Lottery Pick = Max Contract?

[Oregon Ownage]

If you pick in the lottery, what are the chances you land an elite player?

Surely there has be a 50% chance of getting a player that you would commit max money to for the long haul, right?

I looked back at the past five drafts to see what percentage of selecting in the lottery will get you a "max" player.

Editors Note: If a player would be valued as a max player on the open market, I put a yes towards this equation. Example: Ewing wants to resign for considerably less than his value but if he were a FA this off-season, he would get multiple max offers. Hakeem also resigned for slightly less than max but he is a max player in this calculation.

Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Conclusions:
Of the 65 players selected in the lottery, 27 were considered max candidates (41.54%). The '84 draft is brings up the percentage as that draft had 8 players get max contracts, the most from the past five drafts.

The player selected the latest in the lottery to receive a max contract was Trent Tucker (12th in the '82 draft). Roberto Brunamonti was selected 11th in the '81 draft with those two players the only players selected after the 9th pick (in the lottery) to get a max contract. Jazz know how to pick late in the lottery it seems.

Every #1 pick has been worth a max contract so getting the draft lottery luck is essential. The 2nd pick has hit at 4/5 times which is a nice consolation. After that, things get dicey.

3rd - 2/5
4th - 3/5
5th - 3/5
6th - 3/5
7th - 2/5
8th - 2/5
9th - 1/5
10th - 0/5
11th - 1/5
12th - 1/5
13th - 0/5

7th pick onwards, it is a crapshoot unless you are the Jazz. If you only look at the top 6, you have a 20/30 (66%) chance of getting a max contract player.

If you are picking in the top 6, you have a great chance of getting a max player, after that, it is a different story. Teams in the draft lottery this season, you are hoping for a top 6 pick.

[Oregon Ownage]

Clearly people are not interested in draft information

[Craig]

So tanking sucks if you don't get the #1 or #2 pick lol

[Oregon Ownage]

So tanking sucks if you don't get the #1 or #2 pick lol

I would say top 6 as you have a 60% chance of getting a quality player

The 3rd pick has had the same luck as the 7th and 8th picks which is quite interesting

[Craig]

So tanking sucks if you don't get the #1 or #2 pick lol

I would say top 6 as you have a 60% chance of getting a quality player

The 3rd pick has had the same luck as the 7th and 8th picks which is quite interesting

F***ing Detlef lol

[bellsduck]

It's true.
I've hit on quite a few late-ish picks recently

[lukeyrid13]

I don't like this article. Points out that I shouldn't have picked Willis and 4 max players went right after him lol

[offtheheezy]

Ah, Detlef

[lukeyrid13]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

[offtheheezy]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

He defied expectations the most of every draft pick. A true star in his own way.

[lukeyrid13]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

He defied expectations the most of every draft pick. A true star in his own way.

He offered to re-sign for the minimum this year and was rejected. That is epic levels of bust

[Cellar-door]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

I think Benjamin would have been the pick for a lot of team, but that was the consensus top 4 I'd say.

[offtheheezy]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

I think Benjamin would have been the pick for a lot of team, but that was the consensus top 4 I'd say.

yeah. Benjamin and Schrempf was who I was choosing between, but I thought Schrempf had the higher upside based off notes although he was riskier.

MUCH riskier apparently

[UOducksTK1]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

I think Benjamin would have been the pick for a lot of team, but that was the consensus top 4 I'd say.

Right. I feel like I would have taken Benjamin if I were 3. But that's also easy to say in hindsight.

[offtheheezy]

To be fair, I think he was the consensus 3rd pick if any GM had that slot. He just busted in a tremendous fashion

I think Benjamin would have been the pick for a lot of team, but that was the consensus top 4 I'd say.

Right. I feel like I would have taken Benjamin if I were 3. But that's also easy to say in hindsight.

I think I overindexed on "Amazing raw" which I take to be have horrible ratings but good athleticism to Detlef who had "Amazing", already good offensive notes, and supposedly had lower athleticism which I hoped meant his ratings were cosmetically deflated.

Too much thinking , should've went with the 21 year old