Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Phalanx
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

Post by Phalanx »

I had never heard of Avdija before, and that was a pretty steep price to pay, but it seems like a good trade. It's a great contract - the kind the Blazers can never initiate on their own. He's signed for four years, and the amount gets smaller while hopefully the Blazers will be adding talent. He could be a very good piece if he can maintain those stats on a better team, which is not always a guarantee.

Clingan seems like a career backup in a draft full of them. He does seem to be the one they wanted all along. Hopefully he pans out. The Blazers need talent, but they also need a culture change. Hopefully these two guys can help toward that end.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Phalanx wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 8:35 pm I had never heard of Avdija before, and that was a pretty steep price to pay, but it seems like a good trade. It's a great contract - the kind the Blazers can never initiate on their own. He's signed for four years, and the amount gets smaller while hopefully the Blazers will be adding talent. He could be a very good piece if he can maintain those stats on a better team, which is not always a guarantee.

Clingan seems like a career backup in a draft full of them. He does seem to be the one they wanted all along. Hopefully he pans out. The Blazers need talent, but they also need a culture change. Hopefully these two guys can help toward that end.
More importantly, that trade puts them under the tax threshold while getting a decent player on the teams time line. Brogdon is 31, and would be the 3rd pg, possibly 4th, when the team is healthy.

Everything I've seen does suggest clingan will be a career backup, but with the defensive capabilities of a starter. Injuries seem to be his major issue holding him back. Something Portland has severely lacked is size coming off the bench, and they regularly get eaten alive when the starters are sitting. If clingan offers nothing more than size, great defense, and good rebounding off the bench while giving 20-30 minutes per game, it was a good pick.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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squintsdd wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 7:25 am
More importantly, that trade puts them under the tax threshold while getting a decent player on the teams time line. Brogdon is 31, and would be the 3rd pg, possibly 4th, when the team is healthy.
The time line thing is overdone. The best teams have a good mix of leadership and energy, money players and rookie deals. It is a good thing that Brogdon for Avdija gets them under the tax, but it's a bigger deal if Avdija ends up being the starting wing the next four years on that contract. The Blazers need guys who outperform their contracts, and this could be one. I think the Blazers could field a decent team this year, but I'm also cool if they can find someone to take Grant because he is overpaid, and they could replace his production for less cap space.

Brogdon was the only efficient and reliable point guard on the roster, and losing him creates a tremendous weakness at that position. I kind of wonder if we'll see a point guard get picked today - if Cronin doesn't decide to trade the picks. If Scoot doesn't work out, it would be nice to have a backup plan in place.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Phalanx wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:39 am
squintsdd wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 7:25 am
More importantly, that trade puts them under the tax threshold while getting a decent player on the teams time line. Brogdon is 31, and would be the 3rd pg, possibly 4th, when the team is healthy.
The time line thing is overdone. The best teams have a good mix of leadership and energy, money players and rookie deals. It is a good thing that Brogdon for Avdija gets them under the tax, but it's a bigger deal if Avdija ends up being the starting wing the next four years on that contract. The Blazers need guys who outperform their contracts, and this could be one. I think the Blazers could field a decent team this year, but I'm also cool if they can find someone to take Grant because he is overpaid, and they could replace his production for less cap space.

Brogdon was the only efficient and reliable point guard on the roster, and losing him creates a tremendous weakness at that position. I kind of wonder if we'll see a point guard get picked today - if Cronin doesn't decide to trade the picks. If Scoot doesn't work out, it would be nice to have a backup plan in place.
Yeah, I'm hoping the deal Grant, and even Simons. Simons' defense is so atrocious it completely negates anything he does on the offensive end. Both their contacts are huge, and not worth what they provide to the team.

If I had to guess, Cronin will likely try and grab a pg out of free agency, and I'm hoping they bring back banton. Next year's draft is much stronger, and that might be where they go for the backup plan if Scoot struggles again.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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I am definitely happy with yesterday's moves. Cronin might have been flailing during his first couple years on the job, but now that he's settled on a lane (or, rather, now that one has been chosen for him) he seems to be finding his groove. I've been critical of Cronin's lack of experience as an Olshey guy who was hired from within on the cheap... but maybe he's actually learning on the job and becoming a decent GM. We'll get more evidence of his competence as this offseason (and season) go on... there are clearly still moves to be made.

Also, I don't see trading for that forward as an overpay at all. We shed salary, picked up a great contract, and managed to get a young, talented 6-9 forward (probably the most difficult kind of player to acquire these days) in exchange for Brog (who was redundant/old and needed to go), the 14th pick in a weak draft, a far-future first and 2nds (barely care about 2nds). There was no better way we could have used that 14th pick.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Looks like the Blazers traded pick 34 for some future pocket lint and then sold pick 40 for cash from two different teams. So no new players coming to the Blazers on day two. It does look like maybe all 15 spots were already filled with contracts, so maybe they just didn't have room for more players and did the best they could to trade them away. If I want to feel better about this, I can remember that Cronin acquired Dalano Banton with a second round pick only a few month ago, so he can be our 2nd rounder this year. Meanwhile, Cronin more or less recovered the 2nd round picks he traded away to get Avdija.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Duck07 wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:27 pm
Boom wrote: Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:05 pm Blazers having a nice draft day so far. Picking up Clingan and Avdija for the rebuild. Looking forward to see what kind of value Cronin can get for Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton this season.
I don't think the team should be so quick to move off Ayton as I think having two 7 footers who are different types of players is a good thing for the multiple matchups they'll face. We knew Ayton wanted to play some 4 last year so in what should be another tank year, I say let it play out unless you get an offer you can't refuse for him.

Jerami Grant feels like the next move because the future looks like Scoot-Shaedon-Avdija-?-Clingan.
Hopefully Blazers receive some lottery luck and that open forward spot turns into Cooper Flag or Ace Bailey.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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I really love how Ayton turned himself around last season but I just don't think he fits as a long-term piece here. I agree to an extent about what someone else (Phalanx?) said about synced player timelines being a bit overrated, but with Ayton I think it's a bit more important. Big men like Ayton don't tend to have very long primes. By the time Scoot/Shae pop -- and by the time whoever we draft in 2025 hopefully pops -- Ayton will likely be showing increasing signs of wear-and-tear. He'll probably be at least 30 years old by the time we're ready to make an honest playoff push. AND he'll want to be a max-contract player. Just doesn't seem like a good long-term fit.

With more parity under the new CBA, more teams will be loading up for the playoffs and possible title runs. Seems like an opportunity will be there to move Ayton for some serious capital. I have no clue if that's part of Cronin's plan, but I just don't see any real long-term benefit in keeping him around -- unless we catch fire to start the 2025 season and meteorically rise into conference contention -- which just seems wildly unlikely given that Denver, Minnesota, OKC, Dallas, probably San Antonio and others will be standing in our way.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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pezsez1 wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:30 pm I really love how Ayton turned himself around last season but I just don't think he fits as a long-term piece here. I agree to an extent about what someone else (Phalanx?) said about synced player timelines being a bit overrated, but with Ayton I think it's a bit more important. Big men like Ayton don't tend to have very long primes. By the time Scoot/Shae pop -- and by the time whoever we draft in 2025 hopefully pops -- Ayton will likely be showing increasing signs of wear-and-tear. He'll probably be at least 30 years old by the time we're ready to make an honest playoff push. AND he'll want to be a max-contract player. Just doesn't seem like a good long-term fit.

With more parity under the new CBA, more teams will be loading up for the playoffs and possible title runs. Seems like an opportunity will be there to move Ayton for some serious capital. I have no clue if that's part of Cronin's plan, but I just don't see any real long-term benefit in keeping him around -- unless we catch fire to start the 2025 season and meteorically rise into conference contention -- which just seems wildly unlikely given that Denver, Minnesota, OKC, Dallas, probably San Antonio and others will be standing in our way.
Ayton is currently 25, soon to be 26. If Portland is waiting until he's 30 to make a playoff push and still holding onto him, or anyone else currently in the roster, than the front office will have failed far far more than they already have.

If Portland hasn't made any kind of playoff push by the time Ayton is 28, then this team needs to move on from nearly anyone and, everyone on the roster and in the front office.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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squintsdd wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:05 am
pezsez1 wrote: Thu Jun 27, 2024 8:30 pm I really love how Ayton turned himself around last season but I just don't think he fits as a long-term piece here. I agree to an extent about what someone else (Phalanx?) said about synced player timelines being a bit overrated, but with Ayton I think it's a bit more important. Big men like Ayton don't tend to have very long primes. By the time Scoot/Shae pop -- and by the time whoever we draft in 2025 hopefully pops -- Ayton will likely be showing increasing signs of wear-and-tear. He'll probably be at least 30 years old by the time we're ready to make an honest playoff push. AND he'll want to be a max-contract player. Just doesn't seem like a good long-term fit.

With more parity under the new CBA, more teams will be loading up for the playoffs and possible title runs. Seems like an opportunity will be there to move Ayton for some serious capital. I have no clue if that's part of Cronin's plan, but I just don't see any real long-term benefit in keeping him around -- unless we catch fire to start the 2025 season and meteorically rise into conference contention -- which just seems wildly unlikely given that Denver, Minnesota, OKC, Dallas, probably San Antonio and others will be standing in our way.
Ayton is currently 25, soon to be 26. If Portland is waiting until he's 30 to make a playoff push and still holding onto him, or anyone else currently in the roster, than the front office will have failed far far more than they already have.

If Portland hasn't made any kind of playoff push by the time Ayton is 28, then this team needs to move on from nearly anyone and, everyone on the roster and in the front office.
It’s 3 years minimum and that’s if Scoot and Sharpe make significant jumps in development.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Ayton is currently 25, soon to be 26. If Portland is waiting until he's 30 to make a playoff push and still holding onto him, or anyone else currently in the roster, than the front office will have failed far far more than they already have.
I said this before last season and I'll say it again now -- some fans have WAAAAAAAY to high of expectations.

Scoot and Shaedon are at least two years away from playing good enough ball to compete in the playoffs. Anfernee Simons won't be here, and neither will Grant. We don't yet have our backup point guard of the future. We don't have our starting 4 of the future. We might have our 3, but who knows. We may not have our starting 5 of the future. Ayton had a good year, but we ain't paying him a max contract. We don't even know what Scoot will be.. is his ceiling Jru Holiday (respectable, but not THAT GUY you build around) or something greater? Same goes for Shae. For all we know, he could turn out to be the next Booker or a carbon copy of Will Barton.

Ayton will likely be pushing 30 by the time we're ready to compete in the playoffs. That's not a hot take. Even in the best-case scenario maybe he's 28 and we get a few good years out of him before his body starts breaking down. Then what? Ayton's time to shine is over the next five years, not starting in five years from now. Pretty sure he knows that and so does Portland's F.O.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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I don't know about competing (if we mean contending), but with the right coaching and culture, this is a playoff team now, except probably at point guard. It isn't hard to make the playoffs in the NBA. Half the teams that don't make it were tanking anyway. I guess you could keep tanking year after year, trading away veterans and stocking up draft picks like the Sixers did all those years, but the Blazers are moving into year 4 of the rebuild. Probably time to swing away and see what we have. Anyway, Cronin's moves aren't the ones a perpetual rebuilder would do. Why trade so many draft picks for an up-and-coming small forward unless you plan to utilize him? There are stages of a rebuild: stockpiling draft picks is one stage, and trading them for ready talent is a later one.

It looks to me, based on the moves made over the past year, that Cronin wants to win soon. Maybe another year to become a team, or maybe they can even get there by the end of this season.

PG Henderson, Banton
SG Simons, Sharpe
SF Avdija, Thybulle, Camara
PF Grant, Walker
C Ayton, Clingan, Williams

If healthy, this is a decent team. Just need some time to learn to play together.
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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pezsez1 wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 1:39 pm
Ayton is currently 25, soon to be 26. If Portland is waiting until he's 30 to make a playoff push and still holding onto him, or anyone else currently in the roster, than the front office will have failed far far more than they already have.
I said this before last season and I'll say it again now -- some fans have WAAAAAAAY to high of expectations.

Scoot and Shaedon are at least two years away from playing good enough ball to compete in the playoffs. Anfernee Simons won't be here, and neither will Grant. We don't yet have our backup point guard of the future. We don't have our starting 4 of the future. We might have our 3, but who knows. We may not have our starting 5 of the future. Ayton had a good year, but we ain't paying him a max contract. We don't even know what Scoot will be.. is his ceiling Jru Holiday (respectable, but not THAT GUY you build around) or something greater? Same goes for Shae. For all we know, he could turn out to be the next Booker or a carbon copy of Will Barton.

Ayton will likely be pushing 30 by the time we're ready to compete in the playoffs. That's not a hot take. Even in the best-case scenario maybe he's 28 and we get a few good years out of him before his body starts breaking down. Then what? Ayton's time to shine is over the next five years, not starting in five years from now. Pretty sure he knows that and so does Portland's F.O.
Very few teams have a backup pg of the future. What the hell is that even anyway?

By year 3 and 4 in the NBA players, even young ones, have pretty much shown their potential. Very few players make significant leaps in talent and skill after year 4. Also, I would expect a front office to be able to build a team around said players in that time frame. If Sharpe and Henderson show significant improvement by then, and this team still hasn't made a playoff push in a couple years, then that's a failure on the front office. There is zero reason why a core of Henderson, Ayton, and Sharpe can't make the playoffs in 2 years besides either they fail to grow, or the front office fails to build around them. You might be on with waiting 5 more years to make the playoffs, but 99% of the fan base is not
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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squintsdd wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 3:39 pm
pezsez1 wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 1:39 pm
Ayton is currently 25, soon to be 26. If Portland is waiting until he's 30 to make a playoff push and still holding onto him, or anyone else currently in the roster, than the front office will have failed far far more than they already have.
I said this before last season and I'll say it again now -- some fans have WAAAAAAAY to high of expectations.

Scoot and Shaedon are at least two years away from playing good enough ball to compete in the playoffs. Anfernee Simons won't be here, and neither will Grant. We don't yet have our backup point guard of the future. We don't have our starting 4 of the future. We might have our 3, but who knows. We may not have our starting 5 of the future. Ayton had a good year, but we ain't paying him a max contract. We don't even know what Scoot will be.. is his ceiling Jru Holiday (respectable, but not THAT GUY you build around) or something greater? Same goes for Shae. For all we know, he could turn out to be the next Booker or a carbon copy of Will Barton.

Ayton will likely be pushing 30 by the time we're ready to compete in the playoffs. That's not a hot take. Even in the best-case scenario maybe he's 28 and we get a few good years out of him before his body starts breaking down. Then what? Ayton's time to shine is over the next five years, not starting in five years from now. Pretty sure he knows that and so does Portland's F.O.
Very few teams have a backup pg of the future. What the hell is that even anyway?

By year 3 and 4 in the NBA players, even young ones, have pretty much shown their potential. Very few players make significant leaps in talent and skill after year 4. Also, I would expect a front office to be able to build a team around said players in that time frame. If Sharpe and Henderson show significant improvement by then, and this team still hasn't made a playoff push in a couple years, then that's a failure on the front office. There is zero reason why a core of Henderson, Ayton, and Sharpe can't make the playoffs in 2 years besides either they fail to grow, or the front office fails to build around them. You might be ok with waiting 5 more years to make the playoffs, but 99% of the fan base is not
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Re: Blazers 2023-2024 Thread

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Very few teams have a backup pg of the future. What the hell is that even anyway?

By year 3 and 4 in the NBA players, even young ones, have pretty much shown their potential. Very few players make significant leaps in talent and skill after year 4. Also, I would expect a front office to be able to build a team around said players in that time frame. If Sharpe and Henderson show significant improvement by then, and this team still hasn't made a playoff push in a couple years, then that's a failure on the front office. There is zero reason why a core of Henderson, Ayton, and Sharpe can't make the playoffs in 2 years besides either they fail to grow, or the front office fails to build around them. You might be on with waiting 5 more years to make the playoffs, but 99% of the fan base is not
Most winning teams have a clear backup PG. Assuming that we're going to trade Simons (which we should), we don't even have -a- backup point guard. That's what that is. We don't even have any reliable scorers on the bench. Banton was a nice story last season, but he was getting a ton of shots on a tanking team against teams that knew they could whip us with minimal effort.

The issue you're missing here is that Scoot/Shae can't drag this team through the playoffs by themselves. We literally just spent a decade watching that movie with Dame and CJ. We also won't get deep into the playoffs with our two best players and scorers being two guards. That's just not today's NBA. This roster isn't yet complete. It could possibly be complete after a strong 2025 draft, assuming we get a high lottery pick -- so then add three to four years to 2025 for that player to grow into what we'd need him to become. That puts us into 2028 or maybe 2029, hence why the smart move is trading Ayton while his value his high.

This team is NOT a playoff team in 2025. Just no way. It might start looking that way by the season's end, but no. And nobody should want us to sneak in through the play-in and get spanked by Denver, Minnesota, OKC, etc.

Cronin has made it pretty clear in his recent pressers that Portland is in a "talent acquisition phase" and that we don't have the talent on the roster to compete. It's one of the interesting storylines this season because while Joe is saying we need more talent, Chauncey is saying we should compete for the playoffs right now. But this Portland F.O. is built to evaluate talent, find diamonds in the rough, and take advantage of draft picks, and I'd be SHOCKED if Cronin & co. blew their chances in a generationally great draft in order to get spanked by Denver in Round 1.
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