Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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Phalanx
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

pudgejeff wrote:
The problem is you continue to imply that they will be able to contend if they trade him, and it seems like a completely valid argument that if they trade him in all likelihood they will not contend or even come close to contending for an NBA championship in the next 20 years(Just like the majority of the rest of the teams in the NBA). This isn't to say they shouldn't trade him, so please don't retort with something along those lines because that's not what I'm saying here. Just please stop acting like it will be this simple equation of trade Lillard, wait a few years and voila ready made contender.
What are you going on about? The Blazers suck NOW. It's not really difficult to imagine improvement from here if they bring in new personnel. I have no idea where your 20 year timeline comes from, but you are totally off. Half the teams in the NBA have made it to the Finals in the last 20 years. With a team willing to pay right up to the luxury tax, the Blazers would be defying the odds NOT to be a contender some time in the next 20 years. All I have been 'implying' in that regard is that the sooner they jettison Lillard, the sooner the timeline to contention starts. They are not moving toward contention with Lillard and his contract, they are trading away draft picks (e.g. the future of the team) for players who only stay a year or two. They could potentially start moving in that direction if they get rid of him. I'll take the scenario that at least carries with it a glimmer of hope.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pezsez1 »

My guess is if they trade Dame, both Sharpe and Scoot will move on to another team before Portland can put it together and they end up in a cycle of overpaying for some free agents again.
This, this, this, this, this.

People who are eager to trade Dame just aren't thinking this through. The Blazers are extremely fortunate to have a player of Dame's caliber who actually wants to be here.

Look at the two other greatest Blazers of all time. Walton barely played and left after a short (but troubled) stay. Drexler seemed to like it here, but then he skipped town to chase a ring in Houston. So far, Dame stands alone as the franchise's best player who also wants to be here despite injury issues, coaching changes, roster deficiencies, etc.

Sharpe or Scoot might bail at the first chance to sign in a bigger market. Maybe they sign extensions but then catch a case of the ADs/KDs/etc and basically pout their ways out. Maybe they end up with systemic injury issues. Maybe one is a loose cannon. Or maybe they get real NBA minutes and -- gasp -- they're not really that good. In recent years, a sizable chunk of fans wanted to dump off Dame to make room for Anfernee Simons, and how did that turn out? Sure, he's a decent player, but after getting big minutes it's hard to see him ever being an all-star caliber player.

Dame is a Top 75 player. The chances of either Scoot or Sharpe ever reaching that level are incredibly slim. The chances they'll actually want to spend their careers in Portland are probably ever smaller.

Dame's contract is HUGE. Yes, that causes problems, especially with a tightwad "owner" like Jodi. But that's the price of loyalty, and nobody here should fault Dame for taking the max money that is offered to him. Getting the biggest chunk of cheddar is kind of the point of the whole American game, isn't it? Jokic is younger than Dame and will eventually make Dame-level money. So will all other superstars who stay with their teams and don't jump ship when things get rough. The only reason Dame makes so much is that most other superstars bounce around chasing rings. Don't blame Dame for his success.

That said, I'm not firmly in the "keep Dame" camp. The thought of rebuilding around Scoot/Sharpe is tantalizing, to say the least. Just be careful what you wish for.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pezsez1 »

I have no idea where your 20 year timeline comes from, but you are totally off.
It's actually more like 16 years (on average) between the Blazers peaking as actual title contenders, but 20 years as a ballpark in a forum convo is close enough.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by dd10snoop28 »

pudgejeff wrote:
dd10snoop28 wrote:Being a 5-10 seed is not the same as competing for a championship. Throughout Lillard's career, I can say with confidence that I have never considered any of the his non-Aldridge teams to be a legitimate title contender, and I think most non-PDX experts would agree with that.

Whenever the Lillard-led blazers faced a true contender the results were:

GSW: 4-0
GSW: 4-0
LAL: 4-1
DEN: 4-2 (Denver w/o Murray)

Why waste 3 more years of above-average basketball teams when you can tank and trade Lillard for value, and start accumulating talent through the high draft picks?

People don't realize that sucking the NBA can make you a contender within just a few years (i.e. see every contending team in the NBA).
It is really rough, Golden State was unreasonably good during the best teams in Dame's career, not to say I think anyone of them were really "contender" worthy but they didn't really have a chance either way. I'm not even sure the LA/Dame teams were true contenders either but were the closest if you had to pick some. A team like Portland is going to have to get very lucky in the draft ala Denver, plus be patient in trades waiting for a team that is selling cheap and getting a steal instead of overpaying or even paying market value. I think that could have happened over the last 3-4 years but it just didn't, and they are in a really rough spot now where they're probably gonna be the one's selling on the cheap. My guess is if they trade Dame, both Sharpe and Scoot will move on to another team before Portland can put it together and they end up in a cycle of overpaying for some free agents again. But you can't not take the shot just cause it "might" or even "probably" will end up like that.
All you need to do is look around the league. Almost every team that is a competitor has built through the draft. So to say that Portland must get "very lucky" doesn't make sense since it applies to every single team equally. If by "lucky", you mean having good scouts and talent evaluators then that's something else.

Additionally, the way that contracts are set up makes it so that the teams that draft you can make you a "restricted FA" which means they can match any offer ones you hit the market off your rookie contract is over. Take a look at the list below and you will see that real competitors build through the draft, and retain their players due to bird rights. The whole theory about losing players after their rookie contract is largely debunked. It isn't until the 3rd contract that you start losing players in FA.

Celtics - Brown/Tatum
Denver - Jokic/Murray
Warrors - Steph/Dray/Klay
Kings - Fox
Bucks - Giannis/Middleton
76ers - Embiid
Grizzlies - Ja Morant/JJJ

I'm not even quite sure how there is any justifiable argument for keeping Dame other than teams giving terrible offers. Depending on the team, I would take 2-3 first round picks for him at this point.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by droop10 »

Looks like there are a lot of assumptions that Scoot will be available at 3. I think the Hornets end up taking him and figuring it out with LaMelo. Quite frankly, LaMelo isn’t good enough to warrant not drafting Scoot. Also, Miller has his set of off court baggage, plus there are rumors that he had some kind of illness after the season and lost a lot of weight. Long story short, I think Miller is going to test poorly, leaving no slam dunk picks at 3. If drafting Miller, they might as well keep Lillard for the time being and can reevaluate midseason if the season is going down the drain. I’m not sure it’s likely they get In on Jaylen Brown, but if somehow they can work out something with the 3 pick to trade for him, it may be better long-term than whatever option is at 3.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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droop10 wrote:Looks like there are a lot of assumptions that Scoot will be available at 3. I think the Hornets end up taking him and figuring it out with LaMelo. Quite frankly, LaMelo isn’t good enough to warrant not drafting Scoot. Also, Miller has his set of off court baggage, plus there are rumors that he had some kind of illness after the season and lost a lot of weight. Long story short, I think Miller is going to test poorly, leaving no slam dunk picks at 3. If drafting Miller, they might as well keep Lillard for the time being and can reevaluate midseason if the season is going down the drain. I’m not sure it’s likely they get In on Jaylen Brown, but if somehow they can work out something with the 3 pick to trade for him, it may be better long-term than whatever option is at 3.
I think trading away #3 and a combo of Ant + Keon for Jaylen Brown is just bad all around. There might be a Josh Hart trade exception that could be used in place of Keon I think but the larger point remains.

A- you've just made your Cap problem even worse by reducing your players and increasing your Cap, thus making it harder to sign FAs.

B-you now have to sign Brown to a Max contract or else you just sent Ant, #3 and Keon for a 1 year rental.

C-I think this one move would also hard-cap the team, essentially forcing them to have to sign Jermai Grant to a big deal or else lose him for nothing. So your team now is essentially Dame-Brown-Sharpe-Grant-Nurk with a bench of Little, Walker and Watford, the team is over the Luxury Cap and you can only make small moves like MLE's for Vets but they'll still cost an exorbitant amount being over the cap. You have 0 backup guards and Nas Little is the most established of the 2nd unit players.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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Age 23 NBA Season

Ant: 35 Minutes - 21.1 PPG - 2.6 Reb - 4.1 Ast - 2.1 TO - .377% 3P - .447 FG%
Dame: 35.8 Minutes - 20.7 PPG - 3.1 Reb - 5.6 Ast - 2.4 TO - .394% 3P - .424 FG%

Current Cost next 3 years
Ant: 24M - 25.9M - 27.7M
Dame: 45.6M - 48.7M - 58.5M
Net - 21.6M - 22.8M - 30.8M (~25M/year)

Personally, I think it will be far easier to make Portland a complete roster that can actually compete if they rebuild a Simons-Sharpe backcourt and have extra cap space and picks. IF they re-sign Grant its to play SF and not PF since he's a liability on the glass so in a scenario where Scoot goes #2 and Miller #3, I think Grant would be traded before the deadline. I also wouldn't rule out Amen Thompson at #3 either and going with a taller PG who can guard 1-3. It would keep the offense balanced since Ant can play off-ball at the 2 and allow them to hide him on the weakest 1-3 defensively.

The backcourt would get the defensive balance it needs while continuing to have flame-throwers in Ant/Sharpe and while it would be lacking in the front court at PF, it would now have the cap space and picks to be able to shore up that spot. That strikes me as a team that has a very real chance of making the playoffs in year 1 Post-Dame.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by squintsdd »

Duck07 wrote:Age 23 NBA Season

Ant: 35 Minutes - 21.1 PPG - 2.6 Reb - 4.1 Ast - 2.1 TO - .377% 3P - .447 FG%
Dame: 35.8 Minutes - 20.7 PPG - 3.1 Reb - 5.6 Ast - 2.4 TO - .394% 3P - .424 FG%

Current Cost next 3 years
Ant: 24M - 25.9M - 27.7M
Dame: 45.6M - 48.7M - 58.5M
Net - 21.6M - 22.8M - 30.8M (~25M/year)

Personally, I think it will be far easier to make Portland a complete roster that can actually compete if they rebuild a Simons-Sharpe backcourt and have extra cap space and picks. IF they re-sign Grant its to play SF and not PF since he's a liability on the glass so in a scenario where Scoot goes #2 and Miller #3, I think Grant would be traded before the deadline. I also wouldn't rule out Amen Thompson at #3 either and going with a taller PG who can guard 1-3. It would keep the offense balanced since Ant can play off-ball at the 2 and allow them to hide him on the weakest 1-3 defensively.

The backcourt would get the defensive balance it needs while continuing to have flame-throwers in Ant/Sharpe and while it would be lacking in the front court at PF, it would now have the cap space and picks to be able to shore up that spot. That strikes me as a team that has a very real chance of making the playoffs in year 1 Post-Dame.
The problem I have with Simons is that he's not as consistent as Lillard, and his defense is atrocious. Anyone complaining about Lillard's defense needs to watch Simons. The guy can't guard a parked car. If we're going to trade the pick then Simons needs to go with it
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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squintsdd wrote:
The problem I have with Simons is that he's not as consistent as Lillard, and his defense is atrocious. Anyone complaining about Lillard's defense needs to watch Simons. The guy can't guard a parked car. If we're going to trade the pick then Simons needs to go with it
The last thing I'm advocating is trading away #3. #3+Ant for 1 player is a net loss for a team that lacks a balanced starting unit and has like 2 decent subs.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pezsez1 »

Those Lillard/Ant stats don't tell the full story. Ant is open for many of his shots because he's on the floor with Dame. He's also received a ton of his minutes when the Blazers are deliberately tanking and he's playing in glorified garbage time.

Not saying Ant is bad -- he is really good offensively, when he's clicking -- but he's not consistent and he definitely has issues on defense. He also isn't a natural facilitator and really belongs at SG, which is Sharpe's role.

Trading Ant is the one thing that should happen this season regardless of what happens with Dame or Pick 3.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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pezsez1 wrote:Those Lillard/Ant stats don't tell the full story. Ant is open for many of his shots because he's on the floor with Dame. He's also received a ton of his minutes when the Blazers are deliberately tanking and he's playing in glorified garbage time.

Not saying Ant is bad -- he is really good offensively, when he's clicking -- but he's not consistent and he definitely has issues on defense. He also isn't a natural facilitator and really belongs at SG, which is Sharpe's role.

Trading Ant is the one thing that should happen this season regardless of what happens with Dame or Pick 3.
Sure they don't. Like how Ant was still having to play 2nd fiddle to Dame the first half of the season whereas Dame was the primary option at the same age yet Ant was still able to average more.

Dame had Aldridge that year down low as I recall as well. Ant had flip shot Nurk.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

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Sure they don't. Like how Ant was still having to play 2nd fiddle to Dame the first half of the season whereas Dame was the primary option at the same age yet Ant was still able to average more.
And also that Dame missed several games due to injury last season before the All Star break and that he was the team's chief facilitator, whereas Ant was starting at shooting guard.

You're not honestly trying to say that Ant is a better player/scorer than Dame was at his age, right? That would be silly.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by squintsdd »

pezsez1 wrote:
Sure they don't. Like how Ant was still having to play 2nd fiddle to Dame the first half of the season whereas Dame was the primary option at the same age yet Ant was still able to average more.
And also that Dame missed several games due to injury last season before the All Star break and that he was the team's chief facilitator, whereas Ant was starting at shooting guard.

You're not honestly trying to say that Ant is a better player/scorer than Dame was at his age, right? That would be silly.
I'm starting to think that it's Ant himself
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by pudgejeff »

Duck07 wrote:
squintsdd wrote:
The problem I have with Simons is that he's not as consistent as Lillard, and his defense is atrocious. Anyone complaining about Lillard's defense needs to watch Simons. The guy can't guard a parked car. If we're going to trade the pick then Simons needs to go with it
The last thing I'm advocating is trading away #3. #3+Ant for 1 player is a net loss for a team that lacks a balanced starting unit and has like 2 decent subs.
If you're trading Ant, it has to be Ant and the 20's pick for something, def agreed it can't be Ant and the #3 unless you somehow are fleecing someone.
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Re: Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

Post by Duck07 »

pezsez1 wrote:
Sure they don't. Like how Ant was still having to play 2nd fiddle to Dame the first half of the season whereas Dame was the primary option at the same age yet Ant was still able to average more.
And also that Dame missed several games due to injury last season before the All Star break and that he was the team's chief facilitator, whereas Ant was starting at shooting guard.

You're not honestly trying to say that Ant is a better player/scorer than Dame was at his age, right? That would be silly.
Frankly for the purpose of building a Championship Roster, Ant being a 2 and Dame a 1 is largely irrelevant when their primary skill-set is 3P shooting and they both suck at Defense. It also means he's easier to pair next to the currently expected #3 pick in Scoot Henderson along with Sharpe at the 3 and he's not coming off back to back years with an injury.

Do I think Ant is better at 23 than Dame at 23? No I don't think Ant is a better pure player than Dame straight up. I do however think that Ant plus the return package in a Dame trade will be far more effective in the short and long-term than Dame plus the return package for Ant either in the short or long-term.

I'm not opposed to trading Ant and trying to win one for the gipper, I just see the odds of that success being far lower by trying to build a 1 to 2 year title window than building one that has a chance of 8+ years of success.
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