Great article untangling the Race for the Roses...

[MerDuck]

I was saying overall record should matter...but I am going to investigate the other possibility a little myself...I'm not so sure you would end up with a wash...more to come...


Edited:

Ok so I did some math:

Obviously to us fans right now the only reason this matters is if the ducks lose one of their remaining games....most likely @ AZ. Also Assuming that AZ and USC Win out qith USC winning the game over AZ....we would end up with the dreaded 3-way tie being discussed....there are other possibilities..but I see this as the most likely id the ducks lose one more...

Here is my prediction of the Final Standings of the PAC:

Place//Team///Conf. Record//Lost to
1st).......OR................7-2.............AZ & STAN
............USC...............7-2.............OR & WA
.............AZ................7-2............. USC & WA
4th)......OSU...............6-3
...........STAN..............6-3
6th).......CAL..............4-5
7th).......WA...............3-6
8th)......ASU...............2-7
...........UCLA..............2-7
9th)......WSU..............0-9

So If we were to go with the current system....USC Wins and goes to the Rose Bowl...we have already figured that out.....

If we go with Wheaton's idea: we end up with the following:

AZ: the teams they beat beat a total of 27 other teams while the teams the lost to lost to 8 other teams...

USC: Same as Arizona...27-8

OR: ends up with a 24-5 record if you look at the teams they beat and lost too...


But over all they each end up with the same record of +10 wins...so it's a wash as Tray suggested....

If you go with my idea and end up looking at a teams Overall win/loss record including OOC games:

OR: 10-2
USC: 10-2
AZ: 9-3

Clearly AZ is dropped and then you would have to go to some other tie breaker for USC and OR and that would most likely be a head-to-head....so Oregon would go to the Rose Bowl...

I think that my idea works best...even if it ended up being a different team in the Rose Bowl because then a teams overall performance would be taken into account instead of other teams (that shouldn't even be part of the discussion) performance...

thoughts?

[MerDuck]

No I need to get back to work...before I get in trouble and lose my job...and therefore don't care who ends up in the Rose Bowl because I won't be able to afford to go! I'll check back later!

[Tray Dub]

Thanks for doing the proof. I don't think it's fair to make tie-breakers dependent on OOC scheduling. It gives teams too big an incentive to schedule cupcakes.

It's definitely a hard call, but I think the current set-up works best.

[UOducksTK1]

Life would be so much easier if OSU losses to Washington, Arizona losses to Cal, and USC beats up on Stanford this weekend.

Then we could lose one game from here on out and still win the pac-10 and go to the rose bowl. Otherwise, winning out is the only guarantee.

[dthomas=ddixon]

Ok am I the only one that feels that if we lose another game, WE DON'T DESERVE A ROSE BOWL BERTH? Honestly, if we can't close out this season & just win the Pac 10 straight up, not by a 10 way 3 layer tie break, I don't really want one. I mean, if we somehow lose another game but still end up in the RB I'd obviously be happy. But at the same time, I wouldn't feel justified. To know that we had the same record as 2-3 others teams, couldn't seperate ourselves from the pac but got in because of some wacky tie breaks... not very satisfying IMO.

[MerDuck]

Ok am I the only one that feels that if we lose another game, WE DON'T DESERVE A ROSE BOWL BERTH? Honestly, if we can't close out this season & just win the Pac 10 straight up, not by a 10 way 3 layer tie break, I don't really want one. I mean, if we somehow lose another game but still end up in the RB I'd obviously be happy. But at the same time, I wouldn't feel justified. To know that we had the same record as 2-3 others teams, couldn't seperate ourselves from the pac but got in because of some wacky tie breaks... not very satisfying IMO.

I agree...the only reason I was doing the analysis is because I think the tie breaker system is crappy....but if what TK1's scenario worked out...I would def feel that we still deserved to go to the rose bowl....because then we would end up in a tie with USC which we have the head to head over....I know we would have 2 Pac ten losses and 3 overall...but that merely means that the Pac ten was all around better then we expected at the beginning of the year.....if we win we win... if we lose we lose....I will be happy and excited and feel that the team is deserving if they make it to the Rose Bowl in any scenario....however I don't think that we will make it if we don;t win out...I just have a feeling that the cards aren't going to fall that way

[wheaton4prez]

Thank you for doing those calculations. But, it is only a tie in that one case. In other cases, the idea I proposed would not be a tie and would determine who goes based on all of their games. In the event of a tie like this, it should move to another stat like it does in the NFL: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Specifying the 4th ranked team result without factoring in the other game results allows all kinds of wonky possibilities.

I don't think that it should include OOC games because the difficulty of those opponents varies too much. As mentioned, it would encourage teams to go after cupcakes.

[MerDuck]

Thank you for doing those calculations. But, it is only a tie in that one case. In other cases, the idea I proposed would not be a tie and would determine who goes based on all of their games. In the event of a tie like this, it should move to another stat like it does in the NFL: http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

Specifying the 4th ranked team result without factoring in the other game results allows all kinds of wonky possibilities.

I don't think that it should include OOC games because the difficulty of those opponents varies too much. As mentioned, it would encourage teams to go after cupcakes.

Didn't get a chance to check out the NFL rules yet...but I will...more to come on that...

I think teams already have an incentive to schedule cupcakes....every year we have the debate over Oregon's schedule and whether or not it is to strong and we need to schedule weaker OOC games, or whether or not it is better because it helps out with the Computers...

With the advent of the BCS NC game and the reality that every team in the pac is really playing for that game means that each team needs to way the risk/reward of scheduling so called "cupcakes"...

unless we think the Rose Bowl team selection matters more than the BCS NC selection I don't see what the big deal is in using the OOC schedule....

[wheaton4prez]

You're right that there already is incentive to schedule cupcakes to influence the BCS. But, that really only applies to teams that can be certain that they will get strong human poll results for their in-conference teams (SEC).

Using OOC results for Pac-10 tie breakers would just be one more incentive on top of that. I'd like to see things move in the opposite direction, personally.

Also, I realized that we both made a mistake regarding the analysis that you did. You can't compare a 27-8 record to 24-5 on the basis of spread because they aren't the same number of total games. You have to adjust for that difference by using a percentage. So, we were missing a step there.

Win percentage of beaten opponents wins / lost-to opponents losses:

Arizona: .7714
USC: .7714
OR: .8725

Oregon would win the tie-breaker (not that that is a reason for why this system would give us results on a more comprehensive basis).