Staying put is neither stable or good for the iveralll health of the program. The pac 12 will basically become a glorified MWC, and treated even worse than we are now.
The Pac-12 will be on exactly the same footing as the ACC and the Big-12, and with an actual path to the playoff each year despite our horrid in-conference gauntlet. Things will be better going forward, not worse.
Going to the Big 10 right now isn't an option, and going to the Big-12 makes zero sense.
Staying put is neither stable or good for the iveralll health of the program. The pac 12 will basically become a glorified MWC, and treated even worse than we are now.
The Pac-12 will be on exactly the same footing as the ACC and the Big-12, and with an actual path to the playoff each year despite our horrid in-conference gauntlet. Things will be better going forward, not worse.
Going to the Big 10 right now isn't an option, and going to the Big-12 makes zero sense.
Agree. The PAC has whatever the length of the tv deal is to get their s*** together and remain a conference. Winning cures all, and losing is the source of the current troubles. Win more big non conference games, get more teams in the playoffs and win some games there, and of course best of all win a NC. That happens and the next contract will probably be enough to keep the league alive.
Staying put is neither stable or good for the iveralll health of the program. The pac 12 will basically become a glorified MWC, and treated even worse than we are now.
The Pac-12 will be on exactly the same footing as the ACC and the Big-12, and with an actual path to the playoff each year despite our horrid in-conference gauntlet. Things will be better going forward, not worse.
Going to the Big 10 right now isn't an option, and going to the Big-12 makes zero sense.
The vocal minority continues to express their opinion. Being the Boise State of the west coast isn’t in Oregon’s best interest.
webfoots2001 wrote:The vocal minority continues to express their opinion. Being the Boise State of the west coast isn’t in Oregon’s best interest.
As a huge fan of minority opinions, I object. First, I don't think it is the minority opinion - all the remaining AD's seem on board with it, at any rate. Second, I don't think anyone is in love with any of Oregon's options at the moment. It's a pragmatic discussion, and we ought not stifle organic thoughts here. If the Big 10 offered, then we would have something to argue about, but they didn't. So it's either stay in the weakened-but-not-dead conference, or capitulate and join the also-weakened Big 12, whose teams the PAC could have had for the asking only a few years ago, and they politely declined. Looking at the choices on the table, it really seems like if they can land a decent TV deal (e.g. similar to Big 12 numbers), the burden would be on anyone trying to argue for leaving. I'm not seeing it, personally. I think the stronger conference is wherever Oregon and Washington go.
webfoots2001 wrote:The vocal minority continues to express their opinion. Being the Boise State of the west coast isn’t in Oregon’s best interest.
As a huge fan of minority opinions, I object. First, I don't think it is the minority opinion - all the remaining AD's seem on board with it, at any rate. Second, I don't think anyone is in love with any of Oregon's options at the moment. It's a pragmatic discussion, and we ought not stifle organic thoughts here. If the Big 10 offered, then we would have something to argue about, but they didn't. So it's either stay in the weakened-but-not-dead conference, or capitulate and join the also-weakened Big 12, whose teams the PAC could have had for the asking only a few years ago, and they politely declined. Looking at the choices on the table, it really seems like if they can land a decent TV deal (e.g. similar to Big 12 numbers), the burden would be on anyone trying to argue for leaving. I'm not seeing it, personally. I think the stronger conference is wherever Oregon and Washington go.
I think it makes little sense to jump to the Big12 when there will likely be another round of super-conference expansion in 2030. My comment to DuckZRule was about staying in the PacX over joining the Big10 if they were offered.
At this point it would almost seem like a no-brainer to jump to the Big 10 if a real offer were on the table. That said, there would still be factors worth considering.
Oregon really doesn't need to worry about the $$$ as long as Uncle Phil is alive and kicking. And perhaps Oregon won't need to worry about this for some time after, depending on whatever arrangements he might have made for when he passes. Point being that money may not have to be such a driving force right now as it was for UCLA (and not sure about USC's finances).
Also, under the upcoming playoff format, Oregon's path to the CFP is absolutely more clear through the Pac than the Big 10. That has to be a factor, too.
Reasons for joining the Big 10 = more guaranteed $$$ and exposure over time -- both huge perks. But with the tradeoff of tougher travel schedules, more losses, and even less access to the CFP.
If the Pac-12 can cobble together a solid media deal now (at least on par with the Big 12) then I'll be thankful we didn't get that invite. As another poster said, that would give the Pac another 5-6 years to get its **** together and position itself to evolve without dying off. Or, maybe over that time period, we do get a Big-10 offer alongside Washington and then we can make the jump under more favorable circumstances. (I definitely don't like the talk of "taking a haircut" in order to cling to the Big 10 right now.)
pezsez1 wrote:Oregon really doesn't need to worry about the $$$ as long as Uncle Phil is alive and kicking. And perhaps Oregon won't need to worry about this for some time after, depending on whatever arrangements he might have made for when he passes.
Has PK ever subsidized the football program to the tune of $50-75 million a year? Because that will be the difference between the PAC-12 and the B1G/SEC TV contracts. I keep seeing this argument being used without any evidence that PK has or ever will be willing to pour that type of money straight into the football program.
As much as Oregon needs to be in the Big Ten to stick with the other CFP contenders financially, it's just not in the cards at the moment. Oregon can survive being in the new Pac-10/12/14 for next few years until realignment starts up again in 2028-2030.
Has PK ever subsidized the football program to the tune of $50-75 million a year?
No, but he doesn't need to. He's done enough to bolster the Oregon brand which, in turn, has helped us churn out one of the nation's premier NIL collectives. His investments in facilities have paid dividends and will continue to do so.
Also, keep in mind that added travel expenses would consume a large portion of that added revenue. The actual numbers (if we started getting B1G money now) would be a flat $20 mil extra starting in year #1 and up to $50 mil extra by the end of the run. Still a huge number, but not quite as astronomical when considering the burden of added travel expenses.
We can survive until 2030 just fine while figuring out the next step. This isn't doomsday.
Has PK ever subsidized the football program to the tune of $50-75 million a year?
No, but he doesn't need to. He's done enough to bolster the Oregon brand which, in turn, has helped us churn out one of the nation's premier NIL collectives. His investments in facilities have paid dividends and will continue to do so.
Also, keep in mind that added travel expenses would consume a large portion of that added revenue. The actual numbers (if we started getting B1G money now) would be a flat $20 mil extra starting in year #1 and up to $50 mil extra by the end of the run. Still a huge number, but not quite as astronomical when considering the burden of added travel expenses.
We can survive until 2030 just fine while figuring out the next step. This isn't doomsday.
That’s a good point about travel expenses but it’s still a small dent in what will be a huge financial gap over time. And again, I don’t find any evidence that PK will actually make up that gap in a tangible way. A few new building isn’t going to cut it, especially considering many of the schools in the B1G and SEC have donors already doing the same thing, on top of the TV money.
We can survive a few years but by 2030 we’ll be way behind the top of college football.
We've been doing more with less for decades now thanks in large part to Uncle Phil's strategic contributions to the University and the football program. We're not talking just "a few new buildings." We're talking state-of-the-art facilities that reinforce our brand while also putting some NFL facilities to shame.
Oregon remains the gold standard in terms of football facilities and infrastructure. No other program can match us, and we're still building strong.
Now we're also in that "gold standard" category for NIL money. Get us on ESPN, throw in some streaming and our exposure won't be any worse than it already was. Might actually be better with so many young people more invested in streaming than cable.
We'll be fine until 2030. Heck, maybe we'll even absorb the Big-12 when the next chance to do so rolls around.
That’s a level of optimism that’s just out of touch with reality.
Every top program in CFB has incredible facilities now; Oregon has an edge still but the gap is small and shrinking every year. Due in large part to the already sizable gap in TV money between us and the B1G & SEC. As that gap grows our advantages will continue to shrink. Same goes for NIL.
In that 7 year window you propose, those programs will make hundreds of millions of dollars more than us from their TV deals alone. Being slightly ahead of the game in facilities and something in its infancy like NIL is not a very compelling counter to a $350-400M revenue gap.
But we're not "slightly ahead." We are leaps and bounds ahead of most of the country and we're still building. Everyone else is still catching up. If they had all of that extra cash in hand, then sure, maybe they could build their brains out and catch up by 2030, but even that is doubtful. Facilities like we have take years of planning, they don't just plop down like Sim City.
We are easily safe until 2030. The only thing we really need to worry about (assuming our media deal is on par with the Big 12 and ACC) is losing coaches between now and then. Honestly, though, I'm not overly worried about that. There are only so many openings each year and there are so many candidates to choose from between the Pac, ACC, Big-12 and NFL. It's not realistic to believe we'll be burning through coaches every 2-3 years unless we see astronomical success -- and, if we're being real, that would be the case regardless.
Oregon has enough security to retain its strength and its brand through at least 2030 -- longer than that if our NIL operation thrives after PK eventually passes. NIL matters far more than coaching salaries and it's not going anywhere.
I worry that in 5-10 years time, the B1G and SEC will be able to offer coaches, position coaches, and analysts and GAs 2-3x that of what the PAC teams can match.
The best at each coaching position would be attracted to those numbers and only use the PAC as a stepping stone to get promoted back into those conferences. (Already kind of feels like that)
