Ducks Attack Message Board Forum

Someone explain why they are in the majority of projections right now? They've beat two teams with less than 10 losses:
Michigan State (Big win) and Stony Brook.

They have 11 losses, and are 7-9 in conference play. They've played 9 top 25 teams, and they win one of them, so we give them the automatic push over a 20-8 Oregon team, because of their lone win over MSU?

Someone elaborate.

(BTW it's even far more humorous that Minnesota is still in discussion, smh..)

northwestern has played one of the strongest schedules in the country, they have an RPI in the 40s, and they play in one of the best conferences in the country.

i'm not saying they do or do not deserve to get in. i'm just saying, that's the argument for inclusion.

just to play devil's advocate, our record is three games better than theirs is (20-8 to 17-11), but they've played the #12 SOS to our #81. they're #43 in the rpi to our #53. michigan state may be their one really, really good win, but we don't have any top 50 wins. they've also won @ Seton Hall, who is a top 50 team. our best win is washington (#52), our second best win is @ arizona (#67). northwestern has a couple more wins comparable in strength to arizona.

look at it this way: in '08, we got into the tournament at 18-13. not a great record, but our SOS was awesome and we had some really good wins, and our rpi reflected that. northwestern's 17-11 record isn't amazing, but their SOS is awesome and they have some really good wins, and their rpi reflects that.

oregontrack wrote:northwestern has played one of the strongest schedules in the country, they have an RPI in the 40s, and they play in one of the best conferences in the country.

i'm not saying they do or do not deserve to get in. i'm just saying, that's the argument for inclusion.

just to play devil's advocate, our record is three games better than theirs is (20-8 to 17-11), but they've played the #12 SOS to our #81. they're #43 in the rpi to our #53. michigan state may be their one really, really good win, but we don't have any top 50 wins. they've also won @ Seton Hall, who is a top 50 team. our best win is washington (#52), our second best win is @ arizona (#67). northwestern has a couple more wins comparable in strength to arizona.

look at it this way: in '08, we got into the tournament at 18-13. not a great record, but our SOS was awesome and we had some really good wins, and our rpi reflected that. northwestern's 17-11 record isn't amazing, but their SOS is awesome and they have some really good wins, and their rpi reflects that.

I guess that's the part that bothers me. Other than beating MSU, I don't see any good wins.. I mean, at the end of the day, we may have beaten more NCAA tournament teams than Northwestern.

if northwestern doesn't have any good wins, then we REALLY don't have any good wins. northwestern has a better resume than us, knocking their wins makes us look bad by extension.

we have no top 50 wins, they have two. i'm not sure if you skipped over the part where i mentioned seton hall, but that's a better win than anything we have, and that's not even northwestern's signature win. their signature win is against the #4 team in the country, ours the #52.

they have SIX top 100 wins, we have two. stanford inexplicably losing to utah was a nut shot to our resume.

oregontrack wrote:if northwestern doesn't have any good wins, then we REALLY don't have any good wins. northwestern has a better resume than us, knocking their wins makes us look bad by extension.

we have no top 50 wins, they have two. i'm not sure if you skipped over the part where i mentioned seton hall, but that's a better win than anything we have, and that's not even northwestern's signature win. their signature win is against the #4 team in the country, ours the #52.

they have SIX top 100 wins, we have two. stanford inexplicably losing to utah was a nut shot to our resume.

Last I checked, Arizona and Washington are projected to be in. MSU and Seton Hall are NW's only wins over projected tournament teams too.

Yeah they have better wins, but does that completely negate our 3 game lead over them? I don't think so honestly.

Additionally, they've lost to a couple bad teams, whereas Oregon's only poor loss has been to OSU.

UOducksTK1 wrote:Last I checked, Arizona and Washington are projected to be in. MSU and Seton Hall are NW's only wins over projected tournament teams too.

that may or may not end up being true, but even if you're right, that stat by itself is not used by the committee as much as a blanketed w/l record against top 100 teams. there are good teams that don't make the 68-team field, the committee looks at those. and northwestern is kicking our ass in the quality win department.

Yeah they have better wins, but does that completely negate our 3 game lead over them? I don't think so honestly.

they have played the #12 schedule in the country, and that's not even taking into consideration their wednesday game against a top 10 ohio state, and any of the ranked big 10 teams they'll meet in their conference tourney. it'll likely be a top 10 SOS at season's end. ask yourself this: would oregon be 17-11 playing northwestern's schedule? ehhhh.... probably not. SOS is everything. a 3 game lead in the W/L department when northwestern has played MUCH, MUCH stronger competition isn't much... at all. again, 2008: we were 18-13 and got a #8 seed (i think? #9? whatever). georgia got in the tourney a couple years back by going 16-14 because they had the #1 SOS in the country.

Additionally, they've lost to a couple bad teams, whereas Oregon's only poor loss has been to OSU.

northwestern has NO bad losses. oregon state is about 30 spots lower in the rpi than northwestern's worst loss. northwestern has lost to no one outside the top 100.

honestly, you're picking on the wrong team.

oregontrack wrote:

UOducksTK1 wrote:Last I checked, Arizona and Washington are projected to be in. MSU and Seton Hall are NW's only wins over projected tournament teams too.

that may or may not end up being true, but even if you're right, that stat by itself is not used by the committee as much as a blanketed w/l record against top 100 teams. there are good teams that don't make the 68-team field, the committee looks at those. and northwestern is kicking our ass in the quality win department.

Yeah they have better wins, but does that completely negate our 3 game lead over them? I don't think so honestly.

they have played the #12 schedule in the country, and that's not even taking into consideration their wednesday game against a top 10 ohio state, and any of the ranked big 10 teams they'll meet in their conference tourney. it'll likely be a top 10 SOS at season's end. ask yourself this: would oregon be 17-11 playing northwestern's schedule? ehhhh.... probably not. SOS is everything. a 3 game lead in the W/L department when northwestern has played MUCH, MUCH stronger competition isn't much... at all. again, 2008: we were 18-13 and got a #8 seed (i think? #9? whatever). georgia got in the tourney a couple years back by going 16-14 because they had the #1 SOS in the country.

Additionally, they've lost to a couple bad teams, whereas Oregon's only poor loss has been to OSU.

northwestern has NO bad losses. oregon state is about 30 spots lower in the rpi than northwestern's worst loss. northwestern has lost to no one outside the top 100.

honestly, you're picking on the wrong team.

Apparently... Fair enough, not going to argue the first two points. I feel like they are also getting hyped up because they've never made it to an NCAA tournament before.

Also, I retract them losing to a "couple" bad teams. I keep thinking that they lost to Penn State, but I was wrong. However, their loss to Minnesota by 25 points is pretty dang horrible.

In addition, they have only 3 road wins all year. Oregon has 7 (including a team from Northwestern's conference!!).

Just saying, you act as if I'm going overboard with trying to point out Oregon should get the nod of Northwestern. But there's a lot more than SOS and a win over MSU. My 2 cents at least. Pretty sure Oregon would beat one top 25 team after 9 tries. Just curious, track, if it comes down to your unbiased opinion, would you put NW over Oregon?

And after they lose to Ohio State and they are 17-12 and Oregon is 21-8 (assuming they beat Colorado), do you still think NW > UO for the tournament?

yes. i would put in northwestern over oregon, easily.

i think oregon is an ncaa tournament team. we're on the bubble, certainly, but i think we get in. northwestern is a sure thing. as long as neither of throws up all over ourselves, of course. there's still season to be played.

if you want a team that's getting more ncaa love than us, for no apparent reason, it's arizona. while they have a slightly better signature win (@ #35 cal), we have the stronger sos, the stronger rpi, the head to head win IN tucson, and will finish better in the same damn conference (assuming we sweep next week), but it seems like every projection i see has the cats sneaking in and we're in much murkier water.

From an unbiased standpoint, I have to agree with track. Northwestern has a stronger resume. The Big 10 is very good this year and the Pac 12 is terrible. If NW loses to both Ohio State AND Iowa, then they don't deserve to make it.

The sad thing, is that I could see Arizona getting in, instead of Oregon, just because they are a name program, despite having a lower RPI and losing the head to head matchup. They do have one decent OOC win (NMSU) to Oregon's 0. Oregon probably should have scheduled at least one more game against a decent opponent. However, I don't think anyone could have predicted that the conference would be this bad this year.

oregontrack wrote:yes. i would put in northwestern over oregon, easily.

i think oregon is an ncaa tournament team. we're on the bubble, certainly, but i think we get in. northwestern is a sure thing. as long as neither of throws up all over ourselves, of course. there's still season to be played.

if you want a team that's getting more ncaa love than us, for no apparent reason, it's arizona. while they have a slightly better signature win (@ #35 cal), we have the stronger sos, the stronger rpi, the head to head win IN tucson, and will finish better in the same damn conference (assuming we sweep next week), but it seems like every projection i see has the cats sneaking in and we're in much murkier water.

Great minds think alike

SOS or not, it's a joke if Northwestern gets in. A losing record in conference play shouldn't get you in. And I don't care how good your conference is, being in 8th place or whatever they are in shouldn't get you in either. The pac-12 is still a major conference, even if the league is having a poor year.

duckgrad99 wrote:SOS or not, it's a joke if Northwestern gets in. A losing record in conference play shouldn't get you in. And I don't care how good your conference is, being in 8th place or whatever they are in shouldn't get you in either. The pac-12 is still a major conference, even if the league is having a poor year.

it's not a joke. the numbers support northwestern. some of these arguments are fairly antiquated; hell, just last year uconn went .500 in the big east and finished in 9th place, then won the national championship. i'm not saying, you know, that northwestern deserves a top 6 seed or anything, but their body of work at this moment in time clearly shows that they belong. there's not a team in the pac-12 that would be 17-11 right now playing northwestern's schedule.

oregontrack wrote:

duckgrad99 wrote:SOS or not, it's a joke if Northwestern gets in. A losing record in conference play shouldn't get you in. And I don't care how good your conference is, being in 8th place or whatever they are in shouldn't get you in either. The pac-12 is still a major conference, even if the league is having a poor year.

it's not a joke. the numbers support northwestern. some of these arguments are fairly antiquated; hell, just last year uconn went .500 in the big east and finished in 9th place, then won the national championship. i'm not saying, you know, that northwestern deserves a top 6 seed or anything, but their body of work at this moment in time clearly shows that they belong. there's not a team in the pac-12 that would be 17-11 right now playing northwestern's schedule.

Normally, I'd try and defend the Pac 12 in these situations, but there's just no defending it. The reason we won't make it, if we don't, is because our conference has been trash for 3 years now, and I doubt that changes in the near future. The problem now is the conference has been so bad for so long, that no amount of good teams will ever change the east coast media's perception of the conference.

Eksynyt wrote:Normally, I'd try and defend the Pac 12 in these situations, but there's just no defending it. The reason we won't make it, if we don't, is because our conference has been trash for 3 years now, and I doubt that changes in the near future. The problem now is the conference has been so bad for so long, that no amount of good teams will ever change the east coast media's perception of the conference.

You are embellishing what it would take for our conference to be perceived as good again. It isn't east coast bias in this instance, it has everything to do with the Pac-12 getting beat up against quality non-conference opponents. The conference has to start winning against top 50 opponents in non-conference, and then this dip in perception will cease.