Ducks Commits Results

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[UOducksTK1]

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dang

[pudgejeff]

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You could see it at the saturday night lights camp or whatever it was, he was the best player there and it wasn't even close. Class of 2021 BTW.

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Patrick Herbert had 3 TD receptions in Sheldon's win over Thurston.

[UOducksTK1]

Millen's numbers... wow

JR Waters had a nice TD catch on Friday:

[StevensTechU]

I’m going to be really intrigued by what Millen does against the best teams on his schedule. I’m incredibly hopeful. I’m not real high on Burmeister or Shough, and am holding out hope that Millen can be the next guy if Herbert can stick around for his senior year.

[Everythingsducky]

I’m going to be really intrigued by what Millen does against the best teams on his schedule. I’m incredibly hopeful. I’m not real high on Burmeister or Shough, and am holding out hope that Millen can be the next guy if Herbert can stick around for his senior year.

I get your take on Burmeister, but what is it that Shough doesn’t show you, with what little we’ve seen, or in his HS vids?

[StevensTechU]

I’m going to be really intrigued by what Millen does against the best teams on his schedule. I’m incredibly hopeful. I’m not real high on Burmeister or Shough, and am holding out hope that Millen can be the next guy if Herbert can stick around for his senior year.

I get your take on Burmeister, but what is it that Shough doesn’t show you, with what little we’ve seen, or in his HS vids?

I got very into QB recruiting a few years ago, and built out a sort of mental projection model based on reviewing information (stats, film, and records) for a big group of quarterbacks who panned out or didn't, and did my best to identify traits that boded well for a QB's college success. Like any projection based on a bunch of variables, no single one is so important that it replaces the whole rest of the model; in other words, no single thing is make-or-break.

Of the things I identified was the importance of a strong performance against the best teams on one's schedule. When I researched Justin Herbert, I cared a lot less about his stats against Thurston and a lot more when playing Jesuit and Tigard, and to the extent possible, looked at whether the outcome of the game would have been worse if they weren't in the game. Herbert's team took Jesuit into 2OT to start his senior year despite being having no other D1 players on his team. Dennis Dixon took San Leandro further than they almost ever had before, or since. Vernon Adams carried a perennially-terrible team to the playoffs. Marcus Mariota was the best player on a state champion team, same with McKenzie Milton (and Mililani fell apart when he got hurt one season). Flip side: Allen HS (Texas) was worse when Seth Green was under center. Morgan Mahalak's talented Marin Catholic team beat outmanned patsies but got wasted by El Cerrito in the playoffs.

Cue Shough. Hamilton is a talented team with a long winning history. With Shough at the helm, they go 8-4. They lost to Queen Creek who they don't have any business losing to, 28-41, early in the season. Late, they lose 14-50 to Chandler where he's playing against D1 talent. Finally, they get worked by Perry 14-72.

It's not a death sentence. I'm not saying Shough can't be a competent quarterback at the collegiate level. But, based on what I've seen and being pretty objective here, I'm not hopeful. His resume doesn't say "rises to the occasion," which is a MUST for a collegiate quarterback.

[Duckenstein]

I'm very intrigued

Can you map this out for QB recruits we looked atthe last few years?

Kyler Murray
Tate Martel
Sam darnold
Etc

I’m going to be really intrigued by what Millen does against the best teams on his schedule. I’m incredibly hopeful. I’m not real high on Burmeister or Shough, and am holding out hope that Millen can be the next guy if Herbert can stick around for his senior year.

I get your take on Burmeister, but what is it that Shough doesn’t show you, with what little we’ve seen, or in his HS vids?

I got very into QB recruiting a few years ago, and built out a sort of mental projection model based on reviewing information (stats, film, and records) for a big group of quarterbacks who panned out or didn't, and did my best to identify traits that boded well for a QB's college success. Like any projection based on a bunch of variables, no single one is so important that it replaces the whole rest of the model; in other words, no single thing is make-or-break.

Of the things I identified was the importance of a strong performance against the best teams on one's schedule. When I researched Justin Herbert, I cared a lot less about his stats against Thurston and a lot more when playing Jesuit and Tigard, and to the extent possible, looked at whether the outcome of the game would have been worse if they weren't in the game. Herbert's team took Jesuit into 2OT to start his senior year despite being having no other D1 players on his team. Dennis Dixon took San Leandro further than they almost ever had before, or since. Vernon Adams carried a perennially-terrible team to the playoffs. Marcus Mariota was the best player on a state champion team, same with McKenzie Milton (and Mililani fell apart when he got hurt one season). Flip side: Allen HS (Texas) was worse when Seth Green was under center. Morgan Mahalak's talented Marin Catholic team beat outmanned patsies but got wasted by El Cerrito in the playoffs.

Cue Shough. Hamilton is a talented team with a long winning history. With Shough at the helm, they go 8-4. They lost to Queen Creek who they don't have any business losing to, 28-41, early in the season. Late, they lose 14-50 to Chandler where he's playing against D1 talent. Finally, they get worked by Perry 14-72.

It's not a death sentence. I'm not saying Shough can't be a competent quarterback at the collegiate level. But, based on what I've seen and being pretty objective here, I'm not hopeful. His resume doesn't say "rises to the occasion," which is a MUST for a collegiate quarterback.

[StevensTechU]

I'm very intrigued

Can you map this out for QB recruits we looked atthe last few years?

Kyler Murray
Tate Martel
Sam darnold
Etc

Haha. I'm sure you can! I use(d) MaxPreps to find individual performance and team scores, as well as how the team did before the QB in question was the starter. Separately, you can use MaxPreps to look at state and national rankings to get an idea of how good the opponents are, or you can look up the state tournament bracket from the previous year as a reasonable proxy.

Off the top of my head, Murray and Martel both QB'd top 5 teams in the country. I want to say Martel was undefeated his senior year, and the team took a mild step back with Dorian Thompson-Hyphen at the helm the following year.

I would advise that you pay attention to rush numbers in addition to pass numbers. Part of my 'hypothesis' here is that against good teams you see how QBs fair against pressure that they don't typically see against bad teams. A lot of really competitive guys will scramble for first downs against the pressure to keep the chains moving. Team score is more important than completion percentage against a good team.

[Duckenstein]

Sadly, I don't have that kind of time

But I agree with your basic premise, "gamers" and "winners" over guys that practice well but might have anxiety issues or other psychological barriers

I'm very intrigued

Can you map this out for QB recruits we looked atthe last few years?

Kyler Murray
Tate Martel
Sam darnold
Etc

Haha. I'm sure you can! I use(d) MaxPreps to find individual performance and team scores, as well as how the team did before the QB in question was the starter. Separately, you can use MaxPreps to look at state and national rankings to get an idea of how good the opponents are, or you can look up the state tournament bracket from the previous year as a reasonable proxy.

Off the top of my head, Murray and Martel both QB'd top 5 teams in the country. I want to say Martel was undefeated his senior year, and the team took a mild step back with Dorian Thompson-Hyphen at the helm the following year.

I would advise that you pay attention to rush numbers in addition to pass numbers. Part of my 'hypothesis' here is that against good teams you see how QBs fair against pressure that they don't typically see against bad teams. A lot of really competitive guys will scramble for first downs against the pressure to keep the chains moving. Team score is more important than completion percentage against a good team.

[StevensTechU]

Curiosity got the best of me.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kyler-m ... -stats.htm

Murray went undefeated his senior year. The team's three toughest opponents (DeSoto, Trinity, and Cypress Ranch), Murray completed around 60% of his passes. Against DeSoto he was only 7-for-23, but ran 25 times for 196 yards. That's compelling evidence of a guy who finds a way to win. He had 427 yards passing against Trinity and 316 against Cypress Ranch.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/tate-ma ... -stats.htm

Martell also went undefeated his senior year. In the two toughest games, he was 13-of-19 against St Thomas Aquinas with 3 TDs and 0 INTs and ran for 84 yards, and against St John Bosco he was just 7-of-15 but they were bombs and was again 3 TDs to 0 INTs, this time 111 rushing yards. Dorian Thompson-Robinson lost 2 games after Martell left.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/sam-dar ... -stats.htm

San Clemente HS went 2-8 before Darnold, and 12-2 with Darnold. Even in their 2 losses, they didn't score less than 37 points.

[Duckenstein]

I have a feeling chips winners and team captains philosophy holds pretty true

We definitely need a second QB recruit this year, we've been thin for years

Curiosity got the best of me.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/kyler-m ... -stats.htm

Murray went undefeated his senior year. The team's three toughest opponents (DeSoto, Trinity, and Cypress Ranch), Murray completed around 60% of his passes. Against DeSoto he was only 7-for-23, but ran 25 times for 196 yards. That's compelling evidence of a guy who finds a way to win. He had 427 yards passing against Trinity and 316 against Cypress Ranch.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/tate-ma ... -stats.htm

Martell also went undefeated his senior year. In the two toughest games, he was 13-of-19 against St Thomas Aquinas with 3 TDs and 0 INTs and ran for 84 yards, and against St John Bosco he was just 7-of-15 but they were bombs and was again 3 TDs to 0 INTs, this time 111 rushing yards. Dorian Thompson-Robinson lost 2 games after Martell left.

http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/sam-dar ... -stats.htm

San Clemente HS went 2-8 before Darnold, and 12-2 with Darnold. Even in their 2 losses, they didn't score less than 37 points.