NDSU/OREGON 2020

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GoDucksTroll
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

Duck07 wrote:We're going to have a Top 10 defense next year and they won't be taking the Bison lightly. More to the point for us though may be that by playing such a quality program will help us get ready to upset the Buckeyes the following week.

So who is the better program between Bowling Green and NDSU?
On Bisonville QB11 asked them which FBS team they are comparable to, who they would go 5-5 against if they played 10 times. They said Wisconsin or Michigan. I'm not even kidding. They were also explaining how they're a slightly better program than Arizona State using Sagarin ranking average, ignoring that they play FCS teams while Arizona State plays 10-11 P-5 games each year.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

GoDucksTroll wrote:
Duck07 wrote:We're going to have a Top 10 defense next year and they won't be taking the Bison lightly. More to the point for us though may be that by playing such a quality program will help us get ready to upset the Buckeyes the following week.

So who is the better program between Bowling Green and NDSU?
On Bisonville QB11 asked them which FBS team they are comparable to, who they would go 5-5 against if they played 10 times. They said Wisconsin or Michigan. I'm not even kidding. They were also explaining how they're a slightly better program than Arizona State using Sagarin ranking average, ignoring that they play FCS teams while Arizona State plays 10-11 P-5 games each year.
Sagarin and Massey computer algorithms normalize against competition. So they are as accurate as you can get when it comes to computer ratings rather than on the gridiron. Even when comparing FBS vs FCS teams, Sagarin and Massey predict outcomes with about 75% accuracy.

Ignore the FCS vs FBS labels. NDSU is likely a bit better than Arizona State. There are objective measures and data to support this assertion. What do you have to support a different assertion other than incredulity?

Go check out the Sagarin ratings. Teams that are in the same vicinity as NDSU may surprise you. And I'd bet a lot of money that games played would support their position.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by GoDucksTroll »

thebootfitter wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:
Duck07 wrote:We're going to have a Top 10 defense next year and they won't be taking the Bison lightly. More to the point for us though may be that by playing such a quality program will help us get ready to upset the Buckeyes the following week.

So who is the better program between Bowling Green and NDSU?
On Bisonville QB11 asked them which FBS team they are comparable to, who they would go 5-5 against if they played 10 times. They said Wisconsin or Michigan. I'm not even kidding. They were also explaining how they're a slightly better program than Arizona State using Sagarin ranking average, ignoring that they play FCS teams while Arizona State plays 10-11 P-5 games each year.
Sagarin and Massey computer algorithms normalize against competition. So they are as accurate as you can get when it comes to computer ratings rather than on the gridiron. Even when comparing FBS vs FCS teams, Sagarin and Massey predict outcomes with about 75% accuracy.

Ignore the FCS vs FBS labels. NDSU is likely a bit better than Arizona State. There are objective measures and data to support this assertion. What do you have to support a different assertion other than incredulity?

Go check out the Sagarin ratings. Teams that are in the same vicinity as NDSU may surprise you. And I'd bet a lot of money that games played would support their position.
Massey, Sagarin, S&P are all crap as far as I'm concerned. If they weren't then any person who uses their predictive model would be a gambling god.

Let's look at some Sagarin highlights from this year:

* Texas (8-5) rated higher than the 11-3 Baylor team they lost to.

* Washington (8-5) rated three spots higher than the 11-3 Utah team they lost to.

* Air Force (11-2) rated higher than the 12-2 Boise State team they lost to.

* Nebraska 14 spots higher than the Colorado team with an identical record that they lost to.

* Purdue (4-8) 10 spots higher than the 6 win Illinois team that beat them. 42 spots higher than the 7 win Nevada team they lost to.

Those are just the ones I saw from first glance. If this is the objective system you're hanging your hat on then I don't know what to tell you. If Arizona State and NDSU play 10 times, Sparky wins that nine or maybe eight times. I don't have any horrible ratings to back that up, just common sense. I respect NDSU's sustained success, but if they play a meat grinder P-5 schedule where they aren't the big fish in a tiny pond they would be lucky to be bowl eligible.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Bighonkingduck »

Jeff Sacharin :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

GoDucksTroll wrote:Massey, Sagarin, S&P are all crap as far as I'm concerned. If they weren't then any person who uses their predictive model would be a gambling god.

Let's look at some Sagarin highlights from this year:

* Texas (8-5) rated higher than the 11-3 Baylor team they lost to.

* Washington (8-5) rated three spots higher than the 11-3 Utah team they lost to.

* Air Force (11-2) rated higher than the 12-2 Boise State team they lost to.

* Nebraska 14 spots higher than the Colorado team with an identical record that they lost to.

* Purdue (4-8) 10 spots higher than the 6 win Illinois team that beat them. 42 spots higher than the 7 win Nevada team they lost to.

Those are just the ones I saw from first glance. If this is the objective system you're hanging your hat on then I don't know what to tell you. If Arizona State and NDSU play 10 times, Sparky wins that nine or maybe eight times. I don't have any horrible ratings to back that up, just common sense. I respect NDSU's sustained success, but if they play a meat grinder P-5 schedule where they aren't the big fish in a tiny pond they would be lucky to be bowl eligible.
I get it. You don't understand how computer models work. That's okay. They aren't super straightforward and can produce some counterintuitive results at first glance. And there are always anomalies. The important thing to remember is that they accurately predict the winner of games roughly 75% of the time.

Of course, knowledgeable college football analysts can probably exceed that success rate with a bit of luck and some hard work.

Like with any statistical model, they aren't perfect. They simply follow an objective formula and produce a relatively accurate prediction across a broad range of potential outcomes.

Remember the concept of standard deviation from introductory statistics? A measure of variability in predicted results? Same thing applies here. Statistically, roughly 2/3 of actual game outcomes will be within 1 standard deviation. Roughly 95% will be within 2 st. devs. Guess what? The standard deviation in these models is pretty big. Typically around 2 TDs. So there could be a 28 pt swing in either direction from the predicted result on the field and it would still fall within the 95% confidence interval for the game.

While they have pretty good skill at predicting outcomes, there's a lot of room for variability.

One of the reasons why sports bets don't make huge money using predictive models like these is that betting lines usually open somewhere close to what the models predict. So there's no betting advantage. There are also situations where humans know that a star quarterback was injured the week before or any other human element that doesn't get captured in the box score from past games.

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

Oh... And I definitely don't "hang my hat" on any computer models. I much prefer to see the games played on the field, with all the variability they offer in real time. Any given Saturday, right? Just ask Arizona State. Ha ha!

I do find them useful for comparing relative strength of teams, though. Always with a grain of salt knowing that they can only predict based on the actual outcomes of previous games. And we all know that crazy things can happen in a game.

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by duck58 »

No way UO loses game to NDSU. UO has 4 4* QBs to find one to replace Herbert. They have highly projected OL prospects to replace admittedly a top one; probably a drop off. Still will be a good one. Unless there is a long garbage time, in which UO goes deep into defensive rotation, NDSU won't score 20.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by thebootfitter »

duck58 wrote:No way UO loses game to NDSU. UO has 4 4* QBs to find one to replace Herbert. They have highly projected OL prospects to replace admittedly a top one; probably a drop off. Still will be a good one. Unless there is a long garbage time, in which UO goes deep into defensive rotation, NDSU won't score 20.
A fair question to ask is how did Oregon lose to Arizona State this year? That's a game you should have won. Crazy things sometimes happen. Sometimes the team with a better recruiting class doesn't win.

Not that I'm not predicting an NDSU win. But I do think it is a lot more likely than you're predicting. As I've said several times in this thread and others... I have data to back up my position. What do you have to back up yours? Other than a disbelief that NDSU might actually be as good as Arizona State?

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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by ATLBison »

wepto wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:
NomadBison wrote:The Iowa game is the only real team we can compare Oregon to though. They were the best team that we had played until the Ducks next September. I’m not trying to make excuses for some Bison fans being the way they are but we are still handicapped at having 22 less scholarship kids, we are a developmental program, Iowa was number 11/13 in the country at the time and held them to under 50 yds rushing. Yes it took a last second field goal to win but that was not our best team and we didn’t win the title that year. After all that is said it was still 4 years ago and both teams (NDSU, Oregon) have changed since for the better and those past results will have no bearing on how our game will go this fall.

Football talk: Our QB Trey Lance is the real deal and will be a RSo this season. He’s big, fast and strong. Has a great arm and is relatively accurate even though he is still developing. Possess some great pocket awareness and can be elusive. Our RB room runs about 5 deep and all will get playing time. Also returning what many would consider our best back from last years ACL injury so we’ll see how he’s doing this spring. Return two 6’6” TE that played a lot last year. We also return 4 of our 5 starting OL that average 6’5” 317 ish. LT Radunz will be I interesting to watch with Thibodeaux. WR Watson and Sproles will be our best guys in that position.

NDSU Offensive guys to Jeep an eye on: QB Trey Lance, RB Seth Wilson, TE Noah Gindorf, LT Dillon Radunz and WR Christian Watson.

On defense we took a hit at DE and to some extent DT so I’m not sure quite what to think there but we do have some great young guys. LB will be a strength with Cox, Hankey and Mercado all returning starters. One returning starter in Josh Hayes at CB. Michael Tutsie is our returning starter at S.

Defensive guys to keep an eye on: OLB Jabril Cox!!! DE Spencer Waege, DT Lane Tucker, CB Hayes and S Tutsie. We do run 2-3 deep at most positions so we do have quality depth. Scheme and being assignment sound are two of the big reasons for NDSU success. I am optimistic about the game but just want to see how we look on the field against a team like Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
Thank you for the healthy back-and-forth, Nomad. This board isn't as big/active as some of the other ones, but it's been around for quite some time and some of the people covering Oregon/recruiting started posting here before their current gigs. We're usually pretty civil here.

I appreciate the breakdown. I watched the game against JMU this season, and I watched some NDSU highlights the other day. It's still a long way out and I'll be wanting to learn more because the football withdrawals will be so strong.

I am enjoying following the discussion over on Bisonville. And all of us appreciate what NDSU has been able to do at a lower level and in opportunities against some P-5 schools. I didn't expect your fans to admit near certain defeat seven months before the game was played. I am blown away by the combination of arrogance and ignorance I'm reading in some of those posts.

I'm sure our more uncouth fans will bring more arrogance with them, so I hope we don't make too bad of an impression. It just seems like NDSU is thinking they're on equal footing here, when the reality is this would be the biggest upset in college football since App State beat Michigan in 2007.
I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
^ Best take I’ve seen yet. NDSU would be mid level PAC-12, not the bottom of the barrel.


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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Lakesbison »

seems like the Oregon fans have found bisonville.com board
some good banter back and forth will suffice.
NDSU just signed a CB from Tampa Bay that had offers from Nebraska. So hopefully he's om the field vs Oregon Day 1
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Lakesbison »

duck58 wrote:No way UO loses game to NDSU. UO has 4 4* QBs to find one to replace Herbert. They have highly projected OL prospects to replace admittedly a top one; probably a drop off. Still will be a good one. Unless there is a long garbage time, in which UO goes deep into defensive rotation, NDSU won't score 20.

Quoted for old takes exposed ..
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by OregonFan4Life »

NDSU fans are a very impressive bunch, their talk on this forum has gotten me more pumped for the NDSU game than the tOSU game, I did not see that happening.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by wepto »

ATLBison wrote:
wepto wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:
NomadBison wrote:The Iowa game is the only real team we can compare Oregon to though. They were the best team that we had played until the Ducks next September. I’m not trying to make excuses for some Bison fans being the way they are but we are still handicapped at having 22 less scholarship kids, we are a developmental program, Iowa was number 11/13 in the country at the time and held them to under 50 yds rushing. Yes it took a last second field goal to win but that was not our best team and we didn’t win the title that year. After all that is said it was still 4 years ago and both teams (NDSU, Oregon) have changed since for the better and those past results will have no bearing on how our game will go this fall.

Football talk: Our QB Trey Lance is the real deal and will be a RSo this season. He’s big, fast and strong. Has a great arm and is relatively accurate even though he is still developing. Possess some great pocket awareness and can be elusive. Our RB room runs about 5 deep and all will get playing time. Also returning what many would consider our best back from last years ACL injury so we’ll see how he’s doing this spring. Return two 6’6” TE that played a lot last year. We also return 4 of our 5 starting OL that average 6’5” 317 ish. LT Radunz will be I interesting to watch with Thibodeaux. WR Watson and Sproles will be our best guys in that position.

NDSU Offensive guys to Jeep an eye on: QB Trey Lance, RB Seth Wilson, TE Noah Gindorf, LT Dillon Radunz and WR Christian Watson.

On defense we took a hit at DE and to some extent DT so I’m not sure quite what to think there but we do have some great young guys. LB will be a strength with Cox, Hankey and Mercado all returning starters. One returning starter in Josh Hayes at CB. Michael Tutsie is our returning starter at S.

Defensive guys to keep an eye on: OLB Jabril Cox!!! DE Spencer Waege, DT Lane Tucker, CB Hayes and S Tutsie. We do run 2-3 deep at most positions so we do have quality depth. Scheme and being assignment sound are two of the big reasons for NDSU success. I am optimistic about the game but just want to see how we look on the field against a team like Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
Thank you for the healthy back-and-forth, Nomad. This board isn't as big/active as some of the other ones, but it's been around for quite some time and some of the people covering Oregon/recruiting started posting here before their current gigs. We're usually pretty civil here.

I appreciate the breakdown. I watched the game against JMU this season, and I watched some NDSU highlights the other day. It's still a long way out and I'll be wanting to learn more because the football withdrawals will be so strong.

I am enjoying following the discussion over on Bisonville. And all of us appreciate what NDSU has been able to do at a lower level and in opportunities against some P-5 schools. I didn't expect your fans to admit near certain defeat seven months before the game was played. I am blown away by the combination of arrogance and ignorance I'm reading in some of those posts.

I'm sure our more uncouth fans will bring more arrogance with them, so I hope we don't make too bad of an impression. It just seems like NDSU is thinking they're on equal footing here, when the reality is this would be the biggest upset in college football since App State beat Michigan in 2007.
I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
^ Best take I’ve seen yet. NDSU would be mid level PAC-12, not the bottom of the barrel.


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In a single ooc game, NDSU has shown they can perform as well as a mid tier Pac-12 team.

If NDSU had to play 9 conference games + 1 ooc P5 opponent, they'd implode in November--just like we saw when Utah moved up a level. Those extra scholarships are much more important over the course of a season. Guys get way more dinged up playing against dudes that are much bigger, faster and stronger. Utah beat Alabama as a G5 program and still tanked hard their first 4 years in the Pac-12. And Utah didn't have the scholarship reduction that FCS teams do. Realistically, it would take NDSU 5 years to make a bowl if they moved up to a P5 conference.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by buckmarkduck »

wepto wrote:
ATLBison wrote:
wepto wrote:
GoDucksTroll wrote:
NomadBison wrote:The Iowa game is the only real team we can compare Oregon to though. They were the best team that we had played until the Ducks next September. I’m not trying to make excuses for some Bison fans being the way they are but we are still handicapped at having 22 less scholarship kids, we are a developmental program, Iowa was number 11/13 in the country at the time and held them to under 50 yds rushing. Yes it took a last second field goal to win but that was not our best team and we didn’t win the title that year. After all that is said it was still 4 years ago and both teams (NDSU, Oregon) have changed since for the better and those past results will have no bearing on how our game will go this fall.

Football talk: Our QB Trey Lance is the real deal and will be a RSo this season. He’s big, fast and strong. Has a great arm and is relatively accurate even though he is still developing. Possess some great pocket awareness and can be elusive. Our RB room runs about 5 deep and all will get playing time. Also returning what many would consider our best back from last years ACL injury so we’ll see how he’s doing this spring. Return two 6’6” TE that played a lot last year. We also return 4 of our 5 starting OL that average 6’5” 317 ish. LT Radunz will be I interesting to watch with Thibodeaux. WR Watson and Sproles will be our best guys in that position.

NDSU Offensive guys to Jeep an eye on: QB Trey Lance, RB Seth Wilson, TE Noah Gindorf, LT Dillon Radunz and WR Christian Watson.

On defense we took a hit at DE and to some extent DT so I’m not sure quite what to think there but we do have some great young guys. LB will be a strength with Cox, Hankey and Mercado all returning starters. One returning starter in Josh Hayes at CB. Michael Tutsie is our returning starter at S.

Defensive guys to keep an eye on: OLB Jabril Cox!!! DE Spencer Waege, DT Lane Tucker, CB Hayes and S Tutsie. We do run 2-3 deep at most positions so we do have quality depth. Scheme and being assignment sound are two of the big reasons for NDSU success. I am optimistic about the game but just want to see how we look on the field against a team like Oregon in Autzen Stadium.
Thank you for the healthy back-and-forth, Nomad. This board isn't as big/active as some of the other ones, but it's been around for quite some time and some of the people covering Oregon/recruiting started posting here before their current gigs. We're usually pretty civil here.

I appreciate the breakdown. I watched the game against JMU this season, and I watched some NDSU highlights the other day. It's still a long way out and I'll be wanting to learn more because the football withdrawals will be so strong.

I am enjoying following the discussion over on Bisonville. And all of us appreciate what NDSU has been able to do at a lower level and in opportunities against some P-5 schools. I didn't expect your fans to admit near certain defeat seven months before the game was played. I am blown away by the combination of arrogance and ignorance I'm reading in some of those posts.

I'm sure our more uncouth fans will bring more arrogance with them, so I hope we don't make too bad of an impression. It just seems like NDSU is thinking they're on equal footing here, when the reality is this would be the biggest upset in college football since App State beat Michigan in 2007.
I think that's underselling NDSU a bit. I'd take 2019 NDSU as a straight up favorite over 2019 Stanford or Arizona. Oregon State and Cal (while Garbers was out) would also have a lot of trouble. They have shown that they can consistently beat mid/lower tier P5 teams. Ducks are still a solid favorite--but it's more like an 85/15% game than a 99/1% game.
^ Best take I’ve seen yet. NDSU would be mid level PAC-12, not the bottom of the barrel.


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In a single ooc game, NDSU has shown they can perform as well as a mid tier Pac-12 team.

If NDSU had to play 9 conference games + 1 ooc P5 opponent, they'd implode in November--just like we saw when Utah moved up a level. Those extra scholarships are much more important over the course of a season. Guys get way more dinged up playing against dudes that are much bigger, faster and stronger. Utah beat Alabama as a G5 program and still tanked hard their first 4 years in the Pac-12. And Utah didn't have the scholarship reduction that FCS teams do. Realistically, it would take NDSU 5 years to make a bowl if they moved up to a P5 conference.
Utah was way above 1AA. NDSU might pull out an upset over OS, but if they played 8 other games vs Pac 12 teams, they would be lucky to be within 10 of anyone else.
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Re: NDSU/OREGON 2020

Post by Lakesbison »

if NDSU was power 5 /FBS. theyd have 22 more full rides and easily increase their recruiting from predominantly 2 and 1 star kids to 2/3 star & Occasional 4 star and absolutely would be a top G5 team
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