A lot of naysayers were proven wrong when the Nets held serve to get to the East finals in a super competitive eastern conference field. Even more so when the upset the Bucks to move on to meet the Mavericks. The Mavericks, on the other hand, were the strong pick to win it all from the start of the season and have lived up to the billing. While they faced a pair of scare in the first two rounds they sailed past the #2 seeded Kings into the finals. Lets dive in to see how they the match up against the Nets and see if the heavy underdogs from New Jersey can meet the Juggernaut of the West. Please note as in previous previews only playoff data is used. The Nets player/positions group appears first, mavs player/group second.
PG:
Sam Cassell
C+ B+ B- B+ D+ B
36.8min/ 4.2 REB / 7.7 AST / 2.6 STL / 2.9 TO/ 0.2 BLK / 22.1 PT | 0.527FG% / 0.381 3PT%/ 0.885 FT% / 0.593 TS%
VS.
Kevin Ollie PG
B B B+ A- D C
38.3 MIN / 3.9 REB / 8.8AST / 2.3 STL / 2.5 TO / 0.2 BLK / 16.5PTS / 0.429 FG% / 0.340 3PT% / 0.340 FT% / 0.496 TS%
Advantage: Cassell. Ollie was the unheralded kid that nobody wanted in the first round is matched up against the Alien who has blossomed into a very solid option at the point of attack. You are pitting a low TO game manager who isn't the best shooter and a threat from anywhere on the court. Ollie while solid and is up for a huge payout this offseason over his paltry 1mil contract this season, he is at a considerable disadvantage against the more mature guard.
SG:
A.J. English
B C+ C B+ C- C
41.3MIN / 6.9REB / 1.7STL / 1.2TO / 0.3 BLK / 12.8 PTS / 0.408 FG% / 0.300 3PT% / 0.864FT% / 0.471 TS%
VS
Jim Jackson
B- A+ B- A- C- C
39.8MIN / 6.3REB / 2.1STL / 3.3TO / 0.1BLK / 29.9PTS / 0.528FG% / 0.4723PT% / 0.843FT% / 0.616% TS
Advantage: Jackson by a country mile. No offense to A.J. who has been there and seen it all, he is matched up against one of the most dangerous players in the league. While 47% isn't a bad true shooting number, his opposite number is shooting a rather absurd 62% as a volume shooter. This one is a no contest and is a big advantage to Jackson
SF:
Robert Horry
B- A C+ A- C A
37.7MIN / 8.3REB / 0.9STL / 2.9TO / 0.8 BLK / 24.3 PTS / 0.458 FG% / 0.400 3PT% / 0.775 FT% / 0.550 TS%
VS
LaPhonso Ellis
B+ C+ C B A- C
36.1MIN / 9.9 REB / 0.8STL / 2.8TO / 3.2BLK / 23.5PTS / 0.516FG% / 0.341 3PT% / 0.735 FT% / 0.558 TS%
Advantage: Even. Going in if you had asked me I would have said Horry hands down easy call lets move on. Now setting them side by side you have extremely fine margins with different strengths. Horry gives you better positional defense, Ellis gives you one and a half more rebounds and a ton more blocks. In shooting Horry is the clear winner if you are only looking at his outside range but if you are talking on the whole you split the TS% by .008.
PF:
Loy Vaught
B+ C- C A- A- C
35.3MIN 14.1 REB /1.3STL / 1.7TO / 1.1 BLK / 19.1PTS / 0.462 FG% / 0.682 FT% / 0.508 TS%
VS
Greg Foster
C+ C- D A B- C
35.9MIN / 10.6 REB /0.8STL / 1.6TO / 3.6 BLK / 6.1PTS / 0.328 FG% / 0.676 FT% / 0.370 TS%
Advantage: Nets. Loy Vaught has been been paid to do one thing this playoff season, be a rebounding machine. He has multiple 20+ rebounding game and other than one game he has put up double digit rebounds (the median average is 14.5). No disrespect to Mr Foster, his 3.6 BPG towers over his opfore, but his TS% is pedestrian and he is the weakest of the starting 5 for the Mavs (not bad, but weakest). This matchup will turn on Foster's ability to play great defense and make Loy take bad shots.
C:
Scot Pollard
B D D- B B+ C
30.3MIN / 10.5 REB / 0.6STL / 1.3TO / 2.3 BLK / 15.7PTS / 0.441 FG% / 0.616 FT% / 0.464 TS%
VS
Dikembe Mutombo
C+ D+ C A A C
33.1MIN / 12.8 REB / 1.2STL / 1.6TO / 3.1 BLK / 6.2PTS / 0.333 FG% / 0.612 FT% / 0.383 TS%
Advantage: Mavs. You are not paying either of these players to carry the load on offense. Whereas pollard provides a solid looking 16/11, that is not a very efficient TS to get to those numbers. Dik, on the other hand sees that 46% TS and rases a 38%. While bad, and it is truly deplorable, you get just shy of 13 rebounds, a full steal and 3.1 blocks per game (4.3 B+S vs Pollard's 2.9). While this is not the windmill slam pick such as the English/Jackson matchup, this one favors Mavs heavily. Dik is only shooting 6.8 shos per game so his bad shooting is really not going to hurt you all that much whereas Dik has every tool to make the Nets regret every one of Pollard's 15 shots per game.
Bench:
14.9 REB / 2.4STL / 4.2TO / 3.5 BLK / 24.9PTS / 0.436 FG% / 0.277 3PT% / 0.749 FT% / 0.484 TS%
VS
14.1 REB / 2.0STL / 3.3TO% / 3.1 BLK / 21.3PTS / 0.409 FG% / 0.406 3PT% / 0.688 FT% / 0.468 TS%
Advantage: Nets by a nose. Neither are world beating and are unlikely to be the deciding factor in this series but they overall shoot slightly better in every category with the tradeoff that one of those categories is turnovers (0.9 worse). There is not a ton to separate these bench squads but the Nets do lean on them more time wise.
Overall Impressions:
The Mavs go in here as the clear favorite at multiple positions. While this league has shown a great man running the point can make every difference in the world, I really think this is Dallas' to lose. They either match up a solid to stud defender against the Nets scorers and have a dominating advantage in Jim Jackson over English. This writer always loves an underdog to come up on top but this one I would give to the Mavs 8 times out of 10 and one of those Jackson goes down to injury and the other Loy pulls a 15+ rebounding streak.
