No feeling quite like it when they say " The Bison are in Victory formation!"
Its also fun when they say "We are now broadcasting from inside the Fabulous Fargo Dome!"
Game day anybody? Could be in Eugene 2 weeks in a row. They love the match-up. Doesn't everybody? This one is going coast-to-coast.
TIP TO LOCAL TICKET HOLDERS: Hang on they are going up.
I dont know what will happen when these teams line-up nobody does. One thing is clear: The Gam Analyzer Mechanism (GAM) has been running the monte carlos to determine the probable outcome.
At the finish, with no adjustments for strength of schedule or home field it's clear the Bison are better against the FCS than Oregon is against the FBS.
Using cumulative 2019 season statistics: The GAM forecasts: Bison 29.0104 Oregon 23.520. That's 5 points. It has been flashing that for a while now. If both teams have their day NDSU wins by 5. Over/Under is 53. Bison 29-24
But what about adjustments? They play in a weaker league, dont have near the money, don't have the talent, speed, size etc.
Home field you say? NDSU has won at University of Kansas, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Iowa, Minnesota. They also beat the defending MAC champs the Chippewas wherever they play ball. 8-0 for the FCS Championship in Frisco, TX. No home field.
Talent/athleticism/physicality: see above. No adjustment
Inflated Bison statistics because of inferior/weaker opponents:
- Oregon played a boat load of inferior opponents at home.
Margin of victory 28 pts.
Biggest win 77-6 vs Nevada
Ducks beat Montana by 32. AZ by 28.
- NDSU is better than Montana.
Before they were eliminated from the FCS playoffs Bison were -9 vs Grizzlies.
Arizona is 83 by Sagarin, NDSU 31.
Giving NDSU any more points than 28/32 would attract a lot of wagers.
Oregon lost to Arizona State 31-28
- Arizona State is 37 in Sagarin.
Bison 31.
Right now The GAM in it's early monte-carlo runs has NDSU -3.5 vs Oregon; O/U is 46; Mythical score NDSU BISON 25.8764 - 21.9155.
This is a rock solid analysis. It can only be upended by the unexpected, the Swans both black and white, "Any Given Saturday" and probably a couple other intangibles. All football forecasting is. Watch the odds. Be very careful, Las Vegas et al are very good, very very good.
Just remember you saw it here first: Take the Bison and the points.
THE EARLY LINE:
JANUARY 15, 2020
GAM PUBLISHING
MONTE CARLO
NDSU @ OREGON: NDSU -3.5; O/U 46 ; NDSU O/U 25; OREGON O/U 21
LATEST TAILGATE RUMOR: Wisconsin vs. NDSU at TCF BANK STADIUM in Minneapolis. It would be a sell-out.