Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

[DuckMastaFunk]

My turn to share a rumor:

https://twitter.com/MHver3

No idea how trustworthy this guy is or how often he's been wrong before, but I could see a deal like the one he describes (which aligns with the other 200m rumor) being enough to save the conference.

With a deal like this, $200m is basically the floor, but most of the incumbent schools (without mathing this too hard) would probably end up with $25 million-ish per year. Oregon, Washington and Utah would probably come out a bit better because of certain fund distributions based on previous win-loss records. (Worth noting, Arizona would not really benefit here considering how bad they've been.)

Another key detail here: Apple would give a one-time payment to buy the Pac-12's comcast debt and also assume control and costs of running the Pac-12 network.

Cost to subscribers: $1 add-on per quarter. (Love that, but I already have Apple TV.)

The deal would also give just half shares to new members, leaving more for the incumbets to divvy up. (Again, worth noting, Arizona leaving would actually be good for remaining conference members that stay put.)

Probably would have actually been on par with the Big-12 had Colorado not left, but this isn't a terrible deal considering most of the college football world had written the conference off for dead. I'd hope Oregon would take this deal rather than jump to the Big-12 and be locked in there until 2111.

Not super confident in his “sources”.

MHver3
@MHver3
·
Jul 2, 2022
My source just informed me that Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona State have applied for membership with the B12. Things are getting crazy!

[buckmarkduck]

My turn to share a rumor:

https://twitter.com/MHver3

No idea how trustworthy this guy is or how often he's been wrong before, but I could see a deal like the one he describes (which aligns with the other 200m rumor) being enough to save the conference.

With a deal like this, $200m is basically the floor, but most of the incumbent schools (without mathing this too hard) would probably end up with $25 million-ish per year. Oregon, Washington and Utah would probably come out a bit better because of certain fund distributions based on previous win-loss records. (Worth noting, Arizona would not really benefit here considering how bad they've been.)

Another key detail here: Apple would give a one-time payment to buy the Pac-12's comcast debt and also assume control and costs of running the Pac-12 network.

Cost to subscribers: $1 add-on per quarter. (Love that, but I already have Apple TV.)

The deal would also give just half shares to new members, leaving more for the incumbets to divvy up. (Again, worth noting, Arizona leaving would actually be good for remaining conference members that stay put.)

Probably would have actually been on par with the Big-12 had Colorado not left, but this isn't a terrible deal considering most of the college football world had written the conference off for dead. I'd hope Oregon would take this deal rather than jump to the Big-12 and be locked in there until 2111.

Then he posts that everyone’s share will go down every year over 5 years.

[greenyellow]

What statements has Mullens made?

It does seem like this situation hasn't really affected recruiting a lot. Like Lanning said in the presser, Oregon will be fine as long as they continue to have great facilities and bring in great talent and coach them up. Seems like the Oregon brand is strong and somebody will want the ducks. I'm guessing that bit about signing their life away made them shy away from the Big 12.

I imagine the AD's for Oregon and Washington are on the phone a little these days. Interesting times.

Here's the quote from Mullens last week:

"Today’s request for a contract extension for coach Lanning is the first part of a bold vision to ensure that Oregon football and Oregon athletics remain competitive at the highest level of college athletics into the future."

When he says it's just the first part of a bold vision, I don't think he's just talking about keeping an up-and-coming football HC. It could also be about the new practice facility as well, but I've seen/heard others suggest it potentially has to do with potential media deals and realignment.

[pezsez1]

My source just informed me that Arizona, Colorado, Utah, and Arizona State have applied for membership with the B12. Things are getting crazy!

Like I said, I don't really trust what these "insiders" say. Always better to trust real sports journalists who've cultivated real sources, preferably those with first-hand information. But I do like the framework of that hypothetical deal. It also has increases for subscriber figures, which is kind of cool because that would include subs from outside the Pac's traditional TV footprint.

Also, regarding Mullens, this was from 10 days ago:

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2023/0 ... -deal.html

Mullens said it remains Oregon’s best option to stay in the Pac-12 going forward because of traditional rivalries, recruiting footprint, alumni footprint and a postseason opportunities.

“It’s a path that we’ve proven can get us to the playoff and in an expanded playoff I think that path is even enhanced,” Mullens said.

He also said:

“The macroeconomic conditions have improved,” Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens said. “There are more people at the table, as you heard George say, so that’s why I’m more confident than ever. There’s a lot of interested parties for all the right reasons. Now I think we’re closer than ever and I think we’re really close.”

And I honestly don't think two bottom feeders leaving changes that equation too much. Now it's just a question of whether the money works. I think it will.

[squintsdd]

My turn to share a rumor:

https://twitter.com/MHver3

No idea how trustworthy this guy is or how often he's been wrong before, but I could see a deal like the one he describes (which aligns with the other 200m rumor) being enough to save the conference.

With a deal like this, $200m is basically the floor, but most of the incumbent schools (without mathing this too hard) would probably end up with $25 million-ish per year. Oregon, Washington and Utah would probably come out a bit better because of certain fund distributions based on previous win-loss records. (Worth noting, Arizona would not really benefit here considering how bad they've been.)

Another key detail here: Apple would give a one-time payment to buy the Pac-12's comcast debt and also assume control and costs of running the Pac-12 network.

Cost to subscribers: $1 add-on per quarter. (Love that, but I already have Apple TV.)

The deal would also give just half shares to new members, leaving more for the incumbets to divvy up. (Again, worth noting, Arizona leaving would actually be good for remaining conference members that stay put.)

Probably would have actually been on par with the Big-12 had Colorado not left, but this isn't a terrible deal considering most of the college football world had written the conference off for dead. I'd hope Oregon would take this deal rather than jump to the Big-12 and be locked in there until 2111.

That dude is all over the place. He has literally thrown out every single possible scenario hoping one of them will stick

[Duck07]

Then he posts that everyone’s share will go down every year over 5 years.

Well the upshot of that 5 year timeline would be that the B1G might be ready to take on more schools once its over if those escalator clauses don't make up for those changes as everyone gets paid more equally. (From the wording its seem obvious that their viewership metric is going to put Oregon in the #1 distribution ranking)

I'm hopeful that we might actually end up in a very advantageous position with Apple in that there are a massive amount of Iphone users already. I also think there is a way that Apple could market the Academic side of our schools within the Conference and that we might see a day in the future where classes/courses are streamed through Apple rather than some of the boring public-access type content that exists.

We should also play some pre-season basketball games in countries that have a lot of Iphone users. Like this one country that 99.49% of the smartphone market in...North Korea. Or maybe a Japan, South Korea, Australia 3-game series even if its Pac teams playing each other it would be a good idea to build the Oregon brand overseas as much as possible when it comes to future streaming eyeballs. Much like our attempt to capture the East Coast market 25 years ago, we need to take this proverbial lemon and see how we can make lemonade and that seems like utilizing streaming to its full potential.

[pezsez1]

Yep, I'm excited to see the details. Definitely won't be B1G money (and maybe not quite Big-12 money) but I think it will be comparable to the Big-12 and with the huge benefit of not actually BEING in the Big-12.

I'd bet $20 though that the Pac's top teams have known the details for weeks and that this deal wouldn't be presented unless all were on board.

Also found this interesting:

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/foo ... 12-in-2024

It appears the Pac-12 might have interest in helping to buy out SDSU. Funny, because I think someone on this forum who tends to be correct about a lot of things predicted that might happen.

[greenyellow]

Former Fox Sports exec Bob Thompson is shooting down part of the supposed MHver3 scoop on the Pac-12 deal.

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[pezsez1]

AP reporting that the meeting is happening tomorrow! Exciting. Hopefully this leads to a quick resolution and we can all move on.

[dthomas=ddixon]

Seems to me like this is the schools forcing GK to show that the media deal is officially a nothing burger so they can bail. The rest of the schools can then accept whatever back door deals they’ve been making without looking like they torpedoed the conference.

[pezsez1]

Heard on the radio that the Pac-12/9 regents meeting starts in a few minutes. Buckle up, today could get nuts.

[Duck07]

I think its Jon Wilner who has said that Comcast number is not in the 50-60M range but above 70M

[UOducksTK1]

MHver3 is a propaganda machine, avoid him..

Anyway, it'll be nice to get some closure on certain open items, such as the media deal. Soon!

[greenyellow]

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[pezsez1]

The question is, which executives want to stay and get a deal vs. leave for the Big-12?

And if the rumored framework we've seen is the essence of the deal at hand, could the possible departures of up to three schools be incentivizing others to stay with higher rev shares? I could see Oregon getting approx $30 mil/year under the deal being floated by "insiders" if a few incumbents left and we backfilled with sizable G5 markets.

Also wondering about the nature of this convo. Was the collective response "hell no, tell Apple to step it up or there's no deal," or is it "we can work with this, but we need a few things tweaked," like maybe easing the declining shares for incumbents over the life of the deal.