Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

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Duck07
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Duck07 »

alxtw wrote:I worry that in 5-10 years time, the B1G and SEC will be able to offer coaches, position coaches, and analysts and GAs 2-3x that of what the PAC teams can match.

The best at each coaching position would be attracted to those numbers and only use the PAC as a stepping stone to get promoted back into those conferences. (Already kind of feels like that)
That will create their own monstrous problems when they fire a Coach and owe him 80M of a 160M deal.

Or a team wants to poach a staffer and it will cost them 10M.

Raising the Coaching Salary floor and Support Staff floor is not something AD's are going to go rush to do. It will happen, but it will create its own problems. These aren't people known for equitable distributions of wealth and the sheer money being discussed is likely to create a Collective Bargaining system for the Athletes which would in fact keep the NCAA as an entity relevant.

March Madness has been a hit this year - soon the Federal Courts will demand that schools either pay the students as employees or they will have to put all that TV money into a collective pool to be shared in a manner similar to the Pro Sports Leagues and their revenue sharing. In essence the B1G and SEC are no different than the AFC North or the NFC South when the courts look at it as a whole.

It's going to be a wild time but I don't think we're in some desperate situation, especially as it relates to money.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by StevensTechU »

Duck07 wrote:
alxtw wrote:I worry that in 5-10 years time, the B1G and SEC will be able to offer coaches, position coaches, and analysts and GAs 2-3x that of what the PAC teams can match.

The best at each coaching position would be attracted to those numbers and only use the PAC as a stepping stone to get promoted back into those conferences. (Already kind of feels like that)
That will create their own monstrous problems when they fire a Coach and owe him 80M of a 160M deal.

Or a team wants to poach a staffer and it will cost them 10M.

Raising the Coaching Salary floor and Support Staff floor is not something AD's are going to go rush to do. It will happen, but it will create its own problems. These aren't people known for equitable distributions of wealth and the sheer money being discussed is likely to create a Collective Bargaining system for the Athletes which would in fact keep the NCAA as an entity relevant.

March Madness has been a hit this year - soon the Federal Courts will demand that schools either pay the students as employees or they will have to put all that TV money into a collective pool to be shared in a manner similar to the Pro Sports Leagues and their revenue sharing. In essence the B1G and SEC are no different than the AFC North or the NFC South when the courts look at it as a whole.

It's going to be a wild time but I don't think we're in some desperate situation, especially as it relates to money.
It's already happening. ADs are already signing contracts (Matt Rhule) based on projected future revenue. And to the point of "more money, more problems," that's like arguing that you'd rather be the Mountain West than Pac because the financial ties are a negative.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Duck07 »

StevensTechU wrote: It's already happening. ADs are already signing contracts (Matt Rhule) based on projected future revenue. And to the point of "more money, more problems," that's like arguing that you'd rather be the Mountain West than Pac because the financial ties are a negative.
We'll see if Mel Tucker coaches out his contract or if they keep getting more massive. I tend to think the rubber-band is going to snap soon whether its driven entirely by the courts or not.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by wepto »

I am a little confused by this thread. There were a number of rumors that the reason that the Pac-12 hasn't signed a tv deal is that UO and UW aren't willing to sign a grant of rights that locks them into a deal. Then there was another rumor that UO and UW think they are getting into the B1G and that they currently aren't willing to agree to any of the deals that have been offered to the Pac-12.

Now I get that the consensus on this board is that the UO AD runs a tight ship and that it is wise to be skeptical of leaks. But in this case, at the very minimum, the UW AD, the B1G conference leadership and every single B1G AD knows what is happening behind the scenes in terms of UO-UW possibly being admitted to the B1G. So, I really don't think it is possible to contain leaks in this case.

I am not trying to say that Oregon is a lock for the B1G. But there are indications out there that indicate it could be happening sooner rather than later. I don't think we find out until the all the B1G schools have presidents again and the B1G hires a commissioner.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by StevensTechU »

The fact that the Arizona president came out so confident about that new TV deal has me thinking Oregon isn't going anywhere.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by wepto »

StevensTechU wrote:The fact that the Arizona president came out so confident about that new TV deal has me thinking Oregon isn't going anywhere.
Don't the Pac-12 presidents have to project confidence? It hurts their negotiating position if TV partners think UO-UW are about to leave. The positive comments on the impending Pac-12 deal have all been from the smaller schools, Zona, Utah and OSU in particular. Utah's president flat out said that they think they'd lose money on the academic side if they moved to the Big12. The small schools are the ones that need the Pac-12 to survive. It makes sense for them to put out optimistic statements / leaks.

I might be bored and overthinking this though.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Duck07 »

If the TV deal is for three years it means we're gone. If it's long term we're staying. That's how I see this right now.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by duck92 »

The Big !0 deal ends in 2030, that's when the Pac 12's deal will end IMO. I still think UCLA and USC will evaluate what conference to be in, in 2030. Can't wait to see what happens then. My prediction is they rejoin the Pac 12. Just because the money is better now, doesn't mean it will be that way in 6 years.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by pezsez1 »

Can't wait to see what happens then. My prediction is they rejoin the Pac 12. Just because the money is better now, doesn't mean it will be that way in 6 years.
While I think it's more likely the Big 10 would expand, this is definitely food for thought and who knows what might happen, especially since the changes to the CFP happened after both LA schools committed to moving to a tougher, more crowded conference.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by UofDuck »

Why do people follow the Big 10 is the tougher conference narrative?

Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
Nebraska
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Iowa
Mich State

There are really only three perineally power programs:
tOSU
MICH (only the last few years)
PSU (kind of)

But I’d put the current PAC 12 teams up against the B1G all day.

Oregon, UW, USC could easily hold their own against the B1G.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by pezsez1 »

I'd put last season's Pac-12 against last season's Big 10, sure... and this season's, too. And you're forgetting about Utah, our actual conference champion.

For the sake of this thread, though, I feel like we're discussing this in terms of "conference with tougher path to the CFP." That's definitely the Big-10 simply because of Ohio State.

Otherwise, fully agree. On an overall weekly basis the Pac is pretty much comparable.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by alxtw »

UofDuck wrote:Why do people follow the Big 10 is the tougher conference narrative?

Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
Nebraska
Indiana
Rutgers
Maryland
Iowa
Mich State

There are really only three perineally power programs:
tOSU
MICH (only the last few years)


PSU (kind of)

But I’d put the current PAC 12 teams up against the B1G all day.

Oregon, UW, USC could easily hold their own against the B1G.
Agree. I feel only Ohio State would have a chance to beat the top 3 PAC 12 teams every year and they would have a difficult time beating all three teams every year.

However, the media and rankings love to hype up Michigan, PSU and Nebraska. In the PAC, only USC receives a similar treatment.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Duck07 »

There was a funny picture about the B1G expanding to 20 and going with 4 pods of 5 teams.

The NW 5 of Oregon, UW, Stanford, USC and UCLA was easily the toughest "pod."

It hasn't been brought up here largely because the Networks involved are much bigger, but Regional Sports Networks like Bally Sports have started missing their payments to some teams. The Blazers are dealing with this problem too and I wonder how much this will continue in the future as well as have an effect on those future payments.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Everythingsducky »

Duck07 wrote:There was a funny picture about the B1G expanding to 20 and going with 4 pods of 5 teams.

The NW 5 of Oregon, UW, Stanford, USC and UCLA was easily the toughest "pod."

It hasn't been brought up here largely because the Networks involved are much bigger, but Regional Sports Networks like Bally Sports have started missing their payments to some teams. The Blazers are dealing with this problem too and I wonder how much this will continue in the future as well as have an effect on those future payments.
Would be interesting if the ‘funny picture’ pod of 5 original PAC 12 teams would have to duke it out amongst themselves to even make the BIG championship game. It would easily be the best pod of the conference, and possibly eliminate many worthy teams. Seems ruthlessly brutal.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by OregonFan4Life »

Maybe this is an impossible/stupid idea and I’m just a dumb idiot (probably am but for other reasons) but I kinda wonder if Kliavkoff should try to play both sides, cable and streaming. There’s been some fascinating discussion about cable vs streaming and I think both sides may be right.

IMO Kliavkoff should go after two contracts if possible, a safe one with ESPN, will bring in safe money, not as much as the B1G or SEC, but it’s something to come in and be safe. However then go after a second contract with YouTube TV and/or Amazon. I know NFL TNF on Amazon didn’t quite perform as well as expected, but the NFL is now going on YouTube TV I believe and if old men start to figure out how to use streaming and they can start to see that they can save money, then we could see the NFL viewership start to transition to streaming from cable. If the NFL viewership moves to streaming it’s only a matter of time until college football viewership does too.

On top of that Kliavkoff can get together with Prime and his casino buddies and market the hell out of this. Create almost hard knocks series showing some behind the scenes stuff with different PAC-10 schools, obviously a lot of us don’t want the drama but if it brings in views/money for Oregon it might be worth it. Maybe do something similar with the Nickelodeon NFL game. And if possible, see if there’s some betting partnership that can happen, I know that’s tricky with gambling laws in various states, but is it possible that if you are in a state that allows betting on college football, that while watching a game you can get notifications on your tv and phone of random prop bets you can place during the game? Just some ideas.

I’m sure this probably couldn’t happen as someone like ESPN would want exclusive rights, just wasn’t sure if there was a way to take advantage of both. Have it essentially be like you can watch the normal broadcasting on ESPN or choose the interactive version with live gambling and other features on YouTube TV.
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