NDSU/OREGON 2020

[OregonFan4Life]

Call me crazy but I'm a little worried about this game now that spring practice has been cancelled. With the new OC Oregon really needed the practice probably more than NDSU does, who will continue to do things like normal. I still think Oregon will win, my previous prediction was 31-13, now I'm thinking 24-14, it'll feel like one of those games that both fanbases are disappointed with their team's performance.

[Alan]

Call me crazy but I'm a little worried about this game now that spring practice has been cancelled. With the new OC Oregon really needed the practice probably more than NDSU does, who will continue to do things like normal. I still think Oregon will win, my previous prediction was 31-13, now I'm thinking 24-14, it'll feel like one of those games that both fanbases are disappointed with their team's performance.

I am hoping by summer we have a handle on this and the schools will be allowed to complete their allotted number of spring practices. Also imthinkmtheynshould give any senior who was going to participate in a post season playoff or tournament which was canceled the option to return another year, without a loss of scholarships to the school. I know out of place, I feel very bad for the seniors who worked so hard for four or five years and reached their goal and......

[FlDuckFan]

I was a fan of NDSU until these posts started. Nothing like turning away others than over confident trollish fans. This board has seen many fans from big non conference opponents and 9 times out of 10 everyone gets along swimmingly. When Bud came along he was confident LSU was going to win, his confidence didn't upset anyone and he's become a valuable member on this board, with many members rooting for LSU because of him. This board can be an echo chamber at times but has taken outsiders well, unfortunately it seems many NDSU trolls/fans are tone deaf . It's one thing to come in and say " I think my Bison could give the Ducks a run for their money and the game may be closer than many might think" , it's a completely different thing coming in and saying the defeat of Iowa in 1886 and how the men's basketball team prove anything. While many teams have these types of fans it's a shame for NDSU athletics to have some here as representatives of their fan base.

Seriously? You're letting one or two "bad" eggs spoil your perception of an entire program? When you admit that 9 out of 10 posters from other teams are fine? Implying that all teams have those one or two annoying posters? I guess that's your prerogative.

I do think it's funny you respond to my post about how you think we're tone deaf and over confident, and yet my post was the type that you said that you respect.


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I admit I thought I tagged a different post, and yeah when I'm just a casual fan of a team two trolls can easily sway me to root against a team I honestly don't care about. I do apologize for my error though.

[JBB]

Call me crazy but I'm a little worried about this game now that spring practice has been cancelled. With the new OC Oregon really needed the practice probably more than NDSU does, who will continue to do things like normal. I still think Oregon will win, my previous prediction was 31-13, now I'm thinking 24-14, it'll feel like one of those games that both fanbases are disappointed with their team's performance.

The bight side is everybody's spring practice is cancelled. There is a lot of talk about this game being cancelled if not the season. I have no idea what might happen. I dont think Oregon is going to buy it out though and a cancellation would probably trigger some kind of act of God clause.

[JBB]

Call me crazy but I'm a little worried about this game now that spring practice has been cancelled. With the new OC Oregon really needed the practice probably more than NDSU does, who will continue to do things like normal. I still think Oregon will win, my previous prediction was 31-13, now I'm thinking 24-14, it'll feel like one of those games that both fanbases are disappointed with their team's performance.

I am hoping by summer we have a handle on this and the schools will be allowed to complete their allotted number of spring practices. Also imthinkmtheynshould give any senior who was going to participate in a post season playoff or tournament which was canceled the option to return another year, without a loss of scholarships to the school. I know out of place, I feel very bad for the seniors who worked so hard for four or five years and reached their goal and......

good post and I certainly agree.

[JBB]

Polishing things up on the GAM and discovered there were only 49,000+ at the Montana game last year. Nice cozy place to play. There were well over 60,000 at the Gopher and Hawkeye BISON games and 61,000 at Iowa State. I think we would have to go back to the Chippewas or Colorado State for an FBS game around or under the 50,000 mark.

For a comparison. If NDSU had Montanas statistics they earned against the Ducks last year the score would have been Ducks 35 BISON 18. Actual score was Ducks 35 Montana 3. Against Montana the Ducks put up 247 yds on the ground and 313 yds passing. That's unlikely against North Dakota State. On average North Dakota State gave up 136 on the ground and 138 in the air. We are going to run a monte-carlo with the stats showing the most production on offense and defense for both teams during last years season to check the results. It will take a day or two but should be revealing.

[thebootfitter]

Polishing things up on the GAM and discovered there were only 49,000+ at the Montana game last year. Nice cozy place to play. There were well over 60,000 at the Gopher and Hawkeye BISON games and 61,000 at Iowa State. I think we would have to go back to the Chippewas or Colorado State for an FBS game around or under the 50,000 mark.

For a comparison. If NDSU had Montanas statistics they earned against the Ducks last year the score would have been Ducks 35 BISON 18. Actual score was Ducks 35 Montana 3. Against Montana the Ducks put up 247 yds on the ground and 313 yds passing. That's unlikely against North Dakota State. On average North Dakota State gave up 136 on the ground and 138 in the air. We are going to run a monte-carlo with the stats showing the most production on offense and defense for both teams during last years season to check the results. It will take a day or two but should be revealing.

JBB - What do you mean by this:
"If NDSU had Montanas statistics they earned against the Ducks last year the score would have been Ducks 35 BISON 18."

Can you offer a bit more explanation? The way it is written and without context, I am having trouble discerning what you mean.

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[JBB]

HI bootfitter,

The GAM (Game Analyzer Mechanism), through a series of proprietary equations, develops a teams offensive and defensive profiles based on total performance over a given period of time (game, series of games, season, etc). When a teams expected statistics for any game are applied to the profile the GAM will provide the score, spread and over/under.

I entered the Montana/Oregon statistics into each teams 2019 season profile giving us the score of Oregon 35.1355 NDSU 17.1694.

REALIZED YARDS:
Rushing: NDSU 8 Oregon 247
Passing: NDSU 234 Oregon 313

OPPONENTS REALIZED YDS:
Rushing: NDSU 247 Oregon 8
Passing: NDSU 313 Oregon 234

Based on each teams season performance and average game stats last year the GAM gives us this:

EXPECTED YARDS:
Rushing: NDSU 288 Oregon 175
Passing: NDSU 182 Oregon 258

OPPONENTS EXPECTED YDS:
Rushing: NDSU 136 Oregon 109
Passing: NDSU 139 Oregon 220

Forecasted score: NDSU BISON 29 Oregon Ducks 23. Spread is BISON -6, O/U 52.

Normally, for each weeks games, a teams average season performance is plugged into the profile. Adjustments to expected performance can be made to better represent what is expected to happen. Bison@Oregon is a game that will need some adjustment to the above base numbers.

Things to consider:

• level of competition
  loss of Jabril Cox
  team maturity

This has been a very reliable system over a long period of time. Last year the GAM guided us to over $2,000 in profits. We really cleaned up on the Minnesota, Iowa and Kansas State games the GAM predicted the Bison would win.

Back during the Minnesota games the "Las Vegas" line makers had no idea what was going on and both odds and juice were ridiculously favoring the Gophers for what amounted to a lot of free money. They have wised up a lot and are on average extremely good at what they do week in and week out. The BISON get respect from them even if others don't give it.

This game is a little different. I sense the Bison might not be as good as some of those early teams but they are very young. I also sense there is a feeling the Bison have no chance (Ducks could be the best team the Bison have faced). That might spread to those odds-makers making them a little careless, especially early on. This game may present unprecedented opportunities for this kind of activity.

We are a little nervous and very excited about what is about to unfold.

[JBB]

Here is a list of projected Bison offensive starters:

TE Noah Gindorf JR 6'-6" 266#
LT Dillon Radunz SR 6'-6" 301#
LG Nash Jensen JR 6'-4" 331#
C Karson Schoening SR 6'-5" 300#
RG Zach Kubas SR 6'-4" 298#
RT Cordell Volson SR 6'-6" 312#
TE Josh Babicz JR 6'-6" 252#
FB Hunter Luepke SO 6'-1" 246#

Of course Trey Lance will be under center. The backfield will rotate, more on that later maybe.

[karlhungis]

I'm sure the Bison will easily get that predicted 288 yards of rushing. Piece of cake....

[GoDucksTroll]

I'm sure the Bison will easily get that predicted 288 yards of rushing. Piece of cake....

My first thought as well seeing that. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss couldn’t get going, but this mighty juggernaut will.

[Duck07]

I'm sure the Bison will easily get that predicted 288 yards of rushing. Piece of cake....

My first thought as well seeing that. Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss couldn’t get going, but this mighty juggernaut will.

Badger Football isn't as top notch as Bison Football obv

[JBB]

How many yards do you think you can hold The BISON to? Wisconsin is good but not that good.

I do have to chuckle a bit though. Guy in Iowa bet me he would eat his hat if the BISON got 200 rushing. All American Desmond King and a couple others you know would shut them down. BISON got 234 and he never showed for supper.

Using the same methodology plugging in the Wisconsin stats to the BISON profile, the Ducks are in for a thumping:

NDSU BISON 23 Oregon Ducks 13.
Spread BISON -10; O/U 36

REALIZED YARDS:
Rushing: NDSU 136 Oregon 66
Passing: NDSU 186 Oregon 138

OPPONENTS REALIZED YDS:
Rushing: NDSU 66 Oregon 136
Passing: NDSU 138 Oregon 186

[JBB]

Now we are getting some where. We have established and early line between BISON -6 to -10 and the O/U between 36-52.

That is of course without adjustment and is not the call The GAM is going to make on game week. It is a very early line.

NDSU is better than Montana in every phase of the game at every position. 234 in the air, just like the Griz, indicates there is going to be a lot of passing. this might be one the Bison win through air. Looks to me the pass will set-up the run for the Thundering Herd.

[Duck07]

How many yards do you think you can hold The BISON to? Wisconsin is good but not that good.

You won't get over 175 rushing yards or 350 combined rush/pass. That you think you are actually better than Wisconsin while you go on and on about Montana really says a lot.