MBB: Oregon @ Cal (Jan. 18, Wed 7 PM Pac-12 Network)

[UOducksTK1]

I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but I definitely think people are counting this team out too early. Couisnard and Barthelemy have looked good since their return, which is adding to guard depth. They still have some shooting concerns, but the defense is going to take a huge step forward as everyone gets comfortable playing with each other, and as they employ more press. While the committee definitely looks heavy at NET, they aren't solely focused on the numbers. If the Ducks finish strong, they can still take into account how shorthanded the Ducks were at the beginning of the season.

The schedule is pretty favorable going forward with most of their toughest games coming at home, outside of going to Arizona for those games, but I think they are actually a really tough matchup for Arizona, as they have a lot of bigs to counter Arizona's strength on the interior. Arizona's perimeter shooting is not all that much better. I also think depending on the matchups, they are capable of making a deep run in the Pac-12 tourney. I could easily see a 12-3 finish (including potential Pac-12 tournament games in here) with a couple of Quad 1 wins, which I think would be enough to sneak in.

A run in the Pac-12 tourney is probably our only hope of the tournament, look at Beavers not to long ago haha.

12-3 is very ambitious. We are 3-2 with Cousinard back. And while our defense looks better, we are still giving up 72ppg the last 3 games.

I just don't see it yet. Not saying it couldn't happen, but I see us finishing about 8-4 (maybe 7-5) in a optimistic scenario.

@Stanford/Colorado/Utah 2-1
@Arizona/@ASU/USC/UCLA 2-2 (Maybe 1-3)
@Washington/@WSU 1-1
OSU/Cal/Stanford 3-0 (Maybe 2-1)

19-12 still wouldn't get us in. At that point we'd likely have to win the Pac-12 tournament.

[UOducksTK1]

And not to throw dirt at you droop, cuz I like your contributions and like the optimism.

But last year you said that "I do think they [Oregon] are better than both LA teams." after Oregon beat UCLA at home last year.

UCLA and USC finished at 27-8 and 26-8, while Oregon finished at 20-15. So maybe your optimism overfloweth.

[droop10]

And not to throw dirt at you droop, cuz I like your contributions and like the optimism.

But last year you said that "I do think they [Oregon] are better than both LA teams." after Oregon beat UCLA at home last year.

UCLA and USC finished at 27-8 and 26-8, while Oregon finished at 20-15. So maybe your optimism overfloweth.

Haha, sounds like something I may have said. That may have been a matter of matchups favoring Oregon, but I do tend to get overly optimistic about the basketball team! That said, I always waited for the cohesiveness to come together last year and it just didn't happen. I do think if I recall correctly, Richardson got injured shortly after, and wasn't the same after. But that team just never gelled like I thought they would. I do feel like I've seen this team play better as a unit over the past few games. Obviously there's a chance it's just a mirage, but if they continue to play team basketball, I think they may have found something.

I also do think the first couple games of Couisnard should be taken with a grain of salt, as he was still working into game shape after a long layoff. I'm just expecting steady improvement and cohesiveness as the guys get used to where they fit in the rotations. Also, we've seen defensive intensity and the press really pick up starting with the Arizona game. I think Altman feels more comfortable going to it, now that they have more bodies to rotate in. With the short rotations, there was risk of wearing guys down by playing the press consistently. I still fully believe in Altman getting the most out of guys, with last year being the anomaly. A good majority of the first half of this season consisted of guys seeing a lot of PT that won't likely see the floor down the stretch.

They will have off nights shooting, but I think this defense is capable of reaching the levels of the 2019 squad that stifled opponents down the stretch and didn't need to put up tons of points. They obviously haven't gotten there at this point, and it's hard to take a lot from an awful Cal opponent, so we'll see if it plays out, but they have a lot of length to be really disruptive.

[northbeachsf]

I wish I was as optimistic! There are just too many holes to try and fill this year IMO. Cousnard is a career sub 40% volume shooter. Not sure he is going to be able to continue this on offense. The defense is ranked 7th in the conference. The FT shooting is a mess. Perimeter shooting is subpar.....

[UOducksTK1]

And not to throw dirt at you droop, cuz I like your contributions and like the optimism.

But last year you said that "I do think they [Oregon] are better than both LA teams." after Oregon beat UCLA at home last year.

UCLA and USC finished at 27-8 and 26-8, while Oregon finished at 20-15. So maybe your optimism overfloweth.

Haha, sounds like something I may have said. That may have been a matter of matchups favoring Oregon, but I do tend to get overly optimistic about the basketball team! That said, I always waited for the cohesiveness to come together last year and it just didn't happen. I do think if I recall correctly, Richardson got injured shortly after, and wasn't the same after. But that team just never gelled like I thought they would. I do feel like I've seen this team play better as a unit over the past few games. Obviously there's a chance it's just a mirage, but if they continue to play team basketball, I think they may have found something.

I also do think the first couple games of Couisnard should be taken with a grain of salt, as he was still working into game shape after a long layoff. I'm just expecting steady improvement and cohesiveness as the guys get used to where they fit in the rotations. Also, we've seen defensive intensity and the press really pick up starting with the Arizona game. I think Altman feels more comfortable going to it, now that they have more bodies to rotate in. With the short rotations, there was risk of wearing guys down by playing the press consistently. I still fully believe in Altman getting the most out of guys, with last year being the anomaly. A good majority of the first half of this season consisted of guys seeing a lot of PT that won't likely see the floor down the stretch.

They will have off nights shooting, but I think this defense is capable of reaching the levels of the 2019 squad that stifled opponents down the stretch and didn't need to put up tons of points. They obviously haven't gotten there at this point, and it's hard to take a lot from an awful Cal opponent, so we'll see if it plays out, but they have a lot of length to be really disruptive.

Fair enough! I will say this too, to justify your stance…

If Oregon does finish off really strong, the tournament committee has to take into account how many injuries we had in the first half of this season. Making a few of those losses possibly wins with a full roster.

[droop10]

I wish I was as optimistic! There are just too many holes to try and fill this year IMO. Cousnard is a career sub 40% volume shooter. Not sure he is going to be able to continue this on offense. The defense is ranked 7th in the conference. The FT shooting is a mess. Perimeter shooting is subpar.....

Free Throw shooting does concern me, especially come tourney time should they get in. I think Couisnard can be a valuable offensive weapon if he plays within the system, as he has so far. The current defensive rankings I'm not too concerned about. They were forced into suboptimal defensive lineups due to all the guards being out with injury. There were walk-ons, as well as bigs being forced to guard opposing team guards, because there weren't enough guards to put on the floor. Couisnard strength coming in was his perimeter D, so he'll help a bit with that. This is all projection on my part. There's a lot of potential on this team. Do they have flaws? Absolutely, but many flawed teams sneak into the NCAA tournament, and like I said, I think they'll get a little leeway for the slow start. These rants could completely blow up in my face, but I'd rather continue to have hope for this season rather than having given up!