Rating Herbert's 2019 Season

[StevensTechU]

As fall gets nearer, I've been watching highlights of games from 2019, and along with it, reminding myself of the strengths, weaknesses, and maddening plays of last year's team. One of the things that naturally sticks out is just how effective was the quarterback. Herbert's numbers scream "consistency." 66.8% completions, 32 TDs to 6 INTs, and a team record of 12-2 definitely isn't bad. What's maddening, though, is watching how many passes Herbert *doesn't* make, either skipping the ball into the receiver or not passing to a receiver who is open. So a large degree, all college QBs do that, but I think when you have a quarterback go in the top 10 picks in the NFL draft, you think to yourself 'how are we ever going to replace that guy.'

Taking the good with the bad, I giver Herbert a solid "B" fo the season. Not great, definitely better than average across the country, but not something you can't replace. His size and athleticism aren't going to be matched for a while, but his execution left plenty of room for others to step into his shoes.

As an aside- I re-watched some of Herbie's games from his freshman year, and it's really disappointing to see what might've been. As a freshman, you see an athletic, ballsy gun-slinger who can look off safeties and, even though mechanics don't look pretty, he gets the ball where it needs to be. Also, when the ball is in the neighborhood, guys actually catch it (Carrington, Pharaoh, Mundt, Baylis, Charles Nelson, and even TBJ out of the backfield was nice). It really appears that either the change in coaches, the loss of faith in his receivers, his injury as a sophomore, or something else changed the way he plays the game, and he certainly didn't make the upward ascension that he was capable of over 4 years. A bit of a bummer, because he came in looking like a future Heisman candidate.

[OregonFan4Life]

As fall gets nearer, I've been watching highlights of games from 2019, and along with it, reminding myself of the strengths, weaknesses, and maddening plays of last year's team. One of the things that naturally sticks out is just how effective was the quarterback. Herbert's numbers scream "consistency." 66.8% completions, 32 TDs to 6 INTs, and a team record of 12-2 definitely isn't bad. What's maddening, though, is watching how many passes Herbert *doesn't* make, either skipping the ball into the receiver or not passing to a receiver who is open. So a large degree, all college QBs do that, but I think when you have a quarterback go in the top 10 picks in the NFL draft, you think to yourself 'how are we ever going to replace that guy.'

Taking the good with the bad, I giver Herbert a solid "B" fo the season. Not great, definitely better than average across the country, but not something you can't replace. His size and athleticism aren't going to be matched for a while, but his execution left plenty of room for others to step into his shoes.

As an aside- I re-watched some of Herbie's games from his freshman year, and it's really disappointing to see what might've been. As a freshman, you see an athletic, ballsy gun-slinger who can look off safeties and, even though mechanics don't look pretty, he gets the ball where it needs to be. Also, when the ball is in the neighborhood, guys actually catch it (Carrington, Pharaoh, Mundt, Baylis, Charles Nelson, and even TBJ out of the backfield was nice). It really appears that either the change in coaches, the loss of faith in his receivers, his injury as a sophomore, or something else changed the way he plays the game, and he certainly didn't make the upward ascension that he was capable of over 4 years. A bit of a bummer, because he came in looking like a future Heisman candidate.

I've heard people say Arroyo really put a tight leash on Herbert the day he took over as OC (started with the Vegas Bowl fiasco). I personally feel both are to blame.

I recently talked to someone who just moved here from LA and is a huge Chargers fan. He said that he believes Herbert has the physical tools but was coddled too much here in Eugene. He talked about the ASU game and how Herbert was awful and the defense was good for the most part except for two plays they screwed up and gave up big touchdowns, but afterwards the local media blamed the defense and failed to acknowledge how horrible Herbert was. He said if the Chargers lose a big game and Herbert plays like that, the media and fans will be all over him and he's not sure he has the mental toughness to respond to it based on what he's seen from him in college. This to me is Herbert's issue, he just seems to lack a mental toughness/calmness great players have along with a sense of urgency. This person also said he believes Herbert would've been better off going away for college instead of staying home, which I have to agree with.

Herbert is a mystery, I either see a complete bust and waste of a pick from the Chargers, or an elite QB, but not much inbetween. It's a complete gamble to me how he will do in the NFL. I obviously hope he does great, but he has a lot of improving to do.

For me as a duck fan, the most annoying aspect of Herbert were the Freshman mistakes. From fumbling a basic zone read against Auburn to throwing dumb consecutive easy picks to ASU to zoning in on one receiver the entire play, as you said, he almost kind of regressed after his Freshman year and it's a mystery as to why. Sure Herbert made some of the most impressive throws you'll ever see, but he'd follow that up with taking a stupid sack on 1st and 10 off of a bootleg for an 8 yard loss when he easily could've thrown it away. He was certainly frustrating as a duck fan and I'm thankful for his accomplishments at Oregon but I'm certainly ready for a new QB at Oregon, one who is hopefully more consistent and less stressful.

[StevensTechU]

That 'lack of toughness," if it exists, is definitely not something that has always been. In high school, he played phenomenally when his Sheldon team was outmatched by Jesuit. His freshman year, he took a team on the skids and made it respectable, including big performances at Cal and in a win at #11 Utah. His sophomore year, he picked up where he left off, but then he got injured. His junior year, his receivers couldn't catch a cold and you could almost watch him lose confidence in from of your eyes, and his senior year things really looked robotic.

As for his NFL prospects, I think it's dependent on whether they can unwind the last two years of his football life.

As for the Ducks, I feel confident Brown can replace what Herbert gave us, and Shough might as well.

[dd10snoop28]

As fall gets nearer, I've been watching highlights of games from 2019, and along with it, reminding myself of the strengths, weaknesses, and maddening plays of last year's team. One of the things that naturally sticks out is just how effective was the quarterback. Herbert's numbers scream "consistency." 66.8% completions, 32 TDs to 6 INTs, and a team record of 12-2 definitely isn't bad. What's maddening, though, is watching how many passes Herbert *doesn't* make, either skipping the ball into the receiver or not passing to a receiver who is open. So a large degree, all college QBs do that, but I think when you have a quarterback go in the top 10 picks in the NFL draft, you think to yourself 'how are we ever going to replace that guy.'

Taking the good with the bad, I giver Herbert a solid "B" fo the season. Not great, definitely better than average across the country, but not something you can't replace. His size and athleticism aren't going to be matched for a while, but his execution left plenty of room for others to step into his shoes.

As an aside- I re-watched some of Herbie's games from his freshman year, and it's really disappointing to see what might've been. As a freshman, you see an athletic, ballsy gun-slinger who can look off safeties and, even though mechanics don't look pretty, he gets the ball where it needs to be. Also, when the ball is in the neighborhood, guys actually catch it (Carrington, Pharaoh, Mundt, Baylis, Charles Nelson, and even TBJ out of the backfield was nice). It really appears that either the change in coaches, the loss of faith in his receivers, his injury as a sophomore, or something else changed the way he plays the game, and he certainly didn't make the upward ascension that he was capable of over 4 years. A bit of a bummer, because he came in looking like a future Heisman candidate.

Perfect summary of Justin Herbert's career w/ Oregon.

To me, his last season was a disappointment based on what he showed his freshman year (and parts of Sophomore year).

[GrandpaDuck]

Tough to say which was better, his freshman year when you consider he was a fall entry true freshman or his Sophomore year running Slick Willie's offense where he was probably at his peak in the limited games he played.

No one has come close to convincing me that his stagnation after his sophomore year wasn't 99.9% coaching and offensive system.

[FlashDuck]

He was good for the most part, but had some not so good moments at inconvenient times. When he played the better teams the numbers dropped off quite a bit.

[Phalanx]

I think what hopefully separates Herbert from other good Oregon quarterbacks like Harrington, Dixon, and Mariota, is that the things he is good at are things that might translate well to the NFL. He has a strong arm and a lot of practice trying to zip passes into tight spaces because his receivers often couldn't get separation. NFL receivers will catch his balls better. Also, hopefully his size makes him more durable than Dennis and Marcus, and maybe more difficult to tackle. That was a pretty mean stiff arm he was showing off in the Rose Bowl.

The main hope is that his seeming lack of development as a passer was a function of Arroyo's lack of a developed offense and the bad receivers Herbert was saddled with after his freshman year.

[duckfan96]

If I graded his season it’d be a B. My thoughts on why...he had some nice games, he had some crappy games. He led a team to the pac 12 title and a rose bowl win. I no guru and I don’t break down film, but it looked like his hands were tied at times and was skittish to throw to certain receivers. More so after Breeland went down. I think he will have a very good NFL career

[GoDucksIn09]

I don't think he will have a good pro career. I think it will be mediocre at best. The main issue I see with him is he gets rattled way to easily. The mental toughness as some have pointed out is lacking. In the pros the guys are lot faster and lot better than he would see in college. The difference is it is lots of good players in the pros verses maybe 2 or 3 in college. I want him to succeed but if he thinks playing against one good defensive team in the Pac 12 compares to the talent you have in pros, he will find it a rude awakening. I am not saying he thinks that, am merely just saying the talent level he will face in pros is a lot better. I think in 6 years he will be done. Maybe not even that long. He will still end up making more money than I would see in a lifetime.

[FlDuckFan]

Good analysis STU,can't say that I disagree at all.
Nice guys finish last usually because they lack confidence. He has all the tools and brains to do well. My little brother has the same problem as Herbert, when the lights not shown on him he excels but once he's relied upon he gets nervous and palatalizes himself with doubt and overthinking. Sometimes a change of scenery can help hopefully with the talent at WR in LA they can flip the switch for him.