How bad is the Pac-12?
Posted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:39 pm
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... -stand-ncb
The Pac-12 has been much maligned this season, and deservedly so. Since 2003, only once before has a BCS league finished outside the top six in average team Pomeroy rating -- the 2004 Pac-10 -- and there's an argument to be made that the 2012 Pac-12 is worse than that group of teams (its average team rating ranks lower). This season, the Pac-12 rates eighth in the Kenpom conference rankings, trailing the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 in addition to the other five high-major leagues.
This is how the league breaks down: There is one definite tournament team, the California Golden Bears, whose best win (according to RPI) is at the No. 55 Oregon Ducks. Oregon, the Washington Huskies and Arizona Wildcats are all on the bubble. The Stanford Cardinal, Colorado Buffaloes and UCLA Bruins could probably fight their way onto the bubble with exceptional finishes, but after them it really gets ugly.
The bubble
Bubble teams sorted by average of BPI and RPI. Teams in bold are outside of projected bracket, per Joe Lunardi.
Team BPI RPI RPI SOS
1. Texas 22 51 29
2. Seton Hall 45 34 33
3. Northwestern 46 37 7
4. Miami (FL) 43 44 32
5. Arizona 32 69 89
6. St. Joseph's 56 46 55
7. Xavier 50 54 52
8. Colorado State 79 29 13
9. Washington 55 57 73
10. UCF 60 56 102
11. NC State 58 59 39
12. Oregon 67 55 78
13. South Florida 77 49 40
14. Minnesota 57 71 58
15. Cincinnati 51 80 125
16. VCU 61 74 217
The tournament profiles of the Washington State Cougars and Oregon State Beavers are awful, and those of the Arizona State Sun Devils and USC Trojans are really awful. The Utah Utes are historically awful.
The league's best three nonconference wins, by RPI: Stanford at home against No. 29 Colorado State; Stanford at home against No. 55 North Carolina State; and Arizona at No. 67 New Mexico State. Yes, this is true.
Once conference play began, the only true quality wins to be had in the conference were against Cal, and even those could hardly be referred to as impressive -- Cal's best nonconference win was versus Weber State at home, even if its only losses came against Missouri on a neutral court and on the road against UNLV and San Diego State.
For those reasons, the Pac-12 is an extraordinarily tough league to judge since nearly all of the teams' best performances came against each other. And it's tempting to both give those performances more credit ("fulfillment of potential") or less credit ("the nonconference season taught us that those wins were meaningless") than they probably deserve.
Regardless, the Pac-12 is a league looking at multiple bids, like all seven conferences ranked above it and the three (Missouri Valley, C-USA barring a Memphis collapse, West Coast) below it. Currently, Joe Lunardi has Washington and Arizona joining the Golden Bears in the Big Dance, with Oregon and the eight stragglers missing out. Let's take a quick look the Huskies, Wildcats and Ducks in more detail.
• Washington entered league play at a disappointing 6-5, but it's a 6-5 that looks exponentially more understandable in retrospect. Close neutral-court losses to Duke and Marquette were understandable (if not downright impressive) at the time. But Saint Louis has gone from intriguing mid-major, capable of finishing third in the Atlantic 10, to automatic NCAA tournament team ranked No. 11 by Ken Pomeroy and No. 22 in ESPN's BPI (explained here). A road loss to the Billikens is no embarrassment. A home loss by 20 to South Dakota State is still pretty ugly, but the Jackrabbits are 22-7 and serious contenders in a Summit League that's better than usual. And a road loss to Nevada sounded a lot worse when the Wolf Pack were sitting at 5-3 than it does now that they're 22-5.
Washington is now 12-3 in the conference, having taken care of all the truly bad league teams. It also played Cal to the wire and has beaten Arizona twice. If the Huskies want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday, they should win their final three regular-season games, but if they win two of three and take a game in the Pac-12 tournament, the Huskies should sneak in. And don't tell anyone, but they'd be taking three former top-30 recruits into that first-round NCAA matchup against a single-digit seed.
• Arizona is in a similar situation. Those two early-season losses to Mississippi State and San Diego State don't sound so bad anymore, do they? After that, their only losses came against Florida (on the road), Gonzaga (in Seattle) and league foes. They even won at Cal.
Their high BPI (No. 32) suggests the Wildcats are good enough to hang with most of the teams they'd run into in the NCAAs, and their relatively easy remaining schedule means that they should be able to avoid some of the résumé-tainting losses their bubble rivals will have trouble avoiding. With three wins to end the regular season and one to start the conference tournament, Arizona is probably in as well.
• BPI says that Oregon (No. 67) might be in more trouble. But the worrisome early losses for the Ducks look less worrisome, too: A loss to Festus Ezeli-less Vanderbilt was mostly understood at the time, but it also turned out that BYU and Virginia are much better than expected this season. Not to mention the Ducks made due without Devoe Joseph (16.3 ppg) in those losses to BYU and Vandy. The Ducks' remaining games are at Oregon State and at home against Colorado and Utah -- all winnable matchups.
The Pac-12 will get two or three teams into the NCAA tournament outside of Cal. If one of these three bubble teams falters in an easy game down the stretch, it will be in deep trouble. Conversely, if somebody makes a deep conference tournament run, it will be in good shape. It's then that we'll find out for sure how good or bad the 2012 Pac-12 really is.
The Pac-12 has been much maligned this season, and deservedly so. Since 2003, only once before has a BCS league finished outside the top six in average team Pomeroy rating -- the 2004 Pac-10 -- and there's an argument to be made that the 2012 Pac-12 is worse than that group of teams (its average team rating ranks lower). This season, the Pac-12 rates eighth in the Kenpom conference rankings, trailing the Mountain West and Atlantic 10 in addition to the other five high-major leagues.
This is how the league breaks down: There is one definite tournament team, the California Golden Bears, whose best win (according to RPI) is at the No. 55 Oregon Ducks. Oregon, the Washington Huskies and Arizona Wildcats are all on the bubble. The Stanford Cardinal, Colorado Buffaloes and UCLA Bruins could probably fight their way onto the bubble with exceptional finishes, but after them it really gets ugly.
The bubble
Bubble teams sorted by average of BPI and RPI. Teams in bold are outside of projected bracket, per Joe Lunardi.
Team BPI RPI RPI SOS
1. Texas 22 51 29
2. Seton Hall 45 34 33
3. Northwestern 46 37 7
4. Miami (FL) 43 44 32
5. Arizona 32 69 89
6. St. Joseph's 56 46 55
7. Xavier 50 54 52
8. Colorado State 79 29 13
9. Washington 55 57 73
10. UCF 60 56 102
11. NC State 58 59 39
12. Oregon 67 55 78
13. South Florida 77 49 40
14. Minnesota 57 71 58
15. Cincinnati 51 80 125
16. VCU 61 74 217
The tournament profiles of the Washington State Cougars and Oregon State Beavers are awful, and those of the Arizona State Sun Devils and USC Trojans are really awful. The Utah Utes are historically awful.
The league's best three nonconference wins, by RPI: Stanford at home against No. 29 Colorado State; Stanford at home against No. 55 North Carolina State; and Arizona at No. 67 New Mexico State. Yes, this is true.
Once conference play began, the only true quality wins to be had in the conference were against Cal, and even those could hardly be referred to as impressive -- Cal's best nonconference win was versus Weber State at home, even if its only losses came against Missouri on a neutral court and on the road against UNLV and San Diego State.
For those reasons, the Pac-12 is an extraordinarily tough league to judge since nearly all of the teams' best performances came against each other. And it's tempting to both give those performances more credit ("fulfillment of potential") or less credit ("the nonconference season taught us that those wins were meaningless") than they probably deserve.
Regardless, the Pac-12 is a league looking at multiple bids, like all seven conferences ranked above it and the three (Missouri Valley, C-USA barring a Memphis collapse, West Coast) below it. Currently, Joe Lunardi has Washington and Arizona joining the Golden Bears in the Big Dance, with Oregon and the eight stragglers missing out. Let's take a quick look the Huskies, Wildcats and Ducks in more detail.
• Washington entered league play at a disappointing 6-5, but it's a 6-5 that looks exponentially more understandable in retrospect. Close neutral-court losses to Duke and Marquette were understandable (if not downright impressive) at the time. But Saint Louis has gone from intriguing mid-major, capable of finishing third in the Atlantic 10, to automatic NCAA tournament team ranked No. 11 by Ken Pomeroy and No. 22 in ESPN's BPI (explained here). A road loss to the Billikens is no embarrassment. A home loss by 20 to South Dakota State is still pretty ugly, but the Jackrabbits are 22-7 and serious contenders in a Summit League that's better than usual. And a road loss to Nevada sounded a lot worse when the Wolf Pack were sitting at 5-3 than it does now that they're 22-5.
Washington is now 12-3 in the conference, having taken care of all the truly bad league teams. It also played Cal to the wire and has beaten Arizona twice. If the Huskies want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday, they should win their final three regular-season games, but if they win two of three and take a game in the Pac-12 tournament, the Huskies should sneak in. And don't tell anyone, but they'd be taking three former top-30 recruits into that first-round NCAA matchup against a single-digit seed.
• Arizona is in a similar situation. Those two early-season losses to Mississippi State and San Diego State don't sound so bad anymore, do they? After that, their only losses came against Florida (on the road), Gonzaga (in Seattle) and league foes. They even won at Cal.
Their high BPI (No. 32) suggests the Wildcats are good enough to hang with most of the teams they'd run into in the NCAAs, and their relatively easy remaining schedule means that they should be able to avoid some of the résumé-tainting losses their bubble rivals will have trouble avoiding. With three wins to end the regular season and one to start the conference tournament, Arizona is probably in as well.
• BPI says that Oregon (No. 67) might be in more trouble. But the worrisome early losses for the Ducks look less worrisome, too: A loss to Festus Ezeli-less Vanderbilt was mostly understood at the time, but it also turned out that BYU and Virginia are much better than expected this season. Not to mention the Ducks made due without Devoe Joseph (16.3 ppg) in those losses to BYU and Vandy. The Ducks' remaining games are at Oregon State and at home against Colorado and Utah -- all winnable matchups.
The Pac-12 will get two or three teams into the NCAA tournament outside of Cal. If one of these three bubble teams falters in an easy game down the stretch, it will be in deep trouble. Conversely, if somebody makes a deep conference tournament run, it will be in good shape. It's then that we'll find out for sure how good or bad the 2012 Pac-12 really is.