OOC Schedule Comparison/Conference Comparison PAC10/SEC-2010
Posted: Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:07 am
(It's late...I'm tired...sorry for any gramme r errors)
As I have read this forum over the last month it has become evident that some of my fellow Duck fans have a skewed view of the PAC10 conference and how tough it has been in recent memory. In this post you will read the most detailed and comprehensive comparison to the conference that is widely viewed as being “dominant.”
Before I start the analysis and comparison, it is important that I go over a few things. First, some details about the perimeter of the comparison:
1) The data must be relevant. People really seem to struggle with this one! I always see people using situational stats to judge something in its entirety. Its called cherry picking and it's unacceptable for this type of comparison.
2) Relevant data must then be gathered, analyzed, and compared, with the intention of finding what the truth is. Most people just look for proof of what they want to be true.
3) Every piece of data must be viewed as a small piece of a large puzzle. Some pieces are bigger then others and some pieces affect the size of others. When finished, all the pieces will start to put together the truth. The more pieces you have, the more clear the puzzle looks.
4) Conference strength can not be defined by one team. Conference strength must include the entire conference. Some just want to look at the top 2-3 teams. However, those top 2-3 teams are viewed as “great teams” because they beat those teams that some are attempting to disguard. Conference strength means exactly what it sounds like....the whole conference.
5) While the balance of a conference can be judged by inter conference play, Conference strength cannot. At the end of each season all conferences end the season with a .500 against each other. For every win, there is a loss.
6) Rankings will be disregarded when comparing on field strength! Unless you are willing to debate that the BCS system is a great system for judging the strength of teams that have no common opponents and/or no head-to-head match ups, then rankings are completely irrelevant in that aspect. That also makes the title of the bowl games irrelevant as well. However, the teams they played in those bowls, and the level of competition of those teams is very relevant.
7) Rankings will only be referred to when showing who and how they earned and kept those rankings.
8) Only games vs. teams from BCS conference will be used in this comparison due to that fact that the SEC plays WAY more then the PAC10 did, and the PAC10 plays an extra inter conference game.
This is a list of what I consider relevant data in order to find out if last year the SEC was as dominant as they claim:
1) head-to-head match ups.
2) Common opponents
3) Similar levels of competition, the winning % vs those opponents, and margin of victory.
Well, that all being said let's get started!
The first thing I look at is similar levels of competition, meaning how the conference did vs. the other BCS conferences. If one conference is indeed “dominant” then they will have a better record and larger margin of victory. I will also look at the level of competition that was played. If one conferences has a better winning % and larger margin of victory, but faced low end teams, that must be considered. Also, since this is geared toward investigating rankings, I did not include bowl games (yet) because these teams were ranked before the bowls were played. Here are the numbers for the PAC10 and SEC OOC schedule for 2010:
· The PAC10 played 31 OOC games last season.
o 14 vs. teams from BCS AQ conferences
o 17 vs. teams from non-BCS AQ conferences (3 of which were BSU, Nevada, & TCU)
· The SEC played 48 OOC games last season.
o 16 vs. teams from BCS AQ conferences
o 32 vs. teams from non-BCS AQ conferences
What immediately stands out to me is how many more OOC games the SEC played in total and yet the SEC only played 2 more game2 against teams from BCS AQ conferences. That sends a red flag up immediately! Here is Something else that stands out:
-Out of the 14 teams the PAC10 played that were from BCS AQ conferences, 9 were from the BIG10, Big12, or SEC.
-Out of the 16 teams the SEC played that were from BCS AQ conferences, only 5 of were from the Big10, PAC10, or Big12. The rest were from the ACC and Big East
The ACC and Big E are typically the weakest conferences out of the AQ’s, and this year was certainly not an exception. Below are the records of the Big E & ACC vs BCS teams:
-The Big E was just 6-13 vs teams from BCS conferences in 2010
-The ACC was just 6-19 vs. teams from BCS conferences in 2010
This is a large part as to why SEC teams come out highly ranked and stay highly ranked throughout the season. While PAC10 teams were facing quality high profile teams in which they lost a lot of them, SEC teams were moving up the polls because outside of a few games, they schedule what appear to be guaranteed W's. They also put seasons best stats on both offense and defense because those count toward where your offense and defense rank in the nation (they look at averages) and apply that toward the ranking formula. It's smart scheduling while working in the BCS system.
Another thing the SEC does that no other conference does is schedule a cup-cake game late in the season. This benefits them in several ways:
-It's like having an extra Bye week late in the season when you player might be banged up.
-It greatly reduces the chances of potential BCS teams from losing late in the season and dropping in the ranking because of it. Remember, if any opponent drops in the rankings, your teams win does not look as good.
-While all the other conferences are going 5-5 or 6-6 (1 team wins and 1 team loses), virtually the entire SEC goes undefeated and jumps all the losing teams in the polls. It makes the top teams in the SEC look even better for beating a higher ranked team and the losses look not so bad for the same reason. Remember, late losses will kill a team in this system!
The SEC is never punished in the polls for this. That makes it smart scheduling!
As if allll that were not enough, we now get to the PAC10 9-round robin schedule. While other conferences are scheduling W's, we are guaranteed to go .500. This is not only bad for the teams that lost, it hurts the teams the won as well and it dose it for the entire season. The six teams that lost fall in the polls and now beating those six teams don't look impressive because of there dropped rankings. Also, because the PAC10 was one of the most balanced teams in the nation last year (fact), when an ASU, UCLA, CAL, or somebody like that pulled a (not so)upset, it was devastating!
Well there you have it! This is why the SEC teams come out ranked high, stay ranked high, and end ranked high...no pun...and you can't blame them. They are operating with in the rules that they were given. A wise man once said, “don't hate the player. Hate the Game.”
Now let's move onto the on the field strength comparison. Let's take from where we broke down the OOC schedules of both conferences. We have already shown beyond the shadow of any reasonable doubt that the PAC10 played a much harder schedule then the SEC last year. Lets dive back into that and take a look at how each conference did:
PAC10:
10-4 Average margin of victory-9pts-(PAC10-34pts/25pts-opponents)
SEC:
10-6 Average margin of victory 5pts.-(SEC-28/23-opponents)
Another thing that is hard to miss is who the conferences lost to:
The PAC10 losses are to Nebraska, Oklahoma St, @Wisconsin, and @Kansas St.
The SEC losses are to @Colorado, @S. Florida, Oregon, @UCON, WF, and NW.
This brings me to common opponents. There were three common consonants in 2010:
Colorado:
vs UGA-UC wins 29-27
@ Cal - Cal wins 52-7
Louisville:
vs. UK-UK wins 23-16
@ OSU-OSU wins 35-28
WF:
@ Stanford – Stanford wins 68-24
@ Vanderbilt-WF wins 34-13
Both UK and OSU ended up with around the same record as did UGA and Cal. All this shows me is that the athleticism between these two teams is VERY comparable.
WF played one of the best teams in the PAC and the worst team in the SEC. (correction: Ole Miss was the worst team in the SEC. Vandy beat them, but Ole Miss beat UK so...I don't know. I just wanted to give Vandy a little love) That game is irrelevant.
Last but not least is head-to-head matches. The only PAC10 team to face an SEC team last year was Oregon and they faced two:
@ Tennessee-Oregon wins 48-13 (worst loss of the year by Tennessee)
vs Auburn-Auburn wins 23-19
**Oregon heal Auburn to less points then any SEC defense could. The only team that held Al burn better then Oregon in yards per play and yards per rushing attempt was Alabama. Oregon also forced Auburn to throw the ball for more than 30 times all year held Cam Newton to his lowest completion % as well. Before that Auburn had only been forced to throw the ball 25 time or more in 2 games.
**Auburn returned the favor though by holding Oregon to the fewest rushing yards and the 2nd (Cal being 1st) fewest points of the entire season. Auburn also forced D. Thomas to through the ball for a season high 40 attempts. However, Thomas completed 28 (68% completion rate) of them for 378 yards (season high for him and 2nd most ever in a “NC”), 2 TD, and 2 INT's.
My personal conclusion:
The PAC10 had a better winning % against a much tougher OOC schedule, a better record vs. common opponents with a larger margin of victory as well, and they handed Tennessee their worst loss of the year before losing to Auburn by a last second FG. That FG was set up be the famous “everybody thought he was down play and Oregon destroyed the myth of “the SEC being bigger, stronger and faster” as well as the myth “they can't tackle Cam Newton..”
IMO...there is not enough data to conclude that the PAC10 is better then the SEC in Strength on the field. However, there is plenty of evidence that proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that the SEC is in no way dominant too the PAC10 last season!
(* I did not include bowl games because both conferences were .500. While this is another piece of evidence that the SEC is not “dominant” and it may shift the margin of victory a few points, it would not be enough for the SEC to claim “dominance”...plus, im tired!!)
If I forgot anything and/or left anything out, please let me know.
More fun facts:
PAC10 vs SEC over last decade: (also includes their final record by seasons end and where they finished in there conference)
2000 Sept 01: UCLA 35 (7-4/6th in PAC10) @Alabama 24 (7-5/6th in SEC)
Even match-PAC10 Wins
2001 @UCLA 20 (7-4/6th in PAC10) Alabama 17 (7-5/9th in SEC)
Fairly even match-PAC10 Wins
2002 Aug 31: @Oregon 36 (7-6/8th in PAC10) Mississippi State 13 (3-9 /12th in SEC)
2002 Sept 02: @USC 24 (11-2/2nd in PAC10) Auburn 17 (9-4/3rd in SEC)
Fairly even match-PAC10 Wins
2003 Aug 30: USC 23 (12-1/1st in PAC10) @Auburn 0(8-5/6th in SEC)
2003 Aug 30: Oregon 42 (8-5/3rd in PAC10) @Mississippi State 34(2-10/12th in SEC)
2003 Sept 06: LSU 59 (13-1/1st in SEC) @Arizona 13(2-10/10th PAC10)
2004 Sept 09: @LSU 22 (9-3/4th in the SEC) Oregon State 21(7-5/4th PAC10)
Fairly even match-SEC Wins by 1 pt
2005 Sept 09: LSU 35 (11-2/1st in the SEC) @ASU 31(7-5/5th in the PAC10)
Mismatch-LSU only wins by 4pts
2005 Sept 17: @USC 70 (12-1/1st in PAC10) Arkansas 17(4-7/9th in the SEC)
2006 Sept 02: USC 50 (11-2/1st in PAC10) @Arkansas 14(10-4/2nd in SEC)
Even match-PAC10 wins (blowout!)
2006 Sept 02: @Tennessee 35 (9-4/5th in SEC) California 18(10-3/2nd in PAC10)
Fairly even match-SEC Wins
2006 Sept 02: @Auburn 40 (11-2/3rd in SEC) Washington State 14(6-6/7th in PAC10)
2006 Sept 09: @LSU 45 (11-2/3rd in SEC) Arizona 3(6-6/6th in PAC10)
2007 Sept 01: @California 45 (7-6/7th in PAC10) Tennessee 31(10-4/2nd in SEC)
Mismatch-PAC10 Wins
2008 Sept 01: @UCLA 27 (4-8/8th in PAC10) Tennessee 24(5-7/8th in the PAC10)
Even match-PAC10 Wins
2008 Sept 20: Georgia 27 (10-3/3rd in SEC) @ASU 10(5-7/7th in PAC10)
2009 Sept 05: LSU 31 (9-4/3rd in SEC) @Washington 23(5-7/7th in PAC10)
2009 Sept 12: UCLA 19 (7-6/8th in PAC10) @Tennessee 15 (7-6/5th in SEC)
Fairly even match-PAC10 Wins
2009 Sept 26: @Georgia 20 (8-5/4th in the SEC) ASU 17(4-8/9th in PAC10)
Mismatch-SEC only wins by 3pts
2010 Sept 11: Oregon 48 (12-1/1st in PAC10) @Tennessee 13(6-7/8th in SEC)
2011 Jan 10: @Auburn 22 (13-0/1st in SEC) Oregon 19(12-1/1st in PAC10)
Even match-SEC Wins
(The PAC10 is 2-1 vs. teams that played in the SEC title game)
As I have read this forum over the last month it has become evident that some of my fellow Duck fans have a skewed view of the PAC10 conference and how tough it has been in recent memory. In this post you will read the most detailed and comprehensive comparison to the conference that is widely viewed as being “dominant.”
Before I start the analysis and comparison, it is important that I go over a few things. First, some details about the perimeter of the comparison:
1) The data must be relevant. People really seem to struggle with this one! I always see people using situational stats to judge something in its entirety. Its called cherry picking and it's unacceptable for this type of comparison.
2) Relevant data must then be gathered, analyzed, and compared, with the intention of finding what the truth is. Most people just look for proof of what they want to be true.
3) Every piece of data must be viewed as a small piece of a large puzzle. Some pieces are bigger then others and some pieces affect the size of others. When finished, all the pieces will start to put together the truth. The more pieces you have, the more clear the puzzle looks.
4) Conference strength can not be defined by one team. Conference strength must include the entire conference. Some just want to look at the top 2-3 teams. However, those top 2-3 teams are viewed as “great teams” because they beat those teams that some are attempting to disguard. Conference strength means exactly what it sounds like....the whole conference.
5) While the balance of a conference can be judged by inter conference play, Conference strength cannot. At the end of each season all conferences end the season with a .500 against each other. For every win, there is a loss.
6) Rankings will be disregarded when comparing on field strength! Unless you are willing to debate that the BCS system is a great system for judging the strength of teams that have no common opponents and/or no head-to-head match ups, then rankings are completely irrelevant in that aspect. That also makes the title of the bowl games irrelevant as well. However, the teams they played in those bowls, and the level of competition of those teams is very relevant.
7) Rankings will only be referred to when showing who and how they earned and kept those rankings.
8) Only games vs. teams from BCS conference will be used in this comparison due to that fact that the SEC plays WAY more then the PAC10 did, and the PAC10 plays an extra inter conference game.
This is a list of what I consider relevant data in order to find out if last year the SEC was as dominant as they claim:
1) head-to-head match ups.
2) Common opponents
3) Similar levels of competition, the winning % vs those opponents, and margin of victory.
Well, that all being said let's get started!
The first thing I look at is similar levels of competition, meaning how the conference did vs. the other BCS conferences. If one conference is indeed “dominant” then they will have a better record and larger margin of victory. I will also look at the level of competition that was played. If one conferences has a better winning % and larger margin of victory, but faced low end teams, that must be considered. Also, since this is geared toward investigating rankings, I did not include bowl games (yet) because these teams were ranked before the bowls were played. Here are the numbers for the PAC10 and SEC OOC schedule for 2010:
· The PAC10 played 31 OOC games last season.
o 14 vs. teams from BCS AQ conferences
o 17 vs. teams from non-BCS AQ conferences (3 of which were BSU, Nevada, & TCU)
· The SEC played 48 OOC games last season.
o 16 vs. teams from BCS AQ conferences
o 32 vs. teams from non-BCS AQ conferences
What immediately stands out to me is how many more OOC games the SEC played in total and yet the SEC only played 2 more game2 against teams from BCS AQ conferences. That sends a red flag up immediately! Here is Something else that stands out:
-Out of the 14 teams the PAC10 played that were from BCS AQ conferences, 9 were from the BIG10, Big12, or SEC.
-Out of the 16 teams the SEC played that were from BCS AQ conferences, only 5 of were from the Big10, PAC10, or Big12. The rest were from the ACC and Big East
The ACC and Big E are typically the weakest conferences out of the AQ’s, and this year was certainly not an exception. Below are the records of the Big E & ACC vs BCS teams:
-The Big E was just 6-13 vs teams from BCS conferences in 2010
-The ACC was just 6-19 vs. teams from BCS conferences in 2010
This is a large part as to why SEC teams come out highly ranked and stay highly ranked throughout the season. While PAC10 teams were facing quality high profile teams in which they lost a lot of them, SEC teams were moving up the polls because outside of a few games, they schedule what appear to be guaranteed W's. They also put seasons best stats on both offense and defense because those count toward where your offense and defense rank in the nation (they look at averages) and apply that toward the ranking formula. It's smart scheduling while working in the BCS system.
Another thing the SEC does that no other conference does is schedule a cup-cake game late in the season. This benefits them in several ways:
-It's like having an extra Bye week late in the season when you player might be banged up.
-It greatly reduces the chances of potential BCS teams from losing late in the season and dropping in the ranking because of it. Remember, if any opponent drops in the rankings, your teams win does not look as good.
-While all the other conferences are going 5-5 or 6-6 (1 team wins and 1 team loses), virtually the entire SEC goes undefeated and jumps all the losing teams in the polls. It makes the top teams in the SEC look even better for beating a higher ranked team and the losses look not so bad for the same reason. Remember, late losses will kill a team in this system!
The SEC is never punished in the polls for this. That makes it smart scheduling!
As if allll that were not enough, we now get to the PAC10 9-round robin schedule. While other conferences are scheduling W's, we are guaranteed to go .500. This is not only bad for the teams that lost, it hurts the teams the won as well and it dose it for the entire season. The six teams that lost fall in the polls and now beating those six teams don't look impressive because of there dropped rankings. Also, because the PAC10 was one of the most balanced teams in the nation last year (fact), when an ASU, UCLA, CAL, or somebody like that pulled a (not so)upset, it was devastating!
Well there you have it! This is why the SEC teams come out ranked high, stay ranked high, and end ranked high...no pun...and you can't blame them. They are operating with in the rules that they were given. A wise man once said, “don't hate the player. Hate the Game.”
Now let's move onto the on the field strength comparison. Let's take from where we broke down the OOC schedules of both conferences. We have already shown beyond the shadow of any reasonable doubt that the PAC10 played a much harder schedule then the SEC last year. Lets dive back into that and take a look at how each conference did:
PAC10:
10-4 Average margin of victory-9pts-(PAC10-34pts/25pts-opponents)
SEC:
10-6 Average margin of victory 5pts.-(SEC-28/23-opponents)
Another thing that is hard to miss is who the conferences lost to:
The PAC10 losses are to Nebraska, Oklahoma St, @Wisconsin, and @Kansas St.
The SEC losses are to @Colorado, @S. Florida, Oregon, @UCON, WF, and NW.
This brings me to common opponents. There were three common consonants in 2010:
Colorado:
vs UGA-UC wins 29-27
@ Cal - Cal wins 52-7
Louisville:
vs. UK-UK wins 23-16
@ OSU-OSU wins 35-28
WF:
@ Stanford – Stanford wins 68-24
@ Vanderbilt-WF wins 34-13
Both UK and OSU ended up with around the same record as did UGA and Cal. All this shows me is that the athleticism between these two teams is VERY comparable.
WF played one of the best teams in the PAC and the worst team in the SEC. (correction: Ole Miss was the worst team in the SEC. Vandy beat them, but Ole Miss beat UK so...I don't know. I just wanted to give Vandy a little love) That game is irrelevant.
Last but not least is head-to-head matches. The only PAC10 team to face an SEC team last year was Oregon and they faced two:
@ Tennessee-Oregon wins 48-13 (worst loss of the year by Tennessee)
vs Auburn-Auburn wins 23-19
**Oregon heal Auburn to less points then any SEC defense could. The only team that held Al burn better then Oregon in yards per play and yards per rushing attempt was Alabama. Oregon also forced Auburn to throw the ball for more than 30 times all year held Cam Newton to his lowest completion % as well. Before that Auburn had only been forced to throw the ball 25 time or more in 2 games.
**Auburn returned the favor though by holding Oregon to the fewest rushing yards and the 2nd (Cal being 1st) fewest points of the entire season. Auburn also forced D. Thomas to through the ball for a season high 40 attempts. However, Thomas completed 28 (68% completion rate) of them for 378 yards (season high for him and 2nd most ever in a “NC”), 2 TD, and 2 INT's.
My personal conclusion:
The PAC10 had a better winning % against a much tougher OOC schedule, a better record vs. common opponents with a larger margin of victory as well, and they handed Tennessee their worst loss of the year before losing to Auburn by a last second FG. That FG was set up be the famous “everybody thought he was down play and Oregon destroyed the myth of “the SEC being bigger, stronger and faster” as well as the myth “they can't tackle Cam Newton..”
IMO...there is not enough data to conclude that the PAC10 is better then the SEC in Strength on the field. However, there is plenty of evidence that proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that the SEC is in no way dominant too the PAC10 last season!
(* I did not include bowl games because both conferences were .500. While this is another piece of evidence that the SEC is not “dominant” and it may shift the margin of victory a few points, it would not be enough for the SEC to claim “dominance”...plus, im tired!!)
If I forgot anything and/or left anything out, please let me know.
More fun facts:
PAC10 vs SEC over last decade: (also includes their final record by seasons end and where they finished in there conference)
2000 Sept 01: UCLA 35 (7-4/6th in PAC10) @Alabama 24 (7-5/6th in SEC)
Even match-PAC10 Wins
2001 @UCLA 20 (7-4/6th in PAC10) Alabama 17 (7-5/9th in SEC)
Fairly even match-PAC10 Wins
2002 Aug 31: @Oregon 36 (7-6/8th in PAC10) Mississippi State 13 (3-9 /12th in SEC)
2002 Sept 02: @USC 24 (11-2/2nd in PAC10) Auburn 17 (9-4/3rd in SEC)
Fairly even match-PAC10 Wins
2003 Aug 30: USC 23 (12-1/1st in PAC10) @Auburn 0(8-5/6th in SEC)
2003 Aug 30: Oregon 42 (8-5/3rd in PAC10) @Mississippi State 34(2-10/12th in SEC)
2003 Sept 06: LSU 59 (13-1/1st in SEC) @Arizona 13(2-10/10th PAC10)
2004 Sept 09: @LSU 22 (9-3/4th in the SEC) Oregon State 21(7-5/4th PAC10)
Fairly even match-SEC Wins by 1 pt
2005 Sept 09: LSU 35 (11-2/1st in the SEC) @ASU 31(7-5/5th in the PAC10)
Mismatch-LSU only wins by 4pts
2005 Sept 17: @USC 70 (12-1/1st in PAC10) Arkansas 17(4-7/9th in the SEC)
2006 Sept 02: USC 50 (11-2/1st in PAC10) @Arkansas 14(10-4/2nd in SEC)
Even match-PAC10 wins (blowout!)
2006 Sept 02: @Tennessee 35 (9-4/5th in SEC) California 18(10-3/2nd in PAC10)
Fairly even match-SEC Wins
2006 Sept 02: @Auburn 40 (11-2/3rd in SEC) Washington State 14(6-6/7th in PAC10)
2006 Sept 09: @LSU 45 (11-2/3rd in SEC) Arizona 3(6-6/6th in PAC10)
2007 Sept 01: @California 45 (7-6/7th in PAC10) Tennessee 31(10-4/2nd in SEC)
Mismatch-PAC10 Wins
2008 Sept 01: @UCLA 27 (4-8/8th in PAC10) Tennessee 24(5-7/8th in the PAC10)
Even match-PAC10 Wins
2008 Sept 20: Georgia 27 (10-3/3rd in SEC) @ASU 10(5-7/7th in PAC10)
2009 Sept 05: LSU 31 (9-4/3rd in SEC) @Washington 23(5-7/7th in PAC10)
2009 Sept 12: UCLA 19 (7-6/8th in PAC10) @Tennessee 15 (7-6/5th in SEC)
Fairly even match-PAC10 Wins
2009 Sept 26: @Georgia 20 (8-5/4th in the SEC) ASU 17(4-8/9th in PAC10)
Mismatch-SEC only wins by 3pts
2010 Sept 11: Oregon 48 (12-1/1st in PAC10) @Tennessee 13(6-7/8th in SEC)
2011 Jan 10: @Auburn 22 (13-0/1st in SEC) Oregon 19(12-1/1st in PAC10)
Even match-SEC Wins
(The PAC10 is 2-1 vs. teams that played in the SEC title game)