UOducksTK1 wrote:True, plus was nice to see the Huskies get jipped and for us to beat USC.
Anyway I bet this season turns out a bit like the VA season. Some good talent, but some holes in key areas that hold us back.
An illegal hit is all that held us back during VA season. With a healthy VA, we easily beat WSU, maybe the worst inexcusable move by held ever putting a backup QB in during crunch time. We lost to MSU, again a fully healthy VA, we win. That was playoff team if VA is healthy. Not a natty team.
As for the Brown will throw INt that cost us, maybe but he has 40 career TB to 20 INT. I’m guessing he didn’t have half the talent to throw to he will have this year.
UOducksTK1 wrote:
Question for you, why do you think we’ll be any different than least year’s helfrich like season?
But to answer your question, my concerns:
-RB play is meh. Especially cuz of my other concerns below. Having elite RB play can make up for OL or AB inconsistencies.
-I like AB, but I already know he’s gonna have a couple games with bad turnovers that will probably give us a L.
-OL, I guess I’m not as sold as everyone. Another position I think I’ll be inconsistent and a few bad games as well.
-Last years defense gave up 38 points or more in 3 of their 5 regular season games. I see our defense in the middle of the PAC.
There aren't a lot of people who disagree about RB. It just isn't good. Verdell had a good freshman season, and has more or less fallen off the map. Some people say it's because of injuries, and it's possible he had to play through injuries. The production just wasn't good. Obviously, RB and OL go together so is it the chicken or the egg. Dye.... I have said it before and I'll say it again. He's playing the wrong position. He's 20 pounds underweight and belongs in the slot or tazer position. Period. Every time he coughs up the ball, remember these words. Looks like Dollars might miss the season due to injury so that's less development for him. It looks like we can only meaningfully develop Benson if that's true. At least he's a bigger back and I think a giant determinant to success at the highest levels is size. When you think of all the great CFB RB's in the last decade, extremely few are under 210. I'll name one... Helaire from LSU at 207. Happy to hear someone else list some. We've seen guys like Jacquizz Rodgers make a career for himself and do well... he's the exception, not the norm.
AB... no one knows. He could flop, he could do well. Who knows. But he had to believe that he will not make a ton of bone headed mistakes this year or else he would've moved somewhere else.
OL - yes, the talent is in the younger classes but the starters are older. It'll be better for sure with the younger guys pushing for PT.
Defense, it should be fine. There are playmakers at all 3 levels. Can DeRuyter put it together? If I'm a betting man, I'm going with a yes.
Bigger picture - when we compare to last year, I think everyone needs to remember that these guys were told somewhere between April and August that there wasn't a season. If I signed you up for a marathon in 2 months vs 1.5 years from today, and had you run the marathon anyways in 2 months, you're obviously going to do significantly worse in the latter set of circumstances. I think the coordinators are competent people based upon their prior successes and therefore I think this will be a good season. Maybe we can actually count on the defense again like in 2019.
Simple answer - I agree with pretty much everything you said. I'm a little more optimistic about AB and the defense than you are but that's about it.
Having an actual QB will obviously make this a very different team. Pretty sure TS completed 5 passes where the target was more than 5 yards downfield (he only completed 8 the entire game) against USC. That's just bad. I doubt we'll see something like that again. I guess you can put it on CMC for not playing the right QB for an entire season....
It goes in cycles. We tend to remember the good times and forget the bad. The green duck glasses tint our views. Every position that doesn't have a star is questions and the coach of that position is blamed. Just over the last 20 years, I can remember board blaming coaches for RB, LB, OL, Kicker, Punters, DL... It comes down to if we haven't or don't have a star there in the last two years it get rid of the coach time. Occasionally it the right thing to do but ultimately it's the players that win or lose the games. There is no way to prove that a coach made or broke a player. We had a running back that was a five star from Oregon that never made it for us or the Beav's was that the coach's fault?
With mask mandates coming back for unvaccinated and vaccinated it’s only a matter of time until shutdowns happen again. I wonder if fans won’t be allowed at games again and if the season will get delayed or cancelled.
Quietduck wrote:It goes in cycles. We tend to remember the good times and forget the bad. The green duck glasses tint our views. Every position that doesn't have a star is questions and the coach of that position is blamed. Just over the last 20 years, I can remember board blaming coaches for RB, LB, OL, Kicker, Punters, DL... It comes down to if we haven't or don't have a star there in the last two years it get rid of the coach time. Occasionally it the right thing to do but ultimately it's the players that win or lose the games. There is no way to prove that a coach made or broke a player. We had a running back that was a five star from Oregon that never made it for us or the Beav's was that the coach's fault?
And the coaching staff has been shuffled a lot in the last 20 years so the blame wasn't necessarily wrong? CMC could pull off an amazing recruiting get if he can reel in Gary Campbell in from retirement. His pitch should be: "bring me a LMJ/Blount/Stewart and I'll bring you a national championship ring. You've been here for 20 years and it's never too late to get a ring"
I think it's that simple. A star running back could really make us unstoppable especially behind this OL.
MC will not go after Gary Campbell. I am not trying to relitigate the past here but after the Lyles debacle Gary Campbell was lucky to remain employed for the additonal time he was prior to his retirement. I am not in anyway trying to disparage GC at all, I am just sharing information that was confirmed by multiple people with solid ties to Oregon athletics.
Quietduck wrote:It goes in cycles. We tend to remember the good times and forget the bad. The green duck glasses tint our views. Every position that doesn't have a star is questions and the coach of that position is blamed. Just over the last 20 years, I can remember board blaming coaches for RB, LB, OL, Kicker, Punters, DL... It comes down to if we haven't or don't have a star there in the last two years it get rid of the coach time. Occasionally it the right thing to do but ultimately it's the players that win or lose the games. There is no way to prove that a coach made or broke a player. We had a running back that was a five star from Oregon that never made it for us or the Beav's was that the coach's fault?
And the coaching staff has been shuffled a lot in the last 20 years so the blame wasn't necessarily wrong? CMC could pull off an amazing recruiting get if he can reel in Gary Campbell in from retirement. His pitch should be: "bring me a LMJ/Blount/Stewart and I'll bring you a national championship ring. You've been here for 20 years and it's never too late to get a ring"
I think it's that simple. A star running back could really make us unstoppable especially behind this OL.
A star running back should be wanting to play behind this OL. I expect us to pick up 1-2 studs next year, if not sooner.
I'd like to see more from the guys now. Verdell was a no-show last year and Dye is good, but fumble prone.
ducks5ever wrote:Simple answer - I agree with pretty much everything you said. I'm a little more optimistic about AB and the defense than you are but that's about it.
Having an actual QB will obviously make this a very different team. Pretty sure TS completed 5 passes where the target was more than 5 yards downfield (he only completed 8 the entire game) against USC. That's just bad. I doubt we'll see something like that again. I guess you can put it on CMC for not playing the right QB for an entire season....
Right. We agree on most the issues, just the interpretation is a little different for each of us.
One thing I will say. Oregon may get bailed out by a weak Pac-12. But I still stand by my 3-4 regular season losses by the time we go into bowl games.
I'm not convinced that the rest of the Pac-12 is going to suck.
P12 North:
Oregon State- After the clusterF of Gary Andersen, Smith has increased the talent level in a major way by tapping into the transfer portal and continuing to get guys who slip through the cracks for one reason or another. Jermar Jefferson and Nahshon Wright got drafted in 2021 (and somehow Hamilcar Rashed didn't). The lines don't wow you but they're 'good enough.' In the end, this team will go as far as their QB/RB positions will take them.
Stanford- Crap. Stanford's demise will continue. Somehow 'Furd has lost its way.
Washington State- They have the most underrated QB in the conference in Jayden De Laura (latest in a string of top flight Hawai'in QBs going back to Timmy Chang and Masoli). De Laura had an Ohio State offer but didn't want to decommit from Wazzu. So throw a top flight QB (assuming he continues to develop from his true frosh year) with a unique offense, and they'll be as dangerous as always.
uw- Their defense is going to take a step back with Kwiatkowski going to Texas, but rarely does that happen overnight. So expect a team that will hold most opponents to under 20 for at least one more year. If Dylan Morris takes a big step forward, this could realistically be a top 15 team this year. After this year, I think the lack of recruiting starts to catch up with them, but not yet.
Cal- Like uw, I don't think their defense is going to tank in year 1 without their DC (DeRuyter). For 10+ years, I've thought NorCal has been perhaps the most underrated bed of talent in the country, and as such, I think Cal's got more talent on their squad than 247 would have you believe. I expect them to again have a solid defense, and with a health Garbers, their offense may not be prolific but it'll score points.
Oregon- We rule. Go Ducks.
Projected finish: Oregon, uw, Cal, OSU, Wazzu, 'Furd. That said, I think any of Cal, Wazzu, or OSU could sneak their way into being top 25 teams potentially. None will be easy outs for Oregon this year, in my mind.
P12 South:
USC- They have the quarterback. They have the WRs and DBs. With those in place, they're a competitor in the Pac-12 and beyond. How will their lines hold up? Seems like every year it would be equally unsurprising if USC was top 10 or not even top 25. This is definitely one of those years.
ASU- Top flight QB. NFL caliber pieces here and there. My question is do they have major holes that will become apparent 2-3 games into the season because the talent is crap outside of those pieces? Fringe top 25 team, which means they won't be a great rep for the conference but could absolutely play spoiler for someone else.
Arizona- Crap. Total crap. Grant Gunnell was the lone bright spot on this roster at QB but he left for Memphis and I don't know what there is to be excited about now.
Colorado- If 2020 showed us anything from this team, it was that the coaching staff gets the most out of its roster. They don't have a ton of talent, but it's hard for me to imagine them going less than .500 in conference, especially with their home advantage in the Rockies.
Utah- Kyle Whittingham doesn't put out bad teams. With the transfer QB from Baylor coming in (plus another from Texas), they'll have plus QB play to pair with a solid defense (notice how many times I'm citing good defenses in the conference this year? it's weird). They won't be great, but again will have enough to play spoiler to someone else.
UCLA- Call it naivite, but year 3 of Chip, I think we see his stamp on this team. Like some other teams, my biggest question is about the quality of their OL and DL. No part of me would be surprised if USC goes undefeated into the crosstown game and Chip's crew beats them.
TL;DR - There are enough good defenses and good QBs in this league that, though only 3 have the talent to be top 10-15 teams, most of the conference has the ability to beat top 10-15 teams on a given night. #Pac12AfterDark
Good analysis STU. I do think ASU might have some issues. That scandal is big time and I get all the 'coach speak' that it won't affect them, they're focused on the season etc., but one coach is already on admin leave and there is word more could be in the same boat before long. Sure, that's the rumor mill but that whole deal at ASU is pretty ugly and some of the stuff that is circulating about Daniels' mom ain't pretty. We know the NCAA moves at a glacial pace but according to some ASU insiders, there is discord on that coaching staff at the moment.
Trying not to read too much into last season; but, a big one I would NOT like to see repeated is an offense that only averaged 61 snaps per game (and defended 76 snaps per game) and lost time of possession 26 to 34 minutes per game (finishing 119 out of 127 teams ranked).
This isn't "we don't care about TOP" Chip with an offense playing fast, scoring fast, and playing "bend-but-don't-break" behind leads; and, the 8 teams that finished below Oregon in TOP finished 15-41. The Duck offense was on the field for only 17 minutes in the bowl!
I'd like to see Dye get 5-6 carries a game and catch a couple passes (and I think that's going to maximize his contribution). Verdell hopefully gets used a bit more in ways other than pounding the LOS, but I would like to see him at about 12-14 carries a game (maybe 60-65 yards). Maybe 5 carries for whoever emerges to get their feet wet.
While the Verdell injury certainly played into it (as well as a young QB who probably trusted his legs more than his arm), but I was mildly surprised to see Shough lead the team in carries last year with 66. While I don't think AB was brought in for his legs specifically, in limited action I think he showed ability and good decision making in that department. Still, I think 6-8 carries is an ok number (not twice that, which I think a JM offense seems very capable of generating).
Which comes to the point, I think we need to find an offensive core which is throwing the ball as much as 35-38 times a game. Last year was only averaged 27 pass attempts to game (with a high of 32 against OSU).
I fully realize that's a high (and unlikely) number, and that in the last 30 seasons, the Duck offense has only average 35+ passes a game 4 times (2006 being the last).
The team needs to get back closer to 70 offensive snaps and I can't see maximizing existing returning rushing talent running the ball more than 28-33 times a game, leaving 35-38 passes. That is A LOT different than the 34 rush to 27 pass ratio last year.
I do see in Penn State's 2017 (11-2) year with RB Barkley they did still manage 35 pass attempts per game (35-35 ratio) under Morehead (and that was with a "running" QB).
I think this offense maximizes it's talents by throwing the ball at it's core, more rather than being again rush heavy, in 2021. Something probably out of the "comfort zone" for both MC and JM (so I wonder if it happens). I also do get flashes of Ty Thompson behind a big and talented OL and a bunch of highly rated WRs and TEs spreading the ball around about 38-40 times a game in the future (but sort of wonder if we see that either).
OregonFan4Life wrote:With mask mandates coming back for unvaccinated and vaccinated it’s only a matter of time until shutdowns happen again. I wonder if fans won’t be allowed at games again and if the season will get delayed or cancelled.
It depends if we can get enough people vaccinated in Oregon. Need to get to 80%+.
Encourage friends and family to get vaccinated and you're more likely to have full attendance, mask free!
OregonFan4Life wrote:With mask mandates coming back for unvaccinated and vaccinated it’s only a matter of time until shutdowns happen again. I wonder if fans won’t be allowed at games again and if the season will get delayed or cancelled.
It depends if we can get enough people vaccinated in Oregon. Need to get to 80%+.
Encourage friends and family to get vaccinated and you're more likely to have full attendance, mask free!
Thought we only needed 70%? Oh, right, the goalposts moving again. It seems pretty clear where this will all lead, especially now with the state announcing K-12 will be required to mask-up for the fall. Don’t see how public universities don’t get mandated/follow.
OregonFan4Life wrote:With mask mandates coming back for unvaccinated and vaccinated it’s only a matter of time until shutdowns happen again. I wonder if fans won’t be allowed at games again and if the season will get delayed or cancelled.
It depends if we can get enough people vaccinated in Oregon. Need to get to 80%+.
Encourage friends and family to get vaccinated and you're more likely to have full attendance, mask free!
Thought we only needed 70%? Oh, right, the goalposts moving again. It seems pretty clear where this will all lead, especially now with the state announcing K-12 will be required to mask-up for the fall. Don’t see how public universities don’t get mandated/follow.
K-12 is because most kids can't get vaccinated yet.
It is frustrating though. Things like the Spring game cancellation were ridiculous and not based on science at all. Masks/Vaccine cards, I'd prefer not to have either, but I honestly don't care as long as we're as we're at full capacity!
