glazeduck wrote:As far as the 'math' is concerned...
We've got several kids coming off major knee injuries and several others with suspect grades...
If we have the opportunity, I think we'll overbook this class by 4 or 5 guys.
You are correct about that and I agree we may overbook the class. But not too much, because next year we will have fewer scholarships to give, and I'd imagine that Kelly will build off this year's success for an even stronger class next year.
Does anyone have the inside info on the status of Hardrick, Garrick and Wilson????
There have been questions regarding these guys' verbals since day one and the information must be on one of the subscriber boards because everyone is talking about it but I haven't seen it elaborated here. Care to help me out?
From what's been said about those 3 so far, Hardrick is only a soft verbal until he visits in January and Garrick is a likely grayshirt due to a knee injury. I don't know anything about Wilson since nothing has been written or talked about him since his commitment.
Scout just had Hardrick listed as a commit. Now they list him as having High interest. Chip, on the other hand, doesn't accept verbal commits until the recruit has visited Oregon.
ChipKellyKapowski wrote:It sounds like there's still some question(s) about the Hardrick commitment, as well as Kyrie Wilson's academics. With that in mind, I would say we're definitely willing to take Lamar Dawson if he decides he wants to be a Duck.
Also, I don't think adding two more O linemen is entirely out of the question. They will not turn Westerman down if he wants to commit - and I think we have an excellent shot with him. That said I think it's unclear how much they are even after Asiata at this point.
QB and RB you're probably right about, but given the questions about Randall we could see a surprise between now and signing day.
At WR there's probably only one spot for either Story, Flowers, or Kelley, assuming Blackmon is on board. And if Lee were to commit, that probably wouldn't change.
It's difficult to speculate on the math... we have to figure that there's going to be some attrition we don't account for, and I think Colt and Tyson could very well end up as EEs.
Yeah I think we could still take one more LB as well. Both those commits you've mentioned still have some question marks. I probably should have mentioned Lawson, but I feel like he's going to stay close to home anyway
What we don't know is how many kids will be grey shirts; how many current roster kids may leave; how many current verbals who could have qualifying issues (some say at least 1); how many will be considered as early enrollees and counted against the '10 class; and finally, are all players who say they are Oregon verbals really Oregon verbals (Hardrick, Wilson, etc)?
So, given those uncertainties I choose to list a big group of kids at each position as players that are known to have interest in us. Here goes:
WR:
1. Devon Blackmon: he's not a silent, but many feel we're the strong fave
2. BJ Kelley: despite having his visit pushed back to Jan he's still a strong candidate to end up a Duck. All depends on what others they have rated higher commit before he trips
3. Ju'Juan Story: supposedly here this weekend. Soft to UF right now. Kind of a long shot, but fun to dream a little. If we make a huge impression this weekend and he holds off on UF or other southern schools, maybe a big win in the NC could push him our way. Info coming out this a.m. sounds like we made a strong impression on Ju'Juan.
4. Marquis Lee: he'll come in at an ATH, but I'm listing him here as he stated just yesterday he wants to play WR in college. Down to us, Cal, and USC. The fact he hasn't joined teammates at USC or Cal bodes well for us, but still going to be a tough pull as both schools are very tempting for him.
5. Hakeen Flowers: Scout shows with an offer, but DSA (Rivals) mods say he doesn't have one from the Ducks though their database says he does. He's certainly down the pecking order right now and very unlikely to end up a Duck.
6. Duron Carter: very unlikely this kid ends up in Eugene due to very suspect academics. Some say he likes us a lot, but there's been no stories on him from any recruiting services in a long time.
7. Anthony Denham: another JC who says he likes us a lot and wants to trip in Jan. We'd have to strike out badly on others for him to end up here and I doubt they want more than 1 JC WR and we have that guy now.
Summary: I don't believe there are any other WRs that the staff is looking at seriously. I think they want to end up with 4 min, so with Sumler & Vaughn in the fold (assuming Sumler's possible flirtations w/tripping other schools doesn't create a change), have to figure the first 2-3 that claim the spots will be in. Easier to see now why they are holding Kelley off as long as possible w/so many studs still in play.
OL:
1. Christian Westerman: appears as a possible 5th guy on the line for this class. Obviously they will keep a spot open for this top talent as long as he shows interest. He is a soft to UT and the parents sound like they'll give Muschamp and the new OL coach they hire a legit shot to retain him. Decent odds IMO of getting him as we have some very viable connections with Johnstone & Rowland, but still a long shot until he schedules a visit.
2. Paulay Asiata out of HI hasn't been entirely ruled out, but most feel it's doubtful he'll be visiting, so it's probably Westerman or bust.
Summary: most likely the 4 we currently have will be it.
TE:
1. Colt Lyerla: CL will obviously come in as an ATH, but I believe our staff will give him his first look on offense. We already have Christian French as a TE in this class, but he is way less of a polished receiver than Colt and my bet is French will eventually end up on D kind of like Dion Jordan.
2. Jon Davis: he made the trip here a few wks ago and we immediately became a serious option for him despite being a long time verbal to home state school Kentucky. Since then French has committed and there's been no update on Davis. Does that mean he's totally out of the picture now? Not necessarily, but most likely he'll end up sticking to his original UK commitment.
3. Brandon Fulse: most recent stories on him still have him mentioning us, but his faves are southern schools where he's from. Scout story dated 12/15 he said he had an in-home with one of our coaches, but since no scheduled visit came out of that meeting it's doubtful there's a lot of mutual interest right now.
Summary: many feel Lyerla is looking better & better to be a Duck. Despite the "issues" that continue to swirl around him he's a big need for this class esp considering he's the top in state kid and it would be embarrassing if we let him get away. If we whiff the question becomes do we go hard after Fulse or Davis? Hard to say as they are both tough pulls.
RB & QB:
Appear to be done with Carson's verbal. If Randall ends up with qualifying issues as some predict, would we pursue another QB? Kind of late in the game for that. One other player mentioned in Scout's forum a few wks ago is Shawn Johnson from Bakersfield. Rushed for 1900 yds. Poster said he heard a rumor he had an Oregon offer, but extremely unlikely. Would be a major back-up plan at RB or an ATH if lots of things fell thru.
Summary: Carson & the 2 QBs should be it.
D Line
1. DT Danny Shelton: big key is getting him back down to Eugene w/mom as word is she favors the home city Dawgs. DS says we still lead, even after his recent visit with the Huskies. Other UW reporters say he'll end up in Seattle, so this one is likely to go down to the wire. Mom factor is huge.
2. DT Kevin McReynolds: scheduled to visit on 1/14. Many feel we are still the team to beat despite his apparent infatuation w/UCLA and issues with rainy weather. I think if we have a good showing in the NC game and it doesn't rain cats & dogs when he trips, we're in pretty good shape.
3. DT Delvon Simmons: would luv to get this kid as I think his upside is tremendous. Not necessarily a package deal with teammate Brandon Jackson who we like at DE or possibly a big LB. Still tripping Florida, but hopefully their recent coaching issues will hurt their chances. Some feel we may be the favorite despite distance from home.
4. DT Mo Latu: he was scheduled to trip this month, but didn't happen. Some are saying we may be backing away, but nothing definitive been written in that regard. Hopefully he's still in play with the uncertainty that's still there with other DTs.
5. DT Christian Heyward: recently firmed up to trip here next month. We get the last visit, so hopefully he doesn't pull the trigger early. Hard to say w/CH as he's pretty quiet, but would be a terrific get for a big area of need.
6. DT Viliami Moala: considerably lower odds of landing VM, but most say we're still in it. Latest Scout story he said the Ducks could get his last trip. Favors Cal & USC. One poster on Scout said a Sacramento area HS coach told him he was a Duck commit, but there's no real legs to that story.
7. DT Isiah Norton: I only list him to list him. Very long odds as he hasn't mentioned us much and no trip scheduled
8. JC DT John Jenkins: even longer odds than Norton. There's a few rumors out there that he may have some interest in us despite being a soft verbal to Okie St. He would be a huge get, but no trip scheduled.
9. DE Brandon Jackson: most recent stories on him sound encouraging. Hard to say if he has an unconditional offer right now, but my guess is he still does. Likely ends up as a weak side DE, but LB isn't out of the question down the road.
10. DE Lake Koa-Ka'ai: hasn't been much written lately. Some feel Nebraska might be the leader. Hopefully the staff is still on him hard as we need some pure DEs for this class.
11. DE Greg Townsend: I list him only because in recent stories he usually mentions us, but only after faves USC, UW & TCU. Long shot to be a Duck.
Summary: this spot is the toughest one of any to try and nail down. I'm thinking at least 3, maybe 4 will come from amongst the list of 11 players listed. 1 DE & 2 DTs minimum. I like our chances with Shelton, McReynolds, & the 2 PA boys the most.
LBs:
1. Ryan Simmons: last Rivals article Simmons listed us as right at the top of his list. With uncertainties swirling around guys like Hardrick, Garrick & Wilson, Ryan could still be in play. Should be interesting to see what develops in these last 6 wks or so.
2. Lamar Dawson: hasn't been much intel on him lately, but still considered a tough pull to get him out of the south. Home state school of Kentucky is likely team to beat, but most feel we're keeping a spot open for him.
3. Leilon Willingham: like Simmons, this kid likes Oregon a lot, but right now I doubt he has an offer. Has the size to end up as an inside LB, but likely a back-up plan in case some spots open up late.
4. Tyrone Sauls: Scout had a story on him back in Oct where he said we were his leader and having a possible offer. Extremely doubtful he ends up in Eugene given Wallace's verbal and limited schollies available.
5. JC Princeton Jackson: Rivals ran a story on him a few wks ago where he stated we were his leader. Looks like a stud and played for Blynn JC in Texas. Doesn't have an offer from us and would appear a back-up plan if the need arose.
Summary: most feel Lamar Dawson is the only LB left that still has an unconditional offer. As I mentioned above, with uncertainly surrounding the status (Wilson-academics/offer?), Garrick (possible GS), Hardrick (likely has to visit to firm up) there's a lot that can still unfold at LB. We could be done, or possibly 1-2 guys still still emerge due to the questions still out there re the 3 mentioned. My bet is 1 more could end up a Duck.
DBs:
Most feel, with the commitment of Avery Walls to Cal, that we're likely done at DB. There is some speculation on some boards that a "wow" player like USC verbal DeAnthony Thomas could still be in play. Until he actually visits it's obviously just a rumor, though certainly an exciting one at that as he's one of the highest rated recruits in the country.
Summary: probably what we have now will be it.
Final summation/speculation: I think we may still have room for up to 10 more verbals due to factors I cited in my opening. If 10, then I would break it down like this as the best possible ending & top 5-7 class:
WR: 3 ( from group of: Blackmon, Kelley, Story, Lee, Denham)
TE: 1 (Lyerla)
OL or DB: 1 (Westerman or Thomas)
DL: 4 (from Shelton, Simmons, McReynolds, Latu, Heyward, Jackson, Koa-Ka'ai)
LB: 1 (from Simmons, Dawson, Willingham)
Unknown surprise: 1
Last edited by MacDuck on Sun Dec 19, 2010 4:35 pm, edited 6 times in total.
i think we end up snaring a few great players to round off this class including on the DL, which will be sweet if it happens!
i don't know what's up with some of the confusion surrounding the LBers but if i had to bet i'd say that Wilson doesn't have an offer (why offer so many sleepers at LB when we could get a 4 star at WR or DT????? Doesn't make any sense), Garrick will Greyshirt, and Hardrick just needs to visit (seems like a stud master)
Great job Mac.... Interesting on Moala. If he was a so called lock to Cal you would have thought he would have committed by now. Seems like he's hard to figure out....See Heimuli last year. Could we have another great surprise at DT on LOI day this year.
1. that we know every kid the coaches are recruiting because they are in a database.
2. see #1. wash, rinse and repeat.
it's a great point hines, and i think most peeps are actually assuming that there will at least be one "surprise."
however, as we get closer to signing day things get a lot clearer, as they do. it's hard to dispute that we have a good shot with a number of top, well-known prospects.
karlhungis wrote:If there is any truth to the Tosh to Texas rumors, I would love to see Gibson reconsider and come to Oregon with Lee.
hehehehe! yeah, wouldn't it be awesome to just blow **** up here in the home stretch, and steal Barr, Gibson and Walls from Cal! hehehehehe priceless....
karlhungis wrote:If there is any truth to the Tosh to Texas rumors, I would love to see Gibson reconsider and come to Oregon with Lee.
hehehehe! yeah, wouldn't it be awesome to just blow **** up here in the home stretch, and steal Barr, Gibson and Walls from Cal! hehehehehe priceless....
Obviously Wilcox has to first get hired by the Longhorns and that hasn't happened yet. If he goes to Texas the folks in Berkeley are likely to get very nervous. Heck, they're nervous already and nothing has even occurred. Love to see them squirm.
A minor point on the "math" discussion that I hadn't seen mentioned yet...
By my count we have (at most) 23 signed from last year's class - that's assuming our greyshirts are still around.
If any of our signees this year qualify as early-enrollees (as Lyerla is supposedly going to do) they will count on last year's class, which essentially means we can take as many as 27 if 2 are EEs (and we have enough schollies to support that many) w/out technically overbooking...
At least that's how I understand things...
Man... Lyerla, in a Duck's jersey come spring?!?! That's a fun thought for sure!
glazeduck wrote:A minor point on the "math" discussion that I hadn't seen mentioned yet...
By my count we have (at most) 23 signed from last year's class - that's assuming our greyshirts are still around.
If any of our signees this year qualify as early-enrollees (as Lyerla is supposedly going to do) they will count on last year's class, which essentially means we can take as many as 27 if 2 are EEs (and we have enough schollies to support that many) w/out technically overbooking...
At least that's how I understand things...
Man... Lyerla, in a Duck's jersey come spring?!?! That's a fun thought for sure!
Didn't one of the JC's say they would be here for spring ball?
