What’s Wrong with Oregon Men’s Bball?

[northbeachsf]

Lack of depth, shooting ability, and injuries at the guard position are the main issue. I read recently that this group is responsible for the lowest three-point season shooting percentage in program history. That's something right there. We had some pretty bad teams in the late 80s and early 90s when I was in school. As Altman said in one of his press conferences, we have a lot of shot takers, but not a lot of shot makers.

I expect a complete overhaul at the guard position going into next season. We picked up a good shooter in transfer guard Jadrian Tracey yesterday. He shot 43% from three last season and 47%+ from the floor. Hopefully that translates over, but for sure a step in the right direction in improving our scoring ability from the guard position.

Chicken and egg, a little bit. The lack of motion in the offense means guys are taking contested and rushed shots, and obviously not hitting shots is ruining spacing. There are a few guys on the roster that one would've projected better play out of (Soares, Williams) but in his offense are playing dreadful. So I don't think it's just "talent."

I'll take the bait. Soares, Guerrier, and Couisnard have always been below average shooters. Soares shot 34% from three in a JC league. Couisnard was a streaky, volume shooter that shot 37% from the floor and 30% from three for 3 years at South Carolina. Guerrier shot 26% from three while at Syracuse. That trio makes up the lions share of the starts this year at the guard / small forward position with Richardson and not a single one of them can consistently make an impact from the perimeter or even with their so-called midrange game.

And its not like Rigsby (37% at JC) or Barthelemy (33% at Colorado) were that much better from outside. The real head-scratcher IMO is Williams. That guy was scoring in bunches at the JC level with good shooting percentages. Maybe he just sat for so long, it is taking some time to get the rust knocked off? He had a nice NIT game the other night against Irvine.

This group was below average to average at best when they came in, so we honestly should have expected this to some extent.

[UOducksTK1]

And also Ware/Bittle are also not your stereotypical strong, inside scoring big men. They are quick on their feet, and are good shooters. Their style of play is more like forwards.

The reality of the situation is simple. Our guard and forward play is the least talent group we’ve ever had under DA. This will change soon with recruiting (look at next class), and I’m confident DA will be better at what transfers he brings in.

I love this discussion. TK, I think you were building on the previous post, so I’m responding here.

Agreed that we haven’t had the guard and SF talent we’re used to since Duerte graduated. I’m also wondering, though, if Altman hasn’t found a way to utilize the talent our current roster has. Like the previous poster highlighted, Dante gives us a legit post presence on offense, and Altman is willing to run plays for him. That, on the surface sounds like a good thing. But…

The spacing hasn’t worked. What made Altman’s offense unique for years was the high post pinwheel (think Dillon Brooks) that allowed for vertical cuts and low post screens. With a big on the block, the lane is clogged and our offense becomes reliant on perimeter screens and ISO down low. We’ve not had the shooters to do make that shift work. In the Wooten/Bell years, they were there explicitly for oops and slop. And they rarely camped out within their range. I totally understand why Altman wants to run 5v5 on offense, it just seems like we went way from what was working. Feels like Chip running a QB under center. More isn’t always better.

The previous poster asked what, beyond the plus offensive game, the difference is between Dante and Bell/Wooten. To me, a few things. Bell/Wooten, with incredible agility, made great use of narrow lanes and hang time to block/alter shots and snag boards. Dante plays a much more stationary post. He needs to start there to end there. On defense, that’s translated well, but on offense, we’ve seen fewer driving lanes for the guards, leading to too many contested 3’s. Bell/Wooten could start a play on the perimeter, keeping the lane open, and when a shot goes up, crash and pull down an offensive board. They could pick and roll with the best of them. They got bullied on occasion when we played teams with strong 7fters, but they just as often frustrated opposing bigs with great footwork and quick hands and could rotate across anyone on the perimeter. I just wonder if that feels too mid-major to Altman and he’s stubbornly moved away from what got him here.

In short, previously, Altman couldn’t play big without one and he’d showed a much better ability to scheme around size mismatches, utilizing lean, athletic bigs than he has to run a low post offense with a C on the block.


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I don't disagree with most of this. Ironically though, statistically this is the best rebounding team we've had since 2012 and the best shot blocking team since 2016.

But yes, creating lanes, opens the door for outside shots and also causes defense to be out of position for rebounding as well. But we don't have shooters and we don't have penetrators. So we suffer..

[UOducksTK1]

Lack of depth, shooting ability, and injuries at the guard position are the main issue. I read recently that this group is responsible for the lowest three-point season shooting percentage in program history. That's something right there. We had some pretty bad teams in the late 80s and early 90s when I was in school. As Altman said in one of his press conferences, we have a lot of shot takers, but not a lot of shot makers.

I expect a complete overhaul at the guard position going into next season. We picked up a good shooter in transfer guard Jadrian Tracey yesterday. He shot 43% from three last season and 47%+ from the floor. Hopefully that translates over, but for sure a step in the right direction in improving our scoring ability from the guard position.

Chicken and egg, a little bit. The lack of motion in the offense means guys are taking contested and rushed shots, and obviously not hitting shots is ruining spacing. There are a few guys on the roster that one would've projected better play out of (Soares, Williams) but in his offense are playing dreadful. So I don't think it's just "talent."

I'll take the bait. Soares, Guerrier, and Couisnard have always been below average shooters. Soares shot 34% from three in a JC league. Couisnard was a streaky, volume shooter that shot 37% from the floor and 30% from three for 3 years at South Carolina. Guerrier shot 26% from three while at Syracuse. That trio makes up the lions share of the starts this year at the guard / small forward position with Richardson and not a single one of them can consistently make an impact from the perimeter or even with their so-called midrange game.

And its not like Rigsby (37% at JC) or Barthelemy (33% at Colorado) were that much better from outside. The real head-scratcher IMO is Williams. That guy was scoring in bunches at the JC level with good shooting percentages. Maybe he just sat for so long, it is taking some time to get the rust knocked off? He had a nice NIT game the other night against Irvine.

This group was below average to average at best when they came in, so we honestly should have expected this to some extent.

Couldn't agree more. The guys Altman recruited couldn't shoot before they came here. Truly, his recruiting should carry a significant portion of the blame.

This season the worst 3pt shooting percentage since 1999. And last year's 3point shooting was the worst (minus one other season) since 1999 as well...

If anything, Altman's coaching should be applauded for getting this team to 21 wins.

[droop10]

Lack of depth, shooting ability, and injuries at the guard position are the main issue. I read recently that this group is responsible for the lowest three-point season shooting percentage in program history. That's something right there. We had some pretty bad teams in the late 80s and early 90s when I was in school. As Altman said in one of his press conferences, we have a lot of shot takers, but not a lot of shot makers.

I expect a complete overhaul at the guard position going into next season. We picked up a good shooter in transfer guard Jadrian Tracey yesterday. He shot 43% from three last season and 47%+ from the floor. Hopefully that translates over, but for sure a step in the right direction in improving our scoring ability from the guard position.

Chicken and egg, a little bit. The lack of motion in the offense means guys are taking contested and rushed shots, and obviously not hitting shots is ruining spacing. There are a few guys on the roster that one would've projected better play out of (Soares, Williams) but in his offense are playing dreadful. So I don't think it's just "talent."

I'll take the bait. Soares, Guerrier, and Couisnard have always been below average shooters. Soares shot 34% from three in a JC league. Couisnard was a streaky, volume shooter that shot 37% from the floor and 30% from three for 3 years at South Carolina. Guerrier shot 26% from three while at Syracuse. That trio makes up the lions share of the starts this year at the guard / small forward position with Richardson and not a single one of them can consistently make an impact from the perimeter or even with their so-called midrange game.

And its not like Rigsby (37% at JC) or Barthelemy (33% at Colorado) were that much better from outside. The real head-scratcher IMO is Williams. That guy was scoring in bunches at the JC level with good shooting percentages. Maybe he just sat for so long, it is taking some time to get the rust knocked off? He had a nice NIT game the other night against Irvine.

This group was below average to average at best when they came in, so we honestly should have expected this to some extent.

Williams is hard to explain. The first time I saw his shot form, I cringed. I have no idea how he hit such a high percentage of threes in JC. Its such a small sample at Oregon (only 9 three attempts) that it's hard to really speak to whether that will carry over. He could just be one of those guys that has an ugly shot, but makes it work. His free throw percentages have always been bad, and seem more emblematic of his shot form, so he's a confusing prospect for me. He does seem to have a good ability to get to the rim, so curious to see how he does next season. We've seen a number of JC guys that take a year or so to get acclimated to D1 ball.

[GrandpaDuck]

Lack of depth, shooting ability, and injuries at the guard position are the main issue. I read recently that this group is responsible for the lowest three-point season shooting percentage in program history. That's something right there. We had some pretty bad teams in the late 80s and early 90s when I was in school. As Altman said in one of his press conferences, we have a lot of shot takers, but not a lot of shot makers.

I expect a complete overhaul at the guard position going into next season. We picked up a good shooter in transfer guard Jadrian Tracey yesterday. He shot 43% from three last season and 47%+ from the floor. Hopefully that translates over, but for sure a step in the right direction in improving our scoring ability from the guard position.

Chicken and egg, a little bit. The lack of motion in the offense means guys are taking contested and rushed shots, and obviously not hitting shots is ruining spacing. There are a few guys on the roster that one would've projected better play out of (Soares, Williams) but in his offense are playing dreadful. So I don't think it's just "talent."

I'll take the bait. Soares, Guerrier, and Couisnard have always been below average shooters. Soares shot 34% from three in a JC league. Couisnard was a streaky, volume shooter that shot 37% from the floor and 30% from three for 3 years at South Carolina. Guerrier shot 26% from three while at Syracuse. That trio makes up the lions share of the starts this year at the guard / small forward position with Richardson and not a single one of them can consistently make an impact from the perimeter or even with their so-called midrange game.

And its not like Rigsby (37% at JC) or Barthelemy (33% at Colorado) were that much better from outside. The real head-scratcher IMO is Williams. That guy was scoring in bunches at the JC level with good shooting percentages. Maybe he just sat for so long, it is taking some time to get the rust knocked off? He had a nice NIT game the other night against Irvine.

This group was below average to average at best when they came in, so we honestly should have expected this to some extent.

Williams is hard to explain. The first time I saw his shot form, I cringed. I have no idea how he hit such a high percentage of threes in JC. Its such a small sample at Oregon (only 9 three attempts) that it's hard to really speak to whether that will carry over. He could just be one of those guys that has an ugly shot, but makes it work. His free throw percentages have always been bad, and seem more emblematic of his shot form, so he's a confusing prospect for me. He does seem to have a good ability to get to the rim, so curious to see how he does next season. We've seen a number of JC guys that take a year or so to get acclimated to D1 ball.

northbeachsf and droop10 are witches and stole my posts telepathically. Tk, Make them stop.

[StevensTechU]

I was looking at our shooters' 3pt percentages this year compared to last year to get a sense of how much crappy overall offense may have affected them-

Richardson: 33.8% (-5%)
Guerrier: 35.5% (+2.8%)
Soares: 25.0% (-9.5% since JC, -1.8% since last year)
Barthelemy: 36.3% (+1.6%)
Williams: 22.2% on a whopping nine attempts (-21.3% since JC)
Rigsby: 27.7% (-9.3% from JC)
Couisnard: 33.0% (+0.7%)

Somewhat mixed results. The point that that these guys aren't great shooters to begin with is well taken. On top of that, a bunch of guys aren't exactly reaching their potential in this year's offense.

[northbeachsf]

Wow. Last night was painful. Perfect combo of poor offense and even worse perimeter and FT shooting.

[buckmarkduck]

Altman went away from the type of players that carried him for years. There haven’t been any Joe Young’s, Bell, Brooks or Cooks since the final 4 team . He started star chasing, and stopped evaluating and bring in int his type of players. He found a rail thing Boucher, and turned him into a stud, instead now he lands Wares who don’t care enough to play hard. They have had everything handed to them since 4th grade, and don’t know what it’s like to fight like a dog over a steak in an alleyway.

[Alan]

Altman went away from the type of players that carried him for years. There haven’t been any Joe Young’s, Bell, Brooks or Cooks since the final 4 team . He started star chasing, and stopped evaluating and bring in int his type of players. He found a rail thing Boucher, and turned him into a stud, instead now he lands Wares who don’t care enough to play hard. They have had everything handed to them since 4th grade, and don’t know what it’s like to fight like a dog over a steak in an alleyway.

^^^ this! One and done players who don’t care about a year in college have lost the fans.

[dthomas=ddixon]

The last two seasons our teams have been very poorly constructed, as others in this and the NIT thread have pointed out.

I’d love to know what changed for Altman; he’s clearly gone away from what used to bring him so much success. Despite the 5*s our recruiting has actually been very average and are a huge reason why the team is lacking talent. We’ve been getting 1 major recruiting and a bunch of filler in recent classes and the result is this bizarre roster with THREE 5* posts and a bunch of very mediocre wings and guards.

I’ve never loved Altman’s overhaul of the roster every season but in the past he at least seemed to have a plan. Recently it’s like he just grabs whoever he can out of the portal and hopes it all magically comes together. If you’re going to align rubix cubes you still need the correct pieces to do so.

[rockthief]

Altman went away from the type of players that carried him for years. There haven’t been any Joe Young’s, Bell, Brooks or Cooks since the final 4 team . He started star chasing, and stopped evaluating and bring in int his type of players. He found a rail thing Boucher, and turned him into a stud, instead now he lands Wares who don’t care enough to play hard. They have had everything handed to them since 4th grade, and don’t know what it’s like to fight like a dog over a steak in an alleyway.

^^^ this! One and done players who don’t care about a year in college have lost the fans.

The worst case of what these two posts illustrate is that we have so many players who do not seem to care and who expect to win with individual talent alone. Altman might be tired and so are we fans. It is difficult to support and cheer for players who lack team cohesiveness.

[OregonFan4Life]

Altman went away from the type of players that carried him for years. There haven’t been any Joe Young’s, Bell, Brooks or Cooks since the final 4 team . He started star chasing, and stopped evaluating and bring in int his type of players. He found a rail thing Boucher, and turned him into a stud, instead now he lands Wares who don’t care enough to play hard. They have had everything handed to them since 4th grade, and don’t know what it’s like to fight like a dog over a steak in an alleyway.

^^^ this! One and done players who don’t care about a year in college have lost the fans.

The worst case of what these two posts illustrate is that we have so many players who do not seem to care and who expect to win with individual talent alone. Altman might be tired and so are we fans. It is difficult to support and cheer for players who lack team cohesiveness.

Part of me wonders if Altman might be retiring soon, he just doesn’t seem to enjoy coaching.

I still think Condoleeza Rice’s suggestion is best for college basketball, where high schoolers can go either straight to the pros or to college, but if they go to college they have to be in college for 3 years, just like football.

[UOducksTK1]

Altman went away from the type of players that carried him for years. There haven’t been any Joe Young’s, Bell, Brooks or Cooks since the final 4 team . He started star chasing, and stopped evaluating and bring in int his type of players. He found a rail thing Boucher, and turned him into a stud, instead now he lands Wares who don’t care enough to play hard. They have had everything handed to them since 4th grade, and don’t know what it’s like to fight like a dog over a steak in an alleyway.

^^^ this! One and done players who don’t care about a year in college have lost the fans.

I mean obviously we haven't recruited a Joe Young, Bell, Brooks or Cook in a while... But putting the blame on 'we are recruiting a bunch of one and dones' is a false narrative.

2014:
Dillon Brooks #59
Jordan Bell #100
Ahmaad Rorie #117
Michael Chandler (3 star JC)
Dwayne Benjamin (3 star JC)
Casey Benson #193
Roman Sorkin NR

2015:
Tyler Dorsey #28
Trevor Manuel #112
Kendall Small #113
Chris Boucher (4 star JC)

2016:
Pritchard #54
MJ Cage #99
Keith Smith #104

2017:
Troy Brown #13
Victor Bailey #86
Kenny Wooten #129
Abu Kigab #140

2018:
Bol Bol #4
Louis King #20
Will Richardson #46
Francis Okoro #56
Miles Norris #74

2019:
N'Faly Dante #14
CJ Walker #28
Addison Patterson #42
Isaac Johnson #74
Chandler Lawson #95
Chris Duarte (3 star JC)
Lok Wur #467

2020:
Franck Kepnang #36
Jalen Terry #80

2021:
Nathan Bittle #28
Rivalo Soares (3 star JC)


If you look at our biggest disappointments/transfers:
Francis Okoro #56
Miles Norris #74
CJ Walker #28
Addison Patterson #42
Isaac Johnson #74
Chandler Lawson #95
Franck Kepnang #36
Jalen Terry #80
Victor Bailey #86
Abu Kigab #140
MJ Cage #99
Keith Smith #104
Trevor Manuel #112
Kendall Small #113
Ahmaad Rorie #117
Michael Chandler (3 star JC)

You'll see that none of them were 5 stars except CJ Walker (Who was a fringe 5 star, and a 4 star no other sites). In other words, our biggest busts so far are the middle road guys who are 3-4 year investment players. These are the Dillon Brooks, Jordan Bell, Joe Young type ranked players.

The reality is: Players transfer like crazy, even more so now with loose transfer rules, so the good ole days of getting guys to stay for 3 to 4 years cannot be the gameplan anymore. Oregon has had a HORRIBLE record of this since 2015. You need one and dones, grad transfers, and transfers as well.

The main issue currently is just not recruiting great players. We've been recruiting very poorly lately and Altman's choice of transfers/grad transfers the last two years has been a big miss:

Let's visit some viable reasons and stats for why Oregon sucks:
-Oregon hasn't had a top 30 recruiting class in almost 4 years. (You ain't winning with this formula)
-6 of our 9 commits from 2019 and 2020 classes left after a year or two (Brutal turnover)

Now why was Oregon good before 2020:
-From 2014-2019 Oregon never had a class worse than top 25 (And again since then, we haven't had a top 30 class)

[UOducksTK1]

Ironically, since the 2014 class, only one HS recruit ranked #55 or lower has worked out (Kenny Wooten). The rest transferred or have been busts. That's a decade!!

So if anything, we should stay away from the mid to low 4 star recruits or 3 star recruits. And just go transfer/grad transfer routes or go with better ranked recruits.

[northbeachsf]

Wow...I wonder where all these guys are?


2014:
Dillon Brooks #59 - NBA
Jordan Bell #100 - Plays professionally in China
Ahmaad Rorie #117 - Rorie was first team all conference at Montana and plays professionally overseas
Michael Chandler (3 star JC) - Michael Chandler bounced around but never really stuck anywhere
Dwayne Benjamin (3 star JC) - Plays professionally in Mexico
Casey Benson #193 - Plays professionally in Finland
Roman Sorkin NR - Plays professionally in Israel

2015:
Tyler Dorsey #28 - Plays professionally in the Euro League
Trevor Manuel #112 - Plays professionally in Mexico
Kendall Small #113 - Played for the San Diego Guardians in 2021
Chris Boucher (4 star JC) - NBA

2016:
Pritchard #54 - NBA
MJ Cage #99 - Entered the transfer portal after 1 year at Pepperdine. I could not find any other information.
Keith Smith #104 - Keith Smith made 8 total baskets at Pepperdine. Must have been continued injuries?

2017:
Troy Brown #13 - NBA
Victor Bailey #86 - Victor Bailey averaged 12 PPG and shot 47% from three this past season at GMU. Wow!
Kenny Wooten #129 - NBA G League
Abu Kigab #140 - Kigab was second team all conference and played well while at Boise. NBA summer league and G League

2018:
Bol Bol #4 - NBA
Louis King #20 - NBA
Will Richardson #46 - Oregon
Francis Okoro #56 - Okoro is averaging around 10 PPG and 8 RBG at St Louis.
Miles Norris #74 - Norris averaged 14 PPG at Santa Barbara this past season and shot 49% from the floor and 39% from three. Wow!

2019:
N'Faly Dante #14 - Oregon
CJ Walker #28 - Only played 5 games for UCF due to injury.
Addison Patterson #42 - Patterson got booted from Nevada and is playing at Tallahassee CC and dominating.
Isaac Johnson #74 - At Utah State averaging 2.4 PPG
Chandler Lawson #95 - Played 20 minutes a game at Memphis and shot 57% from the floor and 50% from three on the year. Wow!
Chris Duarte (3 star JC) - NBA
Lok Wur #467 - Oregon

2020:
Franck Kepnang #36 - Hurt and DNP at Washington
Jalen Terry #80 - Averaged 20 minutes per game and 5.7 PPG at DePaul

2021:
Nathan Bittle #28 - Oregon
Rivalo Soares (3 star JC) - Oregon


A lot of these guys have played pretty well at other places. Is it an Oregon issue developing these mid-tier guys?