How Bad is the Pac-12?

[StevensTechU]

Decided to pull up the FPI rankings after 3 weeks to get a sense of just how bad the Pac-12 is this year compared to years past. Here are the computer-generated rankings.

Going back to 2005, here is the conference's average ranking every year excluding covid-2020:

32. 37. 32. 45. 41. 38. 39. 43. 33. 33. 38. 41. 42. 45. 42. 56.

While 2021 is exceptionally bad, the trend is pretty clear. The conference has had a number of seasons where the average team was almost a top 25 team (2005, 2007, 2013, 2014), but none recently. In 2013, the league's coaches included RichRod, Sonny Dykes, Mike MacIntyre, Mike Riley, Todd Graham, David Shaw, Kiffin/Orgeron, Jim Mora, Whittingham, Leach, Sarkisian, and Helfrich. To me, it's hardly questionable that the quality of coaches has gone downhill since then (Oregon being the exception).

Money. Bad luck. Dumbassery by coaches. Lots of reasons for the reduction in coaching and player talent over the last ten years.

[StevensTechU]

Here are two sets of standings for comparison's sake:

2021, Week 3:

8. Oregon
24. USC
27. UCLA
34. washington
41. Utah
49. Arizona State
51. Stanford
63. Oregon State
85. Cal
87. Colorado
97. Wazzu
111. Arizona

2014, end of season:

1. Oregon
11. UCLA
12. Stanford
13. USC
24. Arizona State
25. Arizona
27. Utah
34. washington
47. Cal
61. Oregon State
62. Wazzu
75. Colorado

[ducks5ever]

This isn't a bad thing though. For those who complain about the SEC playing more cupcake games than others, or Clemson never playing a quality opponent for an entire season, this is our shot. Also if USC/UCLA don't rise up soon and we're the unquestionable premier west coast team, it'll make it easier to get the best recruits out of Cali.

[StevensTechU]

This isn't a bad thing though. For those who complain about the SEC playing more cupcake games than others, or Clemson never playing a quality opponent for an entire season, this is our shot. Also if USC/UCLA don't rise up soon and we're the unquestionable premier west coast team, it'll make it easier to get the best recruits out of Cali.

From a competitive standpoint, sure. But it's a bad thing for Oregon's athletic department. When the Pac-12 goes to negotiate their next TV contract, only being able to say "Oregon is good" is not going to result in a rich contract, and the gap in revenue from Pac-12 schools to other Power 5 conferences will get even larger. That means getting/keeping the Cristobals, Altmans, Moorheads and DeRuyters (and money for quality coaches in non-revenue sports) will get less likely.

Unless Oregon has something else up their sleeve to close the gap with Alabama from a revenue standpoint, they need the infusion of money that a better TV deal brings.

[ducks5ever]

Yup the revenue is definitely important. Unfortunately, the gap is already incredibly wide between our main competitors and us.

Quickly glancing at some numbers, it looks like Big 10 schools get the most per school (average ~$54MM) while the SEC comes in second (average ~$44MM). Rest are as follows but the other 3 big conferences are fairly close together

Big 12 - $34MM
Pac 12 - $32MM
ACC - $29MM

I know the years don't line up perfectly but I pulled these quickly and there shouldn't be any large fluctuations between the years of comparison.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... 856234001/
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... iscal-year
https://apnews.com/article/college-foot ... 420fc77bec

[StevensTechU]

It makes me seriously wonder if Oregon would be best served going independent. It would increase the cost basis for travel and whatnot, for sure, but I wonder what an individual TV deal would bring.

[karlhungis]

Fresno getting worked by UNLV certainly isn't helping.

[Everythingsducky]

It makes me seriously wonder if Oregon would be best served going independent. It would increase the cost basis for travel and whatnot, for sure, but I wonder what an individual TV deal would bring.

Don’t you think Phil would have people on it, if it was viable? Unfortunately, UO has not the history, nor fan base Norte Dame has, not even a decipherable percentage to compare, at all, to pull it off. A school like Norte Dame is perfectly lined up for their following, i.e., a religious (literal) following, as well as ethnic, and long standing history of winning. Not happening anytime soon.

[gogreen55]

Fresno getting worked by UNLV certainly isn't helping.

Fresno St. won at least. That is all that will matter in the end.

[ducks5ever]

It makes me seriously wonder if Oregon would be best served going independent. It would increase the cost basis for travel and whatnot, for sure, but I wonder what an individual TV deal would bring.

Don’t you think Phil would have people on it, if it was viable? Unfortunately, UO has not the history, nor fan base Norte Dame has, not even a decipherable percentage to compare, at all, to pull it off. A school like Norte Dame is perfectly lined up for their following, i.e., a religious (literal) following, as well as ethnic, and long standing history of winning. Not happening anytime soon.

That's not the issue. Even if the conference sucks (and I'm not saying the pac-12 is flat out bad), it still has collective negotiating power. As you mention Notre Dame has some things going for it but the number I see floating around is $22MM. That's lower than the numbers I found for the P5 schools.

As far as other TV deal attempts, Texas has (had?) the longhorn network and I'm pretty sure that was a money-losing operation. It probably would have worked out better if they won more games and were more relevant.

[rentdodger]

It makes me seriously wonder if Oregon would be best served going independent. It would increase the cost basis for travel and whatnot, for sure, but I wonder what an individual TV deal would bring.

Seriously….

I think your big picture view of Oregon’s national footprint is a tad bit inflated. Geography is the root of many of the PAC-12 problems. Outside of California, Seattle and Phoenix and maybe Portland and Denver there are limited eyeballs in the west compared to the rest of the US. The PAC-12 has to literally cover a huge amount of territory to bring the power 5 teams they have.

That is always going to be the issue.

Quite frankly you sound like a Husky in the 80’s and 90’s singing the same song and Oregon was on the wrong side of that discussion. Then scholarship limits came in leveling the playing field.

Maybe NIL plays a role in further evening things out, maybe not.

Oregon will always be tied to the PAC-12 and it is in the best interest of all schools involved to improve the product.

[buckmarkduck]

It makes me seriously wonder if Oregon would be best served going independent. It would increase the cost basis for travel and whatnot, for sure, but I wonder what an individual TV deal would bring.

UO doesn’t have the money or following to pull off being an independent. Our sports programs would be terrible within a decade of that move.

[pezsez1]

After Clemson's loss today, could an argument be made that the ACC is the worst power-5 conference?

[duck023]

After Clemson's loss today, could an argument be made that the ACC is the worst power-5 conference?

The ACC is always worse than the Pac 12 in fact I think the Mountain West schedule is tougher than an ACC schedule. I think some of you guy's don't get that the Pac 12's depth has actually hurt the Pac 12 over the years. It would actually be better for the Pac 12 to be more top heavy like the ACC. As an Oregon fan there was a time when I cared about the Pac 12 being the best conference top to bottom but now I feel the only way the Pac 12 will get respect is if a great team has success in the playoffs.