MBB C Ware transferring

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dthomas=ddixon
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MBB C Ware transferring

Post by dthomas=ddixon »

UOducksTK1 wrote:Miami is a good example of this, they lost 5 transfers in 2021 (3 which were top 90 prospects). You'd think with numbers like that, they couldn't compete.

But they have four players averaging 13ppg or more.
1 transferred in 2021 from George Mason to Miami.
1 transferred in 2022 from Kansas State to Miami.
1 transferred in 2022 from Arkansas State to Miami.
1 was a 4 year Junior.

The reality is you don't need guys on your roster for 3-4 years. It's a false prerequisite. Would it help? Yes. Is it necessary? No. Getting the right transfers is everything.

(6 of Miami's top 7 scorers had not been on their roster for more than 1 season going into this season.)

EDIT: For fun, I checked San Diego State and their top 5 scorers, 3 of them never played a season at San Diego State before this year. And 1 of them had played only one season with San Diego State before.
I’d have to see a full roster analysis of the consistently top programs before being convinced that revamping your entire team every season through the portal is a sustainable strategy. As well as see any of these teams you’re referencing do so for more than 1-2 seasons.

And besides, when has Altman ever brought in a group of transfers that could even sniff what Miami’s transfers have done? Kind of ridiculous to point to an anomaly and argue that we should just start doing that.
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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by UOducksTK1 »

dthomas=ddixon wrote:
UOducksTK1 wrote:Miami is a good example of this, they lost 5 transfers in 2021 (3 which were top 90 prospects). You'd think with numbers like that, they couldn't compete.

But they have four players averaging 13ppg or more.
1 transferred in 2021 from George Mason to Miami.
1 transferred in 2022 from Kansas State to Miami.
1 transferred in 2022 from Arkansas State to Miami.
1 was a 4 year Junior.

The reality is you don't need guys on your roster for 3-4 years. It's a false prerequisite. Would it help? Yes. Is it necessary? No. Getting the right transfers is everything.

(6 of Miami's top 7 scorers had not been on their roster for more than 1 season going into this season.)

EDIT: For fun, I checked San Diego State and their top 5 scorers, 3 of them never played a season at San Diego State before this year. And 1 of them had played only one season with San Diego State before.
I’d have to see a full roster analysis of the consistently top programs before being convinced that revamping your entire team every season through the portal is a sustainable strategy. As well as see any of these teams you’re referencing do so for more than 1-2 seasons.

And besides, when has Altman ever brought in a group of transfers that could even sniff what Miami’s transfers have done? Kind of ridiculous to point to an anomaly and argue that we should just start doing that.
You are missing the point. You don't need guys on your roster for 3-4 years to win championships. And it's also very hard to do. Look at the Pac-12, half the teams have more roster turnover than Oregon the last 5 years. So sure, having guys around for 3+ year is a factor in being successful. But I personally wouldn't put it as a top 5 factor, especially where you can get guys with 4-5 years of experience in the transfer portal.

Who we land this offseason as transfers to me will be the #1 factor whether or not we have a successful season. If we get guards and forwards who are 28%, 29% and 33% 3point shooters (Couinard, Guerrier, and Soares) we aren't going to win.

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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by UOducksTK1 »

buckmarkduck wrote:
None of those other schools have landed 5* and also done nothing with them. They a losing 3*, who didn’t deserve a scholarship in the first place. And that been my frustration
There's some truth in this. Oregon has had more 5 stars than the majority of the Pac-12, and it's been hard to keep them around. But I also feel like the majority of our 5 stars have worked out decently. Walker was only transfer. Bol Bol got hurt, otherwise he was fantastic. The rest were all productive and did good things for us.

2015:
Tyler Dorsey #28

2017:
Troy Brown #13

2018:
Bol Bol #4
Louis King #20

2019:
N'Faly Dante #14
CJ Walker #28

2021:
Nathan Bittle #28

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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by droop10 »

UOducksTK1 wrote:
buckmarkduck wrote:
None of those other schools have landed 5* and also done nothing with them. They a losing 3*, who didn’t deserve a scholarship in the first place. And that been my frustration
There's some truth in this. Oregon has had more 5 stars than the majority of the Pac-12, and it's been hard to keep them around. But I also feel like the majority of our 5 stars have worked out decently. Walker was only transfer. Bol Bol got hurt, otherwise he was fantastic. The rest were all productive and did good things for us.

2015:
Tyler Dorsey #28

2017:
Troy Brown #13

2018:
Bol Bol #4
Louis King #20

2019:
N'Faly Dante #14
CJ Walker #28

2021:
Nathan Bittle #28
Yeah, I don't see this overarching 5 star problem, because 1-2 guys didn't pan out. There are always going to be busts. CJ Walker transferred to be closer to family during the pandemic, so that was completely unavoidable. Plus, it's not like he has torn it up at UCF. He was a guy that was overrated in terms of stars strictly due to his athleticism. Ware is the exception, not the rule, and I really do think it was just a matter of effort for him. If he didn't want to put in the work to improve and stay at Oregon, then so be it.

You can't call Bol, King, and Brown leaving for the NBA a knock against Altman. This was before NIL, and very few guys are going to turn out a shot at millions to stick around and play another year. From what I recall reading, there was never a chance King would stay, regardless of his draft status. He was just going to school for the year out of obligation before trying his hand at the league.
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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by northbeachsf »

I saw a stat on twitter today that only 63% of 5* recruits eventually get drafted. I think there is this fan perception that 5* recruits are going to come in and dominate college ball their first year, but that is just not the case most of the time. It takes most players time to adjust to college. This happens everywhere and not just at Oregon. Here are a couple examples:

Love is a 5* at UNC. He just finished his third year shooting 29% from three and has a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio. Not good. Now he is in the portal.

Collins is a 5* at Kentucky. He averaged 1.9 PPG this year. Not as good as Ware.

Think about this. In the last 900 NBA draft picks, only 445 of them were Top 100 recruits. So that means there is an equal number of Top 100 recruits and Non-Top 100 recruits getting drafted each year.

Evaluating high school talent and not looking at stars is critical.
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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

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northbeachsf wrote:I saw a stat on twitter today that only 63% of 5* recruits eventually get drafted. I think there is this fan perception that 5* recruits are going to come in and dominate college ball their first year, but that is just not the case most of the time. It takes most players time to adjust to college. This happens everywhere and not just at Oregon. Here are a couple examples:

Love is a 5* at UNC. He just finished his third year shooting 29% from three and has a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio. Not good. Now he is in the portal.

Collins is a 5* at Kentucky. He averaged 1.9 PPG this year. Not as good as Ware.

Think about this. In the last 900 NBA draft picks, only 445 of them were Top 100 recruits. So that means there is an equal number of Top 100 recruits and Non-Top 100 recruits getting drafted each year.

Evaluating high school talent and not looking at stars is critical.
Well there’s 26 5 stars in each class.
110 4 stars.
200 3 stars.
10000 2/1/Unranked.

And there’s 60 only picks in a draft.

So ya only:
17 of 26 five stars get drafted.
13 of 110 four stars get drafted.

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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by dthomas=ddixon »

UOducksTK1 wrote:
dthomas=ddixon wrote:
UOducksTK1 wrote:Miami is a good example of this, they lost 5 transfers in 2021 (3 which were top 90 prospects). You'd think with numbers like that, they couldn't compete.

But they have four players averaging 13ppg or more.
1 transferred in 2021 from George Mason to Miami.
1 transferred in 2022 from Kansas State to Miami.
1 transferred in 2022 from Arkansas State to Miami.
1 was a 4 year Junior.

The reality is you don't need guys on your roster for 3-4 years. It's a false prerequisite. Would it help? Yes. Is it necessary? No. Getting the right transfers is everything.

(6 of Miami's top 7 scorers had not been on their roster for more than 1 season going into this season.)

EDIT: For fun, I checked San Diego State and their top 5 scorers, 3 of them never played a season at San Diego State before this year. And 1 of them had played only one season with San Diego State before.
I’d have to see a full roster analysis of the consistently top programs before being convinced that revamping your entire team every season through the portal is a sustainable strategy. As well as see any of these teams you’re referencing do so for more than 1-2 seasons.

And besides, when has Altman ever brought in a group of transfers that could even sniff what Miami’s transfers have done? Kind of ridiculous to point to an anomaly and argue that we should just start doing that.
You are missing the point. You don't need guys on your roster for 3-4 years to win championships. And it's also very hard to do. Look at the Pac-12, half the teams have more roster turnover than Oregon the last 5 years. So sure, having guys around for 3+ year is a factor in being successful. But I personally wouldn't put it as a top 5 factor, especially where you can get guys with 4-5 years of experience in the transfer portal.

Who we land this offseason as transfers to me will be the #1 factor whether or not we have a successful season. If we get guards and forwards who are 28%, 29% and 33% 3point shooters (Couinard, Guerrier, and Soares) we aren't going to win.
I don’t think I am. My initial post was that quality programs figure out how to keep their talent in order to sustain success. You’ve shown that most of the conference has had a ton of transfers but they’ve also been mediocre over that period of time so it doesn’t refute my point.

Miami and SDSU making one tourney run a piece with a lineup made up of transfers doesn’t refute my point either. It just proves that it’s possible.

And from an Oregon point of view, Dana has never gotten elite transfers and also struggles immensely to have his team on track to start the season. Rebuilding the roster every offseason only feeds into that weakness. The times where we’ve had sustained success were when we kept a core of quality players around for a few years. It’s self evident that if you have great players and keep them you’ll sustain success. Of course, adding proven high level players to that core of players will only help, but relying on getting an entire lineup of high level players every single season is the most difficult path to sustained success.


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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by UOducksTK1 »

Kentucky final four teams:
2010
2011
2013
2014

Almost all their top players had 0 years previously with Kentucky or 1 year previously.

I could spend my time gathering tons of data but no point. You clearly don’t need 3-4 year players to be successful, it’s a false prerequisite that you made up.

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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by UOducksTK1 »

Ok I lied, I gave in, I checked in last season and 50% or more of teams are made up of transfers or freshmen/sophomores:

Let’s look at last years final four:
Kansas/Villanova, mostly all starters for 2+years
North Carolina/Duke had majority of their players with little to no experience.

-North Carolina, 3 of their top 5 scorers had little to no experience at UNC (2 had 0 years of experience, 1 had 1 year of experience)
-Duke, 4 of their top 5 scorers had little to no experience at Duke (3 had 0 years of experience, 1 had 1 year of experience)


Also this year’s final four had two teams made up of mostly no past experience on their teams. Also FAU, ironically, 3 of their top 4 scorers had only been on the team one year previously. (2 sophomores and a freshman).

So really three of this years final 4 teams has almost NO player with 3 years or more experience doing a bulk of the contributing.

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MBB C Ware transferring

Post by dthomas=ddixon »

UOducksTK1 wrote:Kentucky final four teams:
2010
2011
2013
2014

Almost all their top players had 0 years previously with Kentucky or 1 year previously.

I could spend my time gathering tons of data but no point. You clearly don’t need 3-4 year players to be successful, it’s a false prerequisite that you made up.
What do those teams have to do with using the transfer portal to build a team? Kentucky was recruiting at a previously unprecedented level during those seasons. If your point is that bringing in 4-5 top 10 recruits every season results in winning then I agree but that’s obviously not happening here.

I’ll concede that it’s possible to assemble highly competitive teams through the portal but I don’t believe it’s sustainable if you’re having to do it every single season. We’ve been doing that since day 1 with Altman and that obviously increases our chances of failure. Whether players get here via the portal or recruiting I don’t think matters, but having them be here for only 6 months and having to replace them every single season is simply increasing the difficulty of roster building.


EDIT: Just saw your second post above but have essentially the same response. Clearly you’ve proven it’s possible to assemble a team from scratch and make a run. What I’m highly skeptical of is that it’s a sustainable strategy. The chances of assembling a top flight roster every single season from scratch is extremely difficult. If Miami or SDSU or FAU lose most of their roster this off-season the chances of them putting together a similarly talented roster with another batch of transfers is extremely unlikely. If they keep their current players for the next 1-2 seasons it would actually be odd if they weren’t as good in those seasons.
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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by UOducksTK1 »

I guess time will tell!

I will say this, I would have agreed to your more traditional approach before the transfer portal became available to all with no sitting out a year requirements. But now, you have such a high quality of players entering the portal, no shame in using the portal to create championship caliber teams. And frankly, there’s nothing to say that this won’t be the new standard.

If the free agent market is amazing, why build through the draft? Ya know?

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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by dthomas=ddixon »

UOducksTK1 wrote:I guess time will tell!

I will say this, I would have agreed to your more traditional approach before the transfer portal became available to all with no sitting out a year requirements. But now, you have such a high quality of players entering the portal, no shame in using the portal to create championship caliber teams. And frankly, there’s nothing to say that this won’t be the new standard.

If the free agent market is amazing, why build through the draft? Ya know?
For sure. We’d be dumb not utilize the portal to bring in top flight players, just like the football program does. And the way things are going we may not have a choice in the future.

Altman has just been failing on both fronts recently so if we can pick one and excel at it I’ll be happy.
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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by OregonFan4Life »

Not sure if this is the place to post this but I’ve never understood Altman’s short leash with 5 star talented freshmen like Ware but his long leash for bad transfer guards like Elijah Brown and Jacob Young when they’re legitimately hurting the team. That probably contributes largely to players like Ware transferring.
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Re: MBB C Ware transferring

Post by duck92 »

I think it because Ware didn't play hard and looked disinterested at best. Also, he had better players than Ware, I'm not sure if that's the case with Brown and Young.
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