Fall camp

[ICamel]

We would be above 80% if they "followed the science" and counted those that have had Covid and thusly have natural immunity.

[pezsez1]

We would be above 80% if they "followed the science" and counted those that have had Covid and thusly have natural immunity.

A couple things...

The 70% statewide vaccination goal was for ages 18+ with at least partial vaccination. The medical/scientific community has been pretty clear we'd need closer to 80 percent (give or take a few percentage points) of FULL immunity (via vaccination or recovery) among the ENTIRE population to reach the threshold of herd immunity.

We need far more adults to be fully vaccinated to reach that 80% mark. As others have said, keep talking to your unvaccinated family and friends. Urge them to ignore whichever news shows they watch and instead talk to their doctors.

Also, we really don't know how many people have natural immunity from COVID. Testing was pretty dismal for the initial months of the pandemic so we're missing a ton of data. We still don't have any real virus surveillance programs like some other countries do.

I do think it's safe to say though that if that many people truly had natural immunity then we wouldn't be seeing these massive nationwide surges from the Delta variant. To this point, all evidence points to natural immunity being quite strong -- perhaps even stronger than vaccination immunity -- so the likelihood of these surges being fueled by reinfections are low. (Note: The strongest form of immunity appears to come from the combination of recovery AND vaccination. So anyone who recovered from COVID still benefits from vaccination.)

The TLDR: Not nearly enough Oregonians are vaccinated for us to have herd immunity at this time.


Regarding closures, I don't see that happening. Capacity restrictions, maybe. Requiring vaccinations to enter Autzen, maybe. Reserving certain sections for vaccinated fans only like they did at some NBA games, maybe. But I don't think Gov. Brown has the political will to enforce another round of restrictions. My prediction is masks will be mandated and that will be about it. Hopefully, more adults get vaccinated as our vaccines get FDA approval and the realities of COVID become increasingly undeniable.

[Quietduck]

Actually, it appears that neither the vaccine nor having the disease is confirming immunity. Both have been shown to have antibodies for at least 6 months in tests. The reason neither is better is the same it is a virus and is constantly mutating. It is not done mutating. It could really turn something that has a death toll that makes this look like child play or it could mutate in a common cold. This is why until recently doctors said it's a virus go home and drink fluids and rest. Not being as arrogant as we are now they looked at the natural lifecycle of the virus and said we can't keep up. I don't care if someone wants the palliative effects of the shot or to risk based on their immune system we cannot keep up with any virus. Guess what by the time we think we have this one beat the next one will come along and set us back again.

[pezsez1]

We CAN stay out in front of this with vaccines. Right now, like 95 percent of all hospitalizations and deaths are unvaccinated people. This is literally proof that vaccines are working and the virus is mainly affecting the unvaccinated. It really can't get more clear than this.

In my last post, I made a comment about "the undeniable realities of COVID." That's basically what I'm talking about. Most Oregonians are vaccinated, and yet the vast majority of those showing up in hospitals are unvaccinated. Eventually, I really hope this speaks louder than all the politicians/talking heads who get people all riled up.

Yes, the virus mutates, and it will never be gone completely... but with herd immunity, the virus would be more or less de-fanged. A recent study found that people in Italy who were infected during the first big wave (before it really hit here) still had antibodies nine months after infection, and in some cases antibody levels had actually increased. The study concluded that these folks may eventually be vulnerable to re-infection and viral shedding but that they'd likely be protected from significant illness.

Really, we just need to ride this out as best as we can until vaccines are available for people in all age groups. At that point, we really will all have the freedom to choose our outcomes without being at the mercy of other people's decisions. For now, though -- if we really wanted to guarantee a full Autzen Stadium, no business closures, no restaurant restrictions, etc. -- the key is getting people vaccinated.

[Quietduck]

I wish you were right. We are struggling to keep up with the mutations. Right now it is close enough for the shots to help. One or two mutations from now and that is unlikely to be the case. The problem is that we have formulas that were designed for the original disease but it is moving away from that virus which is why people who had it or had the injections are getting the next wave. I agree we need to ride it out but we can only hope it gets weaker, not stronger. Herd immunity works faster than science but once again it is based on the virus it is exposed to and cannot protect against a mutated virus it doesn't recognize anymore.

Let me give an example not an exact match but it illustrates the point. The Black Death spread to Europe from Asia by means of fleas off of animals. It killed at about a 60% rate depending on the population involved. It mutated to the pneumonic plague which spread through the air like our Covid. It killed at a rate of 90%+ then to septicemic plague even higher. While this was a bacteria instead of a virus the pattern still fits. People who survived the original often died of the last two. Mutation is how disease (virus or bacteria ) continues and survives. Just to note we still have all three of these in the world even with treatments and people die often from these.

[Quietduck]

But back to football. I believe in this team and I hope that by the end of fall camp we have a defense that can stop the run and an offense that can keep the ball moving. Points will come if the offense is moving.

[pezsez1]

I have high hopes for CJ Verdell. He improved so much toward the end of 2019 and last season was a massive step back. I'm hoping it was just COVID/lack of practice/etc. and that late 2019 wasn't a fluke.

[GrantDuck]

We would be above 80% if they "followed the science" and counted those that have had Covid and thusly have natural immunity.

No we would not. About 12% of the United States has gotten Covid(less in Oregon) and about 50% are vaccinated.

Roughly 62% at the moment.

As others have pointed out, the virus will continue to mutate until we have herd immunity. I hope that can be through vaccines rather than more people dying.

[GrantDuck]

I have high hopes for CJ Verdell. He improved so much toward the end of 2019 and last season was a massive step back. I'm hoping it was just COVID/lack of practice/etc. and that late 2019 wasn't a fluke.

He was really good in the Stanford game. Fast, trucking people, etc. The problem is just he always is banged up. Even if he's more healthy this year(fingers crossed), we need more depth at that spot. Dye is a solid player with a ceiling.

[GrantDuck]

Seven McGee is probably the offensive player I'm most curious to see if/how we use this season.