NDSU/OREGON 2020

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JIDuck97
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by JIDuck97 »

Bud Lee wrote:I'm just laughing at the fact they are starting the trash talk a and the post season just ended :lol:
Started happened much earlier in the season sadly. Good to see you here Bud. :D
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

OregonFan4Life wrote:
Bud Lee wrote:
Lakesbison wrote:Has your stadium handled 10,000 opposing fans in it?
The Fargodome holds 19,000 for football games and y'all going to pack 10K on the road :lol:

How many seats are available to away fans in Autzen. It seats like 54K total right?
That wasn't even worth responding to cause there's no way they'll be even close to bringing the amount of visiting fans that Nebraska did. Oregon handled that game just fine as well.
I'd guess realistically at least 4-5K if tickets are available.

We get at least 15K to Frisco each year for the NCAA Division I championship game. In some ways, this will be a more exciting game for fans to see. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we bring close to 8-10K, but I'd still guess 5K is closer.
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

OregonFan4Life wrote:I hope the NDSU players/coaches talk like their fans do, then there will be no way that Oregon will take the game lightly. I'm sure Oregon will want to prove that NDSU, despite how good they are, is just an FCS school. If a prepared, motivated, and fired up Oregon team comes out, then NDSU simply has no chance. NDSU's only hope is that Oregon is looking ahead to Ohio State and isn't taking them seriously.
So... What happened with Arizona State this year? Oregon just wasn't motivated and prepared for that game? Figured they could just let one slide? Pretty sure if Arizona State can beat Oregon, then NDSU can beat them. Not saying it WILL happen for sure, but there's certainly a fair chance.

I'm sure the coaches will be doing the best they can to keep the players focused on this game, but I have to think that it will be hard with tOSU looming on the horizon the following week.
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

FWIW - Massey's computer algorithms indicate that if the 2019 versions of each respective team, the most likely score is Oregon 31, NDSU 20, with NDSU having a 20% probability of winning. I would have guessed it was closer to only a 15% chance of winning, but the score prediction seems reasonable.

My take is that NDSU will likely outperform expectations a bit and Oregon will underperform a bit. Just enough on both sides that it will end up being a close game to the end.

Not that this matters much for this match up on the field, but computer models were giving NDSU a roughly 10-15% chance of winning against Iowa in 2016 and K-State in 2013. They outperformed the computer model expectations then, and I think they can do it again.
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Bud Lee
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Bud Lee »

I legit wore a grey shirt and hat at the Natty cause all my stuff is purple and I was worried about Clemson wearing purple. Apparently they all wore orange. Which brings me to my point, how in the hell do y'all get everyone on the same page with wearing the same color? We have two games a year that we try to make that work and it goes to hell every time. :lol:
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Bud Lee
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Bud Lee »

JIDuck97 wrote:
Bud Lee wrote:I'm just laughing at the fact they are starting the trash talk a and the post season just ended :lol:
Started happened much earlier in the season sadly. Good to see you here Bud. :D
Good to be seen! I've been busy AF with life but things are slowing down thankfully
chapelhillduck
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by chapelhillduck »

Legitimate question for NDSU fans...

Why not move up to FBS like other good FCS teams have recently done?


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Bud Lee
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Bud Lee »

chapelhillduck wrote:Legitimate question for NDSU fans...

Why not move up to FBS like other good FCS teams have recently done?


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Because they then become Appalachian State and their high mark of the season after going 13-1 and winning their conference is playing UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. Love me some Appalachian State though
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

chapelhillduck wrote:Legitimate question for NDSU fans...

Why not move up to FBS like other good FCS teams have recently done?


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It is a legitimate question, and it is hashed and rehashed all the time. If it was simply a matter of "just doing it," it may already have been done. A lot of fans are clamoring for them to move up. But there are a lot of pieces that need to fall into place for it to be a prudent move.

First of all is that they need to have a conference invitation. What conference would make sense for them?

The MAC? Where they'd be an extreme geographic outlier and there would be a step down in competition on the football field?

The MWC? Where they'd also be an outlier, even if most of the institutions there are peer institutions? And then they'd have to travel far to compete in every sport, significantly increasing travel costs? Still, I suspect if the MWC called, NDSU would listen. Hasn't happened yet. I'm guessing there are other schools MWC would pursue before NDSU.

The Big 12? NDSU would accept that invitation in a heartbeat, but they simply don't have the resources to compete across all sports in the Big 12. And let's be real... Any P5 conference will have a number of other schools with bigger media markets on their short list.

Just because they can compete favorably on the gridiron with P5 teams and top 25-30 FBS teams overall doesn't mean that moving up is an easy or prudent thing to do. I'm confident that the school administration is always exploring options to make sure NDSU is in the best place though.

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BisonAlumni
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by BisonAlumni »

Bud Lee wrote:I legit wore a grey shirt and hat at the Natty cause all my stuff is purple and I was worried about Clemson wearing purple. Apparently they all wore orange. Which brings me to my point, how in the hell do y'all get everyone on the same page with wearing the same color? We have two games a year that we try to make that work and it goes to hell every time. :lol:
We literally get an email about what color to wear from the athletic department and it gets posted about on the forums and talked about word of mouth with the caveat that default is always Bison Gold. No joke.

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BisonAlumni
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by BisonAlumni »

JBB wrote:No feeling quite like it when they say " The Bison are in Victory formation!"

Its also fun when they say "We are now broadcasting from inside the Fabulous Fargo Dome!"

Game day anybody? Could be in Eugene 2 weeks in a row. They love the match-up. Doesn't everybody? This one is going coast-to-coast.
TIP TO LOCAL TICKET HOLDERS: Hang on they are going up.
I dont know what will happen when these teams line-up nobody does. One thing is clear: The Gam Analyzer Mechanism (GAM) has been running the monte carlos to determine the probable outcome.

At the finish, with no adjustments for strength of schedule or home field it's clear the Bison are better against the FCS than Oregon is against the FBS.

Using cumulative 2019 season statistics: The GAM forecasts: Bison 29.0104 Oregon 23.520. That's 5 points. It has been flashing that for a while now. If both teams have their day NDSU wins by 5. Over/Under is 53. Bison 29-24

But what about adjustments? They play in a weaker league, dont have near the money, don't have the talent, speed, size etc.

Home field you say? NDSU has won at University of Kansas, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Iowa, Minnesota. They also beat the defending MAC champs the Chippewas wherever they play ball. 8-0 for the FCS Championship in Frisco, TX. No home field.

Talent/athleticism/physicality: see above. No adjustment

Inflated Bison statistics because of inferior/weaker opponents:
  • Oregon played a boat load of inferior opponents at home.
    Margin of victory 28 pts.
    Biggest win 77-6 vs Nevada
Ducks beat Montana by 32. AZ by 28.
  • NDSU is better than Montana.
    Before they were eliminated from the FCS playoffs Bison were -9 vs Grizzlies.
    Arizona is 83 by Sagarin, NDSU 31.
    Giving NDSU any more points than 28/32 would attract a lot of wagers.
Oregon lost to Arizona State 31-28
  • Arizona State is 37 in Sagarin.
    Bison 31.
Right now The GAM in it's early monte-carlo runs has NDSU -3.5 vs Oregon; O/U is 46; Mythical score NDSU BISON 25.8764 - 21.9155.

This is a rock solid analysis. It can only be upended by the unexpected, the Swans both black and white, "Any Given Saturday" and probably a couple other intangibles. All football forecasting is. Watch the odds. Be very careful, Las Vegas et al are very good, very very good.

Just remember you saw it here first: Take the Bison and the points.
THE EARLY LINE:

JANUARY 15, 2020
GAM PUBLISHING
MONTE CARLO

NDSU @ OREGON: NDSU -3.5; O/U 46 ; NDSU O/U 25; OREGON O/U 21
LATEST TAILGATE RUMOR: Wisconsin vs. NDSU at TCF BANK STADIUM in Minneapolis. It would be a sell-out.
What is this GAM you speak of? Have a link?
BisonAlumni
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by BisonAlumni »

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... -state-fbs

You guys are on this list somewhere right?
partytime1667
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by partytime1667 »

BisonAlumni wrote:https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... -state-fbs

You guys are on this list somewhere right?
Did you really link a year-old article?
BisonAlumni
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by BisonAlumni »

partytime1667 wrote:
BisonAlumni wrote:https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... -state-fbs

You guys are on this list somewhere right?
Did you really link a year-old article?
Ooh, fair enough, good catch. You guys might have dropped more since then. I'll reach out and see if they have a fresh take.
thebootfitter
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

partytime1667 wrote:
BisonAlumni wrote:https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... -state-fbs

You guys are on this list somewhere right?
Did you really link a year-old article?
The general point is still valid. Yes, teams change. Players change. Even the feel of programs change over time, particularly with coaching changes, etc. But the point this article is making is that NDSU in any given year is not your typical FCS cupcake game.

College football fans with knowledge of the wider college football landscape recognize this. For others, it may take an article such as this to register that something is different about NDSU. That maybe they are capable of playing some pretty good football.

The NDSU team of 2018 ranks among the best ever of all Bison teams. Some argue that 2019 was even more talented, even though it was a very young team that was supposed to be in a rebuilding year with a new coach and breaking in a new rFr QB. While we lose some key contributors in 2020, we return a lot more. Most fans expect the 2020 Bison to be even better than 2019.

Now look at the teams on that list in that article. Arguably, Oregon will be ranked around the top 5 and almost certainly the top 10 teams in the country to start the year. They would likely fall in the top tier of teams versus the 2018 Bison.

So I dunno... All that said, I'm still thinking it will be a good game next year. Not sure I'd put money on either team straight up, and would almost certainly pick NDSU to cover if the line is anything more than 14 in favor of the Ducks.



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