Ducks remain #6 in 2nd CFP Poll

73duck · Post by **73duck** » Sun Nov 26, 2023 1:19 pm

> Ducks are golden. Just need to beat UW.

The ESPN playoff predictor has Oregon at 71% if it beats UW.

We don't know how close the votes between Oregon and Texas have been behind closed doors. Texas just slaughtered a common opponent, and an Alabama win over Georgia would give Alabama a spot, and boost the Texas SOR. Plus, some folks would like to see a one-loss Georgia over Oregon.

If Oregon stays ahead of Texas in this week's poll, and Georgia beats Alabama, Oregon is almost certainly in.

I think the ESPN predictor has it about right.

Post by **UOducksTK1** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 2:50 pm

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -predictor

Any scenario you pick where Oregon wins on Friday, Oregon is in. The more debatable factor is what seed we'd be (for example if Georgia or Florida State lose).

squintsdd · Post by **squintsdd** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 4:21 pm

UOducksTK1 wrote:https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -predictor

Any scenario you pick where Oregon wins on Friday, Oregon is in. The more debatable factor is what seed we'd be (for example if Georgia or Florida State lose).

There's even a scenario with Oregon being the 1 seed overall

whosyourwally · Post by **whosyourwally** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 8:10 pm

What team would you least want to play in the first round? Georgia feels like the easy answer, having not lost a game since ‘Nam, but I don’t want to play Texas. They’re looking like they’ve turned a corner. I can see them blowing out OK State, sneaking into the CFP, and coming in hot. Georgia and Michigan look somewhat limited offensively, UGA and Bama seem inconsistent on defense, and FSU isn’t dangerous.

I’d love to see Oregon somehow land the 3 seed and play an Oregon State/Utah-esque Michigan that would need to run on Oregon to stay in the game.

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QuackininBama · Post by **QuackininBama** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 8:14 pm

whosyourwally wrote:What team would you least want to play in the first round? Georgia feels like the easy answer, having not lost a game since ‘Nam, but I don’t want to play Texas. They’re looking like they’ve turned a corner. I can see them blowing out OK State, sneaking into the CFP, and coming in hot. Georgia and Michigan look somewhat limited offensively, UGA and Bama seem inconsistent on defense, and FSU isn’t dangerous.

I’d love to see Oregon somehow land the 3 seed and play an Oregon State/Utah-esque Michigan that would need to run on Oregon to stay in the game.

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Without a doubt, Ohio St. I see the Georgia thing, Alabama, but I think matchup wise, Ohio St kills us. I actually see Michigan as our easiest matchup. They are big, and very slow.

Duck07 · Post by **Duck07** » Mon Nov 27, 2023 8:49 pm

Georgia
Michigan
Texas
-------
Bama
OSU
uw
FSU

Tray Dub · Post by **Tray Dub** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:08 pm

Bama at #8, Texas at #7, both behind Ohio State in the new committee rankings. I think that's a really good sign for us.

Tray Dub · Post by **Tray Dub** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:12 pm

Oregon at #5. Win and in.

QuackininBama · Post by **QuackininBama** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:27 pm

The committee loves the Ducks. They even said they love the Ducks. Win and they are in.

Post by **UOducksTK1** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:30 pm

Tray Dub wrote:Oregon at #5. Win and in.

Yup.

73duck · Post by **73duck** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:44 pm

I just read the article on ESPN. The nitwit who wrote it thought that the position of FSU and OSU was the big story. The real issue is what happens if Alabama and Texas win on Saturday; do they jump Oregon? On that front, sticking OSU between Oregon and Texas is great news, and the real story today.

Tray Dub · Post by **Tray Dub** » Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:45 pm

To again put the Vegas odds into percentage terms, FanDuel gives us a 78.3% chance (-360) to beat Washington and a 78.0% chance (-355) to make the playoffs, meaning only 3 times out of 1000 should we win and get left out. I like them odds.

73duck · Post by **73duck** » Wed Nov 29, 2023 7:48 am

Rankings criteria
College Football Playoff selectors create Top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field. The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

Strength of schedule
Head-to-head game results
Results vs. teams in Top 25 rankings
Results vs. common opponents
Conference championships
Selectors are allowed to use a variety of advanced analytics to gauge teams' performance, but those numbers don't play a formal role in determining Top 25 rankings, which is a decision made by selectors' own judgement.

I can definitely see why Texas fans will be upset if they beat OSU and get left out.

SuperDuck · Post by **SuperDuck** » Wed Nov 29, 2023 8:17 am

73duck wrote:Rankings criteria
College Football Playoff selectors create Top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field. The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

Strength of schedule
Head-to-head game results
Results vs. teams in Top 25 rankings
Results vs. common opponents
Conference championships
Selectors are allowed to use a variety of advanced analytics to gauge teams' performance, but those numbers don't play a formal role in determining Top 25 rankings, which is a decision made by selectors' own judgement.

I can definitely see why Texas fans will be upset if they beat OSU and get left out.

I can't imagine a scenario with Georgia being left out even if they lose to Alabama. Ranked #1 nearly all season, 29 game winning streak, 2 time defending champion. I just don't see it.

IMO, FSU shouldn't be in the top 4 anymore. It seems so unfair to their players and fanbase, but they aren't nearly as good without Jordon Travis at QB. Hopefully they'll lose to Louisville and end this discussion. If not, if Alabama and/or Texas wins their conference, they should jump Ohio State and FSU and one of them should get in. Texas would have a HUGE case!

I think the Oregon/UW winner should be in, as well as Michigan (if they win), and Georgia. If Texas beats Oklahoma State I think they should be in, as well.

I don't think Ohio State belongs in the field at all now that they've lost the opportunity to be a conference champion. IMO, Texas should be behind Oregon.

ducks5ever · Post by **ducks5ever** » Wed Nov 29, 2023 9:12 am

73duck wrote:Rankings criteria
College Football Playoff selectors create Top 25 rankings based on their evaluation of teams’ performance on the field. The committee employs several metrics to select the best teams.

Strength of schedule
Head-to-head game results
Results vs. teams in Top 25 rankings
Results vs. common opponents
Conference championships
Selectors are allowed to use a variety of advanced analytics to gauge teams' performance, but those numbers don't play a formal role in determining Top 25 rankings, which is a decision made by selectors' own judgement.

I can definitely see why Texas fans will be upset if they beat OSU and get left out.

It's not the committee's fault that Texas hasn't looked dominant late in the season. TCU by 3? Houston by 1 TD?

Ducks remain #6 in 2nd CFP Poll

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