In 10,000 simulations the winner is......

[nehalem]

Boise St. 52.3% of the time, by an average score of 27 to 25. All of this is according to What If Sports.com as interviewed this AM on 95.5. He did say this was about as even as a game could get and weighted the outcomes to Boise St. because of home field advantage and ever so slight advantages on the lines because of experience. At least we cover the spread under his scenario.

[nehalem]

And the link is:
http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondthebo ... 09CFBWEEK1

[tonyd]

Sports.com needs to fix their system.

[nehalem]

I agree. The director I listened to sounded alot like Phil Steele when supporting his simulations. Steele's questions about Oregon (head coach, lines, depth, special teams, youth) are unknowable until the season plays out. I think from his experience, that many questions translate into loses. But with the exception of head coaching and maybe special teams, Boise has the same questions.

[Greydrake]

old adage, bad data in,...bad data out.

Go Ducks

[TualatinDuck]

Actually if you scroll down and see the outcome standings, Oregon is given the win. The really bad part is it also credits losses to Purdue and Cal.

[nehalem]

I think your misreading it. Both in the "game of the week" paragraph and the list of all games for the week; he has Oregon losing.

[TualatinDuck]

Scroll down to the standings.

[withamjd]

I can't believe Boise St. holds Oregon under 30 points, much less the 25 the sims estimate.

Away games for 2008 for recent context:
Purdue 32 in OT
WSU 63
USC 10
ASU 54
Cal 10
OS 65
Ok St 42

Boise most comparable to which team in that line-up?
Forget USC.
Purdue with Roper/Harper. No.
Forget WSU on the other end.
Cal in monsoon conditions. Weather won't be factor and does Boise's scheme or defensive team compare to Cal? No.

That leaves a group of ASU,OS, and Ok St. avg points scored 53.67.

I don't have advanced math or computer skills, but let's talk real world observation.
I assert that Oregon's offense will be similar to 08.
Also that Boise is athletically similar to a group that gave up an average of nearly 54 points per game to Oregon on the road.
My take is that past real world results are great predictors of future real world results.

More to consider. Possession to scores in those 3 games.
ASU 15 pos-9 scores
OS 16 pos-11 scores
Ok St 16 pos-6 scores

Toss in the Boise game
16 pos-5 scores

My prediction:

16 pos-5 scores worst case
31 points by Oregon as a minimum.
Off the cuff prediction 42 points.

No idea about O defense vs Boise offense.

If Oregon has its full team in play for 4 quarters;
Oregon 42
Boise St 37

[wheaton4prez]

old adage, bad data in,...bad data out.

Go Ducks

Nail on the head. Or, as I've heard it, "garbage in equals garbage out."

10,000 simulations? 10 trillion simulations won't be an improvement if you don't know what you're looking at in the first place.

Child please!