Coronavirus, a threat or media hype?

[maxduck]

You're missing the point of mitigation. The idea the virus will be stopped passed long ago, the goal is to slow the spread. That is the reason to curtail public gatherings and close schools. True, children are at little risk but they can spread the disease. What if they have at risk family members in their home, or that live next door?

I saw an entry from a hospital executive. His 51 member hospital group covers 8 western states including Texas. They are projecting treating 9.5 million patients from real or suspected cases. They expect to admit nearly a million into ICU. That strains the system. Where do they put the person who shows up with a heart attack? The United States decided to "go it alone" and still doesn't have accurate test kits and has rejected the WHO testing guidelines. The government is way behind where they should be in preparedness.

China introduced draconian measures, shutting down factories, curtailing travel, closing schools and only allowing essential businesses to open. The spread of the virus there has dropped dramatically. That is what the US is trying to do on a lesser scale.

[GrandpaDuck]

Maybe we wouldn't have incidents like this originating in China if they weren't such a third-world country (with first-world aspirations) eating so many wild animals with viruses and pathogens that transmit to humans. If people want to call me racist, I'm half-Chinese.

It's cultural not economic. Dog eating festivals, eating bats and civets (who themselves eat bats) in Wuhan is not out of necessity but a cultural choice. South Korea is not third world but ending the dog eating practice is difficult there where many, usually older people, regard the right to eat dogs as sacred as many Americans feel about the second amendment.

China has banned the selling and eating bats and some other wild animals, but I am sure a black market will pop up and it only takes one Hubei Hillbilly to introduce a trans-species virus into the human population.

That being said it should significantly reduce the frequency of it happening and as younger people are less into the eating of exotics, the practice should eventually die down.

[StevensTechU]

Two things are sticking out to me about this conversation.

The first is the difference between people who project things forward and people who are concerned only with what's occurred until now is a stark dividing line. I'm not sure how to bridge this gap, but it's worth noting.

Second is that, as the economic and mortality toll increases, it seems likely that both camps will continue to stand their ground. One thousand or ten thousand deaths may prove to be significant to one group and insignificant to the other. If the death toll hits 50-100k domestically, will people acknowledge that they should have understood the severity better early on when mitigation was still possible? Seems unlikely. Maybe it's not a number but rather having a family member or loved one contract or die from complications related to the virus. Who knows.

[QuackininBama]

A month from now the media will get bored and move onto something else. YAWN, nothing to see here..............

[droop10]

A big reason hospitals will be overwhelmed is due to an irrational fear spreading through people that aren't high risk to have serious complications with the disease. Unfortunately, there are a lot of idiots out there that also add onto this problem. For instance, my mom is a nurse at an ER, and she's had people come in because they ate Chinese food in recent days and thought they had Corona.

This hysteria is only amplifying people's fears, which results in the overcrowding of hospitals. People that wouldn't have been concerned and treated it as simply a cold before will now feel the need to go the hospital with minimal symptoms, simply because of all the concern plastered all over media.

I understand trying to prevent the spread to higher risk folks like senior citizens, but the level this has taken is far too extreme in my opinion.

[Tray Dub]

No, the big reason the hospitals will be overwhelmed is because of the pandemic. That has already happened in the hardest hit countries and to a lesser extent in Kirkland. The people who are worried in a stupid way are a much smaller problem than the people who are going to be seriously ill.

Look, in a few weeks we'll know who was right, but who cares about that. Even if you're a skeptic, please do some thinking about how you'll handle this if things get bad. Make plans for if you're sent home from work or school's cancelled, for what happens if you or someone in your family gets sick, for possible disruptions in supply chains that keep you from getting critical medication. Get basic supplies like nyquil and tylenol, not more than you need but not less either. If people on my side of the argument are right, time is running out to improve your situation before the wave breaks. I'm not trying to panic you but please just take care of yourselves.

[Duck07]

No, the big reason the hospitals will be overwhelmed is because of the pandemic. That has already happened in the hardest hit countries and to a lesser extent in Kirkland. The people who are worried in a stupid way are a much smaller problem than the people who are going to be seriously ill.

Look, in a few weeks we'll know who was right, but who cares about that. Even if you're a skeptic, please do some thinking about how you'll handle this if things get bad. Make plans for if you're sent home from work or school's cancelled, for what happens if you or someone in your family gets sick, for possible disruptions in supply chains that keep you from getting critical medication. Get basic supplies like nyquil and tylenol, not more than you need but not less either. If people on my side of the argument are right, time is running out to improve your situation before the wave breaks. I'm not trying to panic you but please just take care of yourselves.

"Too early" is, by definition, not "too late."

[droop10]

No, the big reason the hospitals will be overwhelmed is because of the pandemic. That has already happened in the hardest hit countries and to a lesser extent in Kirkland. The people who are worried in a stupid way are a much smaller problem than the people who are going to be seriously ill.

Look, in a few weeks we'll know who was right, but who cares about that. Even if you're a skeptic, please do some thinking about how you'll handle this if things get bad. Make plans for if you're sent home from work or school's cancelled, for what happens if you or someone in your family gets sick, for possible disruptions in supply chains that keep you from getting critical medication. Get basic supplies like nyquil and tylenol, not more than you need but not less either. If people on my side of the argument are right, time is running out to improve your situation before the wave breaks. I'm not trying to panic you but please just take care of yourselves.

We've already been sent home to work. Vegas shelves have already been cleaned out for toilet paper and water, which is silly.
However, that won't help me long term as I'm attending the Pac-12 tournament, barring a mid-tournament announcement that fans will no longer be allowed. My only concern at the moment is visiting my grandmother in Germany for her 90th bday next month. I'm not worried about getting it, but wouldn't want to pass it to her. We'll see what happens.

[GrandpaDuck]

The virus seems to spread much easier than SARS and MERS. There is a good chance it will, eventually make it through a large portion of the population unless miraculously a vaccine can be developed and distributed before that happens.

In any event, measures to slow the virus should be enacted to stall for time for the country to gear up in testing and emergency ICU development. The testing development effort is under way but seems to be error filled and clumsy but it is a tough job. Developing emergency ICU in this country seems to be not even under consideration let alone in progress. When ICU capacity becomes overwhelmed, death rate percentages will go up as is being played out in Italy.

State responses seem to be widely varied with some states way ahead of the federal response in every way, while other states are doing absolutely nothing, relying solely on a federal response.

Edit: By eventually, I mean perhaps over a couple of years. shouldnt have said "bulk" I am guessing similar to the numbers of people who got the flu in years where the annual vaccine did not include a late arriving strain like 25% or so. These are my theories and guesses, not my firm beliefs.

[Duck07]

UO just shut down classes to online only.

Here was a recent open letter from 3 prof who have been in Northern Italy for the last few months who each have quite the background to take what they say seriously.

We are three University of Oregon faculty members writing because we are in a uniquely "privileged" position to talk about the risks of COVID-19 by being based in northern Italy for the past months, where we are witnessing first hand the expansion of the infection and the Italian government's unprecedented response to try to stop the epidemic. At the same time, we have been following the UO response, and the wider state of Oregon's, and decided that we must speak out to address what we see as glaring shortcomings in the current response.

In two short weeks, we have lived through the beginning of local transmission of COVID-19 in Italy, followed quickly by an explosion of cases around us in Milan and the larger Lombardy region. Our lived experience has taught us some sobering lessons about this crisis: lives are upended with unprecedented speed; events occur in quantum leaps; government responses that seemed either courageous or draconian one day become case studies of "too little, too late" mere days later; and public opinion about the risks and how to personally respond has not kept up with the pace of the disease's spread.

Since local transmission of the disease was announced on February 22, government officials have taken strong action in consultation with respected epidemiologists, infectious disease experts, and scientists. They determined that in order to adequately respond to the virus, entire communities would need to be quarantined. What started with 11 communities and 50,000 people shifted after two weeks to a quarantine of 15 million people across most of Northern Italy.

Two days later, the Italian government implemented a nationwide ban on movement, effectively closing international borders and having individuals remain in their towns unless they show proof of the necessity to move for work, grave health concerns, or family reunification. These quarantine measures will be in place until at least April 3rd. At the same time, tens of thousands of retired doctors and nurses have been rehired. Medical schools are sending their students to work in hospitals to try to staunch the shortage of staff and to prepare for the wave of patients that will arrive in the coming weeks needing intensive care. Schools, universities and all public events–including sport, religious, and cultural events–have been cancelled for the past three weeks. While this approach may seem extreme, we see these as necessary and appropriate steps.

As the first quarantined "red zones" were established, there were fierce critics of what people called the government's over reaction. At the same time, public spaces including downtown areas, bars, restaurants, and clubs became noticeably emptier. With each passing day, as reality settled in, more and more people began following the government's guidance for less socializing of all kinds. These shifts toward safer behaviors only occurred thanks to aggressive, consistent, scientifically-accurate government messaging that didn't sugarcoat the situation. The goal was not to cause panic but to nudge people toward personal behaviors that could keep them healthy and help reduce new cases overall. Part of the challenge of this disease outbreak is not just to keep individuals healthy, but to keep communities as a whole healthy to make sure health systems and intensive care units are not overwhelmed.

While we live through this situation, we cannot help but notice the profound disconnect between the response in Italy and the response being taken by the Oregon Health Authority, the University of Oregon, and the larger community. To date, the state and the university have not recognized the seriousness of the situation. There remains only a short window of time to be proactive rather than reactive.

We recommend that the University of Oregon take in consideration three vital steps to safeguard the overall health of the community. We consider these steps as absolutely necessary based on our personal experiences living through the COVID-19 response in Italy, reinforced by the professional knowledge in the field of global health of one of us.

1. We strongly recommend that the University of Oregon shift to online classes ahead of diagnosed cases of COVID-19 in the university community or the larger Eugene area.

Because of Oregon Health Authority testing policies, it is virtually guaranteed that the number of cases in Oregon is being dramatically undercounted. Testing is currently only available for people who are sick enough to need hospitalization due to pneumonia, and people who have been in contact with confirmed positive cases. Epidemiological data from China and Italy show clearly that many cases—perhaps up to half of the total—have such light symptoms that people do not recognize they are sick and will continue with their normal activities. In one of the Italian towns (Vo) where 95% of residents were tested, the vast majority were without symptoms. Yet these cases remain contagious and can infect other individuals. Here in Italy, even with highly restrictive public health measures in place for the past two weeks, each confirmed infection is causing roughly 2.4 new cases. Moreover, hospitals here are reporting growing numbers of otherwise healthy adults under the age of 60 needing intensive care in order to recover. Assuming that most of our students, staff, and faculty are not "at risk" or "high risk" is a risky assumption to make.

Italian universities shifted entirely to online teaching at the very beginning of local transmission being detected. Top universities, such as Bocconi, based in Milan, are recommending that faculty break down lectures in short 5-10 minute videos covering specific topics, and fully utilize the chat and posting functions built in to Canvas and other platforms like G Suite. Contingency plans already delineated by the University of Oregon should be activated right away, so they are in place for the start of Spring quarter. This is also smart from a logistical perspective as advance notice to both faculty and students will allow for a smoother transition as the shift to online classes is likely inevitable.

2. All University sponsored and related travel, including study abroad programs, conference travel and invited lectures should be suspended for the foreseeable future.

In this area, the university must take cues not only from public health agencies like the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), but also other universities and public health. Despite the strong leadership of the WHO in this time, they strive to remain a largely apolitical organization on good working terms with all countries, which means they are unlikely to recommend broad travel restrictions. The CDC is also unfortunately hamstrung in their public recommendations as they are a federal agency that must follow the tone of the larger government response.

3. All University meetings and large conferences should be suspended or shifted to online platforms so people can begin to work from home without needing to be in direct contact with each other.

As much as individuals can minimize direct contact with each other—both people who are sick and those that appear healthy—it will help keep the number of new infections caused by each existing infection low. Even two weeks ago, many Italian government officials in the hardest hit areas began to shift to online meetings in order to protect themselves, their staff, and their wider communities. If governments coordinating a complex emergency can do so without meeting in person, we are certain the University of Oregon can continue to function.

COVID-19's rapid spread through Italy shows that actions that seem courageous today—the idea that the university stays open to serve its students in the midst of this difficult time—may seem foolhardy and needlessly risky when viewed just a few days later. Conditions are changing constantly in Italy, just as they did in China. It is unrealistic to assume that the United States is uniquely protected, and that what is playing out in the rest of the world will leave the US or Oregon untouched.

While we recognize that an epidemiological disaster like this one will not affect every place in the same way, now is the time to be prudent, thoughtful, and safe. The times are not normal, and the three of us are witnessing first hand the importance of timely collective action.

Melissa Graboyes, Ph.D, MPH
Associate Professor of Medical History & African History
University of Oregon

Alfredo Burlando, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Economics
University of Oregon

Eleonora Redaelli, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Planning, Public Policy, and Management
University of Oregon

[SuperDuck]

There were thousands of cases and deaths in China, and still are, though they seem to have slowed its progression.

There were over 2,300 new cases reported today alone in Italy! They have well over 100 deaths there now.

About 10 days ago I heard a doctor on TV say that it would likely double in the U.S. every two weeks. There were just over 100 cases then. There are now over 1200 confirmed cases!!!

There are likely many more infected in the U.S., as well, but many aren't even aware that they're carrying it. It may hit some people slightly, or not at all, but they can still spread it to others.

In addition, there still aren't nearly enough test kits to test everyone who may be infected. People are being told that if they don't feel well, stay at home, and that's exactly what they should be doing.

This isn't about any one individual, this is about the safety of our community. We absolutely MUST put the needs of the many ahead of ourselves.

Oh, and if you haven't educated yourself about what's happening by now and are speaking like a fool - the secret's out.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has officially declared the Coronavirus to be a pandemic. If it hasn't reached your neck of the woods yet, I can almost guarantee it will.

Everyone, please limit contact with others, try to become a "home body" for awhile, and wash your hands several times a day to help prevent infection and spreading it to others.

One more thing, if this continues as expected, there are going to be shortages of many items, including food. Scarcity drives up prices. I highly advise everyone to stock up on any items you use regularly, or that you need to survive. Price gouging is already happening online so there's no reason to expect it won't happen in our cities, as well. Local grocers may be getting gouged by suppliers themselves and have no choice but to pass on the costs.

If you have the money to buy 2-3 months or more ahead on groceries, medicine, and any other expendables, I highly suggest doing so. The value of your money may decrease exponentially if you wait. Better to buy now and know that you have what you need ahead of time.

Everyone, please be safe, please be smart, please be respectful of the welfare of others.

[SuperDuck]

Update: Tom Hanks and his wife, Rita, both just announced that they've tested positive for coronavirus. They're currently in Australia.

[Tray Dub]

And now Rudy Gobert has it and the NBA season is suspended.

[SuperDuck]

And now Rudy Gobert has it and the NBA season is suspended.

Is that the player from the Utah Jazz?

[Duck07]

And now Rudy Gobert has it and the NBA season is suspended.

Is that the player from the Utah Jazz?

Yes, the one who jokingly touched all the mics on the stand a few days ago after an interview