Blazers 2022-2023 Thread

[Phalanx]

I have no idea where your 20 year timeline comes from, but you are totally off.

It's actually more like 16 years (on average) between the Blazers peaking as actual title contenders, but 20 years as a ballpark in a forum convo is close enough.

How long it has been since contention has ZERO to do with evaluating the future success of a rebuild sans Lillard.

[pezsez1]

How long it has been since contention has ZERO to do with evaluating the future success of a rebuild sans Lillard.

Sure it does. There's a pretty clear trend about what happens when teams truly blow it all up and start over again. Rebuilding around two or three unknown players has tremendous (and, lately, under-appreciated) risk. You're likely looking at a long, gradual rebuild with little (or no) shot at a championship before blowing it all up again -- especially as a small-market team.

[Phalanx]

Frankly for the purpose of building a Championship Roster, Ant being a 2 and Dame a 1 is largely irrelevant when their primary skill-set is 3P shooting and they both suck at Defense. It also means he's easier to pair next to the currently expected #3 pick in Scoot Henderson along with Sharpe at the 3 and he's not coming off back to back years with an injury.

Do I think Ant is better at 23 than Dame at 23? No I don't think Ant is a better pure player than Dame straight up. I do however think that Ant plus the return package in a Dame trade will be far more effective in the short and long-term than Dame plus the return package for Ant either in the short or long-term.

I'm not opposed to trading Ant and trying to win one for the gipper, I just see the odds of that success being far lower by trying to build a 1 to 2 year title window than building one that has a chance of 8+ years of success.

I know that was hard to word, but it's completely true. I don't think Lillard is a bad player, I just think he sucks way too much of the team's resources - keeping him means paying him a ridiculously high salary, plus trading away draft picks for temp players and totally hollowing out the team's depth and future. Trading him means the team can afford two players to replace, and keep not only their own draft picks, but whatever comes back for Lillard. A new generation can start learning to play together, with Ant, Sharpe and whoever they get at #3 leading the way.

In terms of winning, it's all about how much production a team gets per dollar spent, and Lillard simply isn't the most efficient option in that regard. The reason they keep him is that he puts butts in the seats. Over on blazers edge it's really sad to read all the fans talking about how winning doesn't matter, only keeping Dame matters. Well, I would rather win than keep Lillard, and I am convinced that trading him would lead to more wins within a season or two. Keeping him means sub-par seasons until he squeezes the last dollar out of the team and then rides off into the sunset.

[Phalanx]

How long it has been since contention has ZERO to do with evaluating the future success of a rebuild sans Lillard.

Sure it does. There's a pretty clear trend about what happens when teams truly blow it all up and start over again. Rebuilding around two or three unknown players has tremendous (and, lately, under-appreciated) risk. You're likely looking at a long, gradual rebuild with little (or no) shot at a championship before blowing it all up again -- especially as a small-market team.

No...it actually doesn't. The last time the Blazers were in contention is completely unrelated to how a rebuild would go, and no rebuild takes 20 years. It's actually ridiculous to suggest. How many players even play 20 years? We would know if the rebuild was successful in a few seasons, not 20. Either Ant, Sharpe, #3, #23, and whoever comes back for Lillard/ whoever they sign with his cap space are a successful unit, or they aren't. It doesn't take 20 years to find out. There is no 'clear trend' either. Some teams rebuild quickly and succeed, and some never do. The fact that half the teams in the NBA have been to the Finals in the last 20 years is a pretty clear indicator that it is possible though. Meanwhile, the Blazers have never sniffed the Finals in Lillard's entire money-grabbing career.

[alxtw]

I think the root of the problem is the owner does not want to pay for a quality team. To be a contender you basically have to be in the top 10 highest payroll teams in the NBA. (Miami is an outlier this year)

Lillard does take up a great proportion of the team's financial resources. But that's because our team's payroll is in the bottom half of that of the NBA.

Regardless if we trade or don't trade dame, ant, or the third draft pick. We are not competing for a title if the ownership isn't committed to infusing more funds into the payroll each year.

[dthomas=ddixon]

As someone who follows the blazers from a distance this has been a fun discussion to follow.

Die-hard blazer fans are notorious for overvaluing their current players and I think that’s a lot of what’s happening here. Lillard plus whatever player(s) you get with #3, Ant, and future picks just puts the team solidly in NBA purgatory, and kicks the rebuild can down the road. This roster sucks and adding one more star doesn’t guarantee anything other than getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs and drafting outside the lottery.

A rebuild is inevitable and the team is fortunate to have Sharpe and #3. Rebuilding NOW became the obvious move the second they lucked into that 3rd pick, IMO. It’s honestly hard to wrap my head around blazer fans willingly wanting throw that pick away just to sign up for more years of NBA purgatory.

[bellsduck]

Other players recognize this too. Dame has not had any luck recruiting players to come play with him in Portland. I think partially because they realize he has his own limitations as a player, but also that the team is more than one more star away from competing. Keeping Dame is not the answer.

[Phalanx]

As someone who follows the blazers from a distance this has been a fun discussion to follow.

Die-hard blazer fans are notorious for overvaluing their current players and I think that’s a lot of what’s happening here. Lillard plus whatever player(s) you get with #3, Ant, and future picks just puts the team solidly in NBA purgatory, and kicks the rebuild can down the road. This roster sucks and adding one more star doesn’t guarantee anything other than getting bounced in the first round of the playoffs and drafting outside the lottery.

A rebuild is inevitable and the team is fortunate to have Sharpe and #3. Rebuilding NOW became the obvious move the second they lucked into that 3rd pick, IMO. It’s honestly hard to wrap my head around blazer fans willingly wanting throw that pick away just to sign up for more years of NBA purgatory.

I'm not sure they are actually even Blazer fans at this point, they have become Lillard fans, and he wants that pick traded, so they follow suit.

[pezsez1]

A rebuild is inevitable and the team is fortunate to have Sharpe and #3. Rebuilding NOW became the obvious move the second they lucked into that 3rd pick, IMO. It’s honestly hard to wrap my head around blazer fans willingly wanting throw that pick away just to sign up for more years of NBA purgatory.

I could say the same about fans who want to throw away the best player in franchise history. Teams that trade away their stars and rebuild almost always end up in NBA purgatory for years.

That's what many people don't seem to want to accept. NBA purgatory is the likely outcome of whatever happens with Dame or Pick 3. We can go for it now or go for it later, with "later" either coming in three or four years or possibly in 10-15 years from now if this hypothetical upcoming rebuild flames out.

[Phalanx]

Pez keeps threatening NBA purgatory without Dame as if we weren't already there for several years running WITH Dame. THere really isn't a lot to lose at this point.

P.S. Lillard isn't the best player in franchise history. It's Drexler.

[dd10snoop28]

A rebuild is inevitable and the team is fortunate to have Sharpe and #3. Rebuilding NOW became the obvious move the second they lucked into that 3rd pick, IMO. It’s honestly hard to wrap my head around blazer fans willingly wanting throw that pick away just to sign up for more years of NBA purgatory.

I could say the same about fans who want to throw away the best player in franchise history. Teams that trade away their stars and rebuild almost always end up in NBA purgatory for years.

That's what many people don't seem to want to accept. NBA purgatory is the likely outcome of whatever happens with Dame or Pick 3. We can go for it now or go for it later, with "later" either coming in three or four years or possibly in 10-15 years from now if this hypothetical upcoming rebuild flames out.

There is no such thing as "NBA purgatory". Doesn't exist. False narrative. If you suck, you get a top prospect. Every top team in the NBA right now was built through the draft. This isn't MLB where you build teams through FA and having tons of money.

The only "purgatory" that exists if you have terrible staff that (1) can't draft, (2) can't develop, and (3) can't put together a properly-constructed roster.

These 10, 15, 20 years numbers are so kooky. Where do they come from? All you need is a couple of top picks in the draft to build a good team.

Brandon Roy - 7th pick
LMA - 5th pick

See? All it took was (1) sucking, and (2) drafting 2 good players to start building a contender. 20 years is such an arbitrary and nonsensical number.

[Duck07]

That's what many people don't seem to want to accept. NBA purgatory is the likely outcome of whatever happens with Dame or Pick 3. We can go for it now or go for it later, with "later" either coming in three or four years or possibly in 10-15 years from now if this hypothetical upcoming rebuild flames out.

I highly disagree with this and I think adding that 10-15 year frame is just hyperbolic. Had the Blazers drafted Giannis over CJ and taken Bam over Zach Collins, the Blazers are likely the NBA's most dominant team. The draft is the most likely path to long-term contention for Portland.

Simons and Grant are two 20pt scorers along with Sharpe and #3 rounding into form while not having to carry the team early on; that's a lot of potential to score on Offense on a nightly basis before you've even added the Lillard Trade Return to the fold, which will require at least 1 big contract and 1-2 others to balance the trade in addition to current/future picks.

Is that a 2024 Top 4 Western Conference team - probably not but its absolutely a Playoff team even in the West.
Does it have the look of a future Top 4 Western Conference team? I'd sure think so with a good balance of youth and affordable and expiring contracts.

[dthomas=ddixon]

A rebuild is inevitable and the team is fortunate to have Sharpe and #3. Rebuilding NOW became the obvious move the second they lucked into that 3rd pick, IMO. It’s honestly hard to wrap my head around blazer fans willingly wanting throw that pick away just to sign up for more years of NBA purgatory.

I could say the same about fans who want to throw away the best player in franchise history. Teams that trade away their stars and rebuild almost always end up in NBA purgatory for years.

That's what many people don't seem to want to accept. NBA purgatory is the likely outcome of whatever happens with Dame or Pick 3. We can go for it now or go for it later, with "later" either coming in three or four years or possibly in 10-15 years from now if this hypothetical upcoming rebuild flames out.

Using the “best player in franchise history” label does nothing for your argument because that hasn’t produced anything of substance for the franchise, and is unlikely to do so going forward because of his contract.

As Phalanx said, the blazers are already in purgatory, and aren’t getting out by keeping Lillard. Starting the rebuild at least gives the franchise a chance at breaking out of that cycle. Drafting well gives the team a great shot at building a contender in the west, and having the #3 pick is a great start.

[droop10]

Other players recognize this too. Dame has not had any luck recruiting players to come play with him in Portland. I think partially because they realize he has his own limitations as a player, but also that the team is more than one more star away from competing. Keeping Dame is not the answer.

I think a big piece of it is that free agents just aren't interested in Portland. It's never going to be a free agent destination, so it's a lot like Sacramento in that way. They aren't going to be able to attract top free agents, so they have to gamble and hope draft picks work out and those guys want to stay. I think that's been a big piece of the franchise being tied to Lillard. There just aren't many stars that are going to be willing to stick around.

[greenyellow]

Other players recognize this too. Dame has not had any luck recruiting players to come play with him in Portland. I think partially because they realize he has his own limitations as a player, but also that the team is more than one more star away from competing. Keeping Dame is not the answer.

I think a big piece of it is that free agents just aren't interested in Portland. It's never going to be a free agent destination, so it's a lot like Sacramento in that way. They aren't going to be able to attract top free agents, so they have to gamble and hope draft picks work out and those guys want to stay. I think that's been a big piece of the franchise being tied to Lillard. There just aren't many stars that are going to be willing to stick around.

Part of the problem for much of Dame's time in Portland was he had Olshey as GM, who prioritized being good enough to make the playoffs every year instead of taking big swings to actually contend.