ESPN playoff predictor

[DuckzRule]

I decided to test it and choose every possible scenario involving the Ducks winning against the Huskies, and surprisingly, they aren't left out in any single one (unless Washington wins)

If Alabama beats Georgia and every other conference game goes as expected, it claims the playoff won't have any SEC team and we will face Florida State.

If every favored team wins, Oregon will make the CFP as the Number 4 seed.


Of course I don't know how accurate the predictor is, but they are giving us really good chances to make the playoff if we win the Pac-12.

[pezsez1]

I'd thought the only locks for the playoff at this point were the SEC and Pac-12 champs, but now I think only the Pac-12 champ is a guaranteed lock. There's simply no way that #5 Oregon with a 3-pt road loss to #3 is left out if we win on Friday. The committee loves us and has had us as the top one-loss team all year and nothing has happened to change that. In fact, by drilling OSU we outperformed every other ranked team on Friday/Saturday other than Michigan.

But we've got to beat Washington. We don't deserve the playoffs if we can't take care of business.

[StevensTechU]

Big Ten champ is probably a lock, similar to TCU last year after losing to Kansas State.

[Duck07]

Big Ten champ is probably a lock, similar to TCU last year after losing to Kansas State.

11-2 Iowa would need FSU to lose ugly, UT to lose, Bama to lose, and UW to lose Penix to injury when they look like they'll only make a marginal rise in the playoff rankings to around 15. That's a hard measure in the last week to somehow jump them 10+ spots on the back on 1 win against UM when they got blanked by PSU and dropped by Minnesota.

I think the only thing an Iowa win does is put us potentially up to #2 though I suppose there is a path to UO being #1 on the back of thrashing UW on Friday night followed by FSU, UM and UGA all losing lol. Improbable, not impossible.

[StevensTechU]

Sorry, I should have said "Michigan" not "Big Ten champ." Michigan will get in even with a loss, with their wins over Ohio State and Penn State.

[duckpoint]

My interpretation of the talking heads and TPTB of college football is that "they" want both Bama & Texas in. If Bama gets in and Texas doesn't, it is a controversy they would rather not confront.

If FSU loses and opens up a slot in the top 4, the battle for that slot will be between the loser of the SEC championship and Texas (assuming they win Big 12).

Big 10: If Michigan loses it could get messy (unlikely).
SEC: If UGA wins, Bama is out, If Bama wins they will try to find a way to keep both in.
PAC 12: Winner is in, loser is out.
ACC: FSU has to win or ACC gets snubbed in favor of B1g 12 champ Texas or SEC loser. If the SEC loser is Georgia, they probably get the nod.

I would only add that in a messy and more unlikely scenario of top teams losing, OSU and perhaps the loser of PAC 12 could sneak in.

Still lots of room for controversy!

[nogerO]

And some TV show from the SEC network and they were trying desperately to make the case for Georgia and Alabama in the playoffs pretty much ignoring everybody else. Doesn’t really surprise me though.

[duckpoint]

And some TV show from the SEC network and they were trying desperately to make the case for Georgia and Alabama in the playoffs pretty much ignoring everybody else. Doesn’t really surprise me though.

The "reasoning" is...

If Bama wins, the SEC champ has to be in, and a 1 loss UGA deserves to be in because they were undefeated and very highly ranked all season until...

By that logic, none of the current undefeated teams (or OSU?) can be eliminated from the playoffs!

They also argue an elevated status for UGA based on previous years performance.

[pezsez1]

I just don't think a team makes it in this year without winning its conference title. That includes Georgia and Michigan. The top of college football this year is just too good, and really the playoff should be filled with teams that win their conferences. It's always understandable when non-champs get in, but this isn't a year when it would make sense -- not unless a lot of really crazy stuff happens on this final weekend.

And, as I said before, the Pac-12 champ is a lock. Two elite teams with respectable strengths of schedule that have won all year -- one being perfect, the other being consistently dominant -- and are consistently ranked in playoff positioning by the committee. Neither gets left out with a win.

[Phalanx]

And some TV show from the SEC network and they were trying desperately to make the case for Georgia and Alabama in the playoffs pretty much ignoring everybody else. Doesn’t really surprise me though.

The "reasoning" is...

If Bama wins, the SEC champ has to be in, and a 1 loss UGA deserves to be in because they were undefeated and very highly ranked all season until...

By that logic, none of the current undefeated teams (or OSU?) can be eliminated from the playoffs!

They also argue an elevated status for UGA based on previous years performance.

So basically, the Pac 12 championship is a nice way to eliminate one or both teams from contention, but the SEC championship game only helps the winner and does nothing to the loser.

And this is how you get years of no playoff berths for the Pac 12, and ultimately this is why the conference broke up.

[duckpoint]

And some TV show from the SEC network and they were trying desperately to make the case for Georgia and Alabama in the playoffs pretty much ignoring everybody else. Doesn’t really surprise me though.

The "reasoning" is...

If Bama wins, the SEC champ has to be in, and a 1 loss UGA deserves to be in because they were undefeated and very highly ranked all season until...

By that logic, none of the current undefeated teams (or OSU?) can be eliminated from the playoffs!

They also argue an elevated status for UGA based on previous years performance.

So basically, the Pac 12 championship is a nice way to eliminate one or both teams from contention, but the SEC championship game only helps the winner and does nothing to the loser.

And this is how you get years of no playoff berths for the Pac 12, and ultimately this is why the conference broke up.

I think the PAC 12 is safe this year as of today based on the quality of the matchup. (no controversy)

Big 10 with a UM loss would lose the spot or OSU would get bumped up. (controversy)

Big 12 winner needs FSU to lose.

ACC needs FSU to win.

It won't take much for them to find the excuse to put in the second SEC team, but the ESPN calculator seems to favor OSU sneaking in some of the scenarios...

[buckmarkduck]

Big Ten champ is probably a lock, similar to TCU last year after losing to Kansas State.

Iowa isn’t a lock

[bellsduck]

The only reason they would leave Alabama out if they beat Georgia is because they don't want the controversy of possibly leaving Texas out. Then they have another controversy of leaving the SEC out completely. Could you imagine? So potentially it could come down to Oregon v. Texas v. Georgia for the 4th team in assuming FSU and Michigan win.
Oregon and Texas with the benefit of conference titles.
Oregon with the benefit of looking the part and maybe the best win outside a Alabama win over Georgia, and maybe the best loss.
Texas with the benefit of beating another playoff team (Alabama) and a tougher SOS than Oregon.
Georgia with the benefit of being a 2-time defending champion with maybe best loss.

[dd10snoop28]

The only reason they would leave Alabama out if they beat Georgia is because they don't want the controversy of possibly leaving Texas out. Then they have another controversy of leaving the SEC out completely. Could you imagine? So potentially it could come down to Oregon v. Texas v. Georgia for the 4th team in assuming FSU and Michigan win.
Oregon and Texas with the benefit of conference titles.
Oregon with the benefit of looking the part and maybe the best win outside a Alabama win over Georgia, and maybe the best loss.
Texas with the benefit of beating another playoff team (Alabama) and a tougher SOS than Oregon.
Georgia with the benefit of being a 2-time defending champion with maybe best loss.

I don't think the committee would have any problem leaving out Texas if Bama beats Georgia.

Georgia is the most valued team in college football by far so Alabama beating them on the last weekend of the year would catapult them past UT....what do I mean by "valued"? Basically, any team that beats Georgia (due to their reputation the past 3 years) gets huge brownie points... IMO, value of Bama beating Georgia in the conf championship >>>>>> Texas beating Bama early in the season,

With that being said, IMO, the Georgia/Alabama combo is the ONLY way that Oregon does not make the playoff. Bama would have to beat Georgia in a really close/exciting game for that even to be a possibility. I'd still put the likelihood of Oregon being left out in that scenario as less than 25% but who knows...

[nogerO]

And some TV show from the SEC network and they were trying desperately to make the case for Georgia and Alabama in the playoffs pretty much ignoring everybody else. Doesn’t really surprise me though.

The "reasoning" is...

If Bama wins, the SEC champ has to be in, and a 1 loss UGA deserves to be in because they were undefeated and very highly ranked all season until...

By that logic, none of the current undefeated teams (or OSU?) can be eliminated from the playoffs!

They also argue an elevated status for UGA based on previous years performance.

None of that crap matters, especially what a team did last year or before. I'm confident Oregon wins friday and we're in the playoffs and BRING IT ON! Go DUCKS!!!