Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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squintsdd
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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dd10snoop28 wrote:
squintsdd wrote:
dd10snoop28 wrote:Lillard is at peak value. If blazers were smart, they've be devoting all of their resources to shipping off Lillard over next 12 months.

If anybody thinks that Lillard-led blazers will ever compete with the Nuggets during Lillard's career, then lol. It's the same thing as the Warriors for the same 2016-2020 stretch. We had 0% chance of ever getting past the warriors with Lillard so we wasted all of those years.

I digress.
Well, a Lillard led blazers team beat the nuggets in the past to go to the western conference finals, so they can compete with him. Also, Lillard is not at his peak, which means he not at peak value. He's aging and has a very hefty contract. Neither of those indicate peak value to any GM in the league.

I would prefer Portland not mortgage their future just to keep Lillard happy for the next couple of seasons, but I'm also not opposed to keeping him if they can get a no brainer trade for the 3rd pick and/or Simons
Nuggets are vastly improved talent-wise, have a core that has been together for 7 years, and all their main players are just hitting their prime (Jokic/other guy). They are not even close to the same team that we played in the playoffs and it was as evenly-matched series as you will get. No way we are coming close to beating them now.

When I say peak value for Lillard, I mean that today is the highest value he will ever hold (going forward).
It's hard to argue against the stats that Lillard put up last season. It was arguably the best season of his career, so I disagree when you say a Lillard lead blazer team can't beat the nuggets. If there's a GM out there that believes the 3rd pick holds enough value to blow up his own team and start new, which I believe there is, then Lillard can still thrive in Portland. That being said, I agree that Portland should be shopping Lillard before they ship the 3rd pick. His age is tough to look past
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pezsez1 »

The more I see of Scoot Henderson, the more I find myself leaning toward trading Lillard (if this boils down to a binary choice).

I do think Scoot could play alongside Lillard far better than CJ or Ant, but that ignores the fact that Sharpe should be our starting SG next season. We just don't have room for another ultra-talented guard. And it's really not logical to trade Dame based on hopes that either Henderson or Sharpe will someday be as good as he is (even at his age) because that's honestly pretty unlikely. Dame is a Top 75 all-time great and probably the best player in franchise history. It's unrealistic to expect anyone to be that good.

A youth movement would definitely be exciting, but small market teams rarely win by punting. Risks must be taken eventually.

I'm extremely conflicted though.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by dd10snoop28 »

squintsdd wrote:
dd10snoop28 wrote:
squintsdd wrote:
dd10snoop28 wrote:Lillard is at peak value. If blazers were smart, they've be devoting all of their resources to shipping off Lillard over next 12 months.

If anybody thinks that Lillard-led blazers will ever compete with the Nuggets during Lillard's career, then lol. It's the same thing as the Warriors for the same 2016-2020 stretch. We had 0% chance of ever getting past the warriors with Lillard so we wasted all of those years.

I digress.
Well, a Lillard led blazers team beat the nuggets in the past to go to the western conference finals, so they can compete with him. Also, Lillard is not at his peak, which means he not at peak value. He's aging and has a very hefty contract. Neither of those indicate peak value to any GM in the league.

I would prefer Portland not mortgage their future just to keep Lillard happy for the next couple of seasons, but I'm also not opposed to keeping him if they can get a no brainer trade for the 3rd pick and/or Simons
Nuggets are vastly improved talent-wise, have a core that has been together for 7 years, and all their main players are just hitting their prime (Jokic/other guy). They are not even close to the same team that we played in the playoffs and it was as evenly-matched series as you will get. No way we are coming close to beating them now.

When I say peak value for Lillard, I mean that today is the highest value he will ever hold (going forward).
It's hard to argue against the stats that Lillard put up last season. It was arguably the best season of his career, so I disagree when you say a Lillard lead blazer team can't beat the nuggets. If there's a GM out there that believes the 3rd pick holds enough value to blow up his own team and start new, which I believe there is, then Lillard can still thrive in Portland. That being said, I agree that Portland should be shopping Lillard before they ship the 3rd pick. His age is tough to look past
Lillard having a career doesn't necessarily translate to any meaningful step forward for the Blazers. In fact, it's safe to say that a team where Lillard averages 30ppg is a team that will NEVER be a contender. There are a few reasons for this.

Also, you and I both forgot to mention that, most recently, a Murray-less Nuggets beat a full-strength Blazers team in 6 games in 2021 playoffs.

Since then, the Nuggets have markedly improved, while the Blazers have become more dependent on Lillard (thus producing greater stats) than ever.

There is just no chance that a Lillard-led blazers team could ever beat a Murray/Joker-led nuggets team. Not reality.

Nuggets have star power, depth, multiple scoring options, played together for 5+ years, and developed talent. Blazers only have Lillard and some raw young guys.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by dd10snoop28 »

pezsez1 wrote:And it's really not logical to trade Dame based on hopes that either Henderson or Sharpe will someday be as good as he is (even at his age) because that's honestly pretty unlikely. Dame is a Top 75 all-time great and probably the best player in franchise history. It's unrealistic to expect anyone to be that good.
Dame is an amazing individual talent; however, prime Brandon Roy contributed more to winning than what a Dame-led team can do.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

It might be hard to replace Lillard's stats, but replacing results by the team should be relatively easy. In an 11-year career, Lillard has only won 22 playoff games and lost 40. That's an average of two playoff wins per season. I don't know how many players on the top NBA lists have done so badly, but it can't be many. By contrast, Clyde Drexler won 45 playoff games in the same time period, and that was in the days when the first round was only best of five.

If the Blazers can find some sucker GM on another team to take Lillard's contract and if Cronin can draft well, they should easily be able to improve over the results of the last several years. Get some guys in here who feel like they belong, rather than bringing in temporary players every year who already know it's 'Lillard's team' and that he will be taking most of the shots. The Lillard-led team experiment is objectively a failure. Time to move on.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pezsez1 »

Ehhh, most other NBA stars play with other all stars which is why they have more playoff wins. Dame has done exceptionally well at simply getting to the playoffs considering how little help he's had.

That said, even if Dame stays, the Blazers should be able to greatly improve the roster without having to make massive moves. Probably not enough to contend -- for that, we'd need someone on the roster like Sharpe to take a big step forward this next season -- but definitely better. Much like the Lakers did this past offseason by simply getting pieces that fit better with AD and Lebron. The Blazers need more talent, but they also need size, length, and more consistent shot making (and shot creation) beyond Dame. He'd have a lot more assists per game if he could dish to more competent teammates.

I'm sure there are teams on the verge of contending that would gladly take Lillard's contract. The bigger question is whether Portland (under Queen Jodi) is willing to go into full rebuild mode. I highly doubt us swapping super stars if we trade Dame... it's going to be Dame in return for youth/picks.

BTW, interesting WSJ piece about how PK is still trying to buy the team... and an interesting note from Canzano about a convo he had with a source at Vulcan who said Jodi is probably collecting up to $150 mil per year in management fees for basically sitting on the Blazers.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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pezsez1 wrote:Ehhh, most other NBA stars play with other all stars which is why they have more playoff wins. Dame has done exceptionally well at simply getting to the playoffs considering how little help he's had.
Maybe, or maybe a lot of all-stars are chosen because they played on winning teams. Porter and Duckworth probably don't make an all-star team if they don't play with Clyde, and if Lillard and McCollum had been more successful, maybe C.J. gets picked for an All-Star game now and then. P.S. LMA was an All-Star all three years he and Lillard played together, but that was before they started supermaxing Lillard. These days, a lot of Lillard's help is in his pocket, just like Carmelo all those years.

Dame is overpaid, and he is weighing the team down. The choice is pretty clear: Keep his contract and keep sucking, or find a GM to take him off our hands and start building an actual team with multiple talented players.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pezsez1 »

I disagree that Dame is overpaid, but I do believe he WOULD be overpaid if Father Time catches up with him by the end of his contract.

The choice isn't as binary as you make it. I mean, I could just as easily say the choice is 1) go for it now while we have a top-75 player, or 2) trade him away and possibly never have as good of an opportunity for another 20 years.

It all depends on which deals are available and whether Cronin can pull them off.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by dd10snoop28 »

The amount of assets needed to build up a contender is unrealistic. IF you want a real contender, these things need to happen:

(1) You need a legitimate second star with Lillard who meshes well with Lillard. Unforatenyl, there are probably only a select few people who will gel with Lillard's style because of his ball-dominant habits he has developed because he is the only option for the blazers.
(2) Need seriously good role players (see Nuggets as an example). Another star/elite playmaker isn't enough. Look at the Suns. They had Durant, CP3, Booker, and Ayton (i.e. star power) but no depth and got demolished by the Nuggets.
(3) Develop chemistry in an insanely short amount of time. There is a reason that the teams that have had the same core for multi-years are the best teams (Nuggets/Heat/Celtics/Lakers).

The amount of resources needed to obtain (1) and (2) isn't realistic, but even if they did, it takes years to develop chemistry (especially adjusting to Dame's ball-dominant style) to become a contender.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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pezsez1 wrote: The choice isn't as binary as you make it. I mean, I could just as easily say the choice is 1) go for it now while we have a top-75 player, or 2) trade him away and possibly never have as good of an opportunity for another 20 years.
I didn't see a sarcastic font...are you serious? It's like the last two years of being at the bottom of the league never happened.

What opportunity are you talking about? The Blazers are terrible. There is no talent pipeline outside of Sharpe, who Damian didn't want to draft. They've been trading away draft picks for years for players that never end up staying. Heck, half the time, the Blazers don't even try to keep them anymore - they get traded away now before they have a chance to sign somewhere else. Lillard is wildly overpaid; the dude couldn't play defense to save his life. The Blazers should bring Payton Pritchard in for defensive situations; that's how bad Lillard is.

How is this even an argument? You have years of data to draw from here. They were never close to contending all the time Lillard has been the 'franchise player'. It's like thinking Joey Harrington could have been a star if only Millen had taken one more receiver in the first round.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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I didn't see a sarcastic font...are you serious? It's like the last two years of being at the bottom of the league never happened.
You mean the one where Dame was injured for most of the year (and we deliberately tanked) or the one when Dame's only co-shooter was the steaky Anfernee Simons (and we still had a shot at the play-in before management opted to deliberately tank)?

Seriously, if there's one thing I hate more than anything when "debating" sports it's when people cherrypick little parts of reality to shape a narrative.

Look at the bigger picture. Dame-led teams with reasonable talent are playoff-caliber teams. This should be the baseline of our discussion. Let's not pretend this isn't the case.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pudgejeff »

Phalanx wrote:
pezsez1 wrote: The choice isn't as binary as you make it. I mean, I could just as easily say the choice is 1) go for it now while we have a top-75 player, or 2) trade him away and possibly never have as good of an opportunity for another 20 years.
I didn't see a sarcastic font...are you serious? It's like the last two years of being at the bottom of the league never happened.

What opportunity are you talking about? The Blazers are terrible. There is no talent pipeline outside of Sharpe, who Damian didn't want to draft. They've been trading away draft picks for years for players that never end up staying. Heck, half the time, the Blazers don't even try to keep them anymore - they get traded away now before they have a chance to sign somewhere else. Lillard is wildly overpaid; the dude couldn't play defense to save his life. The Blazers should bring Payton Pritchard in for defensive situations; that's how bad Lillard is.

How is this even an argument? You have years of data to draw from here. They were never close to contending all the time Lillard has been the 'franchise player'. It's like thinking Joey Harrington could have been a star if only Millen had taken one more receiver in the first round.
The problem is you continue to imply that they will be able to contend if they trade him, and it seems like a completely valid argument that if they trade him in all likelihood they will not contend or even come close to contending for an NBA championship in the next 20 years(Just like the majority of the rest of the teams in the NBA). This isn't to say they shouldn't trade him, so please don't retort with something along those lines because that's not what I'm saying here. Just please stop acting like it will be this simple equation of trade Lillard, wait a few years and voila ready made contender.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by dd10snoop28 »

Being a 5-10 seed is not the same as competing for a championship. Throughout Lillard's career, I can say with confidence that I have never considered any of the his non-Aldridge teams to be a legitimate title contender, and I think most non-PDX experts would agree with that.

Whenever the Lillard-led blazers faced a true contender the results were:

GSW: 4-0
GSW: 4-0
LAL: 4-1
DEN: 4-2 (Denver w/o Murray)

Why waste 3 more years of above-average basketball teams when you can tank and trade Lillard for value, and start accumulating talent through the high draft picks?

People don't realize that sucking the NBA can make you a contender within just a few years (i.e. see every contending team in the NBA).
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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pezsez1 wrote:
You mean the one where Dame was injured for most of the year (and we deliberately tanked) or the one when Dame's only co-shooter was the steaky Anfernee Simons (and we still had a shot at the play-in before management opted to deliberately tank)?

Seriously, if there's one thing I hate more than anything when "debating" sports it's when people cherrypick little parts of reality to shape a narrative.

Look at the bigger picture. Dame-led teams with reasonable talent are playoff-caliber teams. This should be the baseline of our discussion. Let's not pretend this isn't the case.
Pffft. More than half the league makes the playoffs, 67% make the play-in. Having a 'shot at the play-in' (they would have had to go 8-2 to get in) is true for over 80% of the league every year. This is not an accomplishment; it doesn't mean you are good. Every year, 4 teams that actually make the play-in end up in the lottery. The Blazers have been on a steady decline for years now; the last two years are just the latest stages of the descent. Not all of it is Lillard's fault, of course. The team has been grossly mismanaged since LaMarcus left, but part of that mismanagement has been the crazy contract extensions given to Dolla-sucking Dame. He gets paid more than Nikola Jokic, a 2-time MVP who is 4 years younger and playing right now in the finals. Absolutely ridiculous. Only Portland would have signed him to such a monstrosity, which is why he was so 'loyal' right up until he signed it. Once he secured the money, he thereafter felt free to whine in the media and threaten to demand a trade if he didn't get his way, knowing that he is guaranteed the money no matter what happens now.

Citing the Blazers record over a span of several years is hardly cherry-picking. It's actually the most objective way to view Lillard's effectiveness, which is why his fans avoid it.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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dd10snoop28 wrote:Being a 5-10 seed is not the same as competing for a championship. Throughout Lillard's career, I can say with confidence that I have never considered any of the his non-Aldridge teams to be a legitimate title contender, and I think most non-PDX experts would agree with that.

Whenever the Lillard-led blazers faced a true contender the results were:

GSW: 4-0
GSW: 4-0
LAL: 4-1
DEN: 4-2 (Denver w/o Murray)

Why waste 3 more years of above-average basketball teams when you can tank and trade Lillard for value, and start accumulating talent through the high draft picks?

People don't realize that sucking the NBA can make you a contender within just a few years (i.e. see every contending team in the NBA).
It is really rough, Golden State was unreasonably good during the best teams in Dame's career, not to say I think anyone of them were really "contender" worthy but they didn't really have a chance either way. I'm not even sure the LA/Dame teams were true contenders either but were the closest if you had to pick some. A team like Portland is going to have to get very lucky in the draft ala Denver, plus be patient in trades waiting for a team that is selling cheap and getting a steal instead of overpaying or even paying market value. I think that could have happened over the last 3-4 years but it just didn't, and they are in a really rough spot now where they're probably gonna be the one's selling on the cheap. My guess is if they trade Dame, both Sharpe and Scoot will move on to another team before Portland can put it together and they end up in a cycle of overpaying for some free agents again. But you can't not take the shot just cause it "might" or even "probably" will end up like that.
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