Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

[duckfan22]

So slow playing a media deal is going to
kill a conference. Different commish same
same results. My feelings is there not close to a
Media deal or they release a deal trying to keep
the conference together in the next day or so.

With the powers that run the pac 12 maybe Oregon
should look to move. I would hate that but it might be
a good business move

[pezsez1]

I wouldn't say I'm "optimistic" about the Pac. Just saying that if the remaining schools stick together then going to the Big-12 is still pretty much a lateral move.

We also know the Pac-12 presidents had agreed to a GoR framework, so the concern of being locked into a bad long-term arrangement wouldn't be an issue by staying home.

No idea what the B-12 GoR framework would be.

[wepto]

I kinda think the best option would be for UO/UW to leave the Pac-12 together, state that they are package deal, and take the best offer.

[dthomas=ddixon]

I wouldn't say I'm "optimistic" about the Pac. Just saying that if the remaining schools stick together then going to the Big-12 is still pretty much a lateral move.

We also know the Pac-12 presidents had agreed to a GoR framework, so the concern of being locked into a bad long-term arrangement wouldn't be an issue by staying home.

No idea what the B-12 GoR framework would be.

That’s an optimistic view, IMO. There’s no TV deal and no reason to stay in the conference. Schools like UA, ASU, OSU, etc. have to be proactive otherwise they’ll be left in the lurch.

[pezsez1]

There’s no TV deal and no reason to stay in the conference.

Like I said, if no other schools bolt in the coming days then we'll know whether there's actually a deal on the verge of being made.

[duckfan22]

Pez. I love your optimism and would love
You to be right but surely the powers to be
Have slow rolled it. How are these media company's
going seek a deal now. My guess is they water
Down the deal with only 9 teams left.

[pezsez1]

Pez. I love your optimism

Dude, I'm not optimistic LOL. This whole situation is a massive dumpster fire. But if the Pac is close to an actual deal then I simply see a sideways move to the Big-12 as moving into a larger dumpster fire.

We can all speculate all we want, but in reality none of us know how close the Pac is to a deal. Colorado has Big-12 roots and is a bottom-feeder program that doesn't have much of a future in elite conference realignment, so I'm not really surprised by Colorado making what hindsight might show to be a panic move.

We'll just have to wait and see. This situation sucks but Colorado's decision really doesn't "show" anything we didn't already know. What WILL provide clarity is how other players at the table respond.

I'm watching the game with a bit of dread, just like everyone else.

[SuperDuck]

My best guess as to the scenarios in order of most likely:

Oregon ( and probably Washington, maybe more) join the Big 12.

Oregon and Washington join the Big 10 with a greatly reduced tv payout share. They have no leverage and would probably take whatever share the Big 10 offered.

The PAC simply swaps SDSU for CU. This would be the number 1 scenario if league management was better.

I think this is spot on for a quick fix. That would bring in the huge San Diego market and would keep the conference afloat until they can find other teams to join.

Another thought for a 10th team is to invite SMU right away. Their cost to exit the AAC is only $10-$15M and they have boosters with deep pockets who've been waiting for them to be in a position to join a Power-5 conference.

I read an article earlier where someone mentioned potentially adding Air Force (Colorado Springs & Denver markets), Colorado State (Add Fort Collins) and/or UNLV.

I also wonder what the situations are with Texas-El Paso (UTEP and Texas-San Antonio (UTSA)? El Paso and San Antonio are both large markets.

I think we have several options that we could implement. The key is to move FAST before anyone else leaves.

[squintsdd]

I still think it makes the most sense to make a west coast Pac work but Rob will steer the ship to the best harbor.

Agree. My first reaction to the news of Colorado bolting was "whoa," but when thinking through available options the best alternative still seems to be staying the course (for now) and keeping the Pac alive.

The Big-12 is the ultimate lateral move and adding the Pac's worst team doesn't really help with that. The Pac still has better brands and more competitive teams with expansion options and covetted nighttime programming. Obviously, losing a school is bad for stability, but I'm curious to see actual Day 2 reporting on this and to find out whether the commissioner has any moves up his sleeve. Also curious to see what kind of statements come out from other Pac athletic departments/presidents' offices.

This could be the start of dominos falling, but if there really is a framework for a Pac media deal that's close to approval then the response to Colorado's departure should be a resounding "oh." Denver is a good-sized media market (maybe third or fourth of the remaining Pac teams) but that could easily be replaced while having one fewer mouth to feed in the meantime.

If anything, Colorado's departure should put pressure on all parties involved (Pac, Apple, ESPN, etc) to work with greater urgency to wrap things up. That has to be especially true for streaming partners which have been aggressively seeking partners in the sports landscape. You'd think a potential streaming partner would have just as much on the line re: the conference's survival.

But if the media deal really is just a big bag of hope then I also trust Mullens will guide us to the best possible outcome.

It's not just CU leaving, there are 3 schools leaving the Pac12, CU will just be the latest.

I would guess there is little framework on a media deal, otherwise Colorado would've had its questions answered when they asked about it. When a conference is falling apart, and a program says "look, it's been long enough. Tell us where we're at, or we're leaving" and there's no answer, it's a good sign that they're nothing close to resembling what the schools are looking for. My personal assumption, there are no significant offers. Kliavkoff is waiting and hoping the Pac12 performs well during the season to see if stronger options come up. This process was and always has been planned to go into the football season.

Lastly, leaving in a lateral move is much more desirable than being left in the cold

Hang on, I've got to disagree with the part about a lateral move being desirable. The most important thing is not getting locked into a longterm GOR like the ACC schools are dealing with. If a lateral move maintains flexibility, fine. If it doesn't, there is no way I'd want to be stuck in an ironclad contract with the B12 for 13 years.

Nothing is ironclad, and with the pockets Oregon has, a buyout would be easy

[pezsez1]

I really wish the Pac would invite UNLV just so we could establish Las Vegas as a Pac city. I don't even care if UNLV doesn't really bring much to the table, that would be a fansastic branding move (and fun for the fans) in what is probably America's fastest-growing sports city.

[greenyellow]

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[UOducksTK1]

Pac-9

[UOducksTK1]

If I were a betting man, I'd call Oregon to the Big 12 soon. I also figure Washington would join. They get a huge slice of the northwest.

[greenyellow]

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[spacefrog13x]

This is giving me flashbacks to a co-worker from years ago who kept getting extensions on a project. Literally months overdue. He then quit and it turned out he did zero work and was just trying to run out the clock while he job hunted. George K is that co-worker.