What does the future of Oregon football look like?

[woundedknees]

It’s one game. PAC-12 teams don’t go undefeated in conference, just doesn’t happen. Injuries have decimated this team. Swinson better be back next game. Forsyth and Bennett Williams out was huge. Ducks are deeper than they have been, but nobody can lose all the players they have, and realistically expect to go undefeated. Worst year for injuries so far, overall, than I can ever remember. BTW, if you want to gripe about the O play calling, Crapea said Mastro was calling the game.

Go back and take a gander at the major injury bug that bit Oregon in the rear in 2007...Dixon might have been the potential Heisman winning QB, but his mea was just the final straw in a cascade of devastating injuries.

[buckmarkduck]

It’s one game. PAC-12 teams don’t go undefeated in conference, just doesn’t happen. Injuries have decimated this team. Swinson better be back next game. Forsyth and Bennett Williams out was huge. Ducks are deeper than they have been, but nobody can lose all the players they have, and realistically expect to go undefeated. Worst year for injuries so far, overall, than I can ever remember. BTW, if you want to gripe about the O play calling, Crapea said Mastro was calling the game.

Go back and take a gander at the major injury bug that bit Oregon in the rear in 2007...Dixon might have been the potential Heisman winning QB, but his mea was just the final straw in a cascade of devastating injuries.

That’s always been what Duck fans like to think at least. I don’t personally think Dixon was winning it. The media was in love with Tebow.

[StevensTechU]

Dixon was the frontrunner when he got hurt. Would he have won it at season's end? Who knows. (But probably.)

I wrote this during the off-season, but Oregon has potential to be great in 2022, but the giant question mark I have is at quarterback. To anybody who watched Ty Thompson's high school tape or watched his performances so far with a critical eye, you see that he doesn't exactly have amazing ball accuracy, either. His best pass of this season so far was an underthrown ball that Dont'e stopped for and took the distance. I think he's realistically 2 years away from being capable of being the guy, so calling for him to start now with a lot still on the line is highly reactionary IMO. I want Thompson to be great, but I think the coaches would be wise to again look at transfer QBs this off-season, and maybe they can justify it if Butterfield chooses to transfer. It doesn't help that Tanner Bailey is probably the lowest ceiling QB recruit we've taken in recent memory. So yes, I'd say QB recruiting hasn't been great.

[OregonFan4Life]

Dixon was the frontrunner when he got hurt. Would he have won it at season's end? Who knows. (But probably.)

I wrote this during the off-season, but Oregon has potential to be great in 2022, but the giant question mark I have is at quarterback. To anybody who watched Ty Thompson's high school tape or watched his performances so far with a critical eye, you see that he doesn't exactly have amazing ball accuracy, either. His best pass of this season so far was an underthrown ball that Dont'e stopped for and took the distance. I think he's realistically 2 years away from being capable of being the guy, so calling for him to start now with a lot still on the line is highly reactionary IMO. I want Thompson to be great, but I think the coaches would be wise to again look at transfer QBs this off-season, and maybe they can justify it if Butterfield chooses to transfer. It doesn't help that Tanner Bailey is probably the lowest ceiling QB recruit we've taken in recent memory. So yes, I'd say QB recruiting hasn't been great.

I don’t understand this train of thought, and that’s mainly cause you say Thompson isn’t ready due to accuracy issues, but it’s not like like the starting QB has solid accuracy. I want Thompson to start, and that’s not cause I think he’s an upgrade over Brown, but rather I don’t see Brown as much better than Thompson if he’s even better at all, and like you said things line up much better for a run next year, but a giant missing piece will be an unknown question mark at QB with a young guy coming in with no real experience due to Oregon making every game unnecessarily close. With the opening game being against Georgia next year I think it’s time for Mario to invest all his QB marbles into the Thompson basket, maybe even adjust the offense a bit to fit his skill suit, and do everything we can to build him into the next Oregon great QB. From my perspective the long term benefits of starting Ty now outweighs the short term risks of starting him after the loss yesterday.

[pezsez1]

My question for Stevens:

If MC were to make Thompson the starter TODAY, do you think he'd be ready to compete for a win against Cal?

I simply don't see how a 5* prospect wouldn't be. Like OF4L, I wouldn't expect Thompson to walk out there like Marcus Mariota and light it up, but I'd expect him to be close enough to AB's performance that at least his reps aren't wasted with a loss.

Games lost with AB at QB feel completely worthless because AB isn't our future. He's also not winning a national championship, even if we squeak into the playoffs. Honestly, though, I'm more worried about us beating Oregon State right now than getting into the playoffs. And it's not that I think our whole team sucks, I just think our offense will only really be as good as Anthony Brown or our lukewarm running game. We need to do SOMETHING to make one of those units better.

Who is most likely to get reps at RB if Verdell is out? That could be an X-factor.

[OrTDuck]

I would say Ashford looks a lot more like the QBs who JM has chosen in the past at stops like Penn State and Mississippi State (in build and style), but there just doesn't seem too much momentum in that direction in the near term (I think Ashford missed a bunch of his senior year with injury).

It may be a case of wait and see where he might be in a couple years. If he is happy and developing, looks like at the very least a good #2 QB option if not more (that is, a talented guy at #2 you feel confident can come in and you can run some things for and win with).

Ty is interesting because he has good size and athleticism, but I don't think he really wants to run the ball much. We have seen a couple quarters and he is 2 carries for -3 (the RPOs go to the backs or are throws). In the Spring game, he was credited with one rush, which I believe was a sack. I think Ty wants a game plan where he is allowed to drop back and thrown 40 times a game (and I dig that but that isn't a JM game plan). In 22 games as a junior and senior (in the shorter HS game) he averaged 32 pass attempts a game. He did rush about 8 times a game for about 5.3 ypc, so it's something I'm sure he can do, I'm just not sure he wants to, maybe I'm reading too much into it.

I just feel JM (and likely MC) want a 6-2 Jeriamiah Masoli type, who comes into a game wanting to run over people 15 times a game, rather than another Herbert, who he can't run, but who can thrown pinpoint strikes all over the field. Philosophies and all that (I mean of course the perfect QB is great at everything but how many NFL QBs even fit that description). If they are gonna sink or swim with this philosophy, at least get the right kind of pieces in there (I'd suggest one of the possibly underappreciated factors of that Stanford period, they had a lot of guys: tall WRs, rangy TEs, durable RBs, jumbo OL that really fit their thing). Mario wants to play Standford, but with a portal QB with two major leg injuries, a pair of 5-9 RB, a bunch of quick little 5-10 WRs, freshman TEs, and 290 pound walk-on OGs, etc. (and not a single thing against any of those guys are all legit P5 guys, again, just philosophies).

I'm not sure about that because Moorehead doesn't really seem to run an offense like Chip Kelly's that relies on the qb run. I think the only reason they run the option so much right now is because that is what Brown does best. From what I've seen at Penn St he actually likes to air it out more than Chip did so I'm not sure that Ty isn't his style of quarterback. I do agree Ty's is like a tall Veron Adams he can run but he isn't an option quarterback.

I'm far from an expert on Penn State or Mississippi State, but from what I've seen watching 11 games into the JM Oregon era, I don't see much of a vertical passing framework, other than 'taking shots". Pushing the ball down field with pass that travel 10+ yards through the air past the LOS do not seem to be much a part of the offense.

Looking at some numbers, nothing is clear but it's might be considered some evidence in terms of the general thought, (Morehead had Saquon Barkley at RB in 2016 and 2017, so I could argue that he might influence the numbers from that year a bit), but overall:

2016 - Penn State

42% pass 58% rush

QB (McSorley) 14 games 10.4 rushes per game

2017 - Penn State

50% pass 50% rush

QB (McSorley) 13 games 11.1 rushes per game

2018 - Mississippi State

38% pass 62% rush

QB (Fitzgerald) 12 games 18.4 rushes per game

2019 - Mississippi State

36% pass 64% rush

QB (Stevens) 9 games 9.2 rushes per game
QB (Shrader) 10 games 11.3 rushes per game

2020 - Oregon

44% pass 56% rush

QB (Shough) 7 games 9.4 rushes per game

2021 - Oregon

40% pass 60% rush

QB (Brown) 5 games 10.8 rushes per game

For comparison, Masoli probably would be considered a "running QB":

2008 - Oregon

38% pass 62% rush

QB (Masoli) 12 games 10.1 rushes per game

2009 - Oregon

39% pass 61% rush

QB (Masoli) 12 games 10.6 rushes per game

[StevensTechU]

OF4L & Pez-

I'll address the "Ty has a higher ceiling and is probably close to Anthony Brown right now" argument, because I think that's what you both (and most people) are saying. Of course there are some who think he's better even right now, so I guess inherently I'll opine on that, too.

Ty's numbers from the Spring Game through the Arizona game are 11/21 (52%) for 152 yards. He's connected on zero deep balls (54 yarder to Dont'e Thornton was about 15 yards passed the line of scrimmage which Thornton then took the distance). He has zero interceptions but has had 3 "INT-worthy" passes (2 in the spring game, 1 against Stony Brook). We've seen him elude the pass rush but not much for designed runs or improvised rushes (statistically, he has 2 rushes for -3 yards on the season). In high school, he passed for 59% as a senior with far above average WRs (that is to say, drops were not a significant factor).

Compared to Brown, he's actually quite similar. Neither has great accuracy, as Brown 56%) tends to overthrow and Thompson underthrows receivers. We know Brown can make plays with his feet in the RPO game, but that's only when he makes the right reads (good: Fresno and tOSU; bad: Arizona and Stanford), which opens up the playbook. The verdict on Thompson in that regard is still out. An area Brown has excelled in is in taking care of the football. By my unofficial count, he's had 4 INT-worthy passes in 124 attempts. As mentioned above, 3 of Thompson's 21 passes could've/should've been picked.

If I'm being as objective as possible (I'll be very subjective down below in just a moment), I think the observable data says that, if you go with Thompson over Brown going forward, what you get is basically Brown with more turnovers. It doesn't appear that the downfield passing game would change in any material way, nor would the drive-killing inaccurate passes. Because of Brown's ability to run, you probably don't gain anything in the run game unless Thompson proves much better at decision-making in the RPO game (who knows - not enough of a sample size). So if that's accurate - that you get Brown with more turnovers - then I think Cal and Wazzu are still wins, but every other game becomes a question mark, with us being underdogs at UCLA.

Now subjectively, I think you potentially lose more than you gain by replacing Brown with Ty. If we had started Ty against Fresno and tOSU, we lose both of those games. Those would be momentum-killing moments for the program. The same is true going forward. I think if Oregon finishes the season 7-5 instead of 10-2, with losses to washington and Oregon State, that hurts this season and those that follow. College football is a constant "win now" game. Now, does playing Ty now give us a better chance to beat Georgia next season? It doesn't hurt, but where Thompson struggles (accuracy and throwing into coverage) are things he can just as easily work on in practice. I think game time would help with identifying coverage, practicing RPO decisions, and gelling with your OL (which will be different next year). So I think it would help but as the RS Freshman for Alabama showed in the first game against Miami this year, you can get prepared to go by practicing with your team.

What would I do? If I thought Thompson was definitely my #2 QB (not Butterfield or Ashford), I would probably try to get him 2 series per game in competitive football games going forward, and hopefully more against Cal and Wazzu. You get the benefit of getting him game reps without communicating to your team "after 1 loss, we're throwing in the towel on this season."

Sorry for the long post. Also, awesome post by OrTDuck.

[DuckzRule]

I still pray we can win the natty someday, but at this rate it seems unlikely.

[alxtw]

With all the injuries and ejections against stanford, it isn't too surprising that we loss. (In addition to the officiating) Whenever there's something good brewing in Oregon sports, something always comes up to derail it. We just need to continue to recruit and develop elite talent and build our depth. As injuries are a big part of football, only teams with great depth have a chance at a championship every year. ie Alabama, Ohio State (won a championship w/ their third string qb)

[duck023]

OF4L & Pez-

I'll address the "Ty has a higher ceiling and is probably close to Anthony Brown right now" argument, because I think that's what you both (and most people) are saying. Of course there are some who think he's better even right now, so I guess inherently I'll opine on that, too.

Ty's numbers from the Spring Game through the Arizona game are 11/21 (52%) for 152 yards. He's connected on zero deep balls (54 yarder to Dont'e Thornton was about 15 yards passed the line of scrimmage which Thornton then took the distance). He has zero interceptions but has had 3 "INT-worthy" passes (2 in the spring game, 1 against Stony Brook). We've seen him elude the pass rush but not much for designed runs or improvised rushes (statistically, he has 2 rushes for -3 yards on the season). In high school, he passed for 59% as a senior with far above average WRs (that is to say, drops were not a significant factor).

Compared to Brown, he's actually quite similar. Neither has great accuracy, as Brown 56%) tends to overthrow and Thompson underthrows receivers. We know Brown can make plays with his feet in the RPO game, but that's only when he makes the right reads (good: Fresno and tOSU; bad: Arizona and Stanford), which opens up the playbook. The verdict on Thompson in that regard is still out. An area Brown has excelled in is in taking care of the football. By my unofficial count, he's had 4 INT-worthy passes in 124 attempts. As mentioned above, 3 of Thompson's 21 passes could've/should've been picked.

If I'm being as objective as possible (I'll be very subjective down below in just a moment), I think the observable data says that, if you go with Thompson over Brown going forward, what you get is basically Brown with more turnovers. It doesn't appear that the downfield passing game would change in any material way, nor would the drive-killing inaccurate passes. Because of Brown's ability to run, you probably don't gain anything in the run game unless Thompson proves much better at decision-making in the RPO game (who knows - not enough of a sample size). So if that's accurate - that you get Brown with more turnovers - then I think Cal and Wazzu are still wins, but every other game becomes a question mark, with us being underdogs at UCLA.

Now subjectively, I think you potentially lose more than you gain by replacing Brown with Ty. If we had started Ty against Fresno and tOSU, we lose both of those games. Those would be momentum-killing moments for the program. The same is true going forward. I think if Oregon finishes the season 7-5 instead of 10-2, with losses to washington and Oregon State, that hurts this season and those that follow. College football is a constant "win now" game. Now, does playing Ty now give us a better chance to beat Georgia next season? It doesn't hurt, but where Thompson struggles (accuracy and throwing into coverage) are things he can just as easily work on in practice. I think game time would help with identifying coverage, practicing RPO decisions, and gelling with your OL (which will be different next year). So I think it would help but as the RS Freshman for Alabama showed in the first game against Miami this year, you can get prepared to go by practicing with your team.

What would I do? If I thought Thompson was definitely my #2 QB (not Butterfield or Ashford), I would probably try to get him 2 series per game in competitive football games going forward, and hopefully more against Cal and Wazzu. You get the benefit of getting him game reps without communicating to your team "after 1 loss, we're throwing in the towel on this season."

Sorry for the long post. Also, awesome post by OrTDuck.

Ty Thompson can just throw better though. I'm sorry there isn't a stat that shows you the difference between a guy that can throw and a guy that struggles throwing but there isn't. The only time the offense has look decent is in the 2nd half against Stony Brook. Even the Ohio State game was a struggle Oregon had to grind for everything which worked to their advantage because it shortened the game but you can't slow grind against a bad Arizona and Stony Brook team. I mentioned his spring game was horrible and he didn't complete a pass against Arizona but Gilmore who hates us only gave us a compliment when he saw Ty's arm. However the offense has never moved the ball like they have in the 2nd half against Stony Brook and that isn't coincidence. Now you can argue Brown is a better leader and we need his running ability etc but don't try to tell me he is even in the same realm as Thompson's arm.

The thing is Brown is playing the best he can play at 56% while you are taking a horrible Spring game, an Arizona game in which Ty didn't complete any passes(but Gilmore complemented his arm on 3 incompletions but watched a whole game of Brown and didn't say that)for and a Stony Brook game where he played like himself and he is still at 52%. 52% is as low as Ty Thompson's percentage will be while Brown's isn't getting above 60%.

I'm willing to give Brown another chance because I do think he has shown to be a winner but I'm not going to pretend his arm talent is on Ty's level. I'm not going to act like there isn't pros to Ty being the starter especially when it comes to downfield throwing. At the same time though Brown is a great leader and is one of the best running quarter backs so he does have some pros too.

[OrTDuck]

Looking at Moorhead and Mississippi State, I also see it as sorta interesting he took McSorley's back-up at Penn State with him to MSU, in 6-5 and 240 pound (and graduate transfer) Tommy Stevens. Stevens goes on to be named starting QB on August 22, 2019, after Moorhead's first starter, 6-5 230 pound MSU QB Nick Fitzgerald, graduates.

Gonna get that shot as a HC and who do you bring along? A guy who can throw the ball all over the field or a guy who can take a snap and be a bulldozer? Who is your first starting QB? Another giant "dual threat" dude.

I think Stevens is currently trying to be a TE in the NFL for the NY Giants.

Moorhead signs with Oregon and Shough is expected to be the guy - but it is uncertain. Oregon looks at all the portal QBs to bring in. Who does it go after first? 6-4 and 230 pound "dual threat" QB Wake Forest's Jamie Newman, coming off a season he rushed 15 times a game for almost 600 yards and 6 TDs.

[northbeachsf]

I'm more of a Butterfield guy. Although Ty Thompson seems to be the real deal I really like Butterfield too. He is a very accurate thrower and a better runner than people give him credit for.

I am with you on Butters. I know it is an extremely small sample size, but that out he threw in early this year was on a line and moving at a different speed. Dude has an arm.

Bottom line is that we have some very talented QBs on this roster right now.

[buckmarkduck]

What ball should have been INT vs SB? If you are talking the pass to Ferguson, go back and watch it from the angle that shows it’s perfectly placed, and goes right through Terrances hands.

[StevensTechU]

What ball should have been INT vs SB? If you are talking the pass to Ferguson, go back and watch it from the angle that shows it’s perfectly placed, and goes right through Terrances hands.

Can you link to something with multiple angles?

[buckmarkduck]

What ball should have been INT vs SB? If you are talking the pass to Ferguson, go back and watch it from the angle that shows it’s perfectly placed, and goes right through Terrances hands.

Can you link to something with multiple angles?

I’ll see. When they showed the replay from the end zone, it doesn’t get near as close to the defender and you can see it sails right between TF hands. It was places as well as it could be.