Duck07 wrote:
So my understanding from lurking BE is that by getting under the tax line this season, it will help prevent them from becoming a potential 3 year offender with the tax rules (which is when it gets even more costly) and that's when other bad contracts are up and the team could be blown up. So it would appear with the way they are playing right now that Paul will very likely pay the tax the next 2 seasons to see what this team can grow into or you've got a few expiring contracts to blow the thing up with. With the way they are playing right now and getting wins from their defense, it would seem to suggest that being patient right now and SPAM is the right approach. If he didn't want to pay the tax next year, more moves would have been made so I feel like that means 2 years of the tax is also inevitable to suggest this is the route we're going to see.
It's actually on the second year that a team gets the 'repeat offender' penalty. It can be a massive hit, up to $4.25 per dollar over the tax threshold (in addition to the bloated payroll), and if the Blazers do sign Nurkic, they are very likely to pay it. They also miss out on revenue sharing if they exceed the tax threshold. Obviously, we don't know what the Blazers will do, we can only go by clues and math, some of which I have tried to provide here. The question is whether or not Allen believes the team can win. Possibly, he is waiting for the playoffs to decide.
I think it is interesting that Nurkic is playing so little. Even in a hotly-contested game like tonight, he played less than 19 minutes, and Davis had over 21, and Collins played just under 8 to round out the 48 at center. Meanwhile, neither of our formidable post players Swanigan or Leonard got in the game. Instead, oh look, Harkless played an entire quarter at the 4, even though nobody is injured! I could have sworn someone said this wasn't possible...
So some of my evidence thus far that the cap situation will heavily influence what they do this summer:
1. They were willing to let 25-year old Crabbe go only a year after signing him, even though the situation at small forward is weak. They even took $20 million back in worthless payroll to make the deal happen.
2. They let Vonleh go to get below the tax even though it means playing Harkless at the back-up 4 now.
3. Nurkic is playing less than his average in close games. He also played 18 and 19 minutes vs. the Thunder and the Timberwolves, both games where the margin was single digits.
4. Despite rumors that there was interest in Ed Davis before the trade deadline, the Blazers held onto him, getting no value for his expiring deal, but retaining his Bird rights. Lillard also indicated he wanted to retain Davis.
5. Nurkic has already come out and stated he will become an RFA and test the market. Given Olshey's wont to overpay to keep free agents, I take this as a sign that the Blazers have not committed to giving him a big contract, otherwise it would have happened already.
6. Last week, they locked up Wade Baldwin through next year, which may indicate that Napier is also gone this summer.
Obviously, there are alternate explanations for all of these facts, but taken together, they seem to suggest that the cap is dictating their moves, and they are not likely to retain all of their free agents.