Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

[UOducksTK1]

Nobody on Twitter knows anything and their stories keep changing

B1G probably means Oregon stays relevant nationally

Big 12 probably means we've seen the last Oregon playoffs run

So I do understand why some fans are getting emotional

Who in the Big 12 is a threat to Oregon making the Playoffs?

The difference between the B1G and SEC vs the Big 12/18 and ACC is going to be the auto-bids given and the sheer difference in those Network payouts. Fox and ESPN run College Football as NBC has decided they aren't as interested in keeping up a major Sports Network and CBS is likely in the same boat. Fox and ESPN aren't going to overbid the ACC and Big 12/18 because they don't need to. (All the good ideas to compete against Fox and ESPN are DOA without LA)

A 12 team playoff ostensibly sees 6 spots for the B1G and SEC, 2 spots the Big 12/18 and ACC with 4 at-large selections based entirely upon the CFP rankings with the Top 4 getting a Bye and thus a very likely 3/4 of the Top 4 will come from the B1G/SEC so that Fox and ESPN can again protect their investments. (Even if you go to 16, take a guess how they'll split those auto-bids.

Further, while there are some people who are throwing things out of the air online (and reacting to everything as well), most educated fans can see the various options that are open for the teams and that while not privy to the specifics of negotiations, we can certainly see the writing on the wall and project what's most likely.

I think he's saying if Big 10/SEC end up doing their own playoff, Oregon would be on the outside looking in.

[DuckzRule]

Apparently Uncle Phil wants the Ducks to be in the Big Ten or SEC.

Embedded Tweet

[Duck07]

I think he's saying if Big 10/SEC end up doing their own playoff, Oregon would be on the outside looking in.

I don't believe for one moment that's what Fox or ESPN want when they currently own the rights to the ACC and Big 12 too. That seems like a pretty wild take that's incongruent with those facts.

[duckmaster]

Nobody on Twitter knows anything and their stories keep changing

B1G probably means Oregon stays relevant nationally

Big 12 probably means we've seen the last Oregon playoffs run

So I do understand why some fans are getting emotional

That seems quite drastic. Yes the B1G would be nice now but in the end if there continues to be major realignment Oregon will eventually get in with the big boys, Oregon is simply too valuable to be left behind. It may not be this year, but it will eventually happen.

Yeah anything is possible but imo most likely scenario is sec/B1G champion, with big 12 and acc as farm conferences

Clemson, fsu, Miami and Oregon would probably fade

[duckmaster]

Nobody on Twitter knows anything and their stories keep changing

B1G probably means Oregon stays relevant nationally

Big 12 probably means we've seen the last Oregon playoffs run

So I do understand why some fans are getting emotional

Who in the Big 12 is a threat to Oregon making the Playoffs?

The difference between the B1G and SEC vs the Big 12/18 and ACC is going to be the auto-bids given and the sheer difference in those Network payouts. Fox and ESPN run College Football as NBC has decided they aren't as interested in keeping up a major Sports Network and CBS is likely in the same boat. Fox and ESPN aren't going to overbid the ACC and Big 12/18 because they don't need to. (All the good ideas to compete against Fox and ESPN are DOA without LA)

A 12 team playoff ostensibly sees 6 spots for the B1G and SEC, 2 spots the Big 12/18 and ACC with 4 at-large selections based entirely upon the CFP rankings with the Top 4 getting a Bye and thus a very likely 3/4 of the Top 4 will come from the B1G/SEC so that Fox and ESPN can again protect their investments. (Even if you go to 16, take a guess how they'll split those auto-bids.

Further, while there are some people who are throwing things out of the air online (and reacting to everything as well), most educated fans can see the various options that are open for the teams and that while not privy to the specifics of negotiations, we can certainly see the writing on the wall and project what's most likely.

Why would the big 12 be offered a shot at the playoffs in this scenario?

The SEC #10 would be better most years than the big 12 #2

[Duck07]

Why would the big 12 be offered a shot at the playoffs in this scenario?

The SEC #10 would be better most years than the big 12 #2

Why would Fox kick its 2nd Conference out of the Playoff? What financial incentive is there in that?

[duckmaster]

Why would the big 12 be offered a shot at the playoffs in this scenario?

The SEC #10 would be better most years than the big 12 #2

Why would Fox kick its 2nd Conference out of the Playoff? What financial incentive is there in that?

I don't know any more than you do, it's all conjecture, but my bet is that the B1G and SEC become playoff level conferences and what's left of the Big 12 and ACC challenge the MWC and the like for an NIL level playoffs

[DuckzRule]

Why would the big 12 be offered a shot at the playoffs in this scenario?

The SEC #10 would be better most years than the big 12 #2

Why would Fox kick its 2nd Conference out of the Playoff? What financial incentive is there in that?

I don't know any more than you do, it's all conjecture, but my bet is that the B1G and SEC become playoff level conferences and what's left of the Big 12 and ACC challenge the MWC and the like for an NIL level playoffs

This is why Oregon NEEDS to be in the Big Ten, it's a much better conference than the Big 12

[Duck07]

Why would the big 12 be offered a shot at the playoffs in this scenario?

The SEC #10 would be better most years than the big 12 #2

Why would Fox kick its 2nd Conference out of the Playoff? What financial incentive is there in that?

I don't know any more than you do, it's all conjecture, but my bet is that the B1G and SEC become playoff level conferences and what's left of the Big 12 and ACC challenge the MWC and the like for an NIL level playoffs

Oh come on now, that's a simple question that doesn't need inside info to deduce. There is literally no benefit to Fox and ESPN keeping their 2nd Conferences outside of the playoff. The only question will be about the # of auto-bids each conference gets in an expanded playoff.

[OregonFan4Life]

Why would the big 12 be offered a shot at the playoffs in this scenario?

The SEC #10 would be better most years than the big 12 #2

Why would Fox kick its 2nd Conference out of the Playoff? What financial incentive is there in that?

I don't know any more than you do, it's all conjecture, but my bet is that the B1G and SEC become playoff level conferences and what's left of the Big 12 and ACC challenge the MWC and the like for an NIL level playoffs

I also believe we’re headed down that road but there is no way Oregon is excluded just because the B1G doesn’t accept Oregon right now. Nike U is far too valuable to be left out just because of a timing issue, and if it gets to that level Notre Dame will jump right in. It’s not all gloom and doom right now if Oregon doesn’t get accepted to the B1G right now. Do you really think a new NIL conference/division will want Northwestern over Oregon?

[pezsez1]

Oh come on now, that's a simple question that doesn't need inside info to deduce. There is literally no benefit to Fox and ESPN keeping their 2nd Conferences outside of the playoff. The only question will be about the # of auto-bids each conference gets in an expanded playoff.

Agreed. Denial into the B1G might mark the end of an era of Oregon football (arguable, anyway) but it isn't the end of all things as long as the Big-12 (or the Pac-??) aligns into something worthwhile.

TV money aside, parity has never been stronger in college football. You've got Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, and maybe Clemson on top, and beyond that a ton of teams are pretty much on an even playing field. A loaded-up third conference couldn't simply be disregarded without delegitimizing the sport and causing a good chunk of the country to tune out. Definitely not in the interests of Fox or ESPN.

Nike U is far too valuable to be left out just because of a timing issue, and if it gets to that level Notre Dame will jump right in.

And also this, although I'd definitely worry about short-term impacts to recruit and keep quality coaches.

[greenyellow]

Seems the Pac-12/Big 12 quasi-merger is the most likely at this point with Fox and ESPN not opening up the bank for them on their own.

Embedded Tweet

[DuckzRule]

At this rate I'm just gonna give up and accept Oregon may not go to the B1G

[squintsdd]

At this rate I'm just gonna give up and accept Oregon may not go to the B1G

Or, hear me out here, stop looking at Twitter. Nobody outside of top top tier conference brass knows anything about anything. Everything you're reading is rumors made up so that the person who posted said rumor can say "see, I told you so."

[lmduck]

I am not a JC fan per se but he does offer some words of wisdom here:

Along those lines, a gentle reminder to go slow with the speculation. I’m only sharing what I can confirm with multiple sources, but I’ve heard a bunch of wild, unsubstantiated things. I can tell you, the Pac-12 members are experiencing a swirl of emotions. They’re angry and feel misled by USC, in particular. Also, they’re simultaneously mourning the loss of the traditional Pac-12 while trying to be hopeful and jockey for new position. That comment, “George is kicking ass,” caught my eye. I’ll update here when I have more and today’s radio show will be all over this.