Oregon starts at #6 in CFP Poll

[Tray Dub]

How about the scenario where Texas, Alabama, and Florida State win out? I think we're probably screwed if all three of those things happen.

[5$]

Sagarin got us at #4 right now:

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[73duck]

> How about the scenario where Texas, Alabama, and Florida State win out?

If FSU wins out, they are in; if they don't, they are out. More sure of the latter than the former.

There is a bit of inertia working for Oregon here.

Texas has that Alabama win, and it has not been enough to push them past Oregon so far. Part of that might be a feeling that Oregon is just better than Texas. The Alabama win would increase in value, though, if Alabama beats Georgia. I have to think that the committee has Oregon and Texas very close. Oregon has more ranked teams left on their schedule. A win over UW would be an important one if UW does not stumble down the stretch.

Also, look at UW. Why are they ranked behind FSU and Michigan? I have to think that mediocre performances over the past couple of weeks has hurt UW. If Oregon has a week or two like that, I expect Texas to pass them. even if Oregon wins out.

I don't think the loser of the Michigan/OSU or Alabama/Georgia gets in over a one-loss Oregon.

[Tray Dub]

> How about the scenario where Texas, Alabama, and Florida State win out?

If FSU wins out, they are in; if they don't, they are out. More sure of the latter than the former.

There is a bit of inertia working for Oregon here.

Texas has that Alabama win, and it has not been enough to push them past Oregon so far. Part of that might be a feeling that Oregon is just better than Texas. The Alabama win would increase in value, though, if Alabama beats Georgia. I have to think that the committee has Oregon and Texas very close. Oregon has more ranked teams left on their schedule. A win over UW would be an important one if UW does not stumble down the stretch.

Also, look at UW. Why are they ranked behind FSU and Michigan? I have to think that mediocre performances over the past couple of weeks has hurt UW. If Oregon has a week or two like that, I expect Texas to pass them. even if Oregon wins out.

I don't think the loser of the Michigan/OSU or Alabama/Georgia gets in over a one-loss Oregon.

I agree with all of this. My thought is that if Alabama wins out, they're in, and that would mean Texas has the best win in the country: beating playoff-bound Alabama. If you have Alabama in with one loss, how do you not have the team that beat them, and also only has one loss, also in? It would still be close but I think Texas would have the edge, whereas if Bama doesn't win out (and Texas does), I think it's also close but we ultimately get the nod.

[OregonFan4Life]

If Oregon wins out and beats the Huskies in the championship game then the Ducks will be in, even if the Huskies aren’t undefeated (not sure they’ll survive in Corvallis). I say that simply cause Oregon’s only loss will be to a team that they beat so I imagine the committee will almost view them as an undefeated team. Oregon just needs to win out and ideally beat the Huskies by multiple scores and I’m sure they’ll be in

I’m surprised how many Oregon fans are talking about rankings/playoffs though, haven’t we been Oregon/college football fans long enough to know this isn’t the time to discuss rankings/playoffs? Oregon was ranked 6th last year with 3 games left, 2 of them being home, only to drop 2 games and end up in the Holiday Bowl. I’m not saying that will happen to this team as this is a much better team, but there’s quite a bit of football left to be played to discuss rankings/playoffs.

[StevensTechU]

One thing that is annoying me just a little bit about all this is that when folks talk about resumes, they treat all wins as equal. Suddenly, 40 point blowouts and games that were decided by a single play are flattened and treated the same. If you're trying to determine which team is "best," that's simply not the way you'd look at it (a team who beats Kansas by 40 is looked at as better than the team who beats them by 1).

Oregon has 1 narrow victory, early in the season at Texas Tech. Texas has three narrow victories, over Wyoming (tied at 10 in the 4th quarter), Houston (decided by a terrible spot on a 3rd down on the last drive of the game), and Kansas State (came down a goal line 4th down).

That's the reason Oregon is, and should be, ranked higher. The takeaway is then that Oregon needs to continue to dominate their schedule.

[ducks5ever]

Another takeaway is that the non-conference schedule helping out your resume (for CFP purposes) is a total myth. You look at the top teams in the rankings and they all played cupcake non-conference games. No one cares.

Looking objectively, Texas has the better resume than us, BUT** if the committee has us ahead now, I just don't know how the committee can justify Texas jumping us from here on out looking at what's left on both teams' schedules.

We have 2 ranked teams left (one being a probable unbeaten UW team). Texas has 3 ~0.5 unranked teams left and probably a 2-loss conference champion opponent.

To tie it all together, while Texas's win against Alabama is impressive, the committee cares more about how the teams look at the end of the season, not the beginning. Going forward, it will be boring but we need more Portland States, not more Georgias during non-conference play.

[pezsez1]

I think it also matters that Oregon's only loss is 3 points on the road (by a few feet) to an unbeaten team while Texas lost at a neutral site to a two-loss team.

I'm not overthinking Texas leaping us if Bama wins out. Yes, that win would be good on paper, but it's also pretty obvious that Alabama (and not Texas) has improved mightily over the course of the season. What happened then likely wouldn't happen again now.

If Oregon were to beat UW (with one or zero losses) with both teams at full strength at the end of the season then that would be a better win than TX over Alabama in Week 2. Advantage goes to Oregon even if both wins are viewed equally.

Win and we are in.

[Tray Dub]

Joel Klatt talked about exactly the scenario I mentioned today on his show and he concluded that it would be Alabama who would be left out. That is hard to fathom – one-loss SEC champ Bama is left out? – but it does make some sense. In an everyone-wins-out world, they'll be behind us and Texas until the conference championship weekend, and then all three teams would have really good wins... Bama's would be most impressive, then ours, then Texas', but does that really result in Bama leaping both teams? Leaping Texas, who beat them head-to-head? Does Texas leap Oregon despite UW being a better win than OU? I think he's right. It'd be, incredibly, Alabama who is on the outside looking in on a playoff with Michigan/tOSU, FSU, Oregon, and Texas.