Pac-12/Big 10/Big 12 Realignment

[UOducksTK1]

No brainer for those schools to join the Big 12. I kinda hope they do so Oregon will be put into a situation where we'll have to join one of these mega conferences.

The less leverage Oregon has, the worse the outcome will be.

Financially yes, but as a fan who doesn't want Oregon to be stuck in a Pac-12 conference hardly better than the Mountain West conference, it is a good outcome.

[OregonFan4Life]

No brainer for those schools to join the Big 12. I kinda hope they do so Oregon will be put into a situation where we'll have to join one of these mega conferences.

The less leverage Oregon has, the worse the outcome will be.

Agreed, overall I’ve been less than impressed with how this has been handled by Mullens, Knight, and Kliavkoff.

[pezsez1]

I don't see any benefit to Oregon joining the Big-12. That conference is as much of a financial dead end as the Pac-12. We'd just have to travel farther for road games.

The Pac-12 expanding and sticking together is a better outcome than bolting to the Big-12.

[woundedknees]

In my opinion, The PAC would be better served by entering a partnership with the ACC, if it wants to survive... I.E>, a super coference with limited crossover games between an eastern and western division.

By guaranteeing a limited number of intersectional games between the two major sub-divisions, it would significantly increase the national viewing profile for both, which would offer a big change in the national perception by both viewers and PSAs.

[buckmarkduck]

I don't see any benefit to Oregon joining the Big-12. That conference is as much of a financial dead end as the Pac-12. We'd just have to travel farther for road games.

The Pac-12 expanding and sticking together is a better outcome than bolting to the Big-12.

How? Sticking with the pac/MWC isn’t a good outcome. Lanning will be gone in 3 years, we will play all away games in front of half empty stadiums, and no one will watch the games outside the conference. Lanning will be coaching in the sec, Debonner in the big 10, and any other half way decent coach will leave.

[pezsez1]

How? Sticking with the pac/MWC isn’t a good outcome. Lanning will be gone in 3 years, we will play all away games in front of half empty stadiums, and no one will watch the games outside the conference. Lanning will be coaching in the sec, Debonner in the big 10, and any other half way decent coach will leave.

You just described what likely would have happened had USC and UCLA never left.

Why join the Big-12? No revenue benefit and a tougher path to the playoff because extra traveling would put us at a massive travel disadvantage.

Pac-12 will land a deal in the same ballpark as the Big-12 and Oregon will still have better brands/ratings and an easier path to the playoff. AND we protect our own brand by not desperately running around like chickens (ducks?) with our heads cut off.

Best possible outcome would be the Pac expanding/sticking together and then forming a super conference with the ACC.

[ducks5ever]

How? Sticking with the pac/MWC isn’t a good outcome. Lanning will be gone in 3 years, we will play all away games in front of half empty stadiums, and no one will watch the games outside the conference. Lanning will be coaching in the sec, Debonner in the big 10, and any other half way decent coach will leave.

You just described what likely would have happened had USC and UCLA never left.

Why join the Big-12? No revenue benefit and a tougher path to the playoff because extra traveling would put us at a massive travel disadvantage.

Pac-12 will land a deal in the same ballpark as the Big-12 and Oregon will still have better brands/ratings and an easier path to the playoff. AND we protect our own brand by not desperately running around like chickens (ducks?) with our heads cut off.

Best possible outcome would be the Pac expanding/sticking together and then forming a super conference with the ACC.

There are 2 related issues, 1 of which was created by the departure of the Socal schools
1. can the pac12 even cobble together a half respectable tv deal?
- the answer to this isn't even known. I'd imagine it'd be pretty difficult to negotiate a half decent deal when everyone in your conference is having back door conversations about leaving. This is obviously just a rumor but the Amazon offer was around $25MM per school each year. Is that good? It's acceptable when we compare with the Big12 deal. It's not acceptable if you compare it to the sec/big10 deals

2. Even if the pac12 gets a half respectable media deal, is it in Oregon's best interest to go with it?
- the schools in the big10/sec are getting double what the acc/big 12 (and probably pac 12) get. I'm sure it's been brought up many times in this long thread but it's just a matter of time before you fall off the radar when your competitors have access to an extra $30+ million *per year*

Here's a recent article that dives into pretty much the same issues we're facing except it's the acc
https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... ney-battle

[squintsdd]

How? Sticking with the pac/MWC isn’t a good outcome. Lanning will be gone in 3 years, we will play all away games in front of half empty stadiums, and no one will watch the games outside the conference. Lanning will be coaching in the sec, Debonner in the big 10, and any other half way decent coach will leave.

You just described what likely would have happened had USC and UCLA never left.

Why join the Big-12? No revenue benefit and a tougher path to the playoff because extra traveling would put us at a massive travel disadvantage.

Pac-12 will land a deal in the same ballpark as the Big-12 and Oregon will still have better brands/ratings and an easier path to the playoff. AND we protect our own brand by not desperately running around like chickens (ducks?) with our heads cut off.

Best possible outcome would be the Pac expanding/sticking together and then forming a super conference with the ACC.

Everything I've heard and read is saying that the pac12 media deals aren't going as hoped. Having usc and ucla would help very much with landing a larger scale TV deal, without them the pac12 loses one of the largest markets in the country, along with a hit to recruiting.

The pac12/10/14 maybe, whatever you want to call it, isn't going to convince any major media groups that teams like Colorado state, or USM are worth watching

[pezsez1]

Everything I've heard and read is saying that the pac12 media deals aren't going as hoped. Having usc and ucla would help very much with landing a larger scale TV deal, without them the pac12 loses one of the largest markets in the country, along with a hit to recruiting.

While true, I also think there's a lot of leaks/spin out there and a ton of unsourced reporting. I think it's pretty obvious that the Pac won't be getting top dollar for its content, but it's content IS in demand and someone will want to pay for it. We will likely end up in the same ballpark as the Big-12, possibly either slightly above or maybe slightly worse, but close enough that jumping ship to the Big-12 wouldn't make any sense.

Also, and I can't say this enough, but we're not thinking enough about Oregon's brand. Do we really want to be the Big 10's desperate stalker or the feckless Big-12 sidler? The best (and boldest) path forward is the Pac-12 sticking together and LEADING a new super conference with the ACC.

I'll honestly be disappointed if we end up in the Big-10 because that would likely lock us out of the playoffs for a very long time. And the Big-12 would be a giant womp-womp with no real bump in revenue or prestige.

The only path with a truly positive outcome is sticking together and then buiding something new.

Also, check this out:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/espn-li ... g-hub.html

Oregon will not disappear if the Pac goes all-in on streaming. This is the future. Cable is like Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teens-ne ... 15158.html

Do not be afraid.

[UOducksTK1]

I don’t think anyone is opposed to ACC/Pac-12 conference combination.

But I think the reality of that happening is low. Better chance of ACC teams getting poached by other conferences. And I don’t want Oregon to be stuck in a glorified mountain west conference, even if that helps with proximity to road games for fans or with keeping some of our historically rivalries.

[squintsdd]

Everything I've heard and read is saying that the pac12 media deals aren't going as hoped. Having usc and ucla would help very much with landing a larger scale TV deal, without them the pac12 loses one of the largest markets in the country, along with a hit to recruiting.

While true, I also think there's a lot of leaks/spin out there and a ton of unsourced reporting. I think it's pretty obvious that the Pac won't be getting top dollar for its content, but it's content IS in demand and someone will want to pay for it. We will likely end up in the same ballpark as the Big-12, possibly either slightly above or maybe slightly worse, but close enough that jumping ship to the Big-12 wouldn't make any sense.

Also, and I can't say this enough, but we're not thinking enough about Oregon's brand. Do we really want to be the Big 10's desperate stalker or the feckless Big-12 sidler? The best (and boldest) path forward is the Pac-12 sticking together and LEADING a new super conference with the ACC.

I'll honestly be disappointed if we end up in the Big-10 because that would likely lock us out of the playoffs for a very long time. And the Big-12 would be a giant womp-womp with no real bump in revenue or prestige.

The only path with a truly positive outcome is sticking together and then buiding something new.

Also, check this out:

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/02/espn-li ... g-hub.html

Oregon will not disappear if the Pac goes all-in on streaming. This is the future. Cable is like Bruce Willis in the Sixth Sense.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teens-ne ... 15158.html

Do not be afraid.

I think Oregon fans over value the "Oregon brand". I would agree with you on that point if we were still in the Chip Kelly days, but we're not. Oregon has been a middling team for several years now. There's been success on the field but it's only been above average to good. Oregon has not tasted excellence in a long time. Oregon is a big fish in a dwindling pond, but merely slightly above average in an ocean

[pezsez1]

I think Oregon fans over value the "Oregon brand". I would agree with you on that point if we were still in the Chip Kelly days, but we're not. Oregon has been a middling team for several years now. There's been success on the field but it's only been above average to good. Oregon has not tasted excellence in a long time. Oregon is a big fish in a dwindling pond, but merely slightly above average in an ocean

Oregon's brand of innovative offense, top-notch facilities, the coolest unis, etc, existed long before Chip and it still exists today. We are Nike U. And we have a recent Rose Bowl win while constantly being in the playoff discusion. Definitely not "middling." That would be a team like UCLA or even USC until this last season.

How cool would it be to take a desperation haircut to join the Big 10, taking in less money than Minnesota for most of the next decade? Yeah, not very cool.

[buckmarkduck]

I think Oregon fans over value the "Oregon brand". I would agree with you on that point if we were still in the Chip Kelly days, but we're not. Oregon has been a middling team for several years now. There's been success on the field but it's only been above average to good. Oregon has not tasted excellence in a long time. Oregon is a big fish in a dwindling pond, but merely slightly above average in an ocean

Oregon's brand of innovative offense, top-notch facilities, the coolest unis, etc, existed long before Chip and it still exists today. We are Nike U. And we have a recent Rose Bowl win while constantly being in the playoff discusion. Definitely not "middling." That would be a team like UCLA or even USC until this last season.

How cool would it be to take a desperation haircut to join the Big 10, taking in less money than Minnesota for most of the next decade? Yeah, not very cool.

Not wanting to take that deal, and staying in the PacMW, is like saying I want the UO to be 1980s version again. UO football will be Boise St, at best, if we don’t move.

[buckmarkduck]

Cowherd said today that he was told UO/UW to the big, at 50%. For the “it’s not fair” crowd. The pac is why we are in this spot. If the conference was worth more, I’m sure the big would pony up more money.

[greenyellow]

I wouldn't believe anything Cowherd says.