.

Tiers
Superstars - The elites of the elites, at some point was recognized as one of the top three best players in the league.
All-Stars - Consistent all-star level production for multiple seasons, usually has been a staple for a team for a long time
Starters - Plays a consistent starter-level role on a team
Bench/Role Player - May be a journeyman and bounce back and forth between starter and bench role but never sticks to a team
Bust - Out of the league, may have been kept as an end of bench guy for a couple of seasons

Pick #1
1993 - Anfernee Hardaway (All-Star)
1992 - Shaquille O’Neal (Superstar)
1991 - Dikembe Mutombo (All-Star)
1990 - Derrick Coleman (All-Star)
1989 - Tim Hardaway (All-Star)
1988 - Rik Smits (All-Star)
1987 - David Robinson (Superstar)
1986 - Drazen Petrovic (All-Star)
1985 - Patrick Ewing (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1984 - Hakeem Olajuwon (Superstar)
1983 - Ralph Sampson (Superstar)

Superstar x4, All-Star x6, Starter x1

Nothing too surprising here, seems like the #1 draft pick has the highest returns. Most superstars in the league come from the #1 draft spot and at worst it seems like you will be getting an all-star caliber player out of this pick.

Pick #2
1993 - Chris Webber (All-Star)
1992 - Kenny Anderson (All-Star)
1991 - Larry Johnson (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1990 - Hank Gathers (All-Star)
1989 - Shawn Kemp (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1988 - Mitch Richmond (All-Star)
1987 - Reggie Miller (Bench)
1986 - Brad Daughterty (All-Star)
1985 - Karl Malone (Starter)
1984 - Michael Jordan (Superstar)
1983 - Derek Harper (Starter / Fringe All-Star)

Superstar x1, All-Star x5, Starter x4, Bench x1

Surprisingly, #2 has a significantly higher drop-off than I would’ve expected from the #1 spot. Take away the outlier of the 1984 draft and you’re left with a close split down the line between all-stars and starters. Considering the draft position, it seems to be worse than expected as a lot of franchises hope to get a cornerstone at this point in the draft.

Pick #3
1993 - Jamal Mashburn (Starter)
1992 - Alonzo Mourning (All-Star)
1991 - Steve Smith (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1990 - Gary Payton (All-Star)
1989 - Glen Rice (Bench)
1988 - Rony Seikaly (Starter)
1987 - Scottie Pippen (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1986 - Arvydas Sabonis (Starter)
1985 - Detlef Schrempf (Bust)
1984 - Charles Barkley (All-Star / Fringe Superstar)
1983 - Dale Ellis (Bust)

All-Star x3, Starter x5, Bench x1, Bust x2

#3 has a ton of disappointments for the draft position, but ultimately you end up with a decent player at the end of the day. Higher bust potential than the other top 5 picks however, headlined by Grizzlies fan-favorite Detlef Schrempf. Hopefully the Grizzlies #3 curse doesn't end up being the same with Peja, even though the early returns are not promising.

Pick #4
1993 - Shawn Bradley (Starter)
1992 - Christian Laettner (Starter)
1991 - Terrell Brandon (Starter)
1990 - Toni Kukoc (Bench)
1989 - Sean Elliott (All-Star)
1988 - Danny Manning (All-Star)
1987 - Armen Gilliam (Bench)
1986 - Len Bias (Bench)
1985 - Benoit Benjamin (Starter)
1984 - John Stockton (Starter)
1983 - Rodney McCray (Bench)

All-Star x2, Starter x5, Bench x4

Of the top 5 picks, pick #4 seems to be the most mediocre with the exception of Sean Elliott and Danny Manning. Lot of these picks seem to end up just being end of bench guys or role players. At what point do teams start opting towards players with good initial ratings and perhaps lower starting potential, as a lot of these players never ultimately hit the potential they were scouted to have.

Pick #5
1993 - Vin Baker (Bench)
1992 - Jim Jackson (Superstar)
1991 - Billy Owens (Bench)
1990 - Dennis Scott (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1989 - Vlade Divac (All-Star / Fringe Superstar)
1988 - Pooh Richardson (Starter)
1987 - Kevin Johnson (All-Star)
1986 - Dennis Rodman (Starter)
1985 - Wayman Tisdale (Starter)
1984 - Sam Perkins (All-Star)
1983 - Darrell Walker (Bench)

Superstar x1, All-Star x3, Starter x4, Bench x3

The 5th pick seems to almost be the 2nd or 3rd best pick of the early lottery, headlined by Jim Jackson. A lot of solid all-stars came out of this selection spot. This comes to show how random FBB's potential might really be, as there were some late bloomers here. Vlade Divac and Sam Perkins in particular really turned it on after a solid but not amazing first couple of years on their rookie deal.

Pick #6
1993 - Bobby Hurley (Starter)
1992 - Latrell Sprewell (Starter)
1991 - Stacey Augmon (Bench)
1990 - Kendall Gill (All-Star / Fringe Superstar)
1989 - Pervis Ellison (Starter)
1988 - Charles Smith (Superstar)
1987 - Kenny Smith (Superstar)
1986 - John Salley (Bench)
1985 - Chris Mullin (Starter)
1984 - Kevin Willis (Bench)
1983 - Byron Scott (Superstar)

Superstar x3, All-Star x1, Starter x4, Bench x3

6th pick seems to be where you shoot for the moon, producing three, arguably four superstars (in my mind, Gill is a super high end all-star but easily could be considered a superstar). Producing multiple MVPs in Charles Smith and Kenny Smith, along with just retired Byron Scott. Even the bench guys had a few solid years as starters, so easily one of the best pick positions in the lottery to date.

Pick #7
1993 - Gheorghe Muresan (Starter)
1992 - Walt Williams (Starter)
1991 - Bison Dele (Bench)
1990 - Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (Starter)
1989 - Mookie Blaylock (Starter)
1988 - Rex Chapman (Bench)
1987 - Muggsy Bogues (Bench)
1986 - Roy Tarpley (All-Star)
1985 - Joe Dumars (Starter)
1984 - Sam Bowie (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1983 - Clyde Drexler (Starter / Fringe All-Star)

All-Star x1, Starter x7, Bench x3

#7 is where we start to feel the biggest dropoff from the high end players in the league, but still end up getting a solid enough player. This is the point of the draft where it feels like the true top end guys have already been taken, so teams start to opt towards those who already have solid enough ratings.

Pick #8
1993 - Sam Cassell (Starter)
1992 - Robert Horry (All-Star)
1991 - Randy Brown (Bench)
1990 - Tyrone Hill (Bench)
1989 - Nick Anderson (Bench)
1988 - Chris Morris (Bench)
1987 - Reggie Lewis (Bench)
1986 - Johnny Dawkins (Starter)
1985 - Terry Porter (Starter)
1984 - Melvin Turpin (All-Star)
1983 - Jeff Malone (Bust)

All-Star x2, Starter x3, Bench x5, Bust x1

Turpin headlines this bunch from the past ten years, but at this point in the draft it’s becoming a coin flip on whether or not you get a contributing starter-caliber player. This is probably the point in the draft where teams start to trade out for future picks. The returns into trading up into this area seems to be mixed however.

Pick #9
1993 - Allan Houston (Bench)
1992 - Todd Day (Bench)
1991 - Chris Gatling (All-Star)
1990 - Terry Mills (Starter)
1989 - Danny Ferry (Bench / Fringe Starter)
1988 - Rod Strickland (Starter)
1987 - Horace Grant (Bench)
1986 - Jeff Hornacek (Bench)
1985 - Xavier McDaniel (Bench)
1984 - Leon Wood (Starter)
1983 - Steve Stipanovich (Starter)

All-Star x1, Starter x4, Bench x6
Pretty much the same as #8, besides Gatling who for some reason keeps on chugging out these 25ppg seasons, another coin split on whether you get a solid player.

Pick #10
1993 - Lindsey Hunter (Bust)
1992 - LaPhonso Ellis (Starter)
1991 - Luc Longley (Starter)
1990 - Bo Kimble (Bench)
1989 - Stacey King (Bench)
1988 - Hersey Hawkins (All-Star)
1987 - Olden Polynice (Bench)
1986 - Brad Sellers (Starter)
1985 - Spud Webb (Bench)
1984 - Alvin Robertson (Bust)
1983 - Thurl Bailey (Bust)

All-Star x1, Starter x3, Bench x4, Bust x3

We’re starting to enter some more bust categories here at pick #10, headlined by the most recent bust who just retired from the Minnesota Timberwolves Lindsey Hunter. A few good starters, and Hawkins has been quite good on the Spurs, but otherwise we’re starting to see the huge dropoff here.

Pick #11
1993 - Rodney Rogers (Starter)
1992 - Elmore Spencer (Bench)
1991 - Mark Macon (Bench)
1990 - Dwayne Schintzius (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1989 - Clifford Robinson (Starter)
1988 - Jerome Lane (Superstar)
1987 - Derrick McKey (Bench)
1986 - Kevin Duckworth (All-Star)
1985 - Ed Pinckney (Bench)
1984 - Otis Thorpe (Starter)
1983 - Sidney Green (Bench)

Superstar x1, All-Star x1, Starter x4, Bench x5

11th ironically seems better than 10th, but mainly because of Duckworth and Lane turning out to be two of the best “hit the high potential ceiling with mediocre initial ratings” stories. Lane is one of the only amazing raws that I've seen get better every year, and if he wasn't pushed down by James Worthy for the first few seasons he would've gotten a lot more hype earlier on.

Pick #12
1993 - Isaiah Rider (All-Star)
1992 - Clarence Weatherspoon (Starter)
1991 - Doug Smith (Starter)
1990 - Felton Spencer (Bench)
1989 - Dana Barros (Bust / Fringe Bench)
1988 - Harvey Grant (Bench)
1987 - Jose Ortiz (Bust)
1986 - William Bedford (Bench / Fringe Starter)
1985 - Charles Oakley (Bust)
1984 - Greg Wiltjer (Bust)
1983 - Roy Hinson (Bench)

All-Star x1, Starter x2, Bench x4, Bust x4

Is the late lottery at this point any different than the mid first round? Lots of failure here at the 12th pick besides the most recent years where the drafts have been stronger than usual.

Pick #13
1993 - Calbert Cheaney (Bench)
1992 - Elmer Bennett (I don’t remember / Bust)
1991 - Anthony Avent (I don’t remember / Bust)
1990 - Duane Causwell (Starter / Fringe All-Star)
1989 - George McCloud (Bust)
1988 - Derrick Chievous (Bench)
1987 - Sarunas Marciulionis (Bench)
1986 - Chuck Person (Bust)
1985 - A.C. Green (Bust)
1984 - Michael Cage (Starter)
1983 - Michael Britt (Bust)

Starter x2, Bench x3, Bust x6

Ouch. Causwell’s killing it on the Pistons though!

[800wins]

Great read. Penny is a superstar though

[Foxyg1396]

Great read. Penny is a superstar though

He did say his judgement for superstar is at one point one of the top 3 players in the league. Penny isn’t there yet

[Zyme]

Great read. Penny is a superstar though

He did say his judgement for superstar is at one point one of the top 3 players in the league. Penny isn’t there yet

Unless he gets his turnovers under control he will never be there in my mind.

[vincent1469]

Dont know how Kevin Willis is bench when Brad Sellers is Starter. Sellers backed up Willis at one point haha.

[offtheheezy]

Dont know how Kevin Willis is bench when Brad Sellers is Starter. Sellers backed up Willis at one point haha.

Bc Sellers is my boy

[The Bean Regime]

Avent could probably be bench for #13. Had some good seasons coming off of it.

Chievous would probably be a starter if he ever signed with me. Always offer him, never accepts. Smh.

Clarence Weatherspoon 2nd best #12 pick! Too bad the Lakers are making him look so pedestrian.

Oof Lindsey Hunter #10. Retired this season in the FA after 2 seasons of barely any playing time with me, then 2 seasons of 0 minutes.

As for Penny becoming a superstar, I think he's still not the best PG around with Kenny Smith still playing exceptional, though maybe #2.

[lukeyrid13]

Nice article. Just a fun retrospective to look back on all of the previous decades' drafts.

[The Bean Regime]

88 is a very appealing draft. Grant looks like the only flat out bust (and I'd call him a bust). Very, very good top end and then a lot of good starter-bench depth.

[800wins]

Great read honestly. 10 superstars in 10 drafts. 3 maybe 4 @ #6 overall is unexpected

[offtheheezy]

Whenever this has enough votes

Kobe Bryant
3PT
Jumpshot
Inside

[Oregon Ownage]

Kobe Bryant
3PT

Outside went from B- to B

Done