NDSU/OREGON 2020

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nogerO
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by nogerO »

JBB wrote:after this weeks games the GAM projection is NDSU -6 over the Ducks with O/U 44 and mythical score NDSU 25-19.

Ducks couldn't get the ground game going and gave up too many on the ground. The GAM has an offensive power ratio of 74 for NDSU and 110 for Oregon. Lower is better 100 is neutral.
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The defensive power ratio is 138.6 for NDSU and 98 for Oregon. 100 is neutral and higher is better.
So you're saying NDSU has a better defense than Oregon? I blew Blue Moon out my nose after reading that. I sure hope you are around when the Ducks remind you why your team is not in a big boy football conference...Ducks win this one by 35.
Last edited by nogerO on Mon Oct 28, 2019 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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lukeyrid13
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by lukeyrid13 »

I know it's all in fun and what not, but does your algorithm put in place level of opponent?

Or does a 3 point win by NDSU against Northern Iowa equal a 3 point win against Georgia?
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by buckmarkduck »

How is there 4 pages on a game that won't sell out next year?
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GoDucksTroll
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

I welcome our guest, and I think it’s cool we’re willing to play an FCS team that’s better than half the G-5.

I don’t have an algorithm, but I’m thinking 49-10 Oregon.
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NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by whosyourwally »

I mean Oregon has onlybeen better than half the G-5 for about 2/3 of a season. I’m not that confident next year’s team, with all the losses on offense and an inconsistent offensive scheme, are going to have their way with a very good FCS team.


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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by buckmarkduck »

whosyourwally wrote:I mean Oregon has onlybeen better than half the G-5 for about 2/3 of a season. I’m not that confident next year’s team, with all the losses on offense and an inconsistent offensive scheme, are going to have their way with a very good FCS team.


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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

I suspect that this game will be closer than a lot of Oregon homers are thinking. There's no doubt that Oregon SHOULD win, but the same could have been said of AP #26 (in ORV) Kansas State in 2013 or AP #11 Iowa in 2016. Think back to 2007 when Appalachian State beat AP #7 Michigan. It was just a few short years ago in 2015 that Eastern Washington scored 42 points against a #7 ranked Oregon. In 2014, Eastern Washington gave a respectable Huskies team everything they could handle and narrowly lost a shootout 59-52. Make no mistake that NDSU has been better than Eastern Washington for several years, and an argument could be made that the 2007 NDSU team was as good as the Appalachian State team that took down Michigan (who, granted, ended up not having a stellar season after that loss).

What do these games (and several others like them) have to do with the 2020 Bison vs Ducks game? Nothing. Other than show that the best "lower division" teams can compete pretty well with top 25-ish FBS teams. And right now, the Bison are clearly the best FCS program. In fact, in some of the past few years, the Bison would legitimately have been an AP-top 25 team if they competed at the FBS level. They'd likely be competitive year in and year out for the last several years with any FBS team outside the top 10 or so. That may seem far-fetched to uneducated college football fans, but computer models support the position, as do the limited opportunities the Bison have been able to show it on the field

I think educated Ducks fans will agree that (all smack aside) this game will not be a cake walk, and there is definitely a realistic chance that Oregon will walk away with their heads hanging after a loss. Regardless how the score board ends up, it should be a good time in a fun environment for fans and players.

I've been to the stadium years ago, but never for a game. I live in Eastern Washington and will definitely plan to swing down for the game. My guess is that if there are tickets available, somewhere between 4-8 thousand NDSU fans will be there. Maybe more, but it's a long trip for most NDSU fans.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

GoDucksTroll wrote:I welcome our guest, and I think it’s cool we’re willing to play an FCS team that’s better than half the G-5.

I don’t have an algorithm, but I’m thinking 49-10 Oregon.
Half the G-5? Ha ha! Better than most of the G-5 outside of maybe 2-3 teams each year. And better than more than half of the P-5 teams. Unfortunately, it's getting tough for NDSU to schedule any FBS teams because there really isn't any upside given the very real possibility of a loss. When teams schedule an FCS team, it's supposed to be a "warm up" game and automatic win. A chance to build some depth to second and third team players. That's not what happens when NDSU comes to town fully confident in a win.

I don't expect either team to score much more than 30. That's about all I will probably predict. Close game in the 30-ish to 30-ish range. :-)
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ncduck »

Crazy claim, crazy claim, crazy claim, because...computer! Argument over! NDSU wins!

Waaaaaay too many variables to be decided before you should trust any computer model. Injuries/transfers/recruiting/coaching staff changes all affect how every game plays out. Currently, none of those variable are set. I would never trust the computer model I keep reading about in this thread.

Based on the way the current coaching staff preps the team, I don't think they'll underestimate NDSU. If Oregon comes focused, I expect a lopsided win.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Duck07 »

thebootfitter wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:I welcome our guest, and I think it’s cool we’re willing to play an FCS team that’s better than half the G-5.

I don’t have an algorithm, but I’m thinking 49-10 Oregon.
Half the G-5? Ha ha! Better than most of the G-5 outside of maybe 2-3 teams each year. And better than more than half of the P-5 teams. Unfortunately, it's getting tough for NDSU to schedule any FBS teams because there really isn't any upside given the very real possibility of a loss. When teams schedule an FCS team, it's supposed to be a "warm up" game and automatic win. A chance to build some depth to second and third team players. That's not what happens when NDSU comes to town fully confident in a win.

I don't expect either team to score much more than 30. That's about all I will probably predict. Close game in the 30-ish to 30-ish range. :-)
So, umm, if yall are so good why don't you play up a level?
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by buckmarkduck »

Why is it that so many people continue to think UO is losing so much? On D, we lose Dye, Winston (who has averaged about 25-35 plays a game), and Carlberg. We are bringing in a former Fr AA, and a recruit considered top safety recruit nationally. Our secondary will be much better next year. Sewell hasn't committed yet, but I suspect he will, and he will take Dye's spot. While he will be a Fr, he will have Funa, Slade and KT next to him. UO D could be the tops in the conference next year. I don't see NDSU scoring much vs them.

On O we do lose Herbert and 4 OL. But we also return a top 5 pick at LT, and the last two weeks Aumuvave has been playing over Warmack. Our O will be just fine.
Last edited by buckmarkduck on Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

Duck07 wrote:So, umm, if yall are so good why don't you play up a level?
What's the question here? We are "playing up a level" when we play you. And Arizona and Colorado over the next few years. Unfortunately, the NDSU athletic administration can't get many FBS schools to even consider playing us anymore. True story. (Again, there is no real upside at scheduling a "cupcake lower division team" that can legitimately have a good shot at beating you.)

If the question is why don't we move up to FBS... well, that's a big can of worms, but the short answer is because there are no FBS conferences extending an invitation for us to join, and there's not much upside in being an independent. Our football team would likely have at least a 0.500-ish record in most P-5 conference now -- particularly if we had the facilities and resources to match the label. But there's a lot more involved in playing FBS football than just having a solid product on the field. As much as many (most?) of the NDSU fan base would welcome a move up to prove that we could play with FBS teams every week rather than just once every few years, it doesn't appear to be in the cards in the immediate future.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by lukeyrid13 »

I'd have to think the MAC might be a potential fit
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

lukeyrid13 wrote:I'd have to think the MAC might be a potential fit
Potential, sure. We'd be a peer institution to many of them and have similar funding or even better if we moved up. On the field competition might actually go down a bit compared to the Missouri Valley Football Conference. We're not really in their geographic footprint, though. We'd be an outlier by quite a bit. And there's the pesky problem that the conference actually has to be looking to add a school, and then the school has to be on their radar. I know our administration has considered the question, and has likely had conversations with the MAC and Mountain West (pure speculation, but seems probable).

If you're not going to be in a P-5 conference though, the question needs to be asked whether there is a net upside just to have the FBS label. And even if the product on the field is P-5 caliber, NDSU is not a peer institution in terms of funding and academics with most P-5 schools.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by lukeyrid13 »

With doing minimal research, how does NDSU compare on the peer institution/academic side of things to Appalachian State? It took them a little while but they're gaining decent success after making the jump up. UConn and Boise St are two other examples. UConn was a perennial 1-AA power and then made a Fiesta Bowl before falling off a cliff as of late.
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