Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

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StevensTechU
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by StevensTechU »

This conversation really puts into perspective how many parties probably don't want the Ducks joining the Big10. The LA schools might not want it for competitive reasons. Many Big 10 schools, especially Big 10 West, will have to shell out more money for travel. Schools like Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern move even further into irrelevance.

It's a move that may make sense for the Ducks, but unless they add significant dollars to the TV deal (and there are reports that they don't), the deal may get hung up with too many of the folks currently in the B1G opposing the move.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by DuckzRule »

StevensTechU wrote:This conversation really puts into perspective how many parties probably don't want the Ducks joining the Big10. The LA schools might not want it for competitive reasons. Many Big 10 schools, especially Big 10 West, will have to shell out more money for travel. Schools like Rutgers, Maryland, and Northwestern move even further into irrelevance.

It's a move that may make sense for the Ducks, but unless they add significant dollars to the TV deal (and there are reports that they don't), the deal may get hung up with too many of the folks currently in the B1G opposing the move.
I dunno if I truly want to stay in the Pac or to move to the Big Ten, we should just listen to what the officials will say.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by buckmarkduck »

Everythingsducky wrote:Still not sure I want UO to leave the PAC12. They could end up like Clemson, own the conference, and go to the playoff every year. If Kliavakoff (sp?) can at least get near the financial return with less travel? Would suck if UO goes, and is a middling conference foe in all sports, and takes the school back 30 years. Total gamble.
It’s delusional to think the pac 10 or 12 will be taken seriously without SC. Certainly won’t be the same as Clemson winning the ACC. It would almost be like Boise St and the MWC in the shoves of east coast voters. The Big is our only play, or fall into irrelevancy
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by SuperDuck »

buckmarkduck wrote:
Everythingsducky wrote:Still not sure I want UO to leave the PAC12. They could end up like Clemson, own the conference, and go to the playoff every year. If Kliavakoff (sp?) can at least get near the financial return with less travel? Would suck if UO goes, and is a middling conference foe in all sports, and takes the school back 30 years. Total gamble.
It’s delusional to think the pac 10 or 12 will be taken seriously without SC. Certainly won’t be the same as Clemson winning the ACC. It would almost be like Boise St and the MWC in the shoves of east coast voters. The Big is our only play, or fall into irrelevancy
I'm not sure I agree about that. If this had happened 10-15 years ago I'd definitely agree with you, but much has changed the past several years. Oregon (twice) and UW are the only Pac-12 teams to make the CFP since 2010.

We also have a Heisman Trophy winner in Marcus Mariota, as well as other players who are doing very well in the NFL.

Oregon's football facilities are in the Top-10, maybe Top-5 in the nation. The football team has been to New Year's Day Bowls around half that time and has become a national brand.

Oregon men's basketball has been to an Elite-8 and a Final-4 under Dana Altman, as well as a few Sweet-16's.

Oregon Women's Basketball has been very good to elite since Kelly Graves took over, and had a legitimate shot at a national title during the Covid year cancelation.

The Track and Field program is consistently one of the best in the nation.

Yes, USC and UCLA are located in L.A., but they certainly don't get all the good players from that area.

USC, UCLA and UW have all had success in different sports over the last decade. It's not just "USC and everyone else" anymore. The road to the conference championship regularly goes through Eugene.

USC will always have their history, but history doesn't produce on the scoreboard. Texas hasn't been the same since Mack Brown was fired. Oklahoma is mediocre this year. Nebraska is mediocre or worse.

What I'm saying is that new legacies are being built at Oregon and elsewhere.

In the next couple years the playoffs open up to 12 teams. There'd be one Pac-12 team guaranteed a spot, and maybe two. Personally, I think we may have a better chance of making the playoffs more consistently if Oregon just stays in the Pac-12. The same goes for USC, UCLA and UW.

The grass isn't always greener. As I said, I think we'd be just fine without USC and UCLA.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by buckmarkduck »

When every school in every other major conference is making a minimum of 20mill a year more than UO. I think we will understand that we missed the boat by staying in the pac/MWC.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by ducks5ever »

buckmarkduck wrote:When every school in every other major conference is making a minimum of 20mill a year more than UO. I think we will understand that we missed the boat by staying in the pac/MWC.
^ exactly. the numbers don't lie, and its the numbers on the media deal that matter.

You can be at the top of your game but if you get significantly less capital to reinvestment into your program in comparison to your competition, you'll fall behind and thats pretty much guaranteed.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by DuckzRule »

I don't understand why people want us to stay in the Pac-12 apart from us having an easier path to the playoffs there, but it's seriously a sinking ship, I hope the official announcement is made soon.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by pezsez1 »

I see the biggest downfall of not getting into the B1G is that we'll always be a stepping stone program for coaches. No matter how good we are each year, we'll always have to worry about our coaches getting poached by schools with deeper pockets. (Not even better programs with more wins or prestige, but simply more money.)

We're somewhat insulated by that for the time being thanks to Uncle Phil, but unless Nike has some sort of secret cybernetic division then we can't count on Unc as a long-term solution. I'm sure he's set up some kind of trust to make sure donations to the University continue, but it definitely won't be the same, and whoever takes over the family's coffers won't have the same degree of attachment.

That said, all isn't lost if we don't move to the B1G. We've shown it's possible to recruit at a high level and make quality hires, and NIL is a bit of a game changer because it's arguably becoming more about how much players can be paid rather than coaching staffs. (Although Knight probably gives us a huge boost there, too.)

If we do move to the B1G then making the playoff probably gets significantly more difficult. If we stay, then I do think we'd be viewed more like Clemson than Boise State. Oregon has a powerful brand and tons of national respect. We're the top program on the entire West Coast with a massive national following. To compare us to Boise State is really self-defeating and unnecessary. Nobody else who is serious about college football would ever think that.

I also think we should have a little faith in our new conference commish. He definitely won't get B1G/SEC money, but let's see what he can work out potentially with streaming. Let's also see what he does re: revenue sharing within the conference. The days of upper-echelon teams getting the same profit shares as lower-tier teams are probably over.

I don't trust Slick Rick's sources on this. I trust the numbers put forth by guys like Jon Wilner who hasn't spent the past few months flooding the zone with hot takes. The numbers show there are no compelling reasons for the B1G to take us right now (or ever), and the recent announcement of the upcoming 12-team playoff structure really gutted the threat of playoff access being limited to just two super conferences. So, not only does the B1G not need us, but we no longer really need the B1G.

I expect the remaining Pac teams will stay together and possibly expand with San Diego State. And I also believe our football program will be fine.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by DuckzRule »

I saw someone claiming the official news regarding us and Washington could come this week.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Jesseisabeast »

Imagine this year as an example without UCLA and SC. We’d try to schedule a big non-conference game to garner some respect and with a loss would be impossible to climb very high with weak opponents remaining……and then with a budget falling 25 million short of the competition any coach that proves a winner will get poached immediately for double the pay.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by webfoots2001 »

DuckzRule wrote:I saw someone claiming the official news regarding us and Washington could come this week.
Same source as the other 20 times you’ve “seen someone say” something since this thread began?
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by squintsdd »

DuckzRule wrote:I saw someone claiming the official news regarding us and Washington could come this week.
I saw someone claim the B1G isn't looking to expand anymore at this time
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by pezsez1 »

Imagine this year as an example without UCLA and SC. We’d try to schedule a big non-conference game to garner some respect and with a loss would be impossible to climb very high with weak opponents remaining……and then with a budget falling 25 million short of the competition any coach that proves a winner will get poached immediately for double the pay.
This is an interesting take. I do think the big obstacle here is retaining coaches, because no amount of branding will overcome at $25 million annual disparity.

That said, I could easily see the Ducks still ranked highly without the UCLA or SC games. They haven't been ranked most years and the Ducks have been fine. Utah would possibly be a Top 10 team right now without a UCLA loss and we'd get them at home later this year. So the sky isn't falling on that front... the Ducks are good, I'm confident they'll stay good, and the rankings will be fine.

Expanding to the 12-team playoff is HUGE for teams left out of the B1G and SEC. The other massive factor is NIL, and I'm honestly surprised this is being so overlooked. Players are not going to choose schools based on coaching salaries, they're going to choose based on their salaries. ;) (a.k.a. "name, image & likeness deals.")

Even if the Ducks are having to replace coaches every 3-5 years, they'll still have facilities, a fairly stacked roster, good branding, and great NIL infrastructure (and I'm confident that will continue after Uncle Phil passes).

The annual income disparity will definitely be a problem, but I really do think the Ducks are uniquely positioned to remain a recruiting powerhouse and a playoff contender -- and that's ultimately what matters most.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by Duck07 »

Jesseisabeast wrote:Imagine this year as an example without UCLA and SC. We’d try to schedule a big non-conference game to garner some respect and with a loss would be impossible to climb very high with weak opponents remaining……and then with a budget falling 25 million short of the competition any coach that proves a winner will get poached immediately for double the pay.
This is the most nationally relevant that UCLA has been this millennium. You have to go to 1998 to find them in a Top 5 ranking (Oregon was ranked 11th btw). Using UCLA as an example of a team that we might not play would in any given year actually help our OOC.

I also don't think all of that TV money is going all directly to the FB coach either but other programs, facilities, staff and here's the kicker with hiring a coach from Oregon to an absurd deal - you now find yourself on the hook for an even more exorbitant sum of money if said coach doesn't pan out. Further, with NIL it keeps us a major player for recruits.

Phil is the 27th wealthiest person on the planet and I think the next round of TV deals after this current period is going to end the whole "Conference as a whole" broadcast rights and instead focus on individual schools. Fox knows how dumb it is to pay Rutgers and Maryland the same purse as Michigan and Ohio State and the Networks and Conferences can tell the schools to take it or leave it (for the Mountain West, Mid-American, Southwestern...). They'll still angle for Conference Championship games and rivalries, but I think you'll see Networks target schools eventually as the Streaming Platforms get involved.

The B1G for example likely would require that Oregon and UW get more serious about Men's AND Women's Hockey (for Title IX I also think to add another Men's program we have to add another Women's since enrollment is in favor of females.) Who really thinks that College Hockey is going to drive these TV deals? Frankly, with the current understanding of the CFP format, I think Oregon would be fine in a watered-down Pac because nothing about any of what's going on will lead to any long-term stability.
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Re: Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

Post by pezsez1 »

I'd also like to throw in that I'd LOVE for the Pac-12 to go all-in with a streaming partner like Amazon Prime. Anything to hasten the end of cable deals as they are today would be fantastic.

The Thursday night NFL games have been doing great on Amazon Prime and it's a stunningly beautiful broadcast product.
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