Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/index ... iver_index

Kentucky, Kansas and Duke top the odds at 5-4 to make the Final Four, with Oregon right behind at 5-1.

Wow....a young team that is short guards is usually a recipe for disaster. However, it is hard to ignore the talent level and what Altman has done in the past with less than ideal rosters.

That would be awesome if they managed to pull off a final four run.

Whoever wrote that article does not understand how odds work. If you click the link it says Nevada is 3-1 to make the Final Four, and then North Carolina, Michigan State, and Virginia all are at 9-2. Which means the Ducks have the 8th-best odds, not 4th-best.

It's a case of Headline Confusion. In the "olden days" the headline writers didn't write the articles. It may still work this way. However the author makes the same mistake of using the odds of winning rather than the odds of making the Final Four.

Oregon indeed has the fourth-best chance at winning the title, but only the eight-best chance at making the final four. I guess Vegas views those two outcomes as independent events from a betting perspective.

From a fan perspective, it would seem that making the FF is a prerequisite for winning the championship.

northbeachsf wrote:Wow....a young team that is short guards is usually a recipe for disaster. However, it is hard to ignore the talent level and what Altman has done in the past with less than ideal rosters.

That would be awesome if they managed to pull off a final four run.

It helps that our most experienced player starts at PG. Honestly if we stay healthy, a Final Four isn't crazy talk.

DuckNV wrote:It's a case of Headline Confusion. In the "olden days" the headline writers didn't write the articles. It may still work this way. However the author makes the same mistake of using the odds of winning rather than the odds of making the Final Four.

Oregon indeed has the fourth-best chance at winning the title, but only the eight-best chance at making the final four. I guess Vegas views those two outcomes as independent events from a betting perspective.

From a fan perspective, it would seem that making the FF is a prerequisite for winning the championship.

Good catch. Yeah, that's an interesting disparity between the odds for those two things. I guess the thinking is, this team has pretty high variance, so if we're good enough to make the Final Four that means our young guys have really panned out, so we have the talent to go all the way. A more veteran team might be more likely to get to the Final Four, but may not have the talent to seal the deal. Maybe? Just spitballing.

Tray Dub wrote:Good catch. Yeah, that's an interesting disparity between the odds for those two things. I guess the thinking is, this team has pretty high variance, so if we're good enough to make the Final Four that means our young guys have really panned out, so we have the talent to go all the way. A more veteran team might be more likely to get to the Final Four, but may not have the talent to seal the deal. Maybe? Just spitballing.

Honestly this makes a lot of sense when you think about it. The flip side of this is Nevada (where I live) who is 3-1 to be in the FF, but 12-1 to win it all. Those odds seem on point too. With their returning players they could go far, but like Oregon in 2016, they likely don't have the depth to hold off the establish programs. With Boucher we had a great shot at the Championship game, without him we were missing an important defensive element.