Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

thebootfitter wrote:

JBB wrote:No to the guy that says if Oregon does not play to their potential and NDSU does The Bison can win. If the Bison beat the Ducks no excuses.

If NDSU loses, they lose, no excuses. Oregon has purchased every advantage to win, so NDSU fans will also win some pretty impressive bragging rights.

Who said anything about excuses? There's no denying that Oregon has a much higher ceiling than NDSU. Thus, there's no denying that if Oregon plays up to their potential, they will beat NDSU. The reasons why that may happen don't matter. Those are excuses.

I guess nobody except me. I see it a little differently. As a lines maker I see NDSU a 1.5 point underdog on real comparative terms. Even after adjustment for the obvious advantages held by Oregon this game still shows The BISON very much in the running. We see Oregon -5 vs The Bison. Mythical score 26-21.

That's why it really isnt necessary for Oregon to do anything at all to lose except show up and play their game.

I know Oregon fans expect us to be oh shucks, really an honor to be here but its not like that. The only reason The Bison are glad to be traveling to Oregon is for the win. Expect a competitive game, a lot like the Montana game with the Bison providing an effective offense in place of Montanas anemic attack. The Griz were ony good for 3 but were able to stop the Ducks 5 times if memeory serves me well. Thats 5 possessions the Bison won't let slip through their hands like the Grizzlies did.

There wont be any more line changes until game week. The rest of the off season will be spent setting up the spread sheets for next year.

By the way this would be consecutive win #39 for the Herd. A milestone not many teams have ever seen.

If Ducks want to understand the Bison, here is a good read. I get it... just about a JV FCS team. Stil,l an interesting history lesson https://medium.com/sportsraid/sorry-lsu ... bd6b8eab49 Enjoy!

JBB wrote: I see it a little differently. As a lines maker I see NDSU a 1.5 point underdog on real comparative terms. Even after adjustment for the obvious advantages held by Oregon this game still shows The BISON very much in the running. We see Oregon -5 vs The Bison. Mythical score 26-21.

Oh man sign me up for this. Floyd Mayweather will dump a Million on the Ducks on either of those lines.

Oregon was SUPER vanilla against Montana. We were inefficient, I'll give you that, but we essentially just played field position game with them all night long and didn't take any chances at all for whatever reason.

Duck07 wrote:

JBB wrote: I see it a little differently. As a lines maker I see NDSU a 1.5 point underdog on real comparative terms. Even after adjustment for the obvious advantages held by Oregon this game still shows The BISON very much in the running. We see Oregon -5 vs The Bison. Mythical score 26-21.

Oh man sign me up for this. Floyd Mayweather will dump a Million on the Ducks on either of those lines.

No kidding. I not the gambling type, but I'd even put a bunch on money if the line was between 1.5 and 5 points.

From what I can gather of his metric, it’s weighted by average scoring margin etc. ..... but a 3 point win against Wisconsin is the same as a 3 point win against eastern Washington. Take it with a huge grain of salt.

It's going to be great to look at these arrogant NDSU fans, after we beat them 56-7

Because of new QB and rebuilt O line and keeping it vanilla, 32 to 13 Oregon. And I’m not trying to flame. I suspect Vegas will have the game at about 21 point spread.

UofDuck wrote:Because of new QB and rebuilt O line and keeping it vanilla, 32 to 13 Oregon. And I’m not trying to flame. I suspect Vegas will have the game at about 21 point spread.

That score sounds about right. I agree that we're going to keep it very vanilla and save our plays for ohio state. If we didn't have ohio state in the following week, we'd probably score more and have a larger margin of victory.

buckmarkduck wrote:It's going to be great to look at these arrogant NDSU fans, after we beat them 56-7

Well, see... You're guilty if going too far in the opposite direction here. I'd put $1000 on the line right now that the actual point spread will be less than 49.

I'm thinking Vegas will peg the opening lines in the ballpark of the respected computer models: around 14 points in favor of Oregon. That's probably a pretty fair line.

If Oregon beats the Bison, regardless if the score is 56-7 or 28-27, the Ducks will get nothing but congratulations and respect from the vast majority of Bison nation.

greenyellow wrote:

Duck07 wrote:

JBB wrote: I see it a little differently. As a lines maker I see NDSU a 1.5 point underdog on real comparative terms. Even after adjustment for the obvious advantages held by Oregon this game still shows The BISON very much in the running. We see Oregon -5 vs The Bison. Mythical score 26-21.

Oh man sign me up for this. Floyd Mayweather will dump a Million on the Ducks on either of those lines.

No kidding. I not the gambling type, but I'd even put a bunch on money if the line was between 1.5 and 5 points.

You will need to see the juice before you take points. Besides the closest I see the betting line get is 11. I don’t know about you but I don’t want NDSU +11 unless it’s something like 75 to win 100. People expect an Oregon romp. A live betting line is really a crowd sampling. How big will the line have to get and how attractive does the juice have to be to attract any NDSU money?

In a football proposition The juice ultimately determines value.

The GAM will guide us to a winning stake by pointing out any miss-priced propositions. All it is telling us now is the game has a very high probability of being much closer than people think. Until we have the final tweek and a live proposition from “Vegas” that’s all we know.

We will be watching the juice on points, the straight up and over/under. There may be a set of odds for each Qtr and final. Mayweather cleaned up on the first half score taking The Bison because the juice was on his side. The GAM can only guide on the final.

greenyellow wrote:

Duck07 wrote:

JBB wrote: I see it a little differently. As a lines maker I see NDSU a 1.5 point underdog on real comparative terms. Even after adjustment for the obvious advantages held by Oregon this game still shows The BISON very much in the running. We see Oregon -5 vs The Bison. Mythical score 26-21.

Oh man sign me up for this. Floyd Mayweather will dump a Million on the Ducks on either of those lines.

No kidding. I not the gambling type, but I'd even put a bunch on money if the line was between 1.5 and 5 points.

But whom would you take? In that situation, NDSU +1.5 or Oregon -1.5 you would probably see something like 80/100 for NDSU +1.5 or Oregon -1.5 for 3000/100.

It’s not uncommon to see NDSU propositions at something like 45000/100 for some weak FCS schools. I took the Bison last year to cover 41 and won because it was Bison -41, 80/100. I bet 80 and won a hundred when the Bison covered late in the fourth Qtr. The GAM showed a cover was probable. The odds made it a fair price.

The GAM, as it stands now, shows a very realistic even-up bet dollar-for-dollar would be NDSU +5. The question is how would “Vegas” price that. We may see some tremendous bargains on any of the 3 basic propositions: points, even-up and over/under.

Jabril Cox, outstanding Bison Sr. LB has entered the transfer portal. Big break of Oregon,

Looks like NDSU's top LB, Jabril Cox, is entering the transfer portal as a grad transfer. That's a big hit to their defense.

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JBB wrote:Jabril Cox, outstanding Bison Sr. LB has entered the transfer portal. Big break of Oregon,

Seems like a bigger break for NDSU fans. Now you guys have a built in excuse. It isn't like Oregon hasn't ever had to deal with a LB of his skill level before.